2024 Week 1 trophy update

The defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines are also the holders of College Football's Greatest Trophy. Michigan faces Fresno State Saturday night in defense of the Trophy.

• Michigan took ownership of the Trophy from Washington in the Championship game in Houston
• This is M's 9th time as trophy holder
  
• This will be their first Trophy defense since the 2003 season ended with a Rose Bowl loss to USC
• Since that loss, M has lost 3 times to arch rival Ohio State with a chance to take the Trophy (2006, 2018 and 2019)
  
• M is 26-27-1 in Trophy games  
• A win Saturday night would break a 3-way tie for 15th and move M ahead of Baylor and UCLA 
• Next up would be Auburn with 31 wins (34-18-2)
  
• Their 27 losses in Trophy games is 4th highest all-time, behind Penn (59-39-5), Wesleyan (0-30) and Harvard (88-28-5)
• Fresno State is 1-2 all time in Trophy games
• Their lone victory came over the San Diego Marines in September of 1932
• The lost the following game to West Coast Army and did not play for the Trophy again until falling to USC in November of 2005 in a shootout 50-42

Michigan - Fresno State 2024

Michigan 36

Fresno State 12

M vs Fresno State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 254-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

Fresno State will be the 73rd school I have seen M play and the 77th team I have seen play overall – 

M is 57-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 39-6 in the first attended game of the season
M is 97-23 vs non-conference opponents
M is 9-1 vs the American Athletic conference
M is 6-2 vs schools from California
M is 15-4 vs schools from the pacific time zone
M is 166-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 8-2 vs teams with canine based nicknames
M is 186-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 6-2 when ranked #9
M is 4-0 on August 31
M is 245-62-1 on Saturday
M is 210-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 8-0 after consecutive (attended) games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 25-6 in night games
M is 5-1 when their head coach is in his first (full head coaching) game

It's easy when you look at the data

M 35

California State University at Fresno 10

2024 M Football Season Prediction

8/31 Fresno State W

9/7 Texas, L

9/14 Arkansas St W

9/21 USC W

9/28 Minnesota W

10/5 @ Washington W

10/19 @ Illinos W

10/26 MSU W 

11/2 Oregon W

11/9 @ Indiana W

11/23 Northwestern W

11/30 @ OSU L

12/7 M loses coin flip and does not qualify for B1G Championship game

12/21 LSU W

12/31 Clemson W

1/9 OSU W

1/20 Georgia L

14-3 National Runner up

Season Prediction 2024

8-4, win in bowl game