M vs Texas in the Cirus Bowl Prediction

"Lesser" Bowl games have become increasingly difficult to predict, add to it that Michigan has an interim head coach, a one game only OC, a DC who is most definitely out the door, and the promise of "how excited we are for this games plan" and "the practices have been great."

Do we get a "Last Game of the Lloyd Carr era" unexpected bump or no one really wants to be here 2018 Peach Bowl?🤷

 M 23

Texas 21 

 

Quick Trophy update - I'm tempted to strip Notre Dame of the Trophy because they we too "proud" to play in the Pop Tar Bowl... but they will carry the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy into the 2026 season.

Michigan vs Ohio State prediction based on historical data 2025

Michigan is 268-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 11-10 vs Ohio State
M is 222-46-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 7-2 in the 10th attended game of the season
M is 126-27-1 in noon or 12:30 (eastern) kicks
M is 167-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 8-2 when ranked 15th
M is 11-12 vs opponents ranked in the top 5 (0-6 vs opponents ranked #1)
M is 103-26 vs schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 13-14 vs teams with mascots outside of  kingdom animalia classification
M is 21-11 vs schools from Ohio (teams from Ohio are 12-21 in all games I have attended)
M is 9-2 vs schools from the “home” state of the sitting vice president
M is 2-0 vs Ohio State when I have been in Washington DC within a week of the game
M is 44-7 in all attended games since I last saw them lose to Ohio State. This is the best 51 game stretch in my attendance history, M was 43-8 in my first 51 games.

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end

M 17
OSU 31

Michigan at Maryland prediction based on histoical data (2025)

Michigan is 267-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 7-1 vs Maryland
M is 45-25 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 11-8 in the 9th attended game of the season
M is 3-1 in 4 or 4:30 (eastern) kicks
M is 166-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 8-1 when ranked 18th
M is 197-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 102-26 vs schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 10-3 vs schools with reptilian mascots
M is 2-1 on November 22 (0-1 vs Maryland)
M is 39-6 vs schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 15-10 the first time Melissa sees M play in a particular stadium

It’s easy when you look at the data 

M 28
Maryland 17

Michigan vs Northwestern (at Wrigley) prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 266-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 17-3 vs Northwestern (as the 21st time I will be seeing Northwestern, they will move into a tie with Ohio State and Minnesota as the teams I have seen the 3rd most, and tie OSU as M’s second most commonly seen opponent)
M is 44-25 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 17-4 in the central time zone
M is 31-6-1 vs all schools from Illinois
M is 1-0 in MLB baseball stadiums (Wrigley Field will be the 32nd venue in which I have seen M play)
M is 21-2 against teams they scored 50 or more points against in their previous meeting
M is 18-6 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 125-27-1 in noon or 12:30 (eastern) kicks
M is 165-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 7-1 when ranked 18th
M is 196-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 101-26 vs. schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 39-5 vs teams with cat-based mascots (I am counting Cincinnati since they are the bearCATS)
M is 0-2 on November 15
M is 282-30-1 on natural turf
M is 48-17 in traveling trophy* games (bowl or championship trophies are not included here)

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 21
Northwestern 10

  

*Cal defeated Louisville last weekend and now hold the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy 

Michigan - Purdue prediction based on historical data 2025

Michigan is 265-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 12-3 vs Purdue (Purdue is 4-12 in all games I have attended)
M is 221-46-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 43-7 vs all schools from Indiana
M is 23-10 in the 7th attended game of the season
M is 29-7 in night games
M is 164-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 3-1 when ranked 21st
M is 195-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 164-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed HEAVIER than a Wolverine
M is 4-1 on November 1
M is 1-0 vs teams coached by Barry Odom, 4-1 vs all coaches named Barry
M is 15-4 when their QB is making is 7th start
M is 183-41 on artificial turf

It’s easy when you look at the data 

M 35
Purdue 10

Follow up from last week, the attendance at Spartan Stadium was 75,085, this ranks 15^th out of the 16 games I have attended there, only the 2023 Michigan game had lower attendance.

M vs MSU prediction based on Historical data (2025)

Michigan is 264-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 21-11 vs Michigan State (MSU is 12-21 in all games I have attended)
M is 8-6 at Spartan Stadium (MSU is 7-8 in all games I have attended at Spartan Stadium)
M is 35-11 vs all schools from Michigan
M is 28-9-1 in the 6th attended game of the season
M is 28-7 in night games
M is 163-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 4-0 when ranked 25th
M is 194-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 163-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed HEAVIER than a Wolverine
M is 221-51-1 when playing in a stadium named for one of the teams
M is 2-2 on October 25 (0-2 vs MSU)
M is 255-66-1 on Saturday
M is 43-22 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 27-12 when facing a team for the 3rd consecutive season
M is 5-0 vs teams coached by John L or Jonathan Smith
M is 20-2 in games following consecutive games against teams with coaches whose last names begin with the same letter

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 34
MSU 17

M vs Washington prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 263-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-1 vs Washington
M is 6-1 vs all schools from Washington
M is 29-10 in the 5th attended game of the season
M is 124-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 162-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 39-23 when unranked
M is 193-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 162-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed HEAVIER than a Wolverine
M is 11-3 vs schools with canine based nicknames
M is 219-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 on October 18
M is 254-66-1 on Saturday
M is 42-22 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 26-12 when facing a team for the 3rd consecutive season
M is 14-4 vs schools whose head coach has Animal or Water related names
M is 10-2 vs schools whose head coach was a one-time Michigan assistant coach

It’s easy when you look at the data  

M 27

W 25

 

M at USC prediction based on old video

We looked into going out to LA for this match-up, but it couldn't justify the cost for such a quick trip. Although M and USC have met 8 times in the Rose Bowl, this will be only the second time they have faced off in the LA Coliseum.

M took down a pretty disappointing USC squad in 1957 by the score of 16-6. Even in black and white, M looks good in their classic road uniforms with the iconic Coliseum facade in the background.

But before moving to the play their home games in the Rose bowl, UCLA also used to call the Coliseum home. So M has played an additional game there, facing the Bruins in 1972. Michigan again prevailed 26-9.

I think it will be closer than either of these previous contests, but M still prevails...

M 27

USC 24 

Michigan vs Wisconsin prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 262-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 11-2 vs Wisconsin

• Discounting UCLA – since M hasn’t played them in conference yet – Wisconsin is the conference school I have seen least recently. I’ve seen M play 32 conference opponents since M last faced Wisconsin (28-4 in those games)

M is 31-8 in the 4th attended game of the season
M is 43-7 on homecoming (41-7 on Michigan’s homecoming)
M is 123-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 161-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 8-0 when ranked 20th
M is 192-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 100-26 vs. schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 218-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 0-2 on October 4
M is 253-66-1 on Saturday
M is 0-0 against Head coaches coaching their 3rd different team against Michigan

• Fickell will break a tie with 10 other coaches that have led 2 schools against
• M is 30-10 against 2 school coaches
• Counting Brady Hoke (M and Ball State), M is 56-21 

 

Is easy when you look at the data 

M 35

W 10 

M at Nebraska prediction based on feeling overdressed

As head coach, Biff Poggi wore a shirt with sleeves and long pants at Warde Manuel's request.

Normally a sleeveless shirt and shorts guy, Poggi says he felt "wrapped like a mummy." And if it been any warmer, "clothes would have been coming off."

📷: Bryan Fuller / MGoBlog pic.twitter.com/qwEHidRzNH

— Alejandro Zúñiga (@ByAZuniga) September 15, 2025

 

Interim coach Biff Poggi is typically a shorts and sleeveless guy. He'll be overdressed again Saturday afternoon in Lincoln. 

Lots of questions about both teams, really.

Is the Michigan offense really opened up for good? Or was that a "make them have to practice against it" sort of game?

Can the M defensive line create pressure against a power 4 O-line? 

Does M have a better plan for the 3-3-5 - TCU-like defense Nebraska employs?

Can M have a game with no special teams mistakes?

Let's go with: Yes, No, Yes, Yes 

 M 24 Nebraska 23 

M vs CMU post based on historical data

Michigan is 261-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-0 vs Central Michigan (CMU is 0-5 in all games I have attended)
M is 37-2 in the third attended game of the season
M is 122-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 100-25 vs non-conference opponents
M is 3-2 when ranked 23rd
M is 25-1 vs. teams in the MAC
M is 34-11 vs teams from Michigan
M is 173-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 217-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 on September 13
M is 252-66-1 on Saturday
M is 5-0 with an interim head coach
M is 13-4 vs teams with a head coach that has a last name that makes one think of a frat party
M is 23-3 in the QB’s 3rd start

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 39

CMU 7 

M vs Oklahoma prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 261-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated) 

 

This will be the 20th state I have seen M play a game in – 22nd state for college football over all

 

M is 60-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 31-7 in the second attended game of the season
M is 28-6 in night games
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 8-1 when ranked 15th
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked 18th
M is 8-5 vs. teams in the SEC
M is 1-0 vs teams from Oklahoma
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 172-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-21 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 29-14 in true road games
M is 16-7 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-11 – when including the same stadium with a new name)
M is 4-0 in Memorial Stadiums (Michigan Stadium and probably others are technically Memorial stadiums, but it’s not in the recognized name)
M is 4-1 when their head coach attended the school they are competing against
M is 2-0 on September 6
M is 252-65-1 on Saturday


It’s easy when you look at the data (but I hope I'm wrong)

M 20

Oklahoma 26 

 

 

M vs New Mexico prediction based on historical data

 

Michigan is 260-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
 

This will be my 50th season attending Michigan football games!

M is 59-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 43-6 in the first attended game of the season
M is 28-3 with a starting QB in his first start
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 10-0 when ranked 14th
M is 10-1 vs. teams in the Mountain West
M is 12-3 vs teams whose head coach has a 3-letter last name
M is 29-5 the first time facing a team from a particular state
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 171-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 216-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-1 on August 30
M is 251-65-1 on Saturday
M is 10-3 vs schools with canine based nicknames
 

It’s easy when you look at the data 

M 48

New Mexico 6
 

A very late "too early prediction" for 2025

vs New Mexico W
@ Oklahoma L
vs Central Michigan W
@ Nebraska W
vs Wisconsin W
@ USC W
vs Washington W
@ Michigan State W
vs Purdue W
@ Northwestern W
@ Maryland W
vs Ohio State L 

Michigan, 10-2, 8-1, does not make the conference championship game, but makes the playoff as the 8th seed.

M hosts the #9 seeded LSU Tigers W

Then faces #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl L 

M at OSU prediction

Things have not gone as well as I would have liked for Michigan this year... 

M 10

OSU 42

M vs Northwestern based on historical data

Michigan is 259-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 16-3 vs Northwestern
M is 30-6-1 vs all schools from Illinois
M is 10-8 in the 9th attended game of the season
M is 160-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 170-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 215-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 on November 23
M is 250-65-1 on Saturday
M is 37-5 vs schools with feline based nicknames (or that include the cat in their nickname)
M is 46-17 in traveling trophy games (bowl or championship trophies are not included here)

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 28
N’western 13

Michigan vs Indiana prediction based on end of times

I used to post about how few people have actually seen Michigan lose to Indiana. Even the loss in 2020, was not seen by many people in person...

But that changes this week - a full crowd and a large tv crowd will witness it tomorrow

M 21

IU 38

M vs Oregon prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 259-69-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 0-1 vs Oregon
M is 2-1 vs all schools from Oregon
M is 18-5 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 160-45-1 vs conference opponents
M is 89-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 215-48 in Michigan Stadium
M is 0-5 vs teams ranked #1 – this is the first time M is facing the number 1 team while they are unranked
M is 3-1 on November 2
M is 250-64-1 on Saturday
M is 34-5 vs schools with bird based nicknames

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 17
Oregon 34

M vs MSU prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 258-69-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 20-11 vs. MSU - the Spartans are 12-20 in all games I have attended

M is 4-0 against head coaches names John Smith or Jon Smith

I ran out of time this week...

It's easy when you look at the data

M 14

MSU 13

M at Washington Prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 258-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-0 vs Washington
M is 6-0 vs all schools from Washington
M is 28-8-1 in the 6th attended game of the season
M is 159-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 169-48-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 16-6 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-10 – when including the same stadium with a new name)

• Husky Stadium in Seattle will be the furthest west and furthest north of any game I have attended (passing the Rose Bowl in Pasadena and what was TCF Stadium in Minneapolis, respectively)

M is 21-11 in their first attended game away from Michigan Stadium of the season
M is 5-4 when ranked #10
M is 3-1 on October 5
M is 249-63-1 on Saturday
M is 41-21 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 10-2 vs schools with canine based nicknames
M is 3-0 in local 4 or 4:30 starts

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 20
UW 24

Interesting note – the last 9 times M has given up exactly 24 points they have won – including the past two weeks. (9-3 all-time while giving up 24 points)