M vs Washington prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 263-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-1 vs Washington
M is 6-1 vs all schools from Washington
M is 29-10 in the 5th attended game of the season
M is 124-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 162-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 39-23 when unranked
M is 193-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 162-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed HEAVIER than a Wolverine
M is 11-3 vs schools with canine based nicknames
M is 219-49-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 on October 18
M is 254-66-1 on Saturday
M is 42-22 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 26-12 when facing a team for the 3rd consecutive season
M is 14-4 vs schools whose head coach has Animal or Water related names
M is 10-2 vs schools whose head coach was a one-time Michigan assistant coach

It’s easy when you look at the data  

M 27

W 25

 

M at Washington Prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 258-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-0 vs Washington
M is 6-0 vs all schools from Washington
M is 28-8-1 in the 6th attended game of the season
M is 159-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 169-48-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 16-6 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-10 – when including the same stadium with a new name)

• Husky Stadium in Seattle will be the furthest west and furthest north of any game I have attended (passing the Rose Bowl in Pasadena and what was TCF Stadium in Minneapolis, respectively)

M is 21-11 in their first attended game away from Michigan Stadium of the season
M is 5-4 when ranked #10
M is 3-1 on October 5
M is 249-63-1 on Saturday
M is 41-21 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 10-2 vs schools with canine based nicknames
M is 3-0 in local 4 or 4:30 starts

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 20
UW 24

Interesting note – the last 9 times M has given up exactly 24 points they have won – including the past two weeks. (9-3 all-time while giving up 24 points)

 

CFP Championship prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 253-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 14-4 vs schools from the Pacific time zone
M is  14-3 playing in the central time zone
M is 9-5 in January
M is 96-23 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 7-2 vs teams with canine nicknames
M is 10-6 vs. schools from the Pac 10 or Pac 12
M is 2-0 vs Washington
M is 5-0 vs all schools from Washington
M is 42-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 1-1 in games played in Texas
M is 7-7 west of the Mississippi River
M is 10-10 in stadiums that have hosted the Super Bowl
M is 7-6 in NFL stadiums
M is 171-39 on artificial turf
M is  5-3 in domes
M is 2-2 when playing for their 12th consecutive attended win
M is 165-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 76-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 7-1 vs teams with head coaches that have more than one capital letter in their last name
M football is 53-6-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 91-42 vs ranked opponents
M is 4-1 when ranked #1
M is 4-2 vs teams ranked #2
M is 14-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site
M is 3-1 on Monday
M is 129-44 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance
M is 24-6 in night games
M football and M hockey 2-0 when playing for a National Championship

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 35

Washington 21

Huskies bring Trophy to CFP Championship

Washington and Michigan will be facing off Monday night for College Football's Greatest Trophy and the College Football Playoff Championship Trophy as well!

• The Huskies have rattled off 17 consecutive wins after taking the Trophy from Oregon last November.
• The last 17 game trophy holder win streak was Ohio State from November of 2018 until they lost in the CFP Semifinal vs. Clemson in 2019
• The most recent streak to go beyond 17 was USC with 25, from the 2004 Rose Bowl over Michigan to the 2006 Rose Bowl loss to Texas
• The longest trophy holding streaks are: 
1. Yale 36 (1891-1893)
   
2. Miami (Fl) 31 (2000-2002)
3. Yale 29 (1888-1889) 
4. Princeton 25 (1879-1882)
   
5. Harvard 25 (1912-1915)
   
6. USC 25 (2004-2006)
7. Yale 24 (1882-1885)
   
8. Pennsylvania 24 (1894-1896)
   
9. USC 24 (1978-1980)
10. Harvard 23 (1898-1900)
    
11. Army 21 (1948-1950)
    
12. Mississippi 19 (1959-1961)
13. Pennsylvania 18 (1897-1898)
    
14. Tennessee 18 (1938-1939)
• Michigan's longest streak is 8 games in 1972
• The Wolverines last held the Trophy in 2003 and have a 25-27-1 record in Trophy games
• Washington's record now stands at 45-23 in Trophy games

One of these two schools will carry the Trophy into the new Big Ten next season

 Go Blue!

Washington takes the Trophy to the CFP

The winner of this year's College Football Playoff trophy, will also take with them the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Washington has been on quite a run. The Huskies has ripped off 16 straight wins since taking the Trophy from Oregon in November of 2022. This is their 11th time as holders of the Trophy.

• Washington is no 44-23 all-time in Trophy games
• This will be the 15th time the Sugar Bowl has hosted a Trophy game
• The team coming in the with Trophy is 12-2 in these match-ups
• Texas is 10-10 in Trophy games and is a 4-time Trophy holder
• The Longhorns went on a 4 game win streak after defeating Alabama in the 1965 Orange Bowl before losing to Arkansas
  
• Texas had a 2 game run at the end of the 1998 season carrying the Trophy through the 1999 Cotton Bowl before getting upset by NC State in the BCA Classic
  
• They ended USC's long run in the amazing 2006 Rose Bowl - BCS national championship game and won their opener of the 2006 season before falling to the Buckeyes
• Their last win was over Oklahoma State in 2008
• Most recent loss was last year to Washington in the Alamo Bowl

One of these schools will carry the Trophy into the Championship game and face either Michigan or Alabama.

• Michigan is 25-27-1 in Trophy games and are 9-time Trophy holders
• Alabama is 64-22 in Trophy games and has won the Trophy 11 times
   

Trophy update moving into week 11

 The Washington Huskies continue their reign as holders of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy

UW beat USC in a high scoring match-up 52-42. Washington hosts Utah this week in another tough game.

• Washington is now 40-23 in Trophy games
• USC falls to 89-18-8
• Utah goes into Saturday with a 2-2 record in Trophy games
• They defeated Colorado State in October of 1994 in their first ever chance for the Trophy. The Utes won again the next week over UTEP, before falling to New Mexico in early November
• Their only other chance was a 1996 loss to Trophy-holder and arch-rival BYU
• After Utah the Huskies travel to Oregon State  and then close the regular season in hopefully not the final Apple Cup with Wazoo.
• If they continue to hold the trophy they end up in a likely rematch with Oregon for the conference championship with the winner likely playoff bound
  
• Utah travels to Arizona and hosts Colorado to close out the conference schedule. Even with a winning all 3 games they would likely need help to make the conference championship game.

It would seem the quickest path to bringing the Trophy to the Big Ten is for Washington to win out and either face and lose to a current conference team in the playoffs or win the championship and join the conference as Trophy-Holder next season. 

Michigan travels to Washington on October 5, 2024

Week 8 Trophy Update

Washington won a back-and-forth battle with Oregon to maintain control of College Football's Greatest Trophy!

Washington faces Arizona State this Saturday. The Sun Devils are 10-9 in Trophy games. Their last win came in November of 1995, their 4th time as trophy holder. ASU has only had 2 chances to win the Trophy since, losing to USC in both 2004 and 2005.

The UW win marked their 37th victory in Trophy games, moving them past Army and alone into 11th place. The Huskies need 6 more wins to tie Miami (Fl) for 10th.

Most wins in Trophy Games

1. Yale 129
2. Princeton 101
3. USC 89
4. Harvard 88
5. Ohio State 70
6. Alabama 64
7. Pennsylvania 59
8. Mississippi 45
9. Tennessee 44
10. Miami (FL) 43
11. Washington 37
12. Army 36

Most losses in Trophy Games

1. Pennsylvania 39
2. Wesleyan 30
3. Harvard 28
4. Michigan 27
5. Washington 23
6. 5-way tie Alabama, Florida, Penn State, Rutgers, Tennessee 22

Most times as trophy holder

1. USC 13
2. Tie - Alabama, Washington 11
3. Harvard 10
4. 5-way tie Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Princeton, UCLA
5. Tie - LSU, Notre Dame

 

Week 7 Trophy Update

The Trophy Holding Washington Huskies had a bye week last week and will face Oregon this Saturday with The jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy on the line once again.

• Washington started this run with the Trophy by knocking off the Ducks last November 37-34
• UW is seeking it's 9th straight win - this is already their longest run with the Trophy
• The Huskies are 36-23 in Trophy games and this is their 11th time as Trophy-holder
• Oregon has only been the Trophy-holder that one time and has an overall record of 7-18-1
• The PNW teams have met 4 times in Trophy games with UW winning each time

It seems likely The Trophy will end the regular season in the PAC-12. 

Week 3 2023 Trophy update

Washington continues to hold onto the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. The Huskies are 2-0 to open the 2023 season, bringing their string of Trophy victories to 6 straight.

They face the Mel Tucker-less Michigan State Spartans this Saturday in East Lansing. This is the first chance for a (Current) B1G team to compete for the Trophy since Ohio State lost to Alabama in the National Championship game from 2021.

• The Huskies are now 33-23 in Trophy games
• This is their 11th time as Trophy-holder
• The Spartans come into the game Saturday with a 5-14 record in Trophy games
• The last time MSU held the Trophy was in 2018
• They took the Trophy from Purdue, won the following game against Maryland before losing to Ohio State
• They also lost to the Buckeyes in 2019 in a battle for the Trophy

This is the final non-conference game for the Huskies.

 

Remember the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Washington takes on Texas tonight in the Alamo Bowl - but more importantly, the winner will take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy into 2023.

• Washington is 30-23 in Trophy games
• The Huskies are on their 11th run as Trophy holders
  
• Texas is 10-9 in Trophy games
• The Longhorns are 4 time Trophy-holders 
• Texas last won the Trophy in 2008, with a victory over Oklahoma State
• They lost the following game to Texas Tech and have followed that with 4 consecutive challenger losses
• Most recently losing to TCU in 2015.
• This is the second time the Alamo Bowl has hosted the Trophy match-up
• TCU beat Oregon in 3 overtimes in January of 2016
• If The Huskies hold on to the Trophy they have their 2023 non-conference schedule posted 
• 9/2 vs Boise State
• 9/9 vs Tulsa
• 9/16 at Michigan State
• Texas alo has their 2023 non-conference games listed:
• 9/2 vs Rice
• 9/9 at Alabama
• 9/16 vs Wyoming
  

Regular season ends for the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Washington defeated cross-state rival Washington State in the Apple Cup 53-31 Saturday night to hold onto the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

The Huskies are not going to the Pac-12 championship game, so they await their bowl fate. The majority of the "experts" project them facing the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl. This would require, at least, Michigan and USC winning their respective conference title games and making the playoffs, not too much of a stretch. A Michigan loss would put Purdue in the Rose Bowl, but shouldn't affect Washington.

Wherever the Huskies end up, their game with be the 1600th match-up in the history of the Trophy.

• The Huskies move to 30-23 all-time in Trophy games
• Trophy holders are 35-29-1 in Bowl games
  

Washington breaks Oregon's Trophy streak

Washington knocked off Oregon 37-34 on Saturday ending the Ducks reign as holders of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy 

 Oregon had run off 6 wins after taking the Trophy from BYU back in September. 

• Oregon improved their Trophy game record from 0-17-1 to now 7-18-1
• Washington has now won the Trophy 11 times and has an overall Trophy game record of 28-23
• The Huskies ended a Trophy drought dating back to September of 1997
• Washington had lost 8 straight Trophy games before their win over the Ducks
• The Huskies longest streak as trophy holder is 6 wins after defeating a Jim Harbaugh quarterbacked Michigan team in 1984 

Washington hosts Colorado (3-6 in trophy games, 2 time trophy holder) this week before traveling to Wazoo (7-13-1, 2-time Trophy winner) for the Apple Cup to close out the regular season. I did a quick look at the Pac-12 tie breaker rules and I think it is unlikely, but not impossible that the Huskies can make the Championship game. So the chance for a B1G team to play for the Trophy in Pasadena is still alive.

• Washington is 2-1 facing the Wolverines and 0-3 against Ohio State in Trophy games, 
• They have not faced any other B1G teams in Trophy games

 

 

M vs Washington prediction based on historical data

 

M is 225-64-1 in all games I have attended - all starts are for games I attended unless otherwise noted

M is 88-20 in non-conference games 

M is 10-5 vs schools from the Pac12 (or Pac10 previously)

M is 1-0 vs. Washington

M is 4-0 vs. schools from Washington

M is 3-0 when the opposition coach has the same first name as the Michigan coach

M is 14-5 in night games

M is 48-10 in games with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team (36-7 as head coach)

M is 25-3-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach of the M basketball team

M is 19-5 in the second start for their QB

M is 29-6 in the second attended game of their season

M is 164-25-1 against unranked opponents

M is 129-22 vs. schools with animal based nicknames

M is 145-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine

Michigan athletics are 2-0 in games I have attended in-person during a global pandemic

 

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 32 - Washington 22