M vs Alabama Rose Bowl prediction based on historical data

  

Michigan is 252-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 0-2 in the 11th attended games of the season
M is 8-9 in Bowl games
M is 8-5 in January
M is 95-23 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 25-10 vs. schools from Confederate States
M is 7-4 vs. schools from the SEC
M is 1-1 vs Alabama
M is 2-1 vs all schools from Alabama
M is 41-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 2-4 in the Rose Bowl
M is 6-7 west of the Mississippi River
M is 9-10 in stadiums that have hosted the Super Bowl
M is 28-5 vs schools with colors in the name or nickname
M is 81-28-1 on natural turf
M is 68-24 in mid afternoon starts
M is 4-3 when playing for their 11th consecutive attended win
M is 164-32-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 75-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 2-1 vs Nick Saban
M football is 52-6-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 90-42 vs ranked opponents
M is 3-1 when ranked #1
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked #4
M is 13-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site  (I'm assuming they will be at the Rose Bowl - if not M is 239-60-1 without ESPN Gameday)
M is 2-1 on Monday
M is 128-44 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance
M is 1-2 when jiMpossible and I are both at the Rose Bowl (sad jiMpossible is above with Bo at I believe the 1990 Rose Bowl)
M football and M hockey are combined 0-6 in semifinal games when I attended

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 29

'Bama 20

Washington takes the Trophy to the CFP

The winner of this year's College Football Playoff trophy, will also take with them the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Washington has been on quite a run. The Huskies has ripped off 16 straight wins since taking the Trophy from Oregon in November of 2022. This is their 11th time as holders of the Trophy.

• Washington is no 44-23 all-time in Trophy games
• This will be the 15th time the Sugar Bowl has hosted a Trophy game
• The team coming in the with Trophy is 12-2 in these match-ups
• Texas is 10-10 in Trophy games and is a 4-time Trophy holder
• The Longhorns went on a 4 game win streak after defeating Alabama in the 1965 Orange Bowl before losing to Arkansas
  
• Texas had a 2 game run at the end of the 1998 season carrying the Trophy through the 1999 Cotton Bowl before getting upset by NC State in the BCA Classic
  
• They ended USC's long run in the amazing 2006 Rose Bowl - BCS national championship game and won their opener of the 2006 season before falling to the Buckeyes
• Their last win was over Oklahoma State in 2008
• Most recent loss was last year to Washington in the Alamo Bowl

One of these schools will carry the Trophy into the Championship game and face either Michigan or Alabama.

• Michigan is 25-27-1 in Trophy games and are 9-time Trophy holders
• Alabama is 64-22 in Trophy games and has won the Trophy 11 times
   

Aggies Shock Tide to take Trophy

 Not many outside of College Station saw an upset possibility for Texas A&M over Alabama.

When the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy is on the line, anything can happen. Texas A&M pulled off the 41-38 upset with a walk-off field goal.

• The Aggies are now 7-6 all-time vying for the trophy, 7-6-1 if you count Texas A&M-Commerce and their tie in the 1954 Tangerine Bowl (Arkansas St retained the Trophy)
  
• This is their 4 time as Trophy holder
  
• Their longest streak was 5 games from after defeating Nebraska in 1998 before losing to the hated Longhorns
• A&M travels to Missouri this weekend
• The Tigers have won the Trophy only one time, defeating Arkansas in the 2008 Cotton Bowl
• They won their first 5 games to start the 2008 season before losing to Oklahoma State 
• Overall the Tigers are 6-7 in Trophy games
• Their last match-up was later in the 2008 season, facing Oklahoma in the Big12 Conference Championship Game
• The Tigers were the 5th, and final, victory for the Aggies in their streak in 1998
  

Alabama takes the Trophy to College Station this weekend

The Crimson tide retained the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy with their 42-21 win over Ole Miss last Saturday.

They travel to Texas A&M this weekend. 

• With their win Saturday, Alabama moved to 63-21 all-time in Trophy games
• This is Alabama's 11th time as holder of the Trophy
  
• Alabama has run off 10 wins since taking the Trophy from Auburn last fall 
  
• The 10 game streak is tied as their longest as Trophy-holder. 
• That streak ended in the 1965 Orange Bowl against Texas
  
• 'Bama is 2-0 all-time against Texas A&M in Trophy games 
• The first was win the the 1942 Cotton Bowl and was 'Bama's first Trophy win
• The Aggies are 6-6 all-time vying for the trophy, 6-6-1 if you count Texas A&M-Commerce and their tie in the 1954 Tangerine Bowl (Arkansas St retained the Trophy)
  
• Texas A&M have won the Trophy 3 times, most recently in 2016
  
• Their longest streak was 5 games from after defeating Nebraska in 1998before losing to the heated Longhorns
  

Crimson Tide swells to retain Trophy

Trophy-holder Alabama didn't have much trouble with Southern Miss, cruising to a 63-14 victory last Saturday. The Crimson Tide host another, more formidable foe from Mississippi this weekend when the Ole Miss Rebels come to Tuscaloosa.

• With their win Saturday, Alabama moved to 62-21 all-time in Trophy games
• This is Alabama's 11th time as holder of the Trophy
  
• Alabama has run off 9 wins since taking the Trophy from Auburn last fall 
  
• The only longer run for the Tide was a 10 game streak as Trophy-holder that was ended by Texas in the 1965 Orange Bowl
• 'Bama is 1-0 all-time against Ole Miss in Trophy games - their was win the the 1964 Sugar Bowl
  
• Ole Miss is 42-13-5 vying for the Trophy
  
• The Rebels have won the Trophy 4 times, most recently in 1967
• They are 0-5 in Trophy games since that loss
  
• Their longest streak was 19 games from November of 1958 through November of 1961 (included a tie to retain the trophy)
• They followed that with a 13 game run, starting with revenge against LSU in 1962 and going until the aforementioned Sugar Bowl loss to Alabama (2 ties included this time)
  

2021 Trophy update

Alabama - took possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy in November last year and haven't looked back. Mercer was no match this weekend - although I'm sure Saban has plenty of coaching of coaching points from the 48-14 vicotry.

Their closest match-up in that 7 game span was the 52-46 victory over Florida in the SEC Championship. Who does Alabama play this weekend - Florida...

We'll see if the Gators can match or improve on that effort in the Swamp.

Alabama takes Trophy in Iron Bowl

It came as no surprise that Alabama was able to dominate Auburn on Saturday. In doing so, they secured the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy for the 11th time.

It should be said that the Tigers had broken the streak of teams not retaining the Trophy with their win last week over Tennessee. That broke a string of 8 straight losses for the trophy holder. Technically they broke it the week before when their game was postponed due to COVID.

The Tide has a 54-21 record all-time when playing for the Trophy.

The way Alabama is playing it seems unlikely the Trophy will be changing hands very soon. COVID permitting, Alabama faces LSU this week then Florida in the SEC Championship game before heading to the playoffs.

M vs Alabama prediction

As much as I would love for Michigan to beat Alabama tomorrow, I just don't think it's going to happen.

M 27
Alabama 45

Sent from my iPhone

Trophy Update - Tide rolls over LSU

Alabama maintained control over the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy with a 10-0 victory over LSU in Death Valley.
This was the first shut out in a trophy game since Virginia Tech shut out Virginia in November of 2011. Just a reminder that 2011 Hokie squad lost to Michigan in the Sugar Bowl - although they had lost the trophy in the ACC championship game before playing M.
Bama still has a tough match up with Auburn and the SEC title game on their schedule along with facing Mississippi State this Saturday and Chattanooga next.
But at this point it seems very likely the trophy will be heading to the playoffs.

Alabama claims the trophy rolling over the Aggies

Original photo from Vasha Hunt/vhunt@al.com

Alabama scored a non-offensive touchdown for the 10th consecutive game and that was the play that broke Texas A&M for good.
The Aggies hung around and held the lead in the third quarter but the Crimson Tide continued their dominance in a 33-14 victory.
Most importantly, Alabama took over ownership of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. This is the first time they've held the trophy since October 2010. Alabama has held the trophy several times over it's history. Their all-time record in trophy games is 47-20.
As with this week, they first won the trophy with a victory over Texas A&M in the 1942 Cotton Bowl before losing to Georgia on Halloween of that next season. Their second run with the trophy was short lived, but also came with a bowl victory over Syracuse in the 1953 Orange Bowl. They somehow lost the 1953 season opener to Southern Miss.
A victory in the 1964 Sugar Bowl over Ole Miss started a season long run for Alabama, that ended in a loss in the 1965 Cotton Bowl to Texas.
Alabama next took the trophy from arch rival Auburn in the 1971 Iron Bowl before losing Nebraska in the 1972 Orange Bowl.
Their 1977 victory over USC led to 9 more wins before  the Trojans took the trophy back in the second half of the home-and-home in 1978.
The Tide got revenge in the 1985 Aloha Bowl over the Trojans and won 7 more times before losing to Penn State in October of 1986.
A pattern developed as they beat the Nittany Lions in September of 1987 but lost to Florida the next week. They retook the trophy from LSU in November, but again lost their next game to Notre Dame.
The Tide went trophy-less until defeating Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship game. They ran off 5 more victories until South Carolina surprised them in October of 2010.
Before Saturday their most recent attempt to take the trophy was their loss to Oklahoma in the 2014 Sugar Bowl.

Obviously Alabama is favored the rest of the way. They have a bye this week before heading to LSU on 11/5. They host Mississippi St, Chattanooga and Auburn to close out the regular season. If everything goes as expected they will take the trophy to the SEC Championship game and the playoffs after that.

Sooners Surprise in Sugar

Oklahoma didn't worry about being a two touchdown underdog. They turned the table and beat defending National Champion Alabama by two touchdowns. Maybe Stoopes was right about the Big 12 being comparable to the SEC?

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Of course the most important question, is "What is the soonest M can win the trophy?"

Here is Oklahoma's 2014 schedule:

Date	opponent
8/30/2014	Louisiana Tech
9/13/2014	Tennessee
9/20/2014	at Tulsa
9/27/2014	at WVU
10/4/2014	at TCU
10/11/2014	vs. Texas
10/18/2014	Kansas St
10/30/2014	at Iowa St
11/8/2014	Baylor
11/15/2014	at Texas Tech
11/22/2014	Kansas
11/29/2014	Oklahoma St

As you can see they do not play Michigan, nor do any of their opponents. So we have to go down a level.

LaTech's schedule is not set, but their non-conference schedule includes NORTHWESTERN State (boo), Auburn and Louisiana Lafayette. Nothing likely there.
After Oklahoma, Tennessee faces only SEC teams and Chattanooga, still not looking good.
Tulsa's schedule is also not finalized. After Oklahoma their only non-conference game is North Texas.
Then we get into conference schedules. It looks like Michigan's best chance again is going to be in Bowl season.

Thoughts on a great football Saturday

2 point conversion

• I had a bad feeling going into the play. Michigan has not been a good short yardage team all year. 
• I didn't like the formation they came out in. I really didn't like that they came back out in the same formation. John Beilein would never do that with the basketball team.
• After the fact, I think they needed to go for two. 
• OSU had a dominant running game - without a turnover M was unlikely to stop them
• M would be using their back up kicker for any field goals (his miss was saved by the timeout M called in the 3rd Q)
• Gardner was hobbled.
• As I said I didn't like the formation, I think it limited M. I think OSU had scouted the film enough to be able to guess what was coming.
• That being said, I think if Gardner had been able to get the pass off a split second earlier and Dileo could have reacted and made the catch right as he turned it would have been successful.
• When you're going for an all-or-nothing two point conversion play - I think you need to pull out all the stops. It either needs to be your best play that no one had been able to stop all year or something you've saved for just this case - that is un-scoutable. This play was neither.
• Biggest problem I have with the decision to go for two is Hoke saying he asked the seniors and they said "go for 2." Well of course they did. If there is a player on that sideline that didn't want to go for the win right there - they should be cut. Hoke and his staff are paid a ridiculous amount of money to make those decisions. The 22-23 year-olds on the sideline are paid in tuition and board allowances.
• Another way I've thought about the decision to go for 2 - what if the scenario was M was down by 3 and faced 4th and goal on the 3 with 32 seconds left. Do you take the field goal then? I feel like that decisions might have been to kick, but why is it any different?

Alabama -Auburn

• The extra second - I thought the clock in football was different than the clock in basketball in that the on field officials need to signal to stop the clock. It shouldn't be the split-second his foot came down out-of-bounds but the split-second the official started to signal to stop the clock.

If Alabama wins on this FG it would be an injustice - official has to signal to stop the clock - game should be over
— Mike Altese (@mpharmd98) December 1, 2013

boneg championship - Rose Bowl

• I was happy until I realized that their loss probably guaranteed MSU a spot in the Rose Bowl
• Twitter seems to think I should root for MSU because "Ohio (sic) is our real rival"
• I know about 2 people who are OSU fans - I know several MSU fans. I don't like it, but I'm not surprised when OSU is successful and better than M. I do NOT like it when MSU is.
• My best chance is a close OSU victory (preferably 7-3 with many turnovers) with an Auburn blow-out in the SEC championship game dropping OSU behind Auburn in the BCS.

Michigan vs. Alabama based on Historical Data

M is 173-48-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 32-4 in the first gave (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 40-8 with #16 starting at QB
M is 57-13 in non-conference games
M is 5-1 against schools from the SEC
M is 29-14 in games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 8-1 when ranked #8 (including 1-0 vs Alabama)
M is 2-0 when their opponent is ranked #2
M is 18-3 when facing teams with nicknames that commonly include a color (Crimson Tide)
M is 14-5 when facing schools from the Confederacy
M is 5-4 when playing for the first time in a particular state
M is 3-1 when facing a coach coaching his second different team for the first time


It's easy when you add it all up...

Alabama 21
Michigan 13