M vs Oklahoma prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 261-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated) 

 

This will be the 20th state I have seen M play a game in – 22nd state for college football over all

 

M is 60-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 31-7 in the second attended game of the season
M is 28-6 in night games
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 8-1 when ranked 15th
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked 18th
M is 8-5 vs. teams in the SEC
M is 1-0 vs teams from Oklahoma
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 172-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-21 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 29-14 in true road games
M is 16-7 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-11 – when including the same stadium with a new name)
M is 4-0 in Memorial Stadiums (Michigan Stadium and probably others are technically Memorial stadiums, but it’s not in the recognized name)
M is 4-1 when their head coach attended the school they are competing against
M is 2-0 on September 6
M is 252-65-1 on Saturday


It’s easy when you look at the data (but I hope I'm wrong)

M 20

Oklahoma 26 

 

 

M vs New Mexico prediction based on historical data

 

Michigan is 260-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
 

This will be my 50th season attending Michigan football games!

M is 59-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 43-6 in the first attended game of the season
M is 28-3 with a starting QB in his first start
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 10-0 when ranked 14th
M is 10-1 vs. teams in the Mountain West
M is 12-3 vs teams whose head coach has a 3-letter last name
M is 29-5 the first time facing a team from a particular state
M is 99-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 171-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 216-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-1 on August 30
M is 251-65-1 on Saturday
M is 10-3 vs schools with canine based nicknames
 

It’s easy when you look at the data 

M 48

New Mexico 6
 

A very late "too early prediction" for 2025

vs New Mexico W
@ Oklahoma L
vs Central Michigan W
@ Nebraska W
vs Wisconsin W
@ USC W
vs Washington W
@ Michigan State W
vs Purdue W
@ Northwestern W
@ Maryland W
vs Ohio State L 

Michigan, 10-2, 8-1, does not make the conference championship game, but makes the playoff as the 8th seed.

M hosts the #9 seeded LSU Tigers W

Then faces #1 Texas in the Cotton Bowl L 

2023 M Football Season prediction

15-0 National champions

9/2 vs East Carolina - W

9/9 vs UNLV - W 

9/16 vs Bowling Green - W

9/23 vs Rutgers - W

9/30 @ Nebraska - W

10/7 @ Minnesota - W

10/14 vs Indiana - W

10/21 @ MSU - W

11/4 vs Purdue - W

11/11 @ Penn State - W

11/18 @ Maryland - W

11/25 OSU - W

12/2 B1G Championship vs Wisconsin - W

1/1 Rose Bowl/College Football Playoff vs. OSU- W

1/8 National Championship vs Georgia - W

M vs MSU prediction based on Historical Data

 

Michigan is 238-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 20-10 in the 7th attended games of the season (2-3 vs. MSU)
M is 5-1 on October 29
M is 146-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 18-11 vs Michigan State (MSU is 12-18 in all games I have attended)

M is 31-11 vs. schools from the state of Michigan
M is 232-62-1 vs schools from states I've visited
M is 200-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 18-6 in night games
M is 37-14 in Trophy Games

M is 15-2 when playing for their 7th consecutive attended win

M is 26-13 when facing the same team in consecutive seasons with a different starting QB for M (2020 COVID season is left out so 2021 opponents that were played in 2019 count)
M is 154-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 95-33-1 vs. schools with Human based nicknames

M is 48-26-1 vs. schools with ethnic/cultural nicknames
M is 61-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 38-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team 

M Is 8-3 vs. the 6th different head coach for a specific school
M is 174-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 26-3 when ranked #4
M is 231-61-1 on Saturday 

 

It's easy when you look at the numbers 

 

M 40

MSU 17

M Season Prediction 2022

 12-1 Rose Bowl Champs

Colorado St - W

Hawai'i - W

Connecticut - W

Maryland - W

@ Iowa - W

@ Indiana - W

Penn St - W

Michigan St - W

@ Rutgers - W

Nebraska - W

Illinois - W

@ Ohio State - L

Rose Bowl vs Oregon - W

College Football Playoff Standings don't matter, until they do...

Regardless of what the rankings are tonight, I think only 5 teams control their destiny for the playoffs. Georgia, Michigan St, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State would make the playoffs by winning out.

Here's my thoughts on the hierarchy of who would make the playoffs:

undefeated Georgia

undefeated MSU

1 loss Alabama

undefeated Oklahoma

1 loss Georgia

1 loss B1G champ

1 loss Michigan where MSU is undefeated

undefeated Cincinnati

1 loss Oregon

1 loss Notre Dame

undefeated Wake Forest

2 loss Alabama

1 Loss MSU - loss to OSU

1 Loss B12 champ

 

I thought Michigan was in with winning out, but I don't think they'd get in with this scenario:

12-1 SEC Champ Alabama

13-0 MSU

13-0 Oklahoma

11-1 Georgia

 

The biggest chaos potential would be if the B1G West Champ wins the B1G, not sure a 1 loss MSU or a 2 loss OSU or Michigan makes it in in that scenario

 

M vs. Rutgers prediction based on historical data

 

M is 227-64-1 in all games I have attended - all stats are for game I attended unless otherwise noted

M is 27-8 in the 4th game I have attended in a season
M is 137-44-1 in non-conference games 

M is 4-1 vs. Rutgers

M is 56-17 in 3:30 starts

M is 37-7 on their homecoming

M is 39-7 on either teams homecoming

M is 50-10 in games with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team (38-7 as head coach)

M is 27-3-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach of the M basketball team

M is 14-5 in the 4th start for their QB

M is 166-25-1 against unranked opponents

M is 13-0 when ranked #19

M is 6-1 vs. schools with Knights as part of their nickname 

M is 28-6 vs. schools with a color commonly included in their nickname

M is 92-32-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames

M is 147-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine

Michigan athletics are 4-0 in games I have attended in-person during a global pandemic

 

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

 

M 36

R 15

M Season Presdiction 2021

I'm cautiously optimistic - 10-3

WMU - W

Washington - W

NIU - W

Rutgers - W

@ Wisconsin - L

@ Nebraska - W

Northwestern - W

@ MSU - W

Indiana - W

@ PSU - L

@ Maryland - W

OSU - L

 Las Vegas Bowl vs UCLA - W

Game Week - Minnesota Countdown - #4

 To show I don't play favorites, I'm going to clock in a Michigan loss here at number 4. 

November 15, 1986, Jim Harbaugh's senior day. 

Rickey Foggie and and the Gophers hung around, Michigan just couldn't put them away. Too many turnovers and just enough scrambling from Foggie put the game on the leg of Chip Lohmiller. He hit the short field goal at the end to make it a 20-17 final for the Gophers. This was the first time I had seen Michigan lose in Michigan Stadium.

Clear sighted predictions for 2020

 At Minnesota - W

MSU -W

At Indiana - W

Wisconsin - W

At Rutgers - W

Penn State - W

Maryland - W

At OSU - L

Match-up Saturday - vs. Iowa - W

Bowl loss to Georgia 8-2

Trophy Update - Clanga!

 The Mississippi State Bulldogs are holders of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy for the first time since 1989!

The Bulldogs upset the defensing National Champion LSU Tigers 44-34 to kickoff the SEC season delayed because of COVID-19. This is the 3rd straight Trophy game where possession has changed hands. Ohio State lost to Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, Clemson lost to LSU in the CFP Championship Game.

The Bulldogs are now on their 3rd run as trophy holders. Tomorrow is the 64th anniversary of their win over Arkansas State to take the trophy for the first time in 1954. They held the trophy another week, defeating Tulane before losing to Miami on 10/15/1954.

They had chances to win the trophy back every year between 1957 and 1964, but couldn't take it home. After that their chances became more sparse. They lost to Trophy-holding Georgia in 1967 and 1971. Then they suffered losses to Alabama in 1977 and Florida in 1987.

Finally the Bulldogs broke through with a win over Southern Miss in 1989. Georgia ended their run at one-game the next week.

They suffered 3 more Trophy game losses until finally pulling it out last week against LSU.

That leaves the Bulldogs overall Trophy game record at 4-17-2 - both ties coming against bitter rival Ole Miss!

Mississippi State hosts Arkansas Saturday night. The Razorbacks are 9-15 in Trophy games, last holding the trophy for 2 weeks in 2016.

M vs MTSU based on historical data

M is 218-63-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 38-5 in the first attended games of the season

M is 19-4 when it is actually their first game of the season

M is 76-17 vs. non-conference opponents

M is 30-5 vs. “directional” schools (includes Northwestern and Southern California)

M is 2-0 vs. teams from the state of Tennessee

M is 54-9 when facing a team for the first time (MTSU will be the 64^th opponent I’ve seen face M)

M is 1-0 vs. schools from the SunBelt

M is 182-46-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 140-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine

M is 25-6 vs. schools with a color in or commonly used with their nickname

M is 40-9 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 12-5 in night games

M is 7-1 when ranked #7

M is 159–25-1 vs. unranked opponents

M is 43-19 when previous attended game was a loss

It's easy when you look at the numbers,

M 48

MTSU 14