M vs Oklahoma prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 261-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated) 

 

This will be the 20th state I have seen M play a game in – 22nd state for college football over all

 

M is 60-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 31-7 in the second attended game of the season
M is 28-6 in night games
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 8-1 when ranked 15th
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked 18th
M is 8-5 vs. teams in the SEC
M is 1-0 vs teams from Oklahoma
M is 100-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 172-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-21 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 29-14 in true road games
M is 16-7 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-11 – when including the same stadium with a new name)
M is 4-0 in Memorial Stadiums (Michigan Stadium and probably others are technically Memorial stadiums, but it’s not in the recognized name)
M is 4-1 when their head coach attended the school they are competing against
M is 2-0 on September 6
M is 252-65-1 on Saturday


It’s easy when you look at the data (but I hope I'm wrong)

M 20

Oklahoma 26 

 

 

TCU takes the trophy from Oklahoma

While I was sitting in the stands at the birthplace of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy - TCU was shocking Oklahoma 37-33 to make the trophy theirs!

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Horned Frogs have only won the trophy once before. In October of 1991 they defeated Rice only to lose to Baylor a week later. They've also played for the trophy sic other times. Losing to LSU in 1959, Ohio St in 1969, USC in 1977, BYU in 1996, and Texas Tech and Kansas St. in 2012.

TCU travels to Baylor this weekend in a match-up of top-ten teams.

Big Game Bob keeps the trophy in Norman

Oklahoma dominated in-state-rival Tulsa 52-7 last Saturday to keep possessions of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. The Sooners will likely face a tougher test this week as they host Tennessee.

The Volunteers have had quite a history with the Trophy. They first won it from Auburn in 1938 - they then rattled off 17 wins (only allowing 6 points in the process). That took them to the 1940 Rose Bowl - where they lost to Southern Cal. Included in that run is a win over Oklahoma in the 1939 Orange Bowl.

There next trophy win was in the 1955 finale over Vanderbilt. The ripped off 10 straight wins in 1956 before falling to Baylor in the 1957 Sugar Bowl.

They've also held the trophy for 3 weeks in 1957, one week in 1959, one in 1966, 3 in 1967 and most recently a 7 game run in 1974-75 that I swear ended in a game I remember seeing on TV against UCLA.

Additional losses in to trophy holders:
Alabama in 1942, 1964, 1977, 1986
Ole Miss in 1960, 1962, 1963
USC 1980
UCLA 1985
Nebraska 1998 (could have secured full MNC for Michigan)
Miami 2002
Florida 2007, 2009

I think the trophy will stay with Oklahoma for another week.

Sooners roll to keep Trophy

As expected Oklahoma rolled over Louisiana Tech to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. This Saturday they travel to in-state rival Tulsa. The Sooners are a 24.5 point favorite.

The Golden Hurricane held the trophy back in 1996. They won it from Iowa #B1G and retained it against Oklahoma and Colorado State, before losing to BYU.

Sooners Surprise in Sugar

Oklahoma didn't worry about being a two touchdown underdog. They turned the table and beat defending National Champion Alabama by two touchdowns. Maybe Stoopes was right about the Big 12 being comparable to the SEC?

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Of course the most important question, is "What is the soonest M can win the trophy?"

Here is Oklahoma's 2014 schedule:

Date	opponent
8/30/2014	Louisiana Tech
9/13/2014	Tennessee
9/20/2014	at Tulsa
9/27/2014	at WVU
10/4/2014	at TCU
10/11/2014	vs. Texas
10/18/2014	Kansas St
10/30/2014	at Iowa St
11/8/2014	Baylor
11/15/2014	at Texas Tech
11/22/2014	Kansas
11/29/2014	Oklahoma St

As you can see they do not play Michigan, nor do any of their opponents. So we have to go down a level.

LaTech's schedule is not set, but their non-conference schedule includes NORTHWESTERN State (boo), Auburn and Louisiana Lafayette. Nothing likely there.
After Oklahoma, Tennessee faces only SEC teams and Chattanooga, still not looking good.
Tulsa's schedule is also not finalized. After Oklahoma their only non-conference game is North Texas.
Then we get into conference schedules. It looks like Michigan's best chance again is going to be in Bowl season.

Sooners Storm Bedlam for Trophy

The Oklahoma Sooners captured the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy with a 33-24 victory over their Bedlam rival Oklahoma State.

Photo credit: http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=209334370

They next face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma has a 7-11-1 record in trophy games.

date	Winner		Loser
1/2/1939	Tennessee	17	OU	0	Orange Bowl
9/28/1946	Army	21	OU	7
10/9/1965	Texas	19	OU	0
1/1/1968	OU	26	Tennessee	24	Orange Bowl
9/21/1968	Notre Dame	45	OU	21
9/29/1973	USC	7	OU	7
9/3/1992	OU	34	Texas Tech	9
9/12/1992	OU	61	Arkansas St	0
9/19/1992	USC	20	OU	10
9/28/1996	Tulsa	31	OU	24
11/1/1997	Nebraska	69	OU	7
11/7/1998	Texas A&M	29	OU	0
1/4/2005	USC	55	OU	19	Orange Bowl
11/22/2008	OU	65	Texas Tech	21
11/29/2008	OU	61	Oklahoma St	41
12/6/2008	OU	62	Missouri	21	BXII Championship
1/8/2009	Florida	24	OU	14	BCS Championship
11/7/2013	Baylor	41	OU	12
12/7/2013	OU	33	Oklahoma St	24

Big Trophy game tonight

Baylor has held the jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy since defeating Kansas State last November.

• They've won those 11 games by an average score of  53-22. 
• Oklahoma comes in to Waco ranked #10 with a 7-1 record. 
• Oklahoma lost the trophy in the MNC game in January of 2009 and hasn't played for it since.
• An 11 win streak as trophy holder for Baylor (their first of those 11 games above was as the challenger) would be the longest since Florida ripped off 12 straight wins after beating Oklahoma in 2009

Trophy Predictions for 2012 - point spreads

Previously I posted how the CFRC would predict the fate of the jiMpossible sarcasMike Trophy for 2012. Now we'll follow the path using point spreads from Beyond the Bets.

Again we start with WVU. They are favored by 21 over Marshall, 40.5 over James Madison, 21 over Maryland, and 14 over Baylor. They are 4 point underdogs against Texas.

Texas is a 4 point underdog against Oklahoma. So far the sharps are following the CFRC exactly.

OU is favored by 33 over Kansas, 10 over Notre Dame, 20 over Iowa State, 18.5 over Baylor, 2.5 over WVU, 9 over Oklahoma State and 3.5 over TCU.

So once again the Sooners take the trophy bowling. LSU is favored in every game this season, so again it looks like a repeat of the CFRC version. Oklahoma, LSU and the Trophy all meet in the Arroyo Seco.

Trophy Predictions for the 2012 season - CFRC

As you may remember West Virginia is the current holder of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. Over the next few days we'll look at some potential outcomes for trophy this season.

First up the current CFRC:

WVU is ranked 17 so they beat Marshall (78), James Madison (FCS), Maryland (96), and Baylor (23) before losing on the road to Texas (18 - home field advantage).

Texas loses the Red River Rivalry to Oklahoma (4).

The Sooners should beat Kansas (104), Notre Dame (24), Iowa State (58), Baylor (23), and WVU (17) before squeaking by Oklahoma State (3 - home field advantage). They close out the regular season with a victory over TCU (16).

The teams ranked above Oklahoma are Alabama (1), LSU(2) and Oklahoma State(3). They've already beaten the Cowboys and it would seem an undefeated Oklahoma team would be selected for the MNC game over  a one-loss Alabama (lost at LSU) to face LSU. So the biggest trophy ends the season in the biggest game.

This years MNC game is in the Rose Bowl - no home field advantage for either team so LSU finishes the season undefeated and holds the trophy.

Next up we'll see what the odds-makers predict.