Last second field goal brings trophy back to TCU

The ESPN College Gameday crew traveled to Morgantown for this jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy battle. TCU prevailed on Jaden Oberkrom's last second field goal.

Photo by: Tommy Gilligan USA Today Sports

The Horned Frogs trailed for much of the game but the Mountaineers were never able to put them away.

TCU faces Kansas State this coming Saturday in Fort Worth before traveling to Kansas, Texas and hosting Iowa State. If they can keep the trophy this week - they will certainly be favored the rest of the way.

WVU drops Baylor from ranks of Unbeaten and wins TROPHY

West Virginia failed to take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy from Oklahoma just a few weeks ago, but given a second chance this season, they triumphed over previously undefeated Baylor 41-27.

(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

  

Big XII schools have retained the trophy since WVU demolished Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl.  

 

WVU travels to Stillwater this week, then host TCU, travel to Texas, host Kansas St and finish the regular season in Ames, Iowa. 

ESPN currently project the Mountaineers in either the Russell Athletic Bowl vs. Duke or the Auto Zone Liberty Bowl vs. Cal. But that probably anticipates at least one loss during the regular season. It would seem the trophy is likely to stay in the Big XII until Bowl season.

Trophy Update - Guns Up

It certainly came as no surprise that the Mountaineer defense gave up 49 points to Texas Tech. But scoring only 14 means not only have Geno Smith's Heisman chances taken a hit - the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy has been lost as well.

This is the 3 time the Red Raiders have held the cup. In 1991 TT took the cup from Baylor, kept it with a follow-up victory over Houston then lost the next week to Oklahoma. They went trophy-less until Mike Leach's squad knocked off Texas in a last second victory in 2008. They held for a week with a blowout of Oklahoma State. But then got demolished by the Sooners again 56-20.

Good news Red Raider fans, Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma last week - so if they do lose the trophy to the Sooners, it won't be until 2013! There is, however, as rough stretch coming up for TT. There next 3 games are all against ranked opponents, 10/20 at TCU, 10/27 at Kansas St and 11/3 hosting Texas.

The entire remaining schedule is all in conference - and all those teams also only have conference games remaining - so the earliest Michigan could win the trophy would be in a bowl match-up - it would either be in a BCS forced match-up - seems unlikely that either a Big 12 school would get put into the Rose Bowl or that M would be a second BCS team from the boneg -the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl or Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl. Maybe a B12 team facing Notre Dame in a bowl could be the quickest path for a Michigan Trophy game.

Trophy Update - Week 6

WVU followed up last week's shoot-out with another. The Mountaineers held off Texas 48-45. Their 5 game win streak as trophy holder matches Clemson's streak last season. The last team to win 6 straight was Alabama going from the 2010 BCS Championship game until they lost in early October to South Carolina.

WVU is currently a 4 point favorite over this week's opponent, Texas Tech. That seems low to me, but the Mountaineer defense certainly hasn't impressed.

I think WVU keeps the trophy for at least one more week - setting up a big showdown - likely for the conference championship, with Kansas State.

Trophy Update - week 5

Last Saturday WVU kept possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy in the highest scoring match-up in trophy history. The 133 points scored topped the previous record of 115 from Princeton's 115-0 trouncing of Virginia back in 1890.

Teams have combined to score more than 100 points on 9 times in 1455 games, West Virginia and their opponents have gone over 100 three times in their current trophy run (starting with their win over Clemson to take the trophy.)

The 63 points Baylor scored in a losing effort is also a new high for the loser of a trophy game. LSU  scored 48 in a multiple overtime loss to Arkansas in 2007. As some solace to Baylor LSU did go on to win the MNC that year...

As I discussed before the season started, WVU's game this week with Texas is perhaps their toughest thus far. Can the Texas offense score enough to take the trophy from the Mountaineers? Will the Longhorn defense force more incomplete passes than TD passes from Geno Smith?

We'll find out staring at 7pm Saturday night.

Trophy Update

WVU kept control of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy with a dominant 69-34 victory over intrastate rival Marshall. This follows their 70-33 victory in the Orange Bowl. WVU became the first team with consecutive 60+ point trophy games since Oklahoma topped 60 three strait in 2008. You have to go all the way back to Fordham in 1930 for a higher 2 game run (73-0 and 71-0). Fordham's next game was a 3-0 win.

I think James Madison is unlikely to hold the Mountaineers to that low a score.

Trophy Predictions 2012 - Historical Data

After looking at the CFRC and Point Spreads, I thought I would look at how the Trophy holder has done historically against each opponent. If the trends hold true - it looks good for WVU as they have a winning or at least .500 record against each opponent on their schedule.

WVU is 10-0 against Marshall
1-0 against Jame Madison
25-21-2 against Maryland
This will be their first match-up with Baylor
1-0 against Texas
1-0 against Texas Tech
1-1 against Kansas State
1-0 against TCU
2-1 against Oklahoma State
2-2 against Oklahoma
First match-up with Iowa State
1-0 against Kansas

What about the 1-1 and 2-2 records. Both games are in Morgantown, so WVU has the home field advantage if that would be the tie-breaker. Although it might be worth noting that they have never played at Kansas State or hosted Oklahoma in their previous meetings. So home field might not be the best indicator (if there were any anyway...)

What is the previous pattern? In 1930WVU beat KSU 23-7, then lost in the next season 19-0. That pattern would imply a WVU victory this season.

But maybe the Wildcats are on a streak. Lets look at how KSU followed up against the other teams the beat in 1931. In addition to beating WVU, KSU had victories over Pittsburg St, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, North Dakota St, Washburn and Wichita St in 1931 (this had to be one of their best seasons pre-Bill Snyder). In 1932, they beat Wichita St and Missouri, but lost to Kansas and Oklahoma. In 1934 the defeated Washburn. They have not faced Pittsburg St or ND St since the 1931 season. So KSU is 3-2 in their next game against teams they defeated in 1931. I might pencil this one in as a KSU win then, but lets look at WVU-OU first.

The Oklahoma pattern offers a couple options. The first match-up, in 1958, was a 47-14 Oklahoma victory. Twenty years later, the Billy Sims Sooners romped 52-10. In 1982, WVU chalked up a 41-27 victory. The most recent contest was the 2008 Fiesta Bowl when the RR-less Mountaineers surprised OU 48-28. Which pattern holds? Does WWLL repeat (WWLLWWLL)? or does the WVU "streak continue for the 3rd straight win? How many times has a team beaten Oklahoma 3 straight times?

Arkansas beat OU the first two times they met (1903 & 1909), but could not win the 3rd. Colorado twice had 2 game win streaks fail to reach 3 before going 8-0-1 from 1989-1999. Iowa St had one 2 game win streak (1960-61), but couldn't make it 3. Kansas has 3 separate 3-game (or more) win streaks against the Sooners (1903, 05, 09; 1922-26; 1995-97) against only 1 failed 2 gamer. KSU had 2 2-game streaks fail to reach 3 before winning 5 straight form 1993-97. The powerhouse Miami Hurricanes won 3 straight in the mid 80s (85-86-88). Missouri is 0-3 in attempts to win 3 straight. Nebraska is 6-3 going for the 3rd straight loss (not counting times going for greater than 3 in a row). Northwestern is currently on a 3 game win streak against the Sooners (don't tell Oklahoma!). Notre Dame won the first two games, then lost, and has now won 6 straight. Oklahoma St is 0-3 in 3 game attempts. USC has beaten OU 6 straight times. Texas is 8-2 in attempts at 3 straight Red River Rivalries. Texas A&M is 2-0.
Overall record for teams on 2 game win streaks against OU 25-18. So this looks like a WVU win.

Which brings us back to the KSU game. I did a lot of work on WVU-OU to say it doesn't matter since KSU would already have taken the trophy. But what else do I have to do?

If KSU does beat WVU they would then face Texas Tech - who they are 4-8 against. TTU would then take on Texas - unfortunately for the Red Raiders they are only 15-45 against the Longhorns.

Texas would beat Iowa State (8-1) and TCU (58-20-1) before losing to KSU (5-7 - Really?) - Based on their history, KSU should be 6-6 this season including an FCS victory, so I'm not sure if they would even make a bowl.

At least this path keeps the trophy out of the MNC game. So lets go with that - the Wildcats stay home over the holidays, but they get to enjoy the trophy until fall 2013.

Trophy Predictions for 2012 - point spreads

Previously I posted how the CFRC would predict the fate of the jiMpossible sarcasMike Trophy for 2012. Now we'll follow the path using point spreads from Beyond the Bets.

Again we start with WVU. They are favored by 21 over Marshall, 40.5 over James Madison, 21 over Maryland, and 14 over Baylor. They are 4 point underdogs against Texas.

Texas is a 4 point underdog against Oklahoma. So far the sharps are following the CFRC exactly.

OU is favored by 33 over Kansas, 10 over Notre Dame, 20 over Iowa State, 18.5 over Baylor, 2.5 over WVU, 9 over Oklahoma State and 3.5 over TCU.

So once again the Sooners take the trophy bowling. LSU is favored in every game this season, so again it looks like a repeat of the CFRC version. Oklahoma, LSU and the Trophy all meet in the Arroyo Seco.

Trophy Predictions for the 2012 season - CFRC

As you may remember West Virginia is the current holder of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. Over the next few days we'll look at some potential outcomes for trophy this season.

First up the current CFRC:

WVU is ranked 17 so they beat Marshall (78), James Madison (FCS), Maryland (96), and Baylor (23) before losing on the road to Texas (18 - home field advantage).

Texas loses the Red River Rivalry to Oklahoma (4).

The Sooners should beat Kansas (104), Notre Dame (24), Iowa State (58), Baylor (23), and WVU (17) before squeaking by Oklahoma State (3 - home field advantage). They close out the regular season with a victory over TCU (16).

The teams ranked above Oklahoma are Alabama (1), LSU(2) and Oklahoma State(3). They've already beaten the Cowboys and it would seem an undefeated Oklahoma team would be selected for the MNC game over  a one-loss Alabama (lost at LSU) to face LSU. So the biggest trophy ends the season in the biggest game.

This years MNC game is in the Rose Bowl - no home field advantage for either team so LSU finishes the season undefeated and holds the trophy.

Next up we'll see what the odds-makers predict.

Trophy game blow-out!

WVU demolished Clemson 70-33 last night taking possession of the All-Time trophy. This is West Virginia's first time winning the trophy.



The Mountaineers 2012 schedule is a little up in the air as they are leaving the Big East for the Big 12. They do have 3 non-conference on the schedule thus far, everything else is currently listed as TBD.

9/1/12 Marshall
9/8/12 at Florida State
9/15/12 vs. James Madison at FedEx Field

I'll try to do some homework over the off season to determine if the Orange Bowl massacre set any trophy game records. I would guess it has at least been quite a while since the trophy holder gave up 70 points.