Fiesta Bowl Prediction based on Historical Data

 Michigan is 242-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 0-1 in the 11th attended games of the season
M is 8-8 in Bowl games
M is 2-3 in December
M is 92-22 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 17-5 vs “Religious” schools
M is 1-1 vs schools from the Big 12
M is 56-11 when facing a team for the 1st time
M is vs 7-1 all schools from Texas
M is 39-19 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 8-7 when playing their first game in a new state
M is 6-6 west of the Mississippi River
M is 6-5 in NFL stadiums
M is 4-2 in domes
M is 80- 27-1 on natural turf
M is 67-23 in 2:30, 3:30, 4 or 4:30 starts
M is 4-2 when playing for their 10th consecutive attended win
M is 84-19 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 65-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 1-0 vs Sonny Dykes
M football is 42-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 88-41 vs ranked opponents
M is 7-4 when ranked #2
M is 0-2 vs teams ranked #3
M is 18-3 vs. teams with purple as one of their primary colors
M is 235-61-1 on Saturday
M is 122-43 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance 

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 32

TCU 23

Hogs take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy from the Frogs

For the first time since the 2012 Orange Bowl the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy has left he Big 12 conference.

In a match up of old Southwest Conference foes, Arkansas went into Fort Worth and came away with a double overtime victory over TCU. Arkansas lead most of the way, but a 21 point 4th quarter by TCU moved the score from 20-7 Arkansas to 28-20 Horned Frogs.
The Hogs TD and two point conversion tied it up. A blocked field goal put the game into overtime.
TCU could only manage a field goal in the second OT so the Razorbacks TD meant the trophy was heading home to Fayetteville.
This is the third time Arkansas has taken the trophy. They beat Texas on 10/16/1965 and rattled off 5 more victories before losing to LSU in the1966 Cotton Bowl. The only other time they won the trophy was the epic upset over eventual National Champ, LSU on 11/23/2007. They fell again in the Cotton Bowl to Missouri in their next game.
They also lost in trophy games against USC in September of 1973, Duke in October of 1974, Baylor in November of 1991, USC again in September of 2005, Auburn in October of 2007, Florida in October of 2009 and Alabama in September of 2010. Their overall record in trophy games is 8-9.

Looking ahead to the Razorbacks schedule:
9/17 vs. Texas State (in Fayetteville)
9/24 vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
10/1 vs. Alcorn State (in Little Rock)
10/8 vs. Alabama (in Fayetteville)
10/15 vs. Mississippi (in Fayetteville)
10/22 at Auburn
11/5 vs. Florida (at Fayetteville)
11/12 vs. LSU (at Fayetteville)
11/19 at Mississippi State
11/25 at Missouri

Lots of home games for Arkansas - their website lists the Texas A&M game as a home game in Dallas. I'm guessing that may be a mistake, but it isn't a true road game either way.

If they get by the game in Jerryworld, I don't think they'll get by Alabama, even at home.

jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy outlook for 2016

Back in January I said there would be an update soon... I guess 8 months is soon.

TCU comes into the 2016 season as the trophy holder after an amazing comeback over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl.

They open the season tomorrow night hosting South Dakota State. I'll admit I haven't done much scouting on the Jackrabbits, but I'm thinking TCU will pull this one out.

The remainder of their schedule is:
vs. Arkansas on 9/10
vs. Iowa State 9/17
at SMU 9/23
vs. Oklahoma 10/1
at Kansas 10/8
at WVU 10/22
vs. Texas Tech 10/29
at Baylor 11/5
vs. Oklahoma St 11/19
at Texas 11/25
vs. Kansas St 12/3

The Arkansas game next week might be a close one. If the Frogs get past the Hogs, they'll be favorites until they play Oklahoma.

Chances of the trophy coming to the B1G this season:
A quick look makes it seem it will have to be in a bowl game.

jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy update

Amazing comeback by TCU, down 31-0 at the half, they come all the way back to win it over Oregon in triple overtime 47-41.
Full post on the trophy and its potential for next season coming soon.

Quick Trophy Update

TCU won in the rain in double overtime 28-21 over Baylor last night, winning back the jimpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

I'll try to have a full update later, but for now Go Blue! Beat the Buckeyes!

Cowboys break Frogs hold on Trophy

Coming into Saturday, TCU had successfully defended the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy 13 times since taking it from WVU last October. Oklahoma State ended that run 49-29, sending the Horned Frogs home, but keeping the trophy in Stillwater.

Original photo from Oklahoma State Football Flickr page https://www.flickr.com/photos/osuathletics/22441679657/in/dateposted/

Trophy Notes

• TCU's streak was the longest since USC defended 25 times after beating Michigan in the 2004 Rose Bowl.
• Oklahoma State's remaining schedule is at Iowa State then at home against Baylor and Oklahoma.
• Iowa State has never won the trophy. They are 0-3 all-time with an average game score of 60-10.
• The Cowboys last held the trophy in November 2013. The took the trophy from Baylor before losing the next week to Oklahoma.
• Oklahoma State is 4-9 all-time in trophy games, 1-2 as the trophy holder.
• Their only successful defense was a 34-6 victory over Baylor in 2008.
• The Big 12 has held the trophy since WVU beat Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl.
• That is 49 straight games and all the possible scenarios for the final three weeks of the regular season will keep it within the conference, bringing it to at least 52 games before bowl/playoff season.

TCU retains trophy in another close call

The Horned Frogs trailed Kansas State 35-17 at halftime and were still down 42-31 midway through the 4th quarter. But they came all the way back for a 52-45 victory, retaining the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

This Saturday they head to Ames Iowa for a match-up with Iowa State.

TCU has scored 50 or more points in 5 straight games. I assume the Cyclones will not be able to stop the streak.

jiMpossible - sarcasMike trophy game tonight

Last year was a big year for Minnesota football. They came to Ann Arbor and won the Little Brown Jug. They took Floyd of Rosedale back from Iowa. Since they beat Penn State in 2013 and didn't play them last season they maintained possession of the Governor's Victory Bell. Minnesota's mascot and @FauxPelini even went about creating the Bits of Broken Chair trophy, that the Gophers went on to win. Had then been able to defeat Wisconsin for  Paul Bunyan's Axe it may have been the greatest Minnesota season since 1941 (spoiler alert - it may have been anyway).
 
Tonight they host TCU and the winner gets the greatest mythological trophy there is, The jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. As you know this trophy traces it's winner back to the first intercollegiate game between Rutgers and Princeton in 1869.

TCU is heavily favored coming off of perhaps their most impressive season since 1938. Can the Gophers make it 4 of 5 in their trophy case? The Big Ten hasn't held the trophy in conference since Ohio State lost to Urban Meyer's Gators in the 2007 MNC game.

My heart is with Minnesota - my head is with the Horned Frogs.

TCU 38
Minnesota 14 

Trophy Update Bowls 2014

TCU dominated Ole Miss 42-3 to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy in the Big 12 going in to 2015. With the Big 12 playing 9 conference games there are aren't many chances to get the trophy to another conference.


Here is TCU's 2015 schedule

9/3/15 @ Minnesota
9/12/15 Stephen F Austin
9/19/15 SMU
9/26/15 @ Texas Tech
10/3/15 Texas
10/10/15 @ Kansas St
10/17/15 @ Iowa St
10/29/15 WVU
11/7/15 @ Oklahoma St
11/14/15 Kansas
11/21/15 @ Oklahoma
11/27/15 Baylor

It looks like the best chance before the bowl season for the trophy to leave the Big 12 is the season opener at Minnesota. Then if the Golden Gophers can beat Colorado St, Kent St, Ohio, Northwestern, Purdue and Nebraska, the Little Brown Jug won't be the only trophy at stake on Halloween!

Go Gophers (for the next 7 games)

Last second field goal brings trophy back to TCU

The ESPN College Gameday crew traveled to Morgantown for this jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy battle. TCU prevailed on Jaden Oberkrom's last second field goal.

Photo by: Tommy Gilligan USA Today Sports

The Horned Frogs trailed for much of the game but the Mountaineers were never able to put them away.

TCU faces Kansas State this coming Saturday in Fort Worth before traveling to Kansas, Texas and hosting Iowa State. If they can keep the trophy this week - they will certainly be favored the rest of the way.

Baylor triumphant in trophy thriller

Baylor scored 24 points in the final 11 minutes to complete a come-from-behind Trophy taking over TCU.

TCU scored 58 points in the loss - the second most for a trophy-game loser in history behind - of course Baylor's 63 points in a loss to WVU in 2012. Who does Baylor play next week?

WVU.

The Bears had a long run with the trophy in 2012-2013. They beat Kansas St in November of 2012 and rattled off 12 more victories before falling to Oklahoma St in November of last year.

Baylor is 23-11 all time in trophy games. Their remaining schedule is all conference games.

After going to Morgantown this weekend, they have a bye week. Their remaining schedule is:

11/01 - Kansas
11/08 - at Oklahoma
11/22 - Oklahoma St
11/29 - Texas Tech
12/06 - Kansas St.

At least three close match-up there.

As one of the 6 remaining undefeated teams, Baylor is certainly in playoff consideration. There is a chance the Trophy could make it to the playoffs in it's first season!

TCU takes the trophy from Oklahoma

While I was sitting in the stands at the birthplace of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy - TCU was shocking Oklahoma 37-33 to make the trophy theirs!

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Horned Frogs have only won the trophy once before. In October of 1991 they defeated Rice only to lose to Baylor a week later. They've also played for the trophy sic other times. Losing to LSU in 1959, Ohio St in 1969, USC in 1977, BYU in 1996, and Texas Tech and Kansas St. in 2012.

TCU travels to Baylor this weekend in a match-up of top-ten teams.