Fiesta Bowl Prediction based on Historical Data

 Michigan is 242-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 0-1 in the 11th attended games of the season
M is 8-8 in Bowl games
M is 2-3 in December
M is 92-22 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 17-5 vs “Religious” schools
M is 1-1 vs schools from the Big 12
M is 56-11 when facing a team for the 1st time
M is vs 7-1 all schools from Texas
M is 39-19 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 8-7 when playing their first game in a new state
M is 6-6 west of the Mississippi River
M is 6-5 in NFL stadiums
M is 4-2 in domes
M is 80- 27-1 on natural turf
M is 67-23 in 2:30, 3:30, 4 or 4:30 starts
M is 4-2 when playing for their 10th consecutive attended win
M is 84-19 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 65-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 1-0 vs Sonny Dykes
M football is 42-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 88-41 vs ranked opponents
M is 7-4 when ranked #2
M is 0-2 vs teams ranked #3
M is 18-3 vs. teams with purple as one of their primary colors
M is 235-61-1 on Saturday
M is 122-43 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance 

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 32

TCU 23

College Football Playoff Standings don't matter, until they do...

Regardless of what the rankings are tonight, I think only 5 teams control their destiny for the playoffs. Georgia, Michigan St, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State would make the playoffs by winning out.

Here's my thoughts on the hierarchy of who would make the playoffs:

undefeated Georgia

undefeated MSU

1 loss Alabama

undefeated Oklahoma

1 loss Georgia

1 loss B1G champ

1 loss Michigan where MSU is undefeated

undefeated Cincinnati

1 loss Oregon

1 loss Notre Dame

undefeated Wake Forest

2 loss Alabama

1 Loss MSU - loss to OSU

1 Loss B12 champ

 

I thought Michigan was in with winning out, but I don't think they'd get in with this scenario:

12-1 SEC Champ Alabama

13-0 MSU

13-0 Oklahoma

11-1 Georgia

 

The biggest chaos potential would be if the B1G West Champ wins the B1G, not sure a 1 loss MSU or a 2 loss OSU or Michigan makes it in in that scenario

 

Is a no-SEC team playoff possible?

We'll see how this weeks Playoff Rankings affect things - but I think there is a reasonable - not sure how likely - chance that the SEC could be left out of the playoffs.
Here are the remaining games for teams in consideration.

team	week 10	week 11	week 12	Conf Champ
Miss St	Alabama	Vanderbilt	Miss	?
FSU	Miami	BC	Florida	win
Auburn	Georgia	Samford	Alabama	?
Oregon		Colorado	Oregon St	asu win
Alabama	Miss St	W Carolina	Auburn	?
TCU	Kansas	Texas	Iowa St
Az St	Oregon St	Wazoo	AZ	ORE loss
Mississippi		Arkansas	Miss St	?
Baylor	Ok St	Texas Tech	Kansas St
Nebraska	Wisconsin	Minnesota	Iowa	OSU
OSU	Minnesota	Indiana	Michigan	Nebraska

Here are my assumptions:
Miss St loses to Alabama and Ole Miss
Alabama beats Miss St and loses to Auburn
Ole Miss beats Miss St
Auburn at least beats Alabama
I think you would have a 4 way tie for the SEC West title between Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Mississippi St. I have no idea how the tie-breaker would work.
Missouri (not listed) wins the SEC East - I think as long as they don't lose twice - they will.
Missouri wins SEC Championship Game
FSU wins out including the ACC Championship game
Oregon and Arizona St win out, with Oregon winning the PAC-12 championship game
Ohio State and Nebraska win out - and whichever one wins the B1G championship game, wins it decisively.
Baylor and TCU win out.

Definitely in:
Florida St 13-0

Really likely in:
Oregon 12-1 with wins over two 2-loss teams
TCU 11-1 - only loss to 12-1 Baylor

Fighting for the last spot:
Baylor 11-1
Ohio State/Nebraska winner 11-2 - I feel like Ohio State has the stronger case beating MSU on the road? - But Nebraska has the better loss
Missouri 11-2 SEC Champ that lost to Indiana
SEC West Champ 10-3
non-SEC West champs 10-2

This scenario would get us an 8 team playoff NEXT YEAR - or sooner

sarcasMike College Football Playoff 2013

I've done this a few times in the past so it seems like a good time to break it out again.

My playoff preference would be:

All conference champs
Use the BCS and the CFRC to select the at-large teams
Avoid conference match-ups in the first round
Home games until at least the semi finals
At-large teams play on the road when facing a conference champ
Some sort of bias for independents if they are ranked highly enough

Our 10 conference champs (with CFRC rank) are (after the jump)

sarcasMike NCAA playoff 2011

Everyone with an internet connection has an idea for a college football playoff - why not me.

16 teams - 11 conference champions + top 5 teams in the CFRC*
No same conference match-ups in the first round
Games on campus until final - have to win your conference to host a 1st round game
Only way an at-large team can host is if they are playing a lowered seeded at large team
Championship at Rose Bowl

Auto Qualifiers (rank)
LSU (1)
Oklahoma State (3)
Oregon (5)
Wisconsin (8)
TCU (19)
Clemson (21)
Southern Mississippi (23)
West Virginia (28)
Arkansas State (36)
Northern Illinois (41)
Louisiana Tech (44)

At Large Teams
Alabama (2)
Stanford (4)
Boise State (6)
Oklahoma (7)
Arkansas (9)

First teams out
USC (10)- they are on probation and couldn't compete anyway
Michigan (11)
South Carolina (12)
Kansas State (13)
Baylor (14)

I guess Oklahoma getting in would be the biggest complaint. If you want to swap out any of these teams go ahead. Since M would be the first team in, I say we go ahead and do that! We have to do some shuffling to avoid the first round match-up with Wisconsin.

So the seeded bracket would be:

16 La Tech
@ 1 LSU

7 Arkansas
@ 8 Wisconsin

12 So Miss
@ 5 Oregon

4 Stanford
@ 13 WVU

14 Ark St
@ 3 Ok State

6 Boise
@ 11 Clemson

9 Michigan
@ 10 TCU

2 Alabama
@ 15 NIU


*In a perfect world the at-large bids would be chosen by a selection committee, but until we get one of those, I'll use the CFRC.

Two other playoff ideas

In addition to the world renowned sarcasMike playoff, I stumbled across these two playoff suggestions.

WhatIfSports has a suggestion very similar to mine. Eleven conference champs plus five at-large teams. They use the BCS rankings instead of the CFRC, so the teams are slightly different. If you look back at their previous years, Michigan has been in the tournament twice, in 2004 and 2006, with their best finish #2 in 2006.

The second example is from an actual 1998 patent application. It's not the easiest read, but it looks like a 12 team playoff with the teams determined by a combination of the media and coaches poll and an objective formula. The top 4 teams get byes. Games are at campus sites at least until the final four. This suggestion also has a secondary 16 team playoff with the next 16 teams. I assume this takes the place of bowl games.

Obviously I prefer the system that includes conference champs over one that selects the entire field subjectively. I wonder how the secondary playoff would do compared to keeping the majority of the bowls in tact, interesting idea.

Pairings for 2010 sarcasMike college football playoff

Conference champs (with CFRC Rank)
Oregon (1)
Auburn (2)
TCU (3)
Boise St (5 - wins 3 way tie-breaker)
Oklahoma (6)
Ohio State (7 - wins 3 way tie breaker)
Va Tech (14)
Central Florida (34)
Connecticut (50)
Miami-Ohio (70)
Florida International (86)

At large teams
Stanford (4)
Arkansas (8)
Wisconsin (9)
Alabama (10)
Missouri (11)

First teams out are LSU, Oklahoma State & Nebraska. I don't have a real problem with any of them being left out.

Have to rotate Va Tech, Wisconsin & Mizzou to avoid conference games as well as non-champs hosting a first round game.

16 FIU @
1 Oregon

8 Arkansas@
12 Va Tech

4 Stanford @
13 UCF

11 Missouri @
5 Boise St

14 UConn @
3 TCU

9 Wisconsin @
6 Oklahoma

10 Alabama @
7 Ohio State

15 Miami (OH) @
2 Auburn

sarcasMike playoff

With only a few weeks left in the regular season it is time to see where things stand for the sarcasMike NCAA Football Playoff. Here are the ground rules:

• All 11 conference champs make the 16 team field.
• The remaining at-large teams are selected based on CFRC ranking.
• Notre Dame (or any independent) makes the field if they have a CFRC ranking of 20 or better.
• No intra-conference match-ups in the opening round
• First two rounds are held at campus sites
• Only conference champs can host an opening round match-up

Most conferences are still up for grabs - the current leaders looks to be:

ACC - Va Tech
Big East - Pitt
Big Ten - OSU (in my world the tie breaker goes to the CFRC not the BCS)
Big Twelve - Nebraska
C-USA - UCF
MAC - NIU
Mountain West - TCU
Pac Ten - Oregon
SEC - Auburn
Sun Belt - Florida Int
WAC - Boise St

If that followed the 5 at-large teams would be:

Stanford
LSU
Alabama
Oklahoma St
Arkansas

The first 5 teams out would be Wisconsin, Missouri, Oklahoma, MSU and South Carolina

There are some likely gripes there - especially with 4 teams from the SEC making the tourney

The brackets would be:

16 Florida Int@ 1 Oregon
8 Ok State @ 9 Ohio St
11 Arkansas@ 4 Boise St
5 Stanford @ 13 Northern Illinois
15 Pittsburgh @ 2 TCU
7 Alabama @ 10 Nebraska
14 UCF @ 3 Auburn
6 LSU @ 12 Va Tech

Arkansas, Va Tech and UNI move around to avoid the LSU-Ark match-up and ensure home games only for the conference champs. In doing that Boise St goes from hosting UNI to hosting Arkansas.

This is probably about as messy as it has been in the 3 years I've been making this up. Hopefully the last 3 weeks clear things up a little better. If it ended up this way, it would be the first time I felt like deserving teams were being left out. I think part of that is because of the large number of 1 & 2 loss schools from the B-10, B-12, SEC.

WTKA is stupid

Ira keeps talking about how there are going to be 4 super leagues and the winners of the four leagues will be in a 4 team playoff.

Doesn't he pay attention? Attorneys for the non super conference schools would make a lot of money with that set up.

FBS Conference realignment

With all the talk about adding teams to the Big1T1en, I thought maybe the best thing to do would be to realign all the conferences. My criteria was create ten twelve team conferences. Based geographically. This would result in 16 team tournament with the conference champions and 6 at large teams.

Here is my first attempt at the 10 conferences:

Far West	Mountain	Plains	Rio Grande	Great Lakes
Arizona	Ore St	Iowa	Baylor	Ball St
ASU	WSU	Iowa St	Houston	CMU
Cal	Oregon	Kansas	NMSt	EMU
Fresno St	Washington	KSU	No Tex	Illinois
Hawaii	Colorado	Minnesota	Rice	Indiana
Nevada	BYU	Mizzou	SMU	Michigan
SDSU	Utah	Nebraska	TCU	MSU
SJSt	Air Force	Ok St	Texas	NIU
Stanford	Colorado St	Oklahoma	Tx A&M	Northwestern
UCLA	Boise St	Tulsa	Tx Tech	Notre D
UNLV	Idaho	Wisconsin	UNM	Purdue
USC	Utah St	Wyoming	UTEP	WMU
Ohio Valley	Gulf	South East	Mid Atlantic	NorthEast
Akron	Ark St	Alabama	Clemson	Army
BGSU	Arkansas	Auburn	Duke	BC
Cincinnati	La Tech	Fl Atl	ECU	Buffalo
Kent	LSU	Fl Int	Ga Tech	Maryland
Kentucky	Memphis	Florida	Georgia	Navy
Louisville	Miss St	FSU	NC St	Penn St
Marshall	Mississippi	Miami	So Carolina	Pitt
Miami (OH)	So Miss	MTSU	Tennessee	Rutgers
Ohio	Tulane	S. Flo	UNC	Syracuse
Ohio St	ULL	Troy	Va Tech	Temple
Toledo	ULM	UAB	Virginia	U Conn
WKU	Vandy	UCF	Wake	WVU

sarcasmike National Championship

Florida takes on Texas at the Rose Bowl (actually at UCLA since I haven't unlocked the Rose Bowl "game" yet)
5 Texas turnovers make the difference
The final is Florida 51 Texas 21
Florida QB #15 is the game and playoff MVP (the Conn-sarcasMike trophy)
The full tournament bracket is recapped here

sarcasMike Semi: Virginia Tech @ Texas

Virginia Tech takes the pride of the ACC into this semi with the Longhorns
Both Herbstreit and Corso like Texas - even without Heisman finalist QB #12
Tech wins the toss and takes the ball
A quick 3-and-out for the Hokies
Texas strikes without much difficulty - 71 yards in 6 plays - capped by a 19 yd strike from #17 to WR#8; PAT makes it 7-0 Texas
Aided by a roughness penalty - Tech answers on an 80 yard 13 play drive
#5 hits WR#19 from 18 yds out and the PAT ties it at 7 with 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter
Tech forces a punt and takes over on their own 23
But #5 finds the wrong jersey as MLB#11 picks off a pass and returns it to the Tech 45
A holding penalty squashes this drive and Texas punts it down to the Tech 13
Tech cannot get anything going; Texas takes over on their own 38
#17 hits 2 big passes (20 & 22 yds) then scores on a 1 yd plunge; Texas 14 VaTech 7 with just over 6 minutes left in the half
A Tech fumble give the Longhorns good field position but 3 incomplete passes lead to a touchback punt
Another Tech turnover on another interception by MLB #11 and it is Texas ball on the Hokie 30
HB#31 scores on 3rd an short making it 21-7 Texas
MLB#11 Texas is becoming #5's favorite target and Texas takes over again this time on their own 29
The half ends with Texas scrambling the FG team on as time expires - poor clock management
The stats show Texas domination; 237 total yards to 141; yet 7 trips to the redzone for Texas yielded only 3 TDs.
If the Hokies can hold on to the ball in the 2nd half they might be able to make a comeback
The winds might be changing - Texas turns it over on a fumble early in the half- Tech ball on the Texas 44
But they can't take advantage and punt it through the enzone for a touchback
Texas doesn't waste much time; marching 80 yds in 8 plays for a 4yd TD scamper by HB#31; 28-7 Texas
After a quick Hokie possession; LOLB #40 picks of a #17 pass and Tech is in business at the Texas 23
#5 finally finds his own team on an 8yd connection with WR#81; cutting the lead to 28-14
#17 forget the interception and marches his team back down for a score - another TD pass this time to WR#9; 35-14 late in the 3rd
Tech answers on a 10 play (including a 4th down conversion early in the drive) 74 yd drive; HB#32 scores from 2 yds out; 35-21 Tech needs a stop or a turnover
They don't get either but Texas does settle for a 19 yd FG by #15 making it 38-21 with under 4 minutes left
Tech gets only 5 yds on a 4th and 10 - this should wrap it up
Texas adds a meaningless FG making the final 41-21
Texas MLB #11 with his 3 picks, 10 tackles and forced fumble is named the MVP
This sets up a final between Texas and Florida
The plan is to play this simulation on the day of the BCS championship game; see you then

sarcasMike's Semi; Georgia tech @ Florida

Georgia Tech @ Florida

Florida has 2 road victories how will things go in the Swamp? How will they play now that their coach has announced he's stepping down after the season.

Herbstreit likes Florida
Corso puts on the YellowJacket head for an upset pick!
Florida wins the toss and defers
19 play 77 yd drive (mostly on hte ground) ends with a 2 yd TD by FB #21; PAT makes it 7-0 Tech
Florida is playing without HB#2 who was injured last week
After a TD pass is called back on a holding penalty, Florida settles for a 28 yd FG by K#38; 7-3 Tech
Tech has a quick 3 and out and we move to the 2nd quarter with Florida in possession at the Tech 32
Seven plays later the Gators are in the endzone on a 9 yd pass from #15 to WR#16; PAT makes it 10-7 Gators
Tech moved the ball into Gator territory but a sack on 3rd down forces a punt
Florida takes over on their own 4
3-and-out give Tech the ball on the gators 44
They drive into the redzone but miss a 3rd down pass and the subsequent 30 yard FG to keep the score at 10-7
Florida moves into Tech territory but their drive stalls, the half ends 10-7 Gators
Pertinent stats:

	Tech	Fla
1st downs	11	12
Offense	156	180
Rush/yds	27 -110	4 - 15
com-att-int	5-9-0	15-23-0
Pass yds	46	165
3rd down	3-7	2-4
TOP	16:40	13:20

Points to an evenly matched game - 2nd half turnovers or defensive lapses could be the difference
Florida has little success on their first possession a good punt puts Tech back to their own 16
Tech's punter is not as successful as the Gators regain possession at their own 30
Tech FS #22 picks off a #15 pass and Tech takes over on their own 41
Gator defense pushes them backwards they punt on 4th and 18 - Gators take over at their own 25
Yet another 3-and-out - Tech ball at their own 31
A big 22 yd play-action pass from #9 to WR#8 keeps the drive alive
Then HB #20 rips off a 28 yd scamper into the endzone; the PAT makes it 14-10 Tech late in the 3rd
Florida starts promisingly with a 20 yard pass on 2nd down but a penalty later in the drive forces a punt
Tech takes over on their own 12
First play of the 4th quarter ends with Tech facing 4th and inches from their own 20 - they punt - Gators ball on their own 35
Big 13 yd pass on 3rd and 12 keeps the Gators drive alive
two more 3rd down conversions on 6 and 3 yard runs by HB #3 keep moving the chains
#15 drives into the endzone on a 2 yard keeper; PAT makes it 17-14
Gators pick off a #9 pass and take over on the Tech 44 with under 3 minutes left
For whatever reason the Gators throw 3 incompletions leaving 2:23 on the clock for Tech
They take over on their own 20 - their option offense not really a 2-minute drill specialist
CB#5 probably ices the Finals birth with a pick at the Gators 40 with under 2 minutes left
#15 hits HB#3 on 3rd and 8 for a 20 yd gain and that seals it
Florida moves into the first sarcasMike National Championship Game by beating Georgia Tech 17-14

Florida QB #15 finishes 26-46-265 with 1TD and 1 Int and the MVP
Florida will face the winner of the Virginia Tech - Texas game

sarcasmike Second Round Summary

9) Georgia Tech 40
1) Alabama 37 (OT)

5) Florida 40
4)TCU 14

14) Penn St 13
11) Virginia Tech 31

7) Oregon 17
11) Texas 45

Would it make more sense to play the semis at home venues or in Bowl type games? I'm going to go with home venues to make less travel required.

Second Round Saturday; Oregon @ Texas

Texas playing tonight without their Heisman finalist QB#12
Nessler says the game can go either way
Herbstreit likes Texas DE #2 and Corso agrees
Texas defers
Oregon runs a fake punt on 4th and 11 at the Texas 44 and only get 4 yards
Texas gets a few first downs and scores on a 48 yd FG by #15; 3-0 Longhorns
Later in the quarter Texas takes advantage of a running into the punter penalty; keeping the drive alive which results in a 3 yd TD run by HB#31; 10-0 Texas
Oregon CB#17 intercepts a pass to start the 2nd qtr - this is followed by a 35yd pass from QB#8 to TE#83
And then by an interception by Texas FS #12
He gets another interception later in the half
This leads to a scoring drive of 7 plays 45 yards and a TD pass to WR#8; Texas 17-0
Oregon seems to be no match for the 'Horns another quick possession for Oregon and then another TD for Texas QB#17 to WR#5; 24-0
the teams throw back to back interceptions (Oregon then Texas); Oregon ball with ~2 minutes in the half
They strike quickly on a 4 yd run by QB#8
Two-point conversion is successful by HB#21; 24-8 Texas
Texas answers with 18 seconds left on a dive by HB#31; 31-8 at the half
The Longhorns have 299 yards of offense in the 1st half and took advantage of 4 Oregon turnovers
Texas makes it 38-8 late in the 3rd qtr
Texas continues to dominate - a late rally makes the final score Texas 45 Oregon 17
Texas QB #17 with his 406 yards passing and 4 TDs is the MVP again playing well for #12
Texas will face Virginia Tech in the semi finals

Second Round Saturday; Florida @ TCU

TCU knocked off an SEC school in the first round, lets see if they can do it again...
40 degrees at TCU for a 3:30 eastern kickoff
Herbstreit likes Florida LB #51 and Corso also takes the Gators
Florida won the toss and will take the ball
After a few quick strikes a questionable defensive holding call keeps the Gators drive alive at the TCU 28
3 plays later QB#15 hits WR#83 for 8 yds and the score; missed PAT by #38 (what is it with SEC kickers>) keeps it at 6-0
After a 3-and-out by TCU, the Gators drive and settle for a redeeming FG by #38 from 42 yds out; 9-0 Florida
TCU fumbles the kickoff return - Gators regain possession @ the TCU 26
They get nothing and miss a 48 yd FG
TCU get a couple first downs but is forced to punt
#15 marches Florida down the field and again hits #83 for a TD; PAT makes it 16-0
Defenses start to dominate and Florida takes advantage of better punting to start @ TCUs 48 with 5 minutes to go in the half
They fake a punt on 4th and 7 and P#17 gets tackled for a loss
TCU takes advantage scoring on a 7 play drive with a 3 yd run by HB#18; 16-7 Gators
Florida CB#28 picks off a pass at the TCU 37 with under a minute left in the half
K#38 stays in the highlights by hitting a 27 yarder as the half expires; 19-7 Gators
At the half Florida leads in total offense 231-138 including and air advantage of 191-101
TCU starts poorly throwing a pick to SS#35 and picking up a face mask penalty on the tackle
Gators ball at the TCU 7
Quick TD strike to WR#11; 26-7 Florida
Florida's defense dominates the 3rd quarter and their offense picks up another TD late with a pass to #83 again (his 3rd TD catch); 33-7 Florida
TCU picks off a pass midway through the 4th - taking over at the Gators 27
An incompletion on 4th and 7 might just spell the end for the Frogs
Former Heisman winner throws his 5th TD pass this time to #11 again; 40-7
TCU gets a garbage TD late to make the final 40-14
Florida expected to be playing Alabama next, but instead they get Georgia Tech
The stats tell the story of a blowout
466 yards of offense to 262; 379 yards passing to 185

Second Round Saturday; GaTech @ Alabama

Everyone picks Bama
They win the toss and defer
After the 2 teams trade short possessions, GaTech gets tricky with a 16yd pass from HB#24 to WR#8 moving into 'Bama territory
But the drive ends scoreless after a missed 50yd FG by K#14
LONG drive by GaTech closes the quarter and starts the 2nd; 18 plays and 94 yards ending in a 5 yd pass from QB#9 to FB#36; 7-0 Georgia Tech
Lots of defense played until with Alabama connects on a bomb from QB#12 to TE#84 for a 48 yd TD; 7-7 with 1:16 in the half
That score holds to the half
And only a few seconds longer as CB#28 returns the 2nd half kickoff 104 yards for a TD; 'Bama 14-7
Tech methodically answers with 35 yd FG following a 10 play 40 yard drive all on the ground; 14-10 ' Bama
Tech intercepts and takes over near midfield with 4:11 left in the 3rd qtr
but give it back after a fumble on the Tide 10 yd line
Tech starts the 4th qtr backed up to their own 8 - but FB#21 rambles 92 yds for the score on the option dive! 17-14 Georgia Tech
Alabama answers as they have all season with a 12 play 80 yd drive, they score on a 4 yd pass from #12 to TE #17, but #99 misses the PAT; 20-17 Tide
With under 4 minutes left, Tech goes for it on 4th and short at midfield and converts
But at the 2 minute mark they are more conservative and take a 24 yd FG on 4th and 2 tying the game @ 20
The kickoff is a touchback; Tide ball at their own 20
2 costly penalties a holding and an offensive interference, make it 3rd and 18 at the Tide 25 with 36 seconds to play - looks like OT and it is...
Alabama has the ball first in OT
They score in 2 plays; 20 yards in the air and a 5 yd TD run by Heisman winning HB#22; 27-20 Bama
Tech faces a 4th and goal at the 9 - TD pass from #9 to WR#84; PAT ties it @27
2nd possessions - Tech takes 5 plays to get back in the endzone on a dive by HB#20; 34-27 Yellow Jackets
Alabama answers with a 1 yd strike from #12 to FB#40; tied @34
Now teams must go for 2 if they score a TD
Alabama goes first and settles for a 27 yd FG by #99, taking a precarious 37-34 lead
FB#21 (the game MVP) ends it with a 2 yard blast making the final Georgia Tech 40 Alabama 37

The tabelizer program screwed up, but the most interesting stat is Georgia Tech's 368 yards on the ground!
The Yellow Jackets will face the winner of the Florida -TCU game

Second Round Saturday; PSU @ VaTech

The noon game is 14th seed Penn State @ 11th seed Virginia Tech
It is snowing in Virginia
Herbstreit picks VaTech because of HB#32
Corso picks PennSt
VaTech wins the toss and defers
PSU drives 51 yards down the field in 10 plays resulting in a 39 yd FG by K#36; 3-0 PSU
Vatech gets 1 first down then punts
3-and-out for PSU
But VaTech throws an interception to FS#28; PSU ball on the Hokies 32 yard line
The Lions turn it into 7 points on a TD pass from #17 to WR#8; 10-0 PSU
2nd quarter starts with Tech driving 4 plays in and 50 yards so far
Another interception ends the drive - 22 yd return by SS #4 puts the ball down to Tech's 33
23 yd FG by #36 makes it 13-0 PSU
Later in the half after a PSU fumble, Tech is getting something going
they have a TD called back on a holding penalty
Settle for a 34 yd FG attempt that is missed by K #6; still 13-0 Penn St
Penn State is in hte 2 minute drill, they convert on a 4th and 6 at the Tech 40
Holding penalties on 3 consecutive plays, one a TD really hurts this drive
PSU has it 2nd and goal from the 27...
The series ends on an interception in the end zone by SS #4; score remains 13-0 to the half
Half time stats:

	PSU	VT
1s downs	15	8
Offense	274	142
Rushing	64	56
Passing	210	86
3rd down	1-7	1-5
turnovers	1	2
Possession	8:45	6:15

On their second possession of the 2nd half Tech mounts a drive and get a 17 yard TD pass from QB#5 to WR#19; 13-7 PSU
The Hokies follow that up with a 42 yard interception return for a TD by CB#22, the PAY makes it 14-13 Tech
PSU goes nowhere on their next drive and fumbles the snap on the punt; Tech ball at the PSU 17
They settle for a 37 yd FG; 17-13 Tech
They've scored 17 points in just over 10 minutes
No scoring the rest of the quarter, we enter the 4th still at 17-13 Tech
Defenses dominate early in the 4th
Midway though Tech mounts an 11 play 75 yd drive that culminates in a 1 yd TD by HB #20; 24-13 Tech with under 5 minutes left
Paterno punts with 4:10 left 4th and 10 at midfield down by 9???
Gets a 3-and-out
3:37 left Penn State ball at their own 43
They fail on 4th and 5; 3:03 left
Tech goes on 4th and inched from the PSU 41 with 2:25 left - the Lions stop them
This must be their last chance... 4-and-out with 1:37 left
Since PSU is using their timeouts, the Hokies decide to score; 4 yd TD by HB#20 makes it a 31-13 final
Hokies shut down the Penn State offense in the 2nd half

	PSU	VT
1s downs	19	18
Offense	377	348
Rushing	83	153
Passing	294	195
3rd down	2-16	5-15
turnovers	2	2
Possession	37:03	22:57

Tech HB#20 filling in after HB#32 was injured (and is out 5 weeks!) finished with 116 yards and 2 TDs for the game MVP.
Vatech will face the winner of the Oregon-Texas game

SarcasMike Playoff 1st round summary

16) Troy 0
1) Alabama 21

9) Georgia Tech 24
8) Ohio State 7

5) Florida 31
12) Central Michigan 28

13) Louisiana State 19
4) Texas Christian 44

11) Virginia Tech 38
6) Boise State 17

14) Penn State 44
3) Cincinnati 15

10) Iowa 17
7) Oregon 48

15) East Carolina 0
2) Texas 40

So the 2nd round is:
GaTech @ Alabama
Florida @ TCU
Penn St @ VaTech
Oregon @ Texas

SarcasMike Playoff game 8 ECU @ Texas

60 degrees and clear in Austin
Everyone likes Texas - big
ECU takes the football after winning the toss
ECU moves the ball near midfield but fumbles
Texas does nothing with a 3-and-out
ECU manages to get tackled in their own endzone for a safety on the punt return; 2-0 Texas
After the teams trade scoreless series, Texas drives 77 yards in 10 plays taking a 9-0 lead on a 15 yard pass from QB#12 to WR#8
ECU has a 41 yard TD pass called back on a holding penalty - the drive ends in a punt
Defenses take control through the middle of the half
Texas scores again another TD pass from #12 to #8 makes it 16-0 with about 4 minutes left in the half
ECU fumble is traded for a Texas interception
punt - punt
Late in half Texas QB breaks his toe! He's expected to be out 3 weeks! Oregon likes their chances either way next week now...
After another ECU fumble, Texas back-up #17 connects on a TD pass to WR #9; 23-0 Texas at the half
Texas HB #2 scores on their first possession of the half making it 30-0
Texas blocks a punt late in the 3rd quarter setting up good field position
It yields a FG making it 33-0
The Texas defense is in control; FS#12 returns an interception to the house making it 40-0 with 5 minutes left
That's how it ends 40-0 Texas
Although QB#17 filled in well against ECU, the loss of QB #12 does not bode well for the Longhorns against Oregon