sarcasMike College Football Playoff 2013

I've done this a few times in the past so it seems like a good time to break it out again.

My playoff preference would be:

All conference champs
Use the BCS and the CFRC to select the at-large teams
Avoid conference match-ups in the first round
Home games until at least the semi finals
At-large teams play on the road when facing a conference champ
Some sort of bias for independents if they are ranked highly enough

Our 10 conference champs (with CFRC rank) are (after the jump)


Florida State (1)
Auburn (2)
Michigan State (4)
Stanford (5)
Baylor  (6)
Central Florida (23)
Fresno State (29)
Bowling Green (35)
Rice (50)
Louisiana-Lafayette (72)

at large bids would go to:
Alabama (3)
Ohio State (7)
Missouri (8)
South Carolina (9)
Oregon  (10)
Oklahoma (11)

This would give us bowl seeds of
1 Florida St
2 Auburn
3 Alabama

4 Michigan St
5 Stanford
6 Baylor
7 Ohio St
8 Missouri
9 South Carolina
10 Oregon
11 Oklahoma
12 UCF
13 Fresno St
14 BGSU
15 Rice
16 ULL

Opening games would be
16 ULL at 1 Florida State
9 So Car at 8 Missouri
13 Fresno St at 4 MSU
12 UCF at 5 Stanford
15 Rice at 2 Auburn
10 Oregon at 7 Ohio State
3 Alabama at 14 BGSU
11 Oklahoma at 6 Baylor

That would have 2 at-large teams hosting first round games - I don't like that. We can move up OSU and Mizzou and drop Michigan State, Stanford and Baylor to get:

16 ULL at 1 Florida State
8 Mizzou at 12 UCF
10 Oregon at 5 Stanford
11 Oklahoma at 4 MSU
15 Rice at 2 Auburn
7 Ohio St at 13 Fresno St  
9 So Car at 6 Baylor
3 Alabama at 14 BGSU


Then we need to switch MSU and Stanford to not have a Pac12 opening round game.

16 ULL at 1 Florida St
8 Mizzou at 12 UCF
10 Oregon at 4 MSU
11 Oklahoma at 5 Stanford
15 Rice at 2 Auburn
7 Ohio State at 13 Fresno St
9 So Car at 6 Baylor
3 Alabama at 14 BGSU

Using 10,000 simulations on The Prediction Machine The first round winners are:
Fla State (94%)
Mizzou (62%)
Oregon (54%)
Stanford (65%)
Auburn (74%)
Ohio State (65%)
Baylor (57%)
Alabama (71%)

Second round (total percent of wining second round):
Fla State (70%)
Stanford (36%)
Auburn (44%)
Alabama (40%)

Semifinals:
Florida State (45%)
Alabama (23%)

Champion
Florida State (31%)

Full odds