2021 Trophy update

Alabama - took possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy in November last year and haven't looked back. Mercer was no match this weekend - although I'm sure Saban has plenty of coaching of coaching points from the 48-14 vicotry.

Their closest match-up in that 7 game span was the 52-46 victory over Florida in the SEC Championship. Who does Alabama play this weekend - Florida...

We'll see if the Gators can match or improve on that effort in the Swamp.

Peach Bowl prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 218-62-1 in all games I have attended - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated

M is 212-58-1 against teams from states I have been to
M is 83-20 in non-conference games

M is 7-2 vs. the SEC
M is 36-16 away from Michigan Stadium

M is 1-0 in a stadium that have Mercedes Benz in its name

M is 2-1 in domed stadiums

M is 8-6 in Bowl Games
M is 3-0 vs. Florida

With the 4^th game between these 2, Florida trails only Notre Dame, Western Michigan and Miami (Ohio) as most common non-conference opponents

M is 127-21 vs. schools with animal based nicknames
M is 140-44-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 9-2 when ranked #8

M is 1-2 vs. teams ranked #10

M is 16-21 vs teams ranked in the top 10

M is 40-8 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team

M is 85-22-1 in noon kickoffs

M is 7-0 in the 9th game I have attended in a season

M is 7-6 the first time I have seen them play in a state

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 24

F 17

Florida prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 205-60-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 36-5 in the first attended games of the season

M is 18-4 when it is actually their first game of the season

M is 71-16 vs. non-conference opponents

M is 2-0 vs. Florida

M is 4-2 vs. teams from the state of Florida

M is 6-2 vs. schools from the SEC

M is 34-16 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 9-0 the second time playing in a particular state

M is 117-21 vs. schools with non-human, animal based mascots

M is 132-43-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine

M is 27-6 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 56-23 in 3:30 starts

M is 84-21-1 vs schools playing out of their time zone

M is 11-3 in the central time zone

M is 2-0 on September 2

M is 6-3 when ranked #11

M is 56-36 vs. ranked opponents

M is 7-1 vs. teams ranked #17

M is 40-19 when previous attended game was a loss

M is 131-68 on artificial turf
M is 3-2 in "Alternate Uniformzzzzzzz" (2-0 when Blue is primary; 1-2 when it is not)

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 28
F 13

Citrus Bowl prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 194-59-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 1-0 vs. Florida
M is 2-2 vs. schools from the state of Florida
M is 5-2 vs. schools from the SEC (Lloyd Carr 5-0 others 0-2)
M is 4-1 in games played in Florida
M is 7-5 in bowl games
M is 5-5 on January 1
M is 29-4 in games starting at 1pm
M is 12-9-1 in the starting QBs last game as a starter (currently counting Shane Morris in that data)
M is 1-0 when the opposing coach shares the same first name as M's head coach
M is 9-1 when ranked 17
M is 1-1 when opponent is ranked 19
M is 44-18 when playing the opposition in their home state
M is 12-5 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 5-4 following games where they've given up 40 or more points (1-0 when it was 42)
M is 29-5 when the next lost would make the total losses attended a number evenly divisible by 10

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

Michigan 20
Florida 13

Once again new trophy holder

Florida's 34-31 overtime victory over Georgia made it another trophy transfer game.

Florida has held the trophy 4 times before. In 1983 the took it away from LSU, then reeled off 2 victories before falling to Auburn. They got it back four years later, beating Alabama on 9/19/87. They could only win one more game before losing it to LSU in early October. It was almost 20 years before they got it back, defeating Ohio State in the 2007 BCS Championship game they won 4 more games before losing to Auburn in late September. Their most recent trophiship occurred with the defeat of Oklahoma in the 2009 BCS Championship game. They won 12 straight before losing to Alabama in the SEC championship game last season.

Florida is definitely not as strong as either of their two most recent trophy teams, but their remaining schedule doesn't look too tough.

11/6 @ Vandy
11/13 So Carolina
11/20 App State
11/27 @ Florida State
If they do win both conference games, they will win the SEC East and would then be in the conference championship game. They would definitely be an underdog against whichever school comes out of the west.