Citrus Bowl prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 194-59-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 1-0 vs. Florida
M is 2-2 vs. schools from the state of Florida
M is 5-2 vs. schools from the SEC (Lloyd Carr 5-0 others 0-2)
M is 4-1 in games played in Florida
M is 7-5 in bowl games
M is 5-5 on January 1
M is 29-4 in games starting at 1pm
M is 12-9-1 in the starting QBs last game as a starter (currently counting Shane Morris in that data)
M is 1-0 when the opposing coach shares the same first name as M's head coach
M is 9-1 when ranked 17
M is 1-1 when opponent is ranked 19
M is 44-18 when playing the opposition in their home state
M is 12-5 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 5-4 following games where they've given up 40 or more points (1-0 when it was 42)
M is 29-5 when the next lost would make the total losses attended a number evenly divisible by 10

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

Michigan 20
Florida 13