Michigan vs Northwestern (at Wrigley) prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 266-71-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 17-3 vs Northwestern (as the 21st time I will be seeing Northwestern, they will move into a tie with Ohio State and Minnesota as the teams I have seen the 3rd most, and tie OSU as M’s second most commonly seen opponent)
M is 44-25 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 17-4 in the central time zone
M is 31-6-1 vs all schools from Illinois
M is 1-0 in MLB baseball stadiums (Wrigley Field will be the 32nd venue in which I have seen M play)
M is 21-2 against teams they scored 50 or more points against in their previous meeting
M is 18-6 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 125-27-1 in noon or 12:30 (eastern) kicks
M is 165-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 7-1 when ranked 18th
M is 196-28-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 101-26 vs. schools with mascots deemed LIGHTER than a Wolverine
M is 39-5 vs teams with cat-based mascots (I am counting Cincinnati since they are the bearCATS)
M is 0-2 on November 15
M is 282-30-1 on natural turf
M is 48-17 in traveling trophy* games (bowl or championship trophies are not included here)

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 21
Northwestern 10

  

*Cal defeated Louisville last weekend and now hold the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy 

M vs Northwestern based on historical data

Michigan is 259-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 16-3 vs Northwestern
M is 30-6-1 vs all schools from Illinois
M is 10-8 in the 9th attended game of the season
M is 160-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 170-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 215-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 on November 23
M is 250-65-1 on Saturday
M is 37-5 vs schools with feline based nicknames (or that include the cat in their nickname)
M is 46-17 in traveling trophy games (bowl or championship trophies are not included here)

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 28
N’western 13

M vs. Northwestern prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 213-62-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 25-8 in the 4th attended games of the season

M is 137-46-1 vs. conference opponents

M is 14-3 vs. Northwestern

M is 35-16 away from Michigan Stadium

M is 6-1 in Illinois

M is 4-1 in Dyche Stadium/Ryan Field

M is 33-9 in the lowest attended game in a season

M is 75-18 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine

M is 35-8 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 1-0 in 4:30 starts

M is 2-0 on September 29

M is 8-0 when ranked #14

M is 156-25-1 vs. unranked opponents

M is 74-22 on natural turf

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 45 Northwestern 17

Northwestern Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 191-57-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 28-2 in the 3rd attended game of the season

M is 124-42-1 vs. conference opponents 

M is 13-3 vs. Northwestern

M is 32-11 vs. private schools

M is 161-42-1 in Michigan Stadium

M is 2-3 against teams ranked #13

M is  5-1 when ranked #18

M is 32-7 on their homecoming (34-7 on all homecomings)

M is 111-21 vs. schools with animal nicknames

M is 30-5 vs. schools with feline nicknames

M is 14-3 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 21-3-1 with #15 starting as their quarterback

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 17

N 6

Northwestern Prediction

In September, this was a trendy pick for the Legends division title. Now, not so much. I have no idea what to think.
It would seem Northwestern's defense might be a cure for Michigan's offensive offense. Of course, I had thought Nebraska's defense would do that. Going on the road, might be a good thing for Michigan - getting away from the booing fans to the friendly confines of Evanston.
This game might be the difference between 6-6 and 7-5.

Michigan 20 Northwestern 17

M vs. Northwestern prediction based on historical data

M is 177-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 118-35-1 in conference games
M is 148-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 50-29 against ranked opponents
M is 26-14 when unranked
M is 7-5 when unranked facing a ranked opponent (5 straight losses)
M is 2-2 against teams ranked #21 (1-1 against #21 Northwestern)
M is 12-3 vs. Northwestern
M is 28-5 when facing schools with "cat" based nicknames
M is 18-7-1 in the 6th game of the season
M is 40-13-1 in November
M is 30-11 vs. Private Schools
M is 21-5 when it was unsure who would start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)
M is 34-7 with #16 as starting QB
M is 7-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 14-3 against teams who are identified with a uniform stripe style (see Northwestern and UCLA)

It's easy when you add it all together...

M 31 Northwestern 17

Countdown to Kickoff - 17 days

November 4, 2000

Michigan 51 - Northwestern 54

Michigan scoring 50+ points against Northwestern is not all that uncommon. I've seen it two other times. I never would have imagined it wouldn't be enough to win.

This game featured so much offense, I won't even waste the time going through all the scoring. Michigan had no answer for the spread offense. The two teams combines for 1189 yards of total offense. Drew Henson threw for 312 yards and 4 TDs - 3 to David Terrell. Anthony Thomas finished with 199 yards and 3 TDs on the ground. The Wildcats had similar numbers, Zak Kustok, had 322 yards threw the air and matched his 2 passing TDs with 2 more on the ground. Damien Anderson ran for 268 yards and 2 more TDs.

Ultimately the game came down to the final 2 minutes. Michigan was clinging to a 51-46 lead. It was 4th and goal for the Wildcats. Northwestern had just had a TD called back on an illegal man down field call moving the ball back to the 12. Kustok had an uncovered Anderson circling out of the backfield. But Michigan got some pressure on Kustok and he had to throw a high looping pass. No one was within 5 yards of Anderson, but he had to make an over the head/shoulder catch and he couldn't make the catch. My seats were like 5 rows up on the sideline in that corner of the endzone, so that all happened right in front of me.

Incomplete - Michigan just needed to run out the clock, and since there had been very few stops all day, Michigan's hopes were high. On a 2nd and 3, Anthony Thomas sealed the game as he broke through the line, if he had just taken a knee immediately after crossing TVs yellow first down line, Michigan wins. But, just like Anderson, he dropped the ball.
With 0:20 left the Wildcats made Michigan pay for their mistake. A successful 2-point conversion made it 54-51. Henson was able to get Michigan into position to attempt a 57 yard field goal to try to send the game to OT. Hayden Epstein had the leg, he had made a 52 yarder earlier. The snap went through John Navarre's hands right into Epstein's. He completed a pass to Evan Coleman but there was not one last miracle.