Michigan vs Indiana prediction based on end of times

I used to post about how few people have actually seen Michigan lose to Indiana. Even the loss in 2020, was not seen by many people in person...

But that changes this week - a full crowd and a large tv crowd will witness it tomorrow

M 21

IU 38

M vs. Indiana prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 246-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 27-10 in the 5th attended game of the season
M is 151-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 18-0 vs. Indiana - the Hoosiers are 0-19 in all games I have attended
M is 161-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 102-33-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames
M is 182-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 11-5 when ranked #2
M is 2-0 on October 14
M is 239-62-1 on Saturday
M is 207-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 117-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 69-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 46-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

Indiana is the only Big Ten team I have not seen defeat Michigan. Next year (unless M were to lose to either of them in a post season game) UCLA and Washington will join that list.

It's easy when you look at the data

M 44

IU 7

M vs IU prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 229-65-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 19-10 in the 7th attended games of the season
M is 140-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 17-0 vs. Indiana
         Indiana is 0-18 in all games I have attended
M is 193-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 93-33-1 vs. schools with Human based nicknames
M is 149-46-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 52-11 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 29-4-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 15-5 in night games
M is 3-0 on November 6
M is 5-2 when ranked #9
M is 168-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 45-19 following an attended loss

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 42

IU 13

M vs. IU vs. COVID Prediction

In the past I've picked on jiMpossible, because he is one of the few people who has seen M lose to Indiana.

It sure seems like this could be the year for more to see it - on TV at least.

M 27

IU 21

Game Week Countdown - Indiana #1

There can only be one. October 27, 1979. Celebrating the 100th year of Michigan Football

Michigan lead 21-14 late in the 4th quarter - I remember watching the alumni cheerleaders/male cheerleaders doing hand walks across the north end-zone when Tim Clifford connected on a long pass that almost tied the score. Moments later he found Dave Harangody for the tying touchdown - leaving Michigan just under a minute to avoid the tie.

John Wangler got M to near midfield with about 20 seconds left when his passed to Lawrence Reid in the flat - M was out of timeouts and Reid would not be able to get the sideline - he "fumbled" the ball via a lateral directly into the hands of Indiana head coach Lee Corso.

After a procedure penalty M had 6 seconds and 45 yards to go. Today this is a Hail Mary, for Michigan in 1979, that was a play action 20 yard pass to Carter, who split the safeties and scored!

Crazy!

Game Week Countdown - Indiana #2

 If you thought the 2010 game had a lot of offense, let me introduce you to the 2013 game.

IU passed for over 400 yards and ran for almost 200 more, Michigan topped both numbers.

Devin Gardner was 21-29 for 503 yards, he also rushed for 80 yards and 3 rushing TDs. Fitzgerald Toussaint finished with 151 yards on the ground and 4 TDs. Jeremy Gallon was the primary target for Gardner, catching 14 passes for 369 yards.

Michigan totaled 751yards of offense!

Like the 2010 game, IU scored first and that was their only lead. From there the score went 7-7, 14-7, 21-7, 21-14, 28-14, 28-17, 28-24, 35-24, 35-31, 35-34, 42-34, 42-40, 49-40, 49-47, 56-57 before reaching the final score 63-47.

Game Week Countdown - Indiana #3

 The 2010 M-IU game was another that came right down to the end. This time Michigan had Denard Robinson to bail out the defense.

Indiana scored first, and 7-0 turned out to be their only lead on the day. But every time M took the lead - IU came right back and matched them. This was a classic RichRod's defense game.

After the Hoosier TD - Robinson ran for a 72 yard score on the second play of Michigan's ensuing possession. The defense got a rare stop and Robinson lead another TD drive - ending with a pass to Roy Roundtree for the 14-7 lead.

Michigan could have gone up two scores - Robinson hit Roundtree again for a 72 yard gain - but he was tackled at the IU 2. Robinson went under center on first down - rather than his usual shot-gun snap - and missed the exchange - IU recovered to keep it 14-7.

The Hoosiers went 99 yards in 13 plays to tie it at 14.

After Michigan jumped back in front - IU scored on the final play of the half to go to the locker rooms tied at 21.

Michigan started the second half off quickly with another 70 yard strike from Robinson, this time on a slant to Junior Hemingway for a 28-21 lead less than a minute into the 3rd quarter.

The defenses forced consecutive punts, then IU tied it back up another scoring drive.

The tie lasted for less than a minute. Vincent Smith swept around end for a 56 yard score to make it 35-28 with 6:10 left in the 3rd quarter.

The 4th quarter was mostly scoreless. IU mounted a scoring drive with just over 7 minutes left, culminating a 13 play six minute drive with a Ben Chappell TD pass, his 3rd of the day, to tie things back up with 75 seconds remaining.

Three Robinson runs and a 42 yard pass to Hemingway put Michigan on the 4 yard line with 17 seconds left.

 

 Robinson did it again - M wins 42-35. Each team had over 550 yards of offense. IU dominated in time of possession, with nearly 42 minutes. Robinson ran for 217 and passed for 277, threw 3 TD passes and rand for 2 more.

Game Week Countdown - Indiana #4

 My first trip to Bloomington was for the 1999 match-up. The game went back and forth as many of the games did in Tom Brady's final season.

Michigan jumped out to a 17-0 lead midway through the second quarter - right about the time Memorial Stadium ran out of hotdogs.

IU cut it to 17-10 at halftime and after a scoreless 3rd quarter, Antwaan Randle El hit 2 TD passes within the first 3 minutes of the t4th quarter to give the Hoosiers a 24-17 lead.

The Wolverines answered back - Brady engineered 4 and 8 play scoring drives to put M back in front 31-24 with less than 7 minutes to go.

Randle El struck quickly to tie the score with a 70 yard scoring strike to Jerry Dorsey to knot the game again at 31.

Brady led a nearly perfect 4 minute drill ending in a Hayden Epstein chip shot field goal with 18 seconds remaining.

That was just enough time for IU to get into Hail Mary Range and with 4 seconds left Randle El rolled to his left and sent one to the end-zone - I remember calling my dad at the time to see if thought M could find a defensive play for once in the 4th quarter. The pass fell incomplete and M secured a 34-31 victory.

Game Week Countdown - Indiana #5

 I've seen M play Indiana 17 times in person - and M has won all 17. The only B1G school I have not seen win. I also saw them lose to MSU in the final game of the 1987 season - clinching the Rose Bowl birth for the Spartans.

I have seen several close games, though. We'll start the week off with the 2009 matchup. It was a back and forth game.

IU lead 26-21 after missing a field goal that could have put them up 8 points. Tate Forcier engineered a 13 play drive that finished with Forcier running in for 6 and then running in for the 2-point conversion shortly thereafter, putting M up 29-26.

The lead was short lived, a holding penalty on the kickoff return had the Hoosiers start from their own 15. Darius Willis broke through the Michigan defense for an 85 yard run to daylight and the PAT made it 33-29, Hoosiers with 8:57 left.

The two defenses traded stops and Michigan got the ball back near midfield with 5:32 left. Michigan rumbled for 2 first downs - switching up Forcier and Denard Robinson at quarterback throughout the drive. Facing 3rd and 7 from the IU 26 yard line - Forcier came back and found Martavious Odoms in the endzone for the score and 36-33 lead.

Donovan Warren ended the Hoosiers last hope with an interception to seal the win.

M vs. Indiana prediction based on continuing to tempt fate

My Indiana predictions recently have pointed to the fact that very few people have seen Michigan lose to Indiana.

jiMpossible will not be in attendance this year and neither will I.

This won't be the year either...

M 38
IU 17

M vs. Indiana predictions based on historical data

Michigan is 217-62-1 in all games I have attended - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated

M is 211-58-1 against teams from states I have been to
M is 134-42-1 in conference games
M is 181-46-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 16-0 vs. Indiana
M is 1-2 when playing a team for the 17th time
M is 87-32-1 vs. schools with Human based nicknames
M is 139-44-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 21-3 when ranked #4

M is 158-25-1 vs. unranked opponents

M is 39-8 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team

M is 69-16 vs teams with a head coach who shares their first name with one of my first cousins

M is 2-0 in 4:00 or 4:30 kickoffs

M is 14-5 in the 8th game I have attended in a season
M is 2-1 on November 17

M is 11-3 when playing for their 8^th consecutive attended victory

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 38

IU 7

M vs Indiana prediction based on I've got a bad feeling about this

As I've posted before not many people alive have seen M lose to Indiana.

In my lifetime M lost in 1967 and 1987. You'll note both of these years end in 7. The Hoosiers also defeated M in 1928, 1936, 1944, 1945 1954, 1958 and 1959. Nine Wolverine losses in 65 meetings.

I'm worried that the Hoosier defense will do a good job stopping Michigan's poor to middling offense. They hung around against the Buckeyes for most of that game. The score vs. Penn State doesn't reflect how close the game was statistically. They held Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries. The total yardage and first downs were very close - the Hoosiers lost the turnover battle 4-1. As M saw last week, it can be tough to overcome turnovers.

The talk from practice about working harder on fumble drills. Means "DON'T FUMBLE" is going to be on the mind of all the M backs and receivers. I'm worried that will backfire into at least one fumble this week.

O'Korn was bad in the rain Saturday night, he was bad last year in the snow against the Hoosiers. The weather does look good for Bloomington Saturday, so maybe the trend here is O'Korn is 2-0 against schools from Indiana? Maybe it's time for the kid from Indiana, Brandon Peters comes out and gets something done?

I can't see this game being an easy victory. The defense will need to stay the course and keep the team in the game.

M 10
IU 9

Indiana prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 204-59-1 in all games I have attended
        - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated
M is 133-44-1 in conference games

M is 15-0 vs. Indiana - Indiana is 0-16 in games I've attended, as I saw them lose to MSU in 1987
M is 74-0 vs teams I haven't seen them lose to

M is 3-1 when playing a team for the 16^th time
M is 170-44-1 in Michigan Stadium

M is 130-68 on artificial turf

M is 131-42-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 20-3 when ranked #4
M is 148-24-1 vs. unranked teams

M is 123-9-1 when ranked vs. an unranked team
M is 26-5 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team
M is 55-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 4-1 in the 10th game I have attended in a season

M is 1-1 on November 19

M is 12-2 against teams with head coaches that share the last name with the main character playing opposite Tom Hanks in a Tom Hanks movie (volleyballs count)

M is 9-1 in the first start of the season for that season's second starting QB

As I've posted before very few people alive have ever seen M lose to Indiana - lets keep it that way

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 38

IU 17

Indiana prediction based on people I know who've seen M lose to IU

Indiana has never had much success in Big Ten football. They've made it to the Rose Bowl once in my lifetime - the 1968 Rose Bowl falling to OJ Simpson' USC Trojans in Pasadena.

Michigan has an overall record vs. Indiana of 54-9. They've only lost to IU twice in my lifetime 27-20 to the 1967 Hoosiers and 14-10 in 1987.

I've seen IU come close several times.

• I was at the famous 1979 game where a tie seemed imminent until Anthony Carter magic happened. M won 27-21
• My first trip to Bloomington in 1999 had IU throwing to the endzone for a chance at victory as time expired. M won 34-31
• The Rich Rodriguez era saw two close victories in 2009 and 2010. Both requiring late Michigan touchdowns and defensive stops to preserve wins for Michigan
• Even the 2013 game that ended up 63-47 was close for most of the game

I personally know one person who has seen M lose to Indiana - and that is jiMpossible. As that 1987 game was not on TV, very few people have seen M lose to Indiana at all. jiMpossible says his family was able to watch an announcer-less feed of that 1987 game on satellite -so that may increase the numbers a little. But I post there are fewer than 100,000 people alive who have seen Michigan lose to Indiana.

That number shouldn't go up Saturday

M 42
IU 20

Indiana prediction based on historical data

M is 188-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 158-41-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 123-41-1 in conference games

M is 14-0 against Indiana

M is 31-20 when unranked

M is 137-24-1 vs, unranked opponents

M is 11-5 in the 8th game I've attended in a season
M is 31-7 on their homecoming (33-7 on all homecomings)
M is 11-2 against teams with head coaches that share the last name with the main character playing opposite Tom Hanks in a Tom Hanks movie (volleyballs count)

It's easy when you add it all up

M 22
IU 21

Indiana Prediction based on historical data

M is 184-49-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 154-34-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 121-35-1 in conference games
M is 13-0 against Indiana
M is 27-14 when unranked
M is 133-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 19-9 when unranked facing an unranked opponent (7 losses in RR era)
M is 5-2 when facing teams for the 14th time
M is 19-7-1 in the 6th game I've seen in a season
M is 2-2 in the head coach's 23rd game (Wins for Mo and LC, losses for Bo and RR)
M is 10-2 against teams with head coaches that share the last name with the main character playing opposite Tom Hanks in a Tom Hanks movie (volleyballs count)

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 35 Indiana 28

Robinson's REAL Drew Stanton moment

I don't know if it was audible on the television, especially since you couldn't watch it at home, but when Robinson went down the Indiana student section cheered loudly.

I know Drew Stanton thinks this happened to him at Michigan when he went down in 2004 - I don't remember it this way. But with Robinson there is no denying it. Robinson was tackled - normal cheer. Then after a few seconds when it became apparent he was still down then the crowd went crazy. I've never seen anything like that. It is one thing to think to yourself "wow, that could help us"... it is quite another to cheer lustily about an injured opponent.

Indiana Prediction Based On Cake Frosting

m34, in 33

Indiana prediction based on historical data

M is 162-43-1 in all games I have attended (all stats are only for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 26-12 in games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 in Memorial Stadiums (at least stadiums known only as "Memorial Stadium")
M is 111-31-1 in conference games
M is 20-5 in the 4th game I have seen in a particular season
M is 29-3 with #16 as starting QB
M is 44-17-1 against human-ish mascots
M is 12-0 against Indiana
M is 3-2 when facing a team for the 13th time
M is 30-7 against schools from the Indiana
M is 2-0 on games played on October 2nd
M is 114-20-1 against unranked teams
M is 8-1 against coaches named Bill
M is 5-0 when ranked 19th
M is 23-3 when ranked 15-19th
M is 140-32-1 when ranked

It's simple when you add it all up:

M 45 - Indiana 27

WTKA Poll Question

Like a lot of WTKA Poll Questions, this one is more prediction than opinion.

What is going to happen on Saturday?
a) Michigan beats Indiana by 21+ points
b) Michigan beats Indiana by 10-20 points
c) Michigan beats Indiana by 1-9 points
d) Indiana upsets Michigan

Not surprisingly, M fans are extremely confident after going 4-0. +21 got 41%, and 10-20 got 39%. Unless everyone that voted c thinks M is going to win by 8 or less, more than 80% of voters think M is going to win by more than a TD. That stat concerns me almost as much as the total yards allowed by the M defense. (not really)