jiMpossible:One thing I'm not sure about: "Hoke's teams have been bad on the road."
Is this really true? Isn't it that M has played tougher teams on the
road,
and has lost a few to teams that M is slightly better than (PSU this year,
Iowa a couple years ago,) . Isn't that just home field advantage? (If M
had lost to UConn, I wouldn't have been able to explain it any more than
explaining an Akron loss).
Tell me if I'm wrong.
sarcasMike: jamie mac says they've been down double digits in 11 of 15 road games under Hoke- that seems like a lot...
jiMpossible: That is a lot, but the final results are what matters. M has been down a
lot of games, home and away; against better teams and worse. I think the
home winning streak is putting more emphasis on the road record. I need
someone (like you) to do a full analysis. Thanks.
I put together a table of M deficits during Hoke's reign:
Season | Opponent | H/A/N | deficit | W/L | rank at time | final/current |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011
|
WMU
|
Home
|
7
|
W
| ||
2011
|
Notre Dame
|
Home
|
17
|
W
| ||
2011
|
EMU
|
Home
|
3
|
W
| ||
2011
|
SDSt
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2011
|
Minnesota
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2011
|
Northwestern
|
Away
|
10
|
W
| ||
2011
|
MSU
|
Away
|
14
|
L
|
23
|
11
|
2011
|
Purdue
|
Home
|
7
|
W
| ||
2011
|
Iowa
|
Away
|
15
|
L
| ||
2011
|
Illinois
|
Away
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2011
|
Nebraska
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
|
17
|
24
|
2011
|
OSU
|
Home
|
7
|
W
| ||
2011
|
VaTech
|
Neutral
|
3
|
W
|
17
|
21
|
2012
|
Alabama
|
Neutral
|
31
|
L
|
2
|
1
|
2012
|
Air Force
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
Massachusetts
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
Notre Dame
|
Away
|
10
|
L
|
11
|
4
|
2012
|
Purdue
|
Away
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
Illinois
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
MSU
|
Home
|
1
|
W
| ||
2012
|
Nebraska
|
Away
|
14
|
L
|
25
| |
2012
|
Minnesota
|
Away
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
Northwestern
|
Home
|
10
|
W
|
21
|
17
|
2012
|
Iowa
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2012
|
OSU
|
Away
|
5
|
L
|
4
|
3
|
2012
|
South Carolina
|
Neutral
|
11
|
L
|
11
|
8
|
2013
|
CMU
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2013
|
Notre Dame
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
|
14
|
24
|
2013
|
Akron
|
Home
|
3
|
W
| ||
2013
|
Connecticut
|
Away
|
14
|
W
| ||
2013
|
Minnesota
|
Home
|
NA
|
W
| ||
2013
|
Penn St
|
Away
|
11
|
L
| ||
2013
|
Indiana
|
Home
|
7
|
W
| ||
2013
|
MSU
|
Away
|
23
|
L
|
24
|
18
|
2013
|
Nebraska
|
Home
| ||||
2013
|
Northwestern
|
Away
| ||||
2013
|
Iowa
|
Away
| ||||
2013
|
OSU
|
Home
| ||||
2013
|
Bowl?
|
Neutral
|
Michigan's record in those games is 4-8 in those games (2-0 at home, 2-6 road, 0-2 neutral). It is worth noting that in in 2 of those losses (Bowl with South Carolina and at Penn State) M did come back to take the lead (even double digit lead vs. PSU - ARGGGGGGHHHH!) before losing.
M has trailed in 21 of these 34 games (12-9 in those games).
I think falling behind by double digits in 35% of your games is not great. Winning a third of those makes it a little better (I would assume that is pretty - good; jiMpossible should follow up on that).
In a totally different era - Bo Schembechler's Wolverines fell behind by double digits 13 times in 21 years... (that is a somewhat educated guess) And I only credit them with one win and one tie in those games.
********UPDATE*****
Added opponents ranking into table. M has faced 10 teams ranked at time of kick off. These games are broken down to 3 at home, 4 on the road and 3 neutral. Only one team unranked at the game time ended up ranked that would add another road ranked team.
So M faced ranked teams in 3 of 18 homes games, 4-5 of 13 road games and 3 of 3 neutral site games. I think it would be safe to say from that data, their home schedule has not been as difficult as their road games.
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ReplyDeleteWait why did you remove your comment? I built a whole update based on your comment!
ReplyDelete