| Conference | slots | eligible | potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | 8 | 9 | 0 |
| Big East | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| BigTen | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Big12 | 8 | 8 | 1 |
| C-USA | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Ind | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| MAC | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| MWC | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| PAC10 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| SEC | 9 | 8 | 2 |
| SunBelt | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| WAC | 4 | 4 | 2 |
The ACC meets its quota and will likely be sending a 9th team bowling.
The 3 Big East schools vying for the one guaranteed spot are Cincinnati, Louisville and Rutgers. Louisville is 5-6 and is ahead of Rutgers 28-0 as I write this, so things look good for them. That is bad news for 4-6 Rutgers. They need to beat Louisville and WVU next week to get to 6-6. Cincinnati is also 4-6 and need wins over UConn & Pitt. It seems likely that Louisville will become the final conference bowl eligible team today.
The Big Ten appears to meets its quota, but since it is likely 2 conference teams will make BCS bowls, the Little Caesar's Bowl will be looking for a non Big Ten team.
The Big 12 is one short of its quota with 5-6 Colorado playing Nebraska today trying to get eligible. The Buffs have played better since firing their coach, so this isn't as unlikely as it seemed a few weeks ago.
C-USA has filled its 6 slots. Houston (5-6) plays Texas Tech Saturday night to try to get an extra team in the mix.
All 3 Independents have reached eligibility. Navy is tied to the Poinsettia Bowl. ND still has some connection to the Big East bowls, but there are a lot of stipulations. Army has Navy left and is likely hoping for not enough automatic qualifiers to get a bid...
The MAC is already 2 over its guarantee and a win by 5-6 WMU over BGSU would make another potential bowl team.
MWC has 5 teams for its 5 slots. But it is likely TCU will move up into a BCS bowl, opening up a slot for an out-of-conference qualifier.
The Pacific Ten still needs two more teams to fill their quota. Cal (5-6) gets in if they beat Washington (4-6). UW needs to beat Cal and Wazoo in the Apple Cup to get to eligibility. Oregon State (5-5) needs wins over Stanford and Oregon. UCLA needs wins over Arizona State and USC. It looks to me like only one more team becomes eligible out of this group.
The SEC is looking for one more team. Georgia (5-6) needs to beat Ga Tech and Tennessee (5-6) needs a victory over Kentucky.
The SunBelt is crazy with no eligible teams right now. FIU (5-5) needs a win over Arkansas State or Middle TN State. Troy (5-5) needs to beat either WKU or FL-Atlantic. LA-Monroe (5-6) has to beat LA-Lafayette. FL-Atl needs to beat Troy as well as MTSU. That leaves MTSU needing victories over FL-Atl and FIU. Clear as a bell. What happens if none are eligible?
Dave's WAC has 4 teams eligible for its 4 slots. But Boise St will likely be BCSing. The two potential teams are La Tech (4-6), who needs wins over CSU-SJ and Nevada, and Idaho (5-6) who must beat Fresno St.
I think it will be very close to get to the 70 eligible teams. There will probably be only 3-4 eligible teams at home over the holidays...
Update - coming into the final week of the season, there are exactly 70 bowl eligible teams right now. There are 4 more teams playing for their 6th win this week - Oregon State, Washington, Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech.
ReplyDeleteWashington is the only team that would be favored in their final game.