Both BrianGoBlog and BWchriS commented about Michigan's decision to kick the PAT rather than go for 2 when they scored what turned out to be their final touchdown.
MGoBlog thinks M made the wrong decision and BWS disagrees.
I tend to agree that kicking the PAT was correct.
Time left: Michigan scored with 7:53 remaining, making the score 24-15. There had been 18 possessions to that point. Meaning the average possession to that point had been less than 3 minutes. M had all 3 timeouts (I think M used their first timeout on Iowa's next punt).
Keeping it at 2 possessions instead of 3: A missed 2 point conversion means M needs to score 2 times in under 8 minutes, with Iowa running clock - that's not enough time to do so without an onside kick. I know a missed 2 point conversion with no time left means you lose - I get it, but I'd rather start with a more doable option stop and score - rather than stop - score - get onside kick - score.
What if Iowa scores? 27-15 - takes a last second field goal to put us in OT out of the equation. Or forces M to go for a TD on a 4th and long goal rather than take a FG now and scramble for the tying TD. 31-15 - means M needs 2 TDs and 2 2-point conversions... 27-16 and 31-16 are much better options.
Momentum and emotion: A failed 2 point conversion would have to demoralize the team - knowing they scored but still need to score 2 more times...
BWS wanted to something like the Advance NFL stats to show:
WP(extra point) vs. WP(2-pt make)*.4 + WP(2-pt miss)*.6
But isn't really able to pull it off. Based on the comments I've seen on his post and in mgoblog - I am definitely in the minority, but that doesn't change my opinion that M made the right choice.
Showing posts with label m blogs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label m blogs. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Friday, November 12, 2010
trying to get up by two scores
I've been thinking about posting something about Michigan's inability to get a two score lead for a little while. Burgeoning Wolverine Star did the homework. In a way it wasn't as bead as I thought. Because in their losses M was seldom ahead trying to get that 2nd score.
He removed the "blowout" games of UConn and BGSU, so in the other 8 games M has succeeded only twice in 22 tries to get up by two scores. M was 3 for 3 in the UConn and BGSU games (see below) - so they are 5 for 25 on the year.
BWS points to more conservative play calling from RR when M has that one score lead as the potential problem.
One thing is clear, the games M has lost they haven't had many chances to get up two scores. They're 0-2 in those three losses.
I'd really like M to break this trend and finish this weeks game with a nice calm 1 for 1 and never look back, but
He removed the "blowout" games of UConn and BGSU, so in the other 8 games M has succeeded only twice in 22 tries to get up by two scores. M was 3 for 3 in the UConn and BGSU games (see below) - so they are 5 for 25 on the year.
BWS points to more conservative play calling from RR when M has that one score lead as the potential problem.
| Opp | Score | field pos | run | pass | Pen | 1st Downs | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC | 7-0 | M20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | TD |
| ND | 14-7 | M8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | punt |
| ND | 14-7 | M14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | punt |
| ND | 14-7 | M37 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | punt |
| ND | 14-7 | M2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | TD |
| ND | 21-14 | M17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| ND | 21-17 | M27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | missed FG |
| ND | 21-17 | ND25 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | punt |
| ND | 21-17 | M41 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | missed FG |
| ND | 21-17 | M15 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | punt |
| ND | 21-17 | ND48 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| Mass | 21-17 | M31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | TD |
| BGSU | 7-0 | M12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | TD |
| BGSU | 21-14 | M31 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 4 | TD |
| IU | 14-7 | M19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | fumble |
| IU | 28-21 | M13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| IU | 35-28 | M28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| IU | 35-28 | M30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | punt |
| IU | 35-28 | M39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| MSU | 3-0 | M13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | punt |
| Iowa | 7-0 | M20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | punt |
| Ill | 7-3 | M18 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | Int |
| Ill | 7-3 | M15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Int |
| Ill | 7-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | fumble |
| Ill | 38-31 | M20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | missed FG |
| Sum | 71 | 51 | 6 | 33 | |||
| Average | M25 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
One thing is clear, the games M has lost they haven't had many chances to get up two scores. They're 0-2 in those three losses.
I'd really like M to break this trend and finish this weeks game with a nice calm 1 for 1 and never look back, but
Monday, August 30, 2010
M Blogs
I decided to put all of the M blogs to my feedreader because the way I had them set up before (on a Google Home page) I only read the ones on the top of the page, and missed entire blogs. This way, I will miss many many posts, but I will get much better idea of which blogs I like and are worth reading. There are about 30-35 blogs, plus some comments have rss feeds also.
A few days after I put all of them on, I went out of town for 4 days with no internet access. So when I returned there were 193 M football blogs (that doesn't count MGoBlog which will stay with my regular feeds so I never miss it). I doubt if any of those posts will be read, as there were about 110 of my regular feeds that I have to weed through.
Of the M football feeds I have read, though, there are a couple of trends that aren't surprising, but are definitely annoying.
1) Unreasonable optism: I think the most popular record predicted for M in these blogs (by the authors and the commenters) is 8-4, with many more saying 9-3 than anything below 8-4.
2) Not unlike the commenters on MGoBlog, there are opinions that are considered gospel, and if disputes that opinion all other posters (and the author sometimes) gets all over them. An example is that Toussaint was picked as the started running back or the #2 by an entire panel (5 or 6 people) on one blog. I hadn't seen him any higher than #3 on anyone else's list or MGoBLue.com or pretty much anywhere. Either they know something I don't, or they are stupid sheep.
Overall, I'm sure I will miss about 70-80% of all posts once the season is going and I am here on weekends (other than on gamedays). But that will still be better than missing entire blogs for the entire season.
A few days after I put all of them on, I went out of town for 4 days with no internet access. So when I returned there were 193 M football blogs (that doesn't count MGoBlog which will stay with my regular feeds so I never miss it). I doubt if any of those posts will be read, as there were about 110 of my regular feeds that I have to weed through.
Of the M football feeds I have read, though, there are a couple of trends that aren't surprising, but are definitely annoying.
1) Unreasonable optism: I think the most popular record predicted for M in these blogs (by the authors and the commenters) is 8-4, with many more saying 9-3 than anything below 8-4.
2) Not unlike the commenters on MGoBlog, there are opinions that are considered gospel, and if disputes that opinion all other posters (and the author sometimes) gets all over them. An example is that Toussaint was picked as the started running back or the #2 by an entire panel (5 or 6 people) on one blog. I hadn't seen him any higher than #3 on anyone else's list or MGoBLue.com or pretty much anywhere. Either they know something I don't, or they are stupid sheep.
Overall, I'm sure I will miss about 70-80% of all posts once the season is going and I am here on weekends (other than on gamedays). But that will still be better than missing entire blogs for the entire season.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)
