M vs. UConn prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 234-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 34-2 in the 3rd attended games of the season
M is 91-22 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 14-6 vs. Independents
M is 3-3 when facing a team currently in a different conference than the previous time they played (Big 10 – Big Ten – B1G not considered different conferences for this purpose)
M is 228-62-1 vs schools from states I've visited
M is 197-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 110-26-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 152-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 6-2 vs. schools with dog based nicknames
M is 18-5 following a game that involved rain/thunder/delay

M is 57-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 34-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 171-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 23-3 when ranked #4
M is 227-61-1 on Saturday

It's easy when you look at the numbers....

M 63

UConn 6 

M vs. UConn review

The questions coming in:

The QB - Who will start? Can Velcro really run the offense and pass the ball well enough to keep the other opposition honest?

• As I said in previous comments - I can;t imagine a better performance from Robinson. Whether it was because UConn just didn't have enough tape to scout him properly or that he really is THAT GOOD we'll wait to find out for sure. But if he can perform at 70% of this effort M will be successful (at least offensively).
• I'm still not sold on his arm. But assuming the coaches keep the playbook limited to plays he can succeed with, I think they might be OK. I like the run opening up throwing lanes and the screen passes opening up the seems. But if he has to throw a lot of long outs or deep balls on obvious passing downs, I'm still not convinced he has the arm to pull that off.
• The addition of the zone read really makes him much more effective - although UConn didn't have much luck stopping even the straight sweeps and draws.
  
• Forcier's dad's comments certainly made it seem like there might have been some sort of team suspension that Tate was under for this game. I still think he can be a decent college QB. If he really is buried at 3rd string, I wouldn't blame him at all for transferring.
  

Running backs - Are they good enough?

• I thought Shaw and Smith both showed promise. I was surprised they ended up below 4 ypc. I Shaw looks like he could have all the tools. Smith seems like he would be a great third down type back - good receiver out of the backfield - shifty for draws and screens etc. I don't think anyone else played (fullbacks don't count)
• Seemed like Stephen Hopkins looked good in the spring game - I was surprised he didn't get any game time - same for Michael Cox.

Receivers - does quantity = quality?

• So may options here. Is it too many? Hemmingway is hurt again, now Roundtree is questionable for the ND game. I like Tay Odoms. He made a key block on Velcros TD run. Other than Odoms and the injured Roundtree, I'm not sure what M has. Terrence Robinson seemed like he was pulling a wagon on that seam pass, should have been a TD.
  

Defense - Questions everywhere - How much will they run the real 3-3-5? Is Moundros really the answer at linebacker? Can Roh build off the promising freshman showing? The DBs - can they be anything but a liability?

• I don't remember them lining up in the true 3-3-5 at all Saturday. I think this might end up being similar to always hearing about the 1-3-1 zone trap that Beilein runs for the basketball team, that they used maybe 10% of the time last year and all of that was before the conference season.
  
• They're definitely multiple. I like that they increased substitutions. There was at least one formation that was really a 2-3-6, counting Roh as a linebacker and the hybrids as safeties.
• I didn't notice any difference with Thomas Gordon or Carvin Johnson in the game. I guess the injury will decrease some depth.
• The corners weren't tested. But they did make some nice plays. Floyd caused the fumble. Rogers almost had an interception. Seems like I remember Kovacs making some good plays against the run, but looking a little lost on a 20 or so yard pass on the far sideline on their TD drive (or maybe their fumble drive). I don't remember much from Cam Gordon, Seems like the long pass UConn tried, the receiver was behind him and as deep as I remember Gordon playing that can't be too good.
• A team with more of a passing attack (like ND I assume, or at least MSU, Purdue... among others) will be a truer test for the DBs - and I don't look forward to that at this point.
• The linebackers - I don't remember anything too awful. I heard Mouton's name a lot - so I would guess he'll have a decent result from the mgblog UFR. I htink Ezeh played most of the game but Moundros did see some time.
  
• They switched along the D-line a lot. Mostly in the non Martin/non RVB position. Seems like the better series for UConn may have occurred when either one of them was out of the game. They didn't get a whole lot of pressure. No official sacks. Roh got through a few times, but there was certainly no BG in waiting based on this game.

Special teams - how will that go?

• Gibbons had the first horrible kickoff and he missed a FG and a PAT. I've heard the PAT was maybe on Dileo (the holder). And there were some crazy winds - so I'm not giving up on Gibbons yet, but he needs to show up at ND.
• Hagerup - I think only had one punt. It wasn't pretty, but got a great roll - I'll take 50 yards net all season. Can't make any judgment on this one.
• Returns - T.Robinson misplayed the one short kick off and Gallon fumbled the short punt. I think both were because the wind was playing tricks on those kicks, but you have to know the conditions. If the choice is a great returner who might fumble some or an average returner who catches the kicks and doesn't fumble - I'll take the latter every time.

Coaching

• I guess I can understand RR wanting to have Velcro play in this offense. As I mentioned above if the offense can stay in down and distance situations that allow Velcro to run the plays he's (or really I'm) comfortable with him running, they'll be successful. At this point I'd rather see a QB draw on 3rd and long than him throwing downfield. I hope I'm wrong.
• Obviously it is too soon to judge the defense. Maybe the GERG finally has enough players to run some different fronts etc. More available bodies has to be better right?

My prediction was 34-24, although the offense scored under my prediction, I'm still very pleased with that effort. The defense certainly was better than I'd expected - I hope it is due to them and not due to UConn.

Offense - A-
Defense - B+
Special teams - D
Coaching - B

What Does It Mean?

There is no question M was more impressive than what I expected, and Drob had an amazing game. It was a very good win against a decent team. Like every other first game of the season, this victory means much more than just a victory. It allows us to have a better idea of what the remainder of the season could mean. Most M fans, especially those who were predicting 8 wins or more, are probably increasing their win prediction by a game or two after the great performance today. I, on the other hand, am too much of a curmudgeon to do that.

Why?

It could be that I have been burned before (remember, how we all felt after the ND game last year). It could be that RR's teams are inconsistent and a downfall is imminent. It could be that I just can't accept the "Drob is God" sentiment that has existed since his first play against WMU. It could be all of a little of each of these things, but it could also be because of the following:

1) Drob probably had the best statistical game he will have all year. I'm not saying he won't be effective and be the star of other games, but he was pretty much way too good today. As opposing D's scout M, they will find ways to stop slow down Drob.

2) Drob was statistically amazing in the passing game today. Against a D with some DBs with speed, the downfield passes Drob made today will be knocked down or picked off.

3) So much is put on the QB's shoulders in this offense, that losing Drob would be a heck of a blow. I know the crowd likes Gardner almost as much as they like Drob, but he is not there yet. It reminds me of the 2007 Oregon team that fell apart when Dixon got hurt. I could see that happening here.

4) M only had 1 penalty. That was a good thing for this game, but it is not going to happen again. It is great to see that discipline has been improved, but you have to expect more than that each game from now on (though less than last year, probably)

4) M had 3 fumbles. Fortunately, none were lost, but if that fumble number doesn't decrease, the lost fumble number could be a game loser.

5) The kickers are bad.

I'm sure there are other reasons, but these are the first that came to mind. I thought of a few reasons why I am wrong about the above, but I just can't allow myself to fall into the trap of thinking things are going to be OK. Not yet, I can't. They've done this to me before.

UConn Fight Song

UConn Husky


Interestingly, the arrangement they use now is an adaptation by David Maker of an earlier arrangement by M Alum, M-Fanfare composer and arranger of many traditional M tunes, David Bilik.


U Conn Husky, symbol of might to the foe.
Fight, fight Connecticut, it's victr'y, Let's go
Connecticut U Conn Husky, victr'y again for the White and Blue
So go, go, go Connecticut, Connecticut U. Hi!
C-O-N-N-E-C-T-I C-U-T. Connecticut,
Connecticut Husky,
Connecticut Husky, Connecticut C-O-N-N-U. Hi! (repeat)

Favorite UConn Players

#30 Matt Edwards OLB (not on the two-deep)
#5 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB (starter)

Opponent's Mascot Statue - UConn

As a new (possibly regular) feature, I will try to post a picture of a statue/sculpture on the opponent's campus, of the opponent's mascot.

This one is of Justin, the original live UConn Husky mascot.  This statue is located outside Gampel Pavilion.  I couldn't find any information on the sculptor.  I'm just going to say it was done by Michaelangelo.