B1G Championship game (2023) prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 251-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 6-2 in the 10th attended game of the season
M is 155-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 14-4 vs.Iowa
M is 87-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 41-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 in conference championship games
M is 8-1 vs teams ranked 17
M is 15-5 when ranked #2
M is 19-11 when ranked in the top 5 vs ranked teams
M is 244-62-1 on Saturday
M is 6-6 in NFL stadiums
M is 23-6 in night games
M is 70-8 vs. schools where either the school’s name or nickname was a key character/element or in the title of a tv show or movie I watched as a kid
M is 4-3 in domes
M is 74-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 51-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 29

Iowa 5

M vs Iowa prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 236-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 26-10 in the 5th attended games of the season
M is 4-0 on October 1
M is 144-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 230-62-1 vs schools from states I've visited
M is 37-19 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 27-10 in true road games
M is 1-1 in Iowa City
M is 112-26-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 40-7 vs. schools with egg-laying animal-based nicknames
M is 67-8 vs. schools where either the school’s name or nickname was a key character/element or in the title of a tv show or movie I watched as a kid
M is 83-19 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 59-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 36-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 173-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 25-3 when ranked #4
M is 229-61-1 on Saturday

It's easy when you look at the numbers.... 

M 28

Iowa 18

B1G championship game prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 231-65-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 7-8 in the 9th attended games of the season
M is 142-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 12-4 vs. Iowa; 1-1 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 36-18 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 4-5 in the 2nd game away from Michigan Stadium in the same season
M is 9-8 on neutral fields
M is 2-2 in domes
M is 3-3 in the state of Indiana
M is 16-5 in night games
M is 81-19 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 65-8 vs. schools where either the school’s name or nickname was a key character/element or in the title of a tv show or movie I watched as a kid
M is 54-11 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 31-4-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 53-31 when both teams are ranked
M is 0-2 when ranked #2 (0-1 vs. Iowa)
M is 4-1 vs. the 15th ranked team (1-1 vs. Iowa)
M is 0-2 in December

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 24
I 13

Iowa prediction based on Jim Harbaugh's broken leg

Saw this tweet the other day that confused three different Michigan/Harbaugh stories

In 1985, #2 UM visited #1 Iowa & lost 12-10. Michigan QB Jim Harbaugh broke his leg. For that reason, the #HarbaughRevengeTour continues Sat

— LG (@LGhail) November 9, 2016

There are 3 things at play here:

When his dad was an assistant at Iowa Jim broke his leg on the first day they moved to Iowa City.
He did break a bone as Michigan QB in a loss, but that was his arm in 1984 diving for Jamie Morris's fumble against MSU.
He did quarterback the 1985 squad to that 12-10 loss.

My prediction for this week is none of these three things will recur

M 41
I 13

Iowa Prediction

Here are some fast facts:

• M hasn't won consecutive road games since 2010 (Notre Dame and Indiana) 
• Michigan hasn't won in Iowa since 2005
• Michigan has never lost 3 consecutive games in Iowa City 
• Did go 0-2-1 in 1984, 1985, 1988
• With a score, Michigan will set a new record for longest streak of not being shut out
• M last shut out at Iowa in 1984
• Michigan hasn't lost a road game since Brady Hoke's home winning streak was broken
• Craig Ross said on WTKA today that his friend who has picked each M game result correctly this season, predicted Iowa to win.
• Iowa win's on a late field goal (or maybe M misses one)

M 17 Iowa 19

M vs. Iowa prediction based on Historical Data

M is 178-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is ONLY for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 119-35-1 in conference games
M is 149-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 128-20-1against unranked opponents
M is 151-35-1 when ranked
M is 2-1 when ranked #23
M is 10-4 vs. Iowa
M is 25-5 when facing schools with "bird" based nicknames
M is 16-5 in the 7th game of the season
M is 41-13-1 in November
M is 147-381 vs. Public Schools
M is 22-5 when it was unsure who would start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)
M is 34-7 with #16 as starting QB
M is 8-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 14-4 with a QB starting his second game/1-1 with a QB starting his 25th game
M is 103-26 on artificial turf
M is 26-9-1 in the last seen home game of the season (17-9-1 when it is actually the last home game)
M is 4-1 against Legends Division match-ups
M is 14-2 in games with Brady Hoke as their head coach (M is 15-2 when Hoke coaches either team)
              Quick rundown of all M coaches: Bo 42-8; Mo 24-7-1; Carr 86-18; RR 12-14
M is 40-12  against all schools where I have seen more M coaches then opponent coaches in head to head match-ups (BC, EMU, Iowa, OSU, PSU, Wazoo, WMU are only qualifiers)
M is 3-1 in their head coach's 17th game

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 38 Iowa 10

Iowa prediction based on historical data

M is 163-44-1 in all games I have attended (all stats are only for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 135-32-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 112-32-1 in conference games
M is 19-4-1 in the 6th game I have seen in a particular season
M is 30-4 with #16 as starting QB
M is 23-4 against bird related mascots
M is 10-3 against Iowa
M is 62-13-1 against University of state name schools
M is 48-24 against ranked teams
M is 20-13 when facing a higher ranked team
M is 22-11 when unranked
M is 7-2 when unranked and playing a ranked opponent

It's simple when you add it all up

M saves the season

M 37 - Iowa 24

Iowa Prediction Based On Menu Board

ia 28-27

Countdown to Kickoff - 20 days

October 18, 1986

Michigan 20 - Iowa 17

Michigan, Iowa and field goals... for a few years in the eighties and early nineties their meetings always seemed to come down to field goals.
The 1986 match-up had both squads coming in at 5-0. Michigan was ranked #4 and Iowa #8. Since their #1-#2 match-up the previous season (you're likely to read about this game here in the coming days), this was quite an anticipated match-up.
The defenses were the story in the first half. Iowa limited Michigan to a 53 yard Mike Gillette field goals while adding 10 points of their own.
Michigan finally got in the endzone early in the second half on a Jim Harbaugh to Gerald White pass. Then after stopping the Hawkeyes again, White scored on the ground - for the first rushing TD against Iowa on the season - giving M their first lead at 17-10.
Mark Vlasic hit Robert Smith to tie it back at 17 in the 4th. With just under 2 minutes left and Iowa driving for a potential field goal attempt, Andy Moeller pounced on an errant pitch giving Michigan the ball back near midfield. A mix of runs and passes got M close enough for Gillette's 34 yard field goal winner as time expired.
The 1986 season was really a year of field goals for Michigan. Besides this game Michigan had 3 others that came down to last second field goal attempts. Notre Dame and OSU missed potential game winning field goals, Minnesota unfortunately hit theirs.

Countdown to Kickoff - 22 days

October 22, 1983

Michigan 16 - Iowa 13

Another homecoming game with my parents. Much like the first game I attended, this game was played in the rain. My mom even decided to stay and watch the game at the hotel rather than sit in the rain. So I went to the game with my dad and cousin Barry.

Both teams came in at 5-1 (M lost at Washington, Iowa lost at Illinois). Michigan was ranked #10, Iowa #12. The teams had split the previous two meetings. Iowa was really in the heart of Hayden Fry's best seasons.

At some point during the game the MMB initiated the first wave in Michigan Stadium history. Unfortunately, M was on offense and needed to take a timeout because they couldn't hear the signals.

It was mostly a battle of field goals. Michigan's Bob Bergeron was 2 of 3 early to put the Wolverines up 6-0. Iowa's Tom Nichol answered with a school record 56 yarder.
Rick Rogers scored the games first TD on an option pitch from Steve Smith late in the 3rd to put M up 13-3.
Early in the 4th the Hawkeyes mounted a long drive but when Chuck Long's 3rd down pass was just short of Ronnie Harmon in the endzone, they were settling for another field goal. But they weren't - the holder pulled the ball up rolled to the right and hit a receiver in the back of the endzone - the PAT made it 13-10.
Gerald White bobbled and then fumbled the ensuing kickoff - giving the Hawkeyes a great chance to take the lead early in the 4th. But they settled for another field goal, tying it at 13.
With 1:41 left - Rodney Lyles recovered a fumble at Michigan's 28 yard line. A mix of draws (it was Bo coaching after all) and a 25 yard screen pass to Rogers put Michigan inside the Hawkeye 29 with 12 seconds left. Bergeron came on for a 45 yard attempt.

With 8 seconds Michigan kicked off through the endzone for a touchback. I remember my dad and Barry discussing if this was the right idea. No time came off the clock. What is more likely two plays to go 80 yards or a long kickoff return? When Tony Gant Picked off Long's last pass, the choice was moot.

Countdown to Kickoff - 30 days

October 18, 1997
Michigan 28 - Iowa 24

I've seen some great Michigan teams in my lifetime. In the Bo years they couldn't seem to win the Bowl game or would find a way to lose to Purdue or Minnesota when they greatly out-talented them. The 1980 and 1988 teams lost close early heartbreaks then went on winning streaks and at the end of the year, were as good as any team in the country.

The one team that managed to avoid losing (or tying - I see you 1992) any games was of course the 1997 National Champions. Although they had close match-ups with OSU and in the Rose Bowl, I would argue the game they came closest to losing was this game against Iowa.
The first half was really about Iowa's big plays. They had a 50+ yard TD run for the first score and interception return down to the one leading to their second TD. The play that probably should have ended Michigan's perfect season was Tim Dwight's punt return for a TD on the final play of the half (as I remember it, Iowa had two returners back!) making the halftime score 21-7. It could have been even worse - Marcus Ray intercepted a pass at the 1 yard line thwarting an earlier score. This was the first time I remember real boos for the team as they left the field at the half.

Michigan scored early in the third and Griese scored late in the quarter on a 4th down dive to tie the score. But Dwight struck again, taking the kickoff back into M territory - leading to a field goal and Iowa leading 24-21 going into the 4th.

Late in the 4th Michigan faced a 3rd and long, Griese was hurried and threw short toward Jerame Tuman. Had he been allowed the catch the ball he would have been well short of the first down. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, he was interfered with before he had a chance - automatic first down.

The drive continued down a 3rd and goal with under 3 minutes left. Griese was flushed again but found Tuman, unmolested this time, in the endzone for to give Michigan their first lead.

As great as the 1997 defense was, they didn't shut the door immediately. Iowa drove down into Michigan territory before Sam Sword intercepted to finally close out the victory.

From the 1997 season most people remember the Woodson interception at MSU, the thumping Michigan gave Penn State in Happy Valley, Woodson again vs. the Buckeyes, and the finale at the Rose Bowl. But, in my mind none of those games mean as much if Michigan doesn't find a way to pull out this victory against the Hawkeyes.

M vs. Iowa pick based on historical data

M is 876-296-36 in all games
M is 718-256-35 in games I have not attended
M is 30-7-4 in games vs. Iowa that I have not attended (5-2-1 since I first saw M play Iowa)

It's simple when you go by the numbers

M 17
Iowa 31