M vs Penn State prediction based on channeling anger

Michigan has themselves first to blame for the advanced scouting-gate. Penn State’s only culpability is -I assume - being one of the schools pushing for punishment. 

M 28

PSU 11

M vs. Penn State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 237-66-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 26-8-1 in the 5th attended games of the season
M is 1-1 on October 15
M is 145-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 11-2 vs Penn State
M is 3-0 vs James Franklin (Franklin is 0-4 in all games I've seen)
M is 20-5 when facing a head coach who I have seen coach against a team other than Michigan
M is 231-62-1 vs schools from states I've visited
M is 59-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname
M is 199-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 113-26-1 in noon or 12:30 starts
M is 153-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 60-12 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 37-5-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 63-41 vs ranked opponents
M is 2-2 vs teams ranked #10
M is 14-1 when ranked #5
M is 230-61-1 on Saturday 

It's easy when you look at the numbers 

M 32

PSU 20

M vs. PSU prediction based on what I said earlier - or is it?

 Ever the optimist, I had M sitting at 8-1 going into the Penn State game in my preseason prediction. If you click on that link, you'll also see I picked M to lose in Happy Valley.

I take it back!

M 28

PSU 17

M vs. Penn State vs. COVID prediction

Penn State has lost two of the statistically most unlikely losses of the season. They dominated both Indiana and Nebraska everywhere but the scoreboard. 

Turnovers have hurt he Nittany Lions quite a bit this season.

Michigan hasn't really shown much ability to cause turnovers.

We've got a real movable object vs. resistible force thing going here.

I have a feeling Penn State, like MSU is going to get their first win thanks to the Wolverines...

Penn State 31 - M 27 

Game Week Countdown - Penn State #1

 For my top Michigan - Penn State game, I choose the 2005 game. 

The Nittany Lions came in undefeated while M was coming of a homecoming loss to Minnesota and sitting at 3-3.

Michigan's defense met the challenge early, holding PSU scoreless in the first half. A Garrett Rivas field goal made it 3-0 at the break.

Mike Hart scored early in the 3rd making it 10-0 Wolverines. 

Penn State finally got on the scoreboard just before the the end of the quarter with a field goal to make it 10-3. This started 18 straight points for PSU over the next 5 minutes of game time.

Michael Robinson bullied in to tie the score at 10. Then the Penn State defense got on the board. Chad Henne scrambled for a short gain, Alan Zemaitis wrapped up Henne, took the ball away and ran it in for a touchdown. Confusion on the hold on the PAT turned into 2 points as the holder was able to run it in giving Penn State the 18-10 lead, with just over 11 minutes remaining.

Michigan answered quickly - Henne hit Mario Manningham on a perfect throw along the sideline and Mike Hart ran in the conversion to tie the score at 18.

Michigan's defense held and Rivas hit another field goal with ~3:30 left to give Michigan the 21-18 lead.

This time the defense couldn't make the stops. Robinson again scrambled into the end zone with under a minute left to make it 25-21 Penn State.

Henne was often at his best when his back was to the wall and he lead a perfect drive capped with a TD pass toe Manningham as time expired.

via GIFER

 

For the 27-25 win - Penn State's only loss on the season. 

Game Week Countdown - Penn State #2

 Somehow I got tickets in the Penn State student section for the 1999 M-PSU game. I don't know if I cut the line or if the "Paternoville" deal hadn't started yet, but I just walked in and ended up in the second row behind the goalpost.

Michigan lead 10-0 after the first quarter and 17-7 after early in the 3 quarter. But PSU scored the next 20 points to lead 27-17 with just under 10 minutes  remaining. 

Tom Brady looked every it what he would become in those final minutes. He ran in from 5 yards out to cut the lead to 27-24 with under 4 minutes left.

After a defensive stop, Brady led another drive that culminated with a Brady to Marcus Knight pass to make it 31-17 with just over minute left.

Game Week Countdown - Penn State Game #3

 The third game on my list was the first game between the two schools, October 16, 1993. How I was lucky enough to be there requires a bit of a story.

My dad was a freshman at U of M in 1940. He was part of the first group of students who lived in East Quad. Because of WWII very few of his freshman friends graduated together, but several remained in contact. 

In 1990 they held a 50 year reunion in Ann Arbor the weekend of the UCLA game. One of my dad's friends was a big enough donor that he had no problem getting several tickets.

One of the men was a professor at Penn State and he was able to secure enough tickets for the 1993 reunion in Happy Valley. Although our seats were low and in the end zone, just being there was quite an experience.

Those seats got better when we could see the hole open up for Derrick Alexander's punt return for a TD to get Michigan on the board and cut the deficit to 10-7 late in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, M missed a field goal, but Penn State was offside giving the Wolverines a first down and keeping the drive alive. Shortly thereafter, Todd Collins found Mercury Hayes in the corner for a 14-10 Michigan lead.

The third quarter was scoreless, but the Nittany Lions ended the quarter on Michigan's one yard line. M stopped two Kerry Collins sneaks and an attempted dive from Ki Jana Carter. That brought up 4th down and moved the ball from right in front of us to a football field away and the opposite end zone.

The middle of the Michigan defense stuffed Carter again and kept the score 14-10

Another Todd Collins TD pass, this time to Che Foster, moved the score to 21-10. 

Penn State added a field goal, but their final drive ended with a Shonte Peoples interception to seal the 21-13 win.

Game Week Countdown - Penn State #4

 For the #4 game between M and PSU, 'll go with the 2002 battle in Ann Arbor.

Both teams came into the game with 4-1 records. 

The game was a defensive battle, Penn State lead 13-7 going in to the 4th quarter.

Braylon Edwards scored early in the 4th on a pass from John Navarre and the PAT put Michigan ahead 14-13.

Penn State answered midway through the quarter and a 2-point conversion put the Nittany Lions up 21-14.

The Wolverines knotted it back up with just over 3 minutes remaining on another Navarre to Edwards pass.

Penn State made it midfield after a ridiculous "catch" that would in no way be a catch today, but could get no further and the two teams went to overtime. The first OT in Michigan Stadium History.

Penn State went first and M held them to a field goal to make it 24-21 PSU. Michigan had 2 chances to shut them out - Cato June jumped a pass and nearly intercepted on the goal line and then Robbie Gould missed the bad angle short field goal attempt, but M had jumped offside giving him a second chance.

Michigan got their chance and made the best of it - mostly on the ground with Chris Perry finally bullying his way in to the end zone for the 27-21 win.

Game Week Countdown - Penn State #5

Oops, got a late start on these.

I have seen M and PSU play 13 times, with M carrying a record of 11-2 in those games. 

Good news, I don't have to pick a loss! Better news, there are a lot of good games between these two.

I'll start with with the 2001 match-up in Happy Valley.

Melissa and I stayed in Punxsutawney at the same hotel where Bill Murray stayed while filming Groundhog day! We went to their Groundhog zoo and to Gobbler's Nob.

We made the drive into Happy Valley on game day morning ready for the noon kickoff. I really only experience game day driving at away games, since we live close enough to Michigan Stadium to walk. But driving into Happy Valley in an experience.

All roads lead to the parking lots of Beaver Stadium. We were in a field tailgating with some delicious bologna sandwiches. It was a very cold day, we had to buy one of those giant mugs of hot chocolate to keep warm.

Michigan prevailed 20-0 in a game that was never very close. 

On the way back to Michigan, we stopped along the Lake Erie shoreline.

 

Sometimes the best part of the game with the trip and the shared experiences and that's what puts this on on the list.

M vs. PSU prediction based on Historical data

Michigan is 216-62-1 in all games I have attended - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated

M is 210-58-1 against teams from states I have been to
M is 133-42-1 in conference games
M is 180-46-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 10-2 vs. Penn State
M is 8-2 when playing a team for the 13th time
M is 126-21 vs. schools with animal based nicknames
M is 138-44-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 13-1 when ranked #5

M is 2-0 vs. teams ranked #14
M is 38-8 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team

M is 58-23 in 3:30(ish) kickoffs

M is 126-41 vs. schools playing in their timezone
M is 52-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname
M is 19-4 when facing a head coach who I have seen coach against a team other than Michigan

M is 18-9 in the 7th game I have attended in a season
M is 1-0 on November 3

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 24

PSU 21

via GIPHY

Buckeyes take the trophy from the WhiteOut

Ohio State trailed Penn State 26-14 with 7 minutes left in Happy Valley. The last 7 minutes were not kind to the Nittany Lions. Even after falling behind 27-26, it looked like PSU might still eek out a victory, until a questionable 4th down call sealed their fate.

The Buckeyes take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy for the first time since losing to Florida, and Urban Meyer, in the BCS championship game following the 2006 season.

• OSU is 50-14-1 all-time in trophy matchups
• 5 of those losses came in bowl games
• This is their 8th time as trophy-holder
• OSU is 6-3 vs. Michigan in Trophy games
• First trophy games was a loss to Michigan in 1918
• Got revenge taking down the Wolverines the next season
• Following their 1919 loss to Illinois, the Buckeyes did not hold the trophy again until their 1968 National Championship team won it from Purdue
• They played for the trophy twice in that span, losing to Notre Dame in 1935 and Northwestern in 1936
• the 1968-69 Trophy holders rattled off 15 wins before losing to Bo Schembechler's upstart Wolverines in 1969.
• The Buckeyes and UCLA met 3 times for the trophy in 1975-76
• OSU took the trophy from the Bruins in October of 1975
• Lost it back to them in the Rose Bowl on New Years' Day 1976
• Played trophy-holder UCLA to a 10-10 tie in October of 1976

Here is the Buckeyes remaining schedule with their trophy-game record against each school:
10/6 Indiana (2-0)
10/13 Minnesota (3-0)
10/20 @ Purdue (4-0)
11/3 Nebraska (0-0)
11/10 @MSU (4-0)
11/17 @ Maryland (0-0)

11/24 Michigan (6-3)

Penn State brings trophy to B1G

Penn State dominated Pittsburgh Saturday night 51-6, winning not just the state bragging rights, but the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy.

• This is the first time the trophy has been held by a B1G team since Ohio State lost to Florida in the 2007 BCS Championship Game. 
• Penn State wins the trophy only for the 4th time. They are 8-3 as trophy holder. PSU previously defeated trophy holder:
• Lebanon Valley in 1926 (PSU was then 1-1 as trophy holder - lost to Notre Dame)
• Pennsylvania in 1952 (0-1 as trophy holder - lost to Syracuse)
• Alabama in 1986 (7-1 as trophy holder - including a national championship - lost to Alabama)
•  The Nittany Lions overall record in trophy games is 8-20-1. This includes losses to Clemson, Miami and Ohio State since that last run with the trophy in 1987.
• The remaining games for PSU this season are: 
• Kent State
• at Illinois
• Ohio State
• Michigan State
• at Indiana
• Iowa
• at Michigan
• Wisconsin
• at Rutgers
• Maryland
• It seems like a tough effort to run that table - but there  is a chance the November 3 game could bring the trophy to Ann Arbor

M - Penn State prediction based on QB play

Back in the Lloyd Carr era I had a theory that the main thing that determined Michigan's chance of beating their opponent was who had the better QB.
Chad Henne's teams generally won even if they didn't seem to be they better team because he played better than the quarterback for the opposition.
When John Navarre was better than Craig Krenzel  -see 2003, M won. When Craig Krenzel was better than Navarre, M lost - see 2001 & 2002.
Now M won some games when the QB was not so good - Iowa and ND in 1997, Purdue in the snow in 1995 and lost some games where they certainly had the better QB - see most every game they lost with Tom Brady as QB. But in general it holds for the Lloyd Carr era at least.

The Harbaugh teams seem to follow this as well.
His first game - the 3 interceptions from Jake Ruddock were most of the difference. Although the MSU game ended in that ridiculous punt fiasco - if you switch QBs in that game M wins handily.
The 2016 Wolverines were dominant for many reasons - but when Speight played poorly at Iowa and was dealing with his lingering injury issues they lost 3 out of 4.
In 2017 - they have won despite poor QB play - but generally their defense has made the opposition QB look even worse. Last week vs. Indiana may be the exception.

I don't think O'Korn is a better QB than McSorley . There is a possibility that Michigan's defense can bring McSorley closer to his level.

But not close enough.

Michigan 13
Penn State 20

Penn State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 198-59-1 in all games I have attended
                         - data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise noted
M is 127-44-1 in conference games
M is 166-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 vs. Penn State
M is 114-21 vs schools with animal based nicknames
M is 47-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname
M is 17-3 when ranked #4
M is 145-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 20-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role with the team
M is 18-4 when facing a head coach who I have seen coach against a team other than Michigan
M is 51-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 116-38 vs. schools playing in their timezone
M is 24-6 vs. schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 24-7 in the 4th game I have seen in a season
M is 2-1 on September 24

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 42 PSU 21

Penn State prediction based on predictions

Back in January I predicted M would finish the regular season at 9-3 - with losses only to Utah, MSU and OSU.
In September, as kickoff vs. Utah approached I back off to 8-4, adding the extra loss against Minnesota or Penn State.

Here's how jiMpossible and I have done so far with our weekly predictions:

Game	jiMpossible	sarcasMike	result
Utah	U 31-18	U 30-28	U 24-17
Oregon State	M 27-15	M 34-7	M 35-7
UNLV	M 41-7	M 45-3	M 28-7
BYU	M 30-17	M 27-17	M 31-0
Maryland	M 31-16	M 24-3	M 28-0
Northwestern	M 24-11	M 17-6	M 38-0
MSU	M 23-20	M 14-0	S 27-23
Minnesota	M 21-19	M 20-14	M 29-26
Rutgers	M 39-13	M 31-13	M 49-16
Indiana	M 36-21	M 42-20	M 48-41

We both picked the correct winner in every game except MSU. A couple times we've gotten really close.
jiMpossible picked Penn State earlier today. It's time for some separation in our picks. It's time to go with January over September.

M 21
PSU 13

Penn State prediction based on historical data

M is 187-55-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 157-41-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 122-40-1 in conference games

M is 7-3 in night games 

M is 2-0 #UNDERTHELIGHTS™

M is 1-2 wearing Dave Brandon/adidas's UNIFORMZ

M is 8-2 vs Penn State

M is 30-19 when unranked

M is 136-24-1 vs, unranked opponents

M is 5-3 after 3 (or more) consecutive losses 

M is 20-7-1 in the 6th game I've seen in a season

It's easy when you add it all up

M 27
PSU 24

Penn State prediction based on pure speculation

I don't think I've watched one snap of a Penn State game this season. I don't think I've missed seeing one for Michigan.

In January, I predicted this a loss for Michigan. Although M is undefeated, they haven't been particularly impressive thus far. I think it comes down to turnovers and Borges. If M loses the turnover battle - they'll lose. If Borges has a "no idea what I'm doing" game plan - see MSU 2011, Iowa 2011, Notre Dame 2012; M will lose.

But since they've managed to do just enough thus far...

M 24
Penn St 21

Prediction for M -PSU

Really seems like a must win for Michigan - especially when you add the injuries Penn State has suffered.

M 35
PSU 17

or for jiMpossible's sake:

Countdown to kickoff day 13

November 20, 1999

Michigan 31 - Penn St 27

To me this is a classic Tom Brady game. M had to make a furious comeback late to win the game.

I had scalped PSU student section tickets. This was before Paternoville was a big deal, but you were still seated in order of entry. That meant I was in the second row, surrounded by Nittany Lion fans.

Brady and David Terrell were big in the comeback IIRC. PSU actually played LaVar Arrington on Terrell man-to-man late in the game. He was somewhat successful.

I remember Brady faking an injury so Henson could come in for a throw back to the QB play. I don't think it worked.

Seems like Brady lead two 4th quarter TD drives to put M back in front. IIRC one ended in a Brady QB sneak and the other a pass to Marcus Knight (I can't seem to get youtube to work out here).

Countdown to Kickoff - 21 days

October 6, 1993

Michigan 21 - Penn State 13

This was the first meeting between Michigan and Penn State. According to Beano Cook, the Nittany Lions were going to come in to the Big1T1en and dominate. Up to this point, so far-so good. PSU was 5-0 and ranked #7. But they were about to face the meat of their schedule, I assume they were going to show the "former" conference powers who the new king was. They would face Michigan and then OSU in their 6th and 7th games (both, of course, preceded with a bye week.)
Michigan was 3-2 and coming off a bad loss to MSU. It was also Penn State's 1000th game overall. Michigan was not given much of a chance.
My dad had gotten the tickets, this was actually the meeting of his 1940 Freshman of Prescott House reunion. One of his classmates was a professor and was able to get 20+ tickets to this really historic game - pretty impressive, really.
Michigan missed an early field goal, then PSU took over. a short field goal and then a long TD pass put the Nittany Lions up 10-0 early in the 2nd quarter. Special teams made the first play for Michigan. Derrick Alexander returned a short punt 48 yards to paydirt to get the Wolverines on the board. The scores held to half time.
In the 3rd - Elozovic missed another field goal, but Penn St was offside giving Michigan a first down. Later in he drive Todd Collins hit Mercury Hayes on a fade to put M up 14-10.
Late in the quarter, PSU had a first and goal from the 1, right in front of us.

• Kerry Collins sneak - no gain
• Kerry Collins sneak - no gain
• Ki-Jana Carter tries to jump the pile - no gain - end of 3rd quarter
• Jarrett Irons, Shonte Peoples and Tony Henderson, blow up Carter on 4th down and Michigan takes over on downs.
  

Michigan's offense couldn't get too far and the short field led to a PSU field goal - making it 14-13, Michigan. On the next possession Tyrone Wheatley's took over, driving the Wolverines down to inside the 10. The final score came on a flat pass to Che Foster, giving M the 21-13 lead.
Peoples ended PSU last hope with an interception in the last minute.