Currently, M is #65 (from #44 last week). That would take M out of a 64 team playoff. I guess they could be in the play-in game against Kansas St.
PU is #74. Predicted record would be 6-6.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
M vs Purdue prediction based on historical data
M is 159-41-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless specifically mentioned)
M is 133-29-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 against Purdue (9-0 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 6-2 when facing a team for the 12th time
M is 111-29-1 against conference opponents
M is 14-8 when unranked facing an unranked opponent
M is 12-5 against the 5th different head coach I have seen for a specific opponent
M is 30-6 against teams with head coaches whose first names end in "y" or "ie"
It is simple when you add it all up:
M 35
PU 27
M is 133-29-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 against Purdue (9-0 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 6-2 when facing a team for the 12th time
M is 111-29-1 against conference opponents
M is 14-8 when unranked facing an unranked opponent
M is 12-5 against the 5th different head coach I have seen for a specific opponent
M is 30-6 against teams with head coaches whose first names end in "y" or "ie"
It is simple when you add it all up:
M 35
PU 27
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
PU Band
In honor of our opponent this week, here is the Tube Cadence and Band Cheer by the Purdue University "All-American" Marching Band
SarcasMike NCAA Football playoff 2009 version 1
I think we're finally far along enough in the season to track teams in my hypothetical NCAA Football playoff.
I think the majority of these games would have relatively close point spreads. Only the top 2 seeds would likely be large favorites.
Here are the ground rules:
- All 11 conference champs make the 16 team field.
- The remaining at-large teams are selected based on BCS ranking.
- Notre Dame (or any independent) makes the field if they have a BCS ranking of 20 or better.
- No intra-conference match-ups in the opening round
- First two rounds are held at campus sites
- Only conference champs can host an opening round match-up
Here's the playoff potential for this week:
16 Troy @ 1 Florida
9LSU @ 8 Oregon
12 USC @ 5 Cincinnati
13 Pittsburgh @ 4 Iowa
3 Alabama @ 14 Houston
11 Penn St @ 6 TCU
10 Georgia Tech @ 7 Boise St
15 CMU @ 2 Texas
14 of the top 16 BCS ranked teams make this playoff. Only CMU and Troy are not in the top 16 of the BCS. Utah and Ohio State are the two teams that would have their bubbles burst. I don't have any issues with them being left out. Notre Dame is currently ranked 22. So they may be knocking someone else out in the future.
Alabama is the only higher seed playing on the road. They'll make their case to be at home if they make it to the SEC championship game.I think the majority of these games would have relatively close point spreads. Only the top 2 seeds would likely be large favorites.
ESPN Bowl Predictions vol 10
Full ESPN Bowl Predictions here
I think Feldman missed that M lost, I don;t know how he can keep them in the Champs bowl - essentially the 5th best team.
Not many changes in the overall conference rankings either.
This week both "experts" have the same 10 teams in the BCS games including both having Texas-Florida in the championship game.
I think Feldman missed that M lost, I don;t know how he can keep them in the Champs bowl - essentially the 5th best team.
| Week | Schlabach | Feldman |
|---|---|---|
| Pre | Champs | PapaJohns |
| 1 | Alamo | Alamo |
| 2 | Outback | Outback |
| 3 | Cap One | Outback |
| 4 | Outback | Outback |
| 5 | Champs | Champs |
| 6 | Alamo | Champs |
| 7 | Champs | Champs |
| 8 | Insight | Champs |
| 9 | Pizza | Champs |
Not many changes in the overall conference rankings either.
| Place | Schlabach | Change | Feldman | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iowa | 0 | Iowa | 0 |
| 2 | PSU | 0 | PSU | 0 |
| 3 | OSU | 0 | OSU | 0 |
| 4 | Wisconsin | +1 | Wisconsin | 0 |
| 5 | MSU | -1 | Michigan | 0 |
| 6 | Minnesota | +2? | MSU | 0 |
| 7 | NU | 0 | Minnesota | 0 |
| 8 | Michigan | -2 | Indiana | +1 |
| 9 | NU | -1 |
This week both "experts" have the same 10 teams in the BCS games including both having Texas-Florida in the championship game.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Summary
I'm tired of the way M is playing. I'm tired of not having high expectations. I'm tired of people calling for RR to be fired. I'm tired of people saying RR needs to be here at least 4 years. I'm tired of the piped in music. I'm tired of the song selection by the band. I'm tired of the stupid people in our section. I'm tired of the weather. I'm tired of Tate Forcier not being as good as he was against ND. I'm tired of everyone saying Drob should play more. I'm tired of the OLine looking bad. I'm tired of the walk-ons playing like walk-ons. I'm tired of people complaining about the walk-ons. I'm tired of the long bathroom lines at the stadium. etc. etc. etc.
In Summary...
In Summary...
Monday, November 2, 2009
First drives vs all others under RR
I got the feeling that M seems to have a very good first drive, but then tapers off under RR.
M scores on 52.38% Pct of first drives, when you add the 3 missed FGs as somewhat of a sign of success you get a 66.67% rate on opening drives.
After that M is not nearly as successful:
28.63% success for the remainder of drives. M has been particularly bad on opening drives of the 2nd half. Scoring on only 1 of 21 attempts for a 4.76% success rate. There is a missed FG in there and 2 turn over on downs that would lead me to think they had some success moving down the field. At the best this could be 4/21 of for 19.05%.
Obviously I have no previous data to compare this to, but it seems odd that there would be such a difference between opening drive success and the remainder of the game.
BrianGoBlog often stated last year that M would come out with a new wrinkle be successful and then when the other team adjusted M couldn't. The trend seemed to be lessened earlier this season, but the past few weeks I think M has really regressed after their first drives.
| Opponent | First drive result |
|---|---|
| WMU | TD |
| ND | Punt |
| EMU | FG |
| Indiana | TD |
| MSU | FG |
| Iowa | TD |
| DelSt | TD |
| PSU | TD |
| Illinois | TD |
| Utah | Punt |
| Miami | TD |
| ND | TO |
| Wis | TO |
| Illinois | Missed FG |
| Toledo | Punt |
| PSU | TD |
| MSU | Punt |
| Purdue | Punt |
| Minn | FG |
| NorthW | Missed FG |
| OSU | Missed FG |
M scores on 52.38% Pct of first drives, when you add the 3 missed FGs as somewhat of a sign of success you get a 66.67% rate on opening drives.
After that M is not nearly as successful:
| success | # drives |
|---|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 |
| 6 | 12 |
| 4 | 13 |
| 3 | 12 |
| 3 | 13 |
| 8 | 11 |
| 1 | 13 |
| 2 | 11 |
| 4 | 15 |
| 2 | 11 |
| 3 | 13 |
| 3 | 15 |
| 4 | 13 |
| 2 | 11 |
| 3 | 12 |
| 3 | 15 |
| 5 | 12 |
| 6 | 10 |
| 1 | 13 |
| 1 | 15 |
28.63% success for the remainder of drives. M has been particularly bad on opening drives of the 2nd half. Scoring on only 1 of 21 attempts for a 4.76% success rate. There is a missed FG in there and 2 turn over on downs that would lead me to think they had some success moving down the field. At the best this could be 4/21 of for 19.05%.
Obviously I have no previous data to compare this to, but it seems odd that there would be such a difference between opening drive success and the remainder of the game.
BrianGoBlog often stated last year that M would come out with a new wrinkle be successful and then when the other team adjusted M couldn't. The trend seemed to be lessened earlier this season, but the past few weeks I think M has really regressed after their first drives.
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