Team 133 seniors in sarcasMike History

Since I won't be going to the Outback Bowl, Michigan's victory over Iowa was the last time I will have seen the seniors of team 133 play for the Wolverines. From my weekly prediction posts you can tell I keep track of the outcomes of all the Michigan games I have attended.

I have a separate database that tracks the individual Michigan player statistics (rushing, passing, receiving and interceptions) in the games I've attended as well. So where do the departing seniors rank?

Rushing (top 20 in yards rushing):

	Carries	Yards	avg	TD	lg	years
Hart, Michael	749	3,683	4.9	31	64	04-07
Thomas, Anthony	688	3,384	4.9	42	60	97-00
Robinson, Denard	459	2,940	6.4	31	79	09-12
Perry, Chris	545	2,720	5.0	29	63	00-03
Wheatley, Tyrone	370	2,294	6.2	26	82	91-94
Morris, Jamie	412	2,182	5.3	13	57	84-87
Boles, Tony	334	1,897	5.7	18	81	88-89
Biakabatuka, Tshimanga	236	1,583	6.7	12	60	93-95
Powers, Ricky	311	1,455	4.7	13	39	90-93
Minor, Brandon	221	1,245	5.6	15	55	06-09
Toussaint, Fitzgerald	204	1,163	5.7	11	61	10-12
Hoard, Leroy	216	1,138	5.3	14	54	87-89
Williams, Clarence	265	1,104	4.2	3	32	95-98
Smith, Vincent	185	1,027	5.6	9	56	09-12
Howard, Chris	211	969	4.6	9	30	94-97
Askew, BJ	202	935	4.6	12	30	99-02
Davis, Ed	193	898	4.7	8	33	92-95
Bunch, Jarrod	203	888	4.4	6	53	87-90
Shaw, Michael	133	837	6.3	12	50	08-11
Jefferson, Allen	133	761	5.7	8	70	87-90

Denard ends up 3rd in yards rushing, 4th in carries and tied for 2nd in rushing TDs. Vincent Smith became the 15th to top the 1,000 yard mark in games I've attended (he did it against U-Mass). Fitz Toussaint is, hopefully still active.

Passing (top 20 in yards):

	Att	comp	pct	QB Rate	yds	TD	int	lg	years
Henne, Chad	934	562	60.2%	132.8	6,284	59	22	69	04-07
Navarre, John	775	451	58.2%	130.7	5,355	43	15	64	00-03
Robinson, Denard	468	272	58.1%	152.3	4,335	39	26	77	09-12
Collins, Todd	423	281	66.4%	155.5	3,647	28	11	90	91-94
Brady, Tom	487	292	60.0%	134.1	3,636	26	15	57	96-99
Grbac, Elvis	439	278	63.3%	149.8	3,508	36	17	65	89-92
Harbaugh, Jim	292	196	67.1%	159.7	2,704	21	13	77	85-86
Henson, Drew	286	167	58.4%	141.0	2,240	17	4	75	98-00
Griese, Brian	317	180	56.8%	124.4	2,153	18	13	75	95-97
Forcier, Tate	276	169	61.2%	132.3	2,009	15	11	61	09-10
Dreisbach, Scott	236	127	53.8%	127.4	1,810	12	9	58	95-97
Taylor, Michael	206	122	59.2%	138.2	1,608	12	6	45	86-89
Brown, Demetrius	161	88	54.7%	135.8	1,376	10	9	53	86-88
Threet, Steven	164	77	47.0%	97.8	846	8	7	51	08
Gardner, Devin	77	47	61.0%	164.8	787	6	3	53	10-12
Mallett, Ryan	99	48	48.5%	111.3	631	4	2	48	07
Smith, Steve	53	24	45.3%	129.3	405	5	3	52	80-83
Leach, Rick	29	22	75.9%	278.4	385	8	0	63	76-78
Sheirdan, Nick	80	38	47.5%	78.6	352	1	4	35	07-09
Wangler, John	29	16	55.2%	162.5	292	2	0	45	76, 79-80

Denard also finishes 3rd in passing yards and TD passes and number 1 in interceptions. His QB rating is 3rd among the 1,000 yard passers. His yards per attempt really keep him in the running there. Devin Gardner is on track to take the all-time QB ranking title.

Receiving (top 20 in total receptions): 

	Catches	yards	avg	TD	lg	Years
Edwards, Braylon	152	2,120	13.9	29	64	01-04
Terrell, David	118	1,840	15.6	17	57	98-00
Walker, Marquise	114	1,475	12.9	11	75	98-01
Avant, Jason	109	1,403	12.9	8	54	02-05
Breaston, Steve	107	1,075	10.0	5	50	03-06
Manningham, Mario	99	1,633	16.5	19	69	05-07
Roundtree, Roy	93	1,506	16.2	10	75	09-12
Hayes, Mercury	81	1,468	18.1	10	58	92-95
Alexander, Derrick	79	1,317	16.7	15	90	89-90,92-93
Mathews, Greg	79	841	10.6	5	40	06-09
McMurtry, Greg	74	1,334	18.0	9	53	86-89
Arrington, Adrian	73	863	11.8	7	33	04-07
Streets, Tai	72	1,125	15.6	10	58	95-98
Howard, Desmond	70	1,050	15.0	14	64	89-91
Toomer, Amani	70	1,334	19.1	12	75	92-95
Askew, BJ	64	617	9.6	5	58	99-02
Hemingway, Junior	61	1,164	19.1	11	77	07-11
Thomas, Anthony	61	541	8.9	0	46	97-00
Morris, Jamie	59	435	7.4	1	24	84-87
Odoms, Martavious	58	664	11.4	3	50	08-11

Roy Roundtree is the only departing senior in the top 20. He finished 7th in receptions, 4th in yards and tied for 6th in TD receptions. Jeremy Gallon is just off the top 20 (50-874-4-77) so he should crack the list next season. 

Unfortunately no on on defense cracked the interceptions leaders. Kovacs career ended with 2, Kenny Demens and Craig Row with 1.

Some Mostly Useless Statistics

M has run only 22 plays while the games have been tied this year.

When trailing by 15 or more points, M averages 77 yards per pass play. (only 2 yards per rushing play)

M's winning streak is tied for 11th longest in the country (up from 16th last week).

While trailing, DRob averages just under 9 yards per carry.  When inside M's 20 yard line, he averages 11 yards per carry.

One Loss Teams

There are 12 one-loss teams in college football this year.  After the MSU blowout by Iowa, I got to thinking that it seemed like a lot of undefeated teams became one-loss teams in not-so-close games.  So I checked to see if that was accurate.

In the 12 games where the then undefeated/now one-loss teams lost, the average point difference is 12.  The median is 13.5.

12 isn't even close to the drubbing MSU took, but it isn't even close to a nailbiter either.  These are teams that are one loss away from being undefeated.

I'm not really sure what this means, but it makes me long for the many year period where M rarely lost by more than a TD.  Those were some really good teams.

3rd (4th) and Long Defense

I have it in my mind that M gives up first downs (or TDs, sometimes both) a lot on 3rd and long plays (or the subsequent 4th down).  I decided to look it up and see if my perception is true.  I decided to use defensive plays of 3rd down and 10 or more because a) the feeling I have is how ridiculously badly the D is doing and 10 yards is a ridiculous distance to get on one critical play and b) If I used a smaller number it would take me longer to gather the data.

I was very surprised that M gave up first downs (or TDs, sometimes both) on only 2 of 7 3rd and 10+ attempts (and subsequent 4th downs) today.  It seemed like every long 3rd down was successful for the Indiana, but in fact M forced 3 punts, and twice prevented Indiana from making it on 4th down.

For the season M has allowed first downs (or TDs, sometimes both) 9 times out of 26 3rd and longs.  It is a little sad to think if the D can hold a team to no gain or loss of yardage on the first two plays of a sequence, 1/3 of the time they will allow a first down anyhow.

But, looking closer shows that 4 of these 9 were against UConn (4 of 6).  Since then, M has a 5 out of 20 rate.  The worst one for this season was today's 3rd and 19.

In second quarters this year, M's rate is 3 of 4

I don't know what all of this means.  I think it shows that M has improved since the UConn game, but still has that vulnerability.  If I have time I will compare it to some other team to see how those numbers come up.

M at ND

I keep hearing things like this from GBMWolverine:

Call it the luck of the Irish, but Michigan has struggled at Notre Dame.

So I decided to see if that is really true.

Since 1990, M is 2-5-1 in South Bend.  Not a great record, but there are a couple things that make it not as bad as it seems.

1) The average point difference in those games for M is -2.5
2) In AA against ND since 1990, M is 6-2 (pretty much the same record).  But, the point difference for M is +11.25.

Though it may be true M struggles in South Bend, ND struggles much more in Ann Arbor.  It will be interesting if that is mentioned next year.

I don't have time right now, but I bet any relatively even series will have the home team winning significanly more than the road team.

Drives

M had 4 drives of 11 plays or more. If the weakness is the defense, then that ball control offense may be the best defensive strategy.

Something to shoot for this week

If my computation (addition in my head) is correct, M has scored 35 more points than has allowed this season (thanks Delaware St.). Though I don't want to be getting toward the end of the game cheering hard for OSU to not get that late TD to win by 5 TDs, we all know it is a possibility.

Why is this important? M hasn't had consecutive years where the opponent outscored them since 1958-1959. And we know this team likes to break streaks.

Early prediction
OSU 51
M 17
woo hoo!!!

Data

I just subscribed to our blog using my Google reader and I was the only person who has subscribed. It mentioned there are 12.6 posts per week.

First drives vs all others under RR

I got the feeling that M seems to have a very good first drive, but then tapers off under RR.

Opponent	First drive result
WMU	TD
ND	Punt
EMU	FG
Indiana	TD
MSU	FG
Iowa	TD
DelSt	TD
PSU	TD
Illinois	TD
Utah	Punt
Miami	TD
ND	TO
Wis	TO
Illinois	Missed FG
Toledo	Punt
PSU	TD
MSU	Punt
Purdue	Punt
Minn	FG
NorthW	Missed FG
OSU	Missed FG

M scores on 52.38% Pct of first drives, when you add the 3 missed FGs as somewhat of a sign of success you get a 66.67% rate on opening drives.

After that M is not nearly as successful:

success	# drives
4	10
7	12
6	12
4	13
3	12
3	13
8	11
1	13
2	11
4	15
2	11
3	13
3	15
4	13
2	11
3	12
3	15
5	12
6	10
1	13
1	15

28.63% success for the remainder of drives. M has been particularly bad on opening drives of the 2nd half. Scoring on only 1 of 21 attempts for a 4.76% success rate. There is a missed FG in there and 2 turn over on downs that would lead me to think they had some success moving down the field. At the best this could be 4/21 of for 19.05%.

Obviously I have no previous data to compare this to, but it seems odd that there would be such a difference between opening drive success and the remainder of the game.

BrianGoBlog often stated last year that M would come out with a new wrinkle be successful and then when the other team adjusted M couldn't. The trend seemed to be lessened earlier this season, but the past few weeks I think M has really regressed after their first drives.

3rd Quarter

M has still not allowed a TD in the 3rd Quarter. Total points allowed in the 3rd is 9.

What is interesting, though, is that M has only scored 28 in the third Qtr. No, that's not interesting. What is interesting is that M has not scored a FG in the 3rd Qtr this year.

PSU hasn't allowed a TD in the 3rd QTR since the first game when they were outscored by Akron 7-0 in that QTr.

So, the 3rd Qtr this week will likely have M outscoring PSU 7-3. Or less.

Gladstone

Before tonight's games, The Braves is ranked 98th in playoff points in the state. That is out of 618 schools. Not bad.

I don't know where Hillman is. I didn't want to count that many. #22 in Class D. There are only 66 teams in Class D.

Iowa

I know we don't play Iowa for another week, but their win over PSU got me wondering how good they really are. I know they are 4-0. There are still a lot of those teams left. But what is amazing is that every team Iowa has beaten is currently 3-1. Without looking, I'm sure no other team in the country can claim that.

I still have no idea how good they are. I'll assume the answer is 'better than Michigan'.

ToP

I think any almost argument based on Time of Possession is weak, but after three games it is very weak. Here are the numbers through the first 3 games.

TOP	M	Opp
WMU	34:20	25:40
Notre Dame	28:35	31:25
EMU	19:58	40:02

After the first 2 games M was probably above average in ToP. They had "outposessed" the opposition. The kickoff return for a TD played some role in ND game ToP, but so did M's inability to stop the Irish in the 2nd and 4th quarters.
ToP in the EMU was and then wasn't important. The M defense really did not stop EMU much in the first half. That played as much a role in the 2:1 ratio as M's quick scores.
There is limited data but I would say the ToP is more likely the result not the cause of poor defensive play.

Someone on MGoBlog created a new stat to rival ToP - not sure I understand it but here's the link.

The biggest trend I find in M's statistics is their final scores - 31 - 38 - 45. If this keeps up they'll score 108 against the Buckeyes.

Time of Possession

M is currently 101st (out of 120) in TOP. I have heard RR and Sam Webb make this as part of the excuse of why the D is doing poorly. Though, there may be something to that, you have to expect this is going to happen all year. And the D needs to be able to hang out there much longer. It is funny that the D isn't used to it yet, as M led the conference in 3s and out last year.

I just think the D has weaknesses, ultimately, and if they don't correct them will be responsible for M's 5 or 6 losses. Or 4.

M Passing yards in games I've attended

Since M ended with only 68 yards passing in their victory over EMU, I wondered if that was the fewest passing yards I've seen them have. As you can see in the table below of all the 100 yards or less games, it was actually the 4th lowest total.

Game	Date	Att	comp	pct	QB Rate	yds	TD	int	lg
Northwestern	31-Oct-87	5	1	20.0%	25.0	3	0	0	3	Win
Minnesota	30-Oct-76	5	4	80.0%	279.2	40	2	0	22	Win
at Iowa	19-Oct-85	13	8	61.5%	122.5	55	1	0	15	Loss
EMU	19-Sep-09	17	7	41.2%	51.2	68	0	2	26	Win
Iowa	22-Oct-83	18	6	33.3%	44.2	71	0	2	24	Win
Notre Dame	14-Sep-85	17	7	41.2%	77.7	74	0	0	17	Win
At Notre Dame	10-Sep-88	11	8	72.7%	129.2	74	0	0	19	Loss
At MSU	14-Oct-89	15	8	53.3%	82.6	76	0	1	17	Win
OSU	17-Nov-07	37	12	32.4%	49.7	76	0	0	10	Loss
Iowa	20-Oct-90	17	10	58.8%	87.1	81	0	1	37	Loss
Northwestern	15-Nov-08	36	12	33.3%	47.1	83	0	1	24	Loss
Northwestern	13-Oct-84	12	9	75.0%	163.4	87	1	0	28	Win
Notre Dame	15-Sep-07	15	7	46.7%	163.1	90	3	0	26	Win
Wake Forest	24-Sep-88	11	6	54.5%	124.0	91	0	0	31	Win
Northwestern	7-Oct-95	34	14	41.2%	53.1	96	0	2	13	Loss
Wisconsin	27-Sep-08	31	12	38.7%	62.5	96	1	2	26	Win
OSU	25-Nov-89	16	8	50.0%	110.6	100	1	1	24	Win

I vaguely remember the 1-5 day Michael Taylor had in 1987. I think it followed the 7 interceptions D. Brown threw at MSU. M is 11-6 in the 17 games. The list includes my Fist Michigan game (note Leach still had 2 TDs), the #1 vs. #2 match-up in Iowa City, Bo's last regular season game, the comeback last year against Wisconsin and the horrible weather game with Northwestern that ended the home season last year.

Mallett

Though he has only played one game, and it was against a I-AA opponent, Ryan Mallett leads the nation in passing efficiency.

Standard deviation

What exactly does this mean?

TDs

Here are the players who have scored the most TDs in a single game for Michigan in games I've seen:

Player	Opponent	Date	total td
Alexander, Derrick	Minnesota	24-Oct-92	4
Howard, Chris	UCLA	28-Sep-96	4
Perry, Chris	Florida	1-Jan-03	4
Perry, Chris	Notre Dame	13-Sep-03	4
Minor, Brandon	at Purdue	1-Nov-08	3*

Minor is tied with 29 others who have scored 3 TDs in a game.

As for total TDs accounted for (scored or passed for)

Player	Opponent	Date	scored	passed for	total td
Leach, Rick	Minnesota	28-Oct-78	2	3	5
Smith, Steve	Minnesota	30-Oct-82	1	3	4
Brown, Demetrius	Iowa	17-Oct-87	1	3	4
Grbac, Elvis	FSU	28-Sep-91	0	4	4
Collins, Todd	Houston	26-Sep-92	0	4	4
Grbac, Elvis	Minnesota	24-Oct-92	0	4	4
Alexander, Derrick	Minnesota	24-Oct-92	4	0	4
Griese, Brian	Minnesota	28-Oct-95	0	4	4
Howard, Chris	UCLA	28-Sep-96	4	0	4
Dreisbach, Scott	MSU	2-Nov-96	0	4	4
Griese, Brian	Iowa	18-Oct-97	1	3	4
Brady, Tom	Alabama	1-Jan-00	0	4	4
Navarre, John	BGSU	2-Sep-00	0	4	4
Henson, Drew	at Northwestern	4-Nov-00	0	4	4
Navarre, John	WMU	7-Sep-02	0	4	4
Navarre, John	MSU	2-Nov-02	1	3	4
Perry, Chris	Florida	1-Jan-03	4	0	4
Perry, Chris	Notre Dame	13-Sep-03	4	0	4
Henne, Chad	MSU	30-Oct-04	0	4	4
Henne, Chad	Texas	1-Jan-05	0	4	4
Henne, Chad	at MSU	3-Nov-07	0	4	4
Minor, Brandon	at Purdue	1-Nov-08	3	0	3*

Here Minor is tied with 61 others.

M individual game receiving yards

Here are the top 10 plus active high for most receiving yards by an M receiver in games I've attended.

Rank	Player	Opponent	Date	Catches	yards	avg	TD	lg
1	Edwards, Braylon	MSU	30-Oct-04	11	189	17.2	3	46
2	Alexander, Derrick	Illinois	23-Oct-93	7	188	26.9	2	90
3	Toomer, Amani	BC	3-Sep-94	7	179	25.6	2	46
4	Hayes, Mercury	Virginia	26-Aug-95	7	179	25.6	2	43
5	Toomer, Amani	Minnesota	28-Oct-95	5	177	35.4	2	75
6	Manningham, Mario	Minnesota	27-Oct-07	5	162	32.4	1	48
7	Walker, Marquise	OSU	24-Nov-01	15	160	10.7	2	47
8	Terrell, David	Alabama	1-Jan-00	10	150	15.0	3	57
9	Edwards, Braylon	Iowa	25-Sep-04	6	150	25.0	1	58
10	Kolesar, John	Purdue	9-Nov-85	4	148	37.0	2	65
25t	Odoms, Martavious	Illinois	4-Oct-08	7	129	18.4	0	30

Of course Braylon with the dominant 3OT game vs. the Spartans. Hayes racked up he yardage (and the winning score) in Lloyd Carr's first game comeback. Walker was one TD short in the first match-up with Tressel. Alexander with the 90 yard bomb against the Illini, if only Powers doesn't fumble or the defense could stop a scrambling Johnnie Johnson. David Terrell's performance in Tommy Brady's last game was dominant. Take that ess eee see speed!

Indivdual game passing stats

Here's the top yard passing games from Michigan QBs in games I've attended.

Rank	Player	Opponent	Date	Att	comp	pct	QB Rate	yds	TD	int	lg
1	Brady, Tom	at OSU	21-Nov-98	56	31	55.4%	110.4	375	1	2	40
2	Dreisbach, Scott	Virginia	26-Aug-95	52	27	51.9%	117.0	372	2	2	43
3	Brady, Tom	Alabama	1-Jan-00	46	34	73.9%	170.0	369	4	0	57
4	Collins, Todd	Minnesota	12-Nov-94	27	15	55.6%	194.3	352	3	1	57
5	Henne, Chad	Minnesota	9-Oct-04	49	33	67.3%	128.9	328	2	2	32
6	Navarre, John	Florida	1-Jan-03	36	21	58.3%	141.9	319	1	0	49
7	Henson, Drew	at Northwestern	4-Nov-00	35	23	65.7%	178.3	312	4	0	25
8	Henne, Chad	USC	1-Jan-07	41	26	63.4%	137.9	309	2	1	41
9	Brady, Tom	Illinois	23-Oct-99	38	23	60.5%	135.2	307	2	2	32
10	Henson, Drew	Auburn	1-Jan-01	20	15	75.0%	231.5	294	2	0	59
176	Sheridan, Nick	Utah	30-Aug-08	19	11	57.9%	108.1	98	1	1	35

M was only 6-4 in the top ten games. The defense couldn't stop OSU in the top game. M kept cutting the game down to one score, but OSU didn't play not to lose - they kept scoring.
The Dreisbach game, was Carr's first as HC. I think everyone expected he would be pulled at the half because he looked awful. Totally different player in the 2nd half.
Henson in the Northwestern game, it was the 54-51 game in Evanston. That game was won and lost so many times int he last few minutes.
In the Brady loss vs. M had a big lead that they somehow lost. Even so M was driving down for what was going to be the winning score when the center snapped the ball over his head. Leading to a 3rd and 30 or so. M gave up another score then drove the length of the field again only to throw an interception for a safety with only a few seconds left. CRAZY game.