M vs. Notre Dame prediction based on historical data

M is 222-63-1 in all games I have attended
M is 86-20 in non-conference games

M is 3-1 in non-conference regular season games played in October or November
M is 10-4 vs. Notre Dame (5 straight victories)

M is 13-6 vs Independents

M is 0-2 when facing a second independent opponent in the same season

M is 3-0 vs. Brian Kelly

M is 25-9 in the 5^th game I have attended in a season

M is 13-5 in night games

M is 4-1 in 7:30 starts

M is 17-10-1 in games that I have noted the weather in the spreadsheet – rain is expected Saturday night

M is 90-32-1 vs. schools with Human based nicknames

M is 56-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname

M is 142-45-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 28

ND 24

Michigan - Notre Dame prediction based on night games in South Bend

The 2018 M- Notre Dame game has little to do with the games played in 1982, 1988, 1990, 2012 and 2014.
One thing they do have in common is darkness in South Bend. The game is tomorrow NIGHT and M has not won a night game in South Bend.

M 17
ND 21

all-time win percentage

As I write this ND is tied with Rutgers (Go boneg).

Coming into today Michigan and Notre Dame are 1-2 in all-time win percentage.

M is 910-320-36 for 0.73301738

ND is 873-305-42 for 0.73278689

If ND wins this afternoon they will move to 0.73300573. Still behind M, so regardless of this outcome, M will go into tonight as the win percentage leader.

If M loses, however, they will fall behind ND with 0.73243883. 

M - Notre Dame Prediction based on historical data

M is 180-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is ONLY for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 60-14 in non-conference games
M is 151-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 153-35-1 when ranked
M is 8-1 when ranked #17
M is 1-0 when their opponent is ranked #14
M is 25-17 vs. higher ranked opponents
M is 9-4 vs. Notre Dame
M is 10-6 vs. Independents
M is 10-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 105-26 on artificial turf
M is 54-19-1 when facing schools with human-ish nicknames
M is 22-6 in the 2nd game of the season
M is 32-7 vs. schools from Indiana
M is 33-11-1 vs. teams with adjectives commonly used in their nickname
M is 5-2 in night games
M is 13-4 in games when the next loss would be evenly divisible by 10
M is 2-0 vs. teams that it is likely the last time I will ever see the teams play in person again (Long Beach State has dropped football & Delaware State - just because.

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 23 ND 21

M vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Back in January I predicted M would lose to Notre Dame. Unfortunately, nothing has really happened to change my opinion.

That being said, I will be surprised if it as easy a victory for the Irish as they had over MSU. I think M's offense has more options than MSU's does.

I think that the teams are pretty even and Michigan has gotten last minute wins the past 3 years. This one is at ND and it looks like it might be cool and rainy. Barring a substantial loss in the turnover battle, I would expect Michigan to keep it close. I just think their last minute magic has to run out sometime...

M 24 ND 27

M - Notre Dame prediction based on historical data

M is 165-47-1 in all games I have attended (all data refers only to games I've attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 137-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 32-7 in games with #16 as starting QB
M is 9-6 against Independents
M is 20-6 in the 2nd game I have attended in a particular season
M is 8-4 against Notre Dame
M is 117-20-1 in games against unranked teams
M is 24-14 when unranked
M is 30-7 against schools from Indiana
M is 0-2 on September 10 (both losses to Notre Dame, one at night!)
M is 3-0 when facing a coach for the first time with his second team (i.e. I saw Brian Kelly's CMU team face Michigan, now this is the first time I've seen his ND team face Michigan)
M is 5-2 when facing a teams for the 12th time
M is 3-0 when facing the 6th different head coach for an opponent
M is 46-18-1 against teams with human(ish) mascots
M is 30-10-1 against teams with adjectives commonly used in their nickname
M is 26-8 against private schools

It's simple when you add it all up.

M 19
ND 24

Fake field goal timing etc

When I hear people talk about the play clock on MSUs fake field goal, I'm not sure if they're talking about the ESPN clock - which was went to :00 before the play clock or the actual play clock in the stadium.

It looks to me like the play clock got down to :00 as well, but then the snap occurred almost immediately afterward. I completely buy the BigEast explanation that the ref sees the clock go to zero then looks down at the play to see if the ball has been snapped. By that time the ball was likely already snapped.

If you have a team that is trying to run clock, you should put the play clock as high up as possible - more head turning time...

About Drob against ND

The amzing thing is that he did again. Everyone knows what he is capable of after the UConn game and he still was able to put up impossible numbers. He can't do this every game, can he?   He certainnly isn't going to do it against UMass and hopefully not against Bowling Green because he shouldn't play but half the game if M does what it is supposed to.  I hope.  He could, I guess, have 3 carries for 210 yards in the only three plays he is out there.   
-I don't think he had the holes like he did against UConn. That is a little concerning
-He was responsible for 84% of the plays.  Yikes  I don't know if the team can rely on one person so much and expect to succeed for 12 games.  Losing him could be the collapse of the offense.  Not just a significant setback, but the collapse.
-I love that play where he looks like he is running a sweep.  He is actually closer to the line of scrimmage, so it doesn't even seem like he would do anything else.  Then, when the safety (isn't it?) comes in to make the play on him, he tosses it to the slot receiver right where the defender had been playing.  Amazing.  In some ways it reminds me of the Tim Tebow option/shovel pass play where it seemed there is no way to stop it.  Of course, Drob could have run the play more times than the passes and I just didn't notice it, and he could have had no gain. Anyhow, I like it.
-Drob's passing was OK, even with the number of incompletions.  I'm still not convinced he can be a successful downfield passer.  That one in the end zone that Roundtree couldn't come up with, though, was a very good throw.  I will comment on that during my offense (Non-Drob) roundup.   No interceptions, and I really expected at least two this week.  As long as the receivers get open (enough) and/or Drob can hit them on the perimeter and they get positive yardage, he will continue to not throw interceptions.
-I was surprised last week that Drob didn't break a long run.  His TD wasn't short, but I really expect that with his speed he will be having extra-long TD runs every game.  85 yards is extra long.  I expect this too happen at least every other game (50+ yards).  Every time he is running it, there is a possibility.  He is fast, after all.  This will easily keep his rushing yards to a crazy high number.  Probably 100 every game.  Even when he doesn't have to win it for M like he did against ND.
-Speaking of fast, he isn't just fast at running. But on that one play when he was bogged up on the left side, reversed field and ran right, he went from holding the ball as a ball-carrier and pulling it out to pass it so quickly, even watching the replays I can't figure out how he did it.  Amazing.
-Denard's numbers definitely are heading towards the Heisman.  If he keeps this up, there is no way they could not give it to him, even if M finishes 6-6.  But after 2 games in 1990, Jon Vaughn was definitely on his way to a Heisman if he kept up his average of 244 yards per game average.  He didn't.  And in 1991, I thought Desmond Howard...(oh, wait).

The Offense Against ND (except Drob)

The OLine did not make the holes as often as they did against UConn.  I never really felt any running back had a good hole to be able to make their own play.  If they have this problem against better teams, there could be some other Drob miracle finishes required to win.
-I was surprised there weren't more perimeter plays.  Where were all of the screens/bubble screens, end arounds, etc.  ?  The ND D seemed to shutting down the inside pretty well.
-This game emphasized that there are not big play receivers on this team.  They catch the ball fine, they get a few yards after the catch pretty well, but I don't expect to see any of them making a great move and blowing past the DBs after a catch.  I don't expect any of them battling with a DB for a ball in the air and coming down with it.  I don't think there is a receiver on the team that would have caught the Roundtree ball in the end zone.  And that is sad.  It was very catchable, though difficult.  I just don't have the confidence in the receivers to catch a ball that is thrown to a well-covered receiver. Good, scrappy, serviceable.  Not playmakers, necessarily.  If we ever need a receiver to win a game for us, I just don't think any of them will be able to do it.  I much more confidence in the RBs.
-So, about  days ago I admitted that I didn't like Odoms.  Since then, he has made some nice catches on key plays (he seemed like the only receiver getting open early on) and whenver there is a play downfield, you see him preventing his man from getting to the ball carrier.  He is scrappy and he is a decent receiver.  No worse than the other ones M has.  He has done everything you could ask out of an undersized, scrappy split end.  If he continues this, I will take back my not liking him.
-Not much to say about the RBs, as the Oline didn't do much for them. It will be interesting to see how they do against Indiana and MSU
-I was surprised about the lack of penalties against UConn and I expected more this week on both sides of the ball, but there were way too many.  And some of them were at the most horrible times.  I'm assuming the norm will be somewhere in the middle.
-Other than wanting more perimeter plays at different times during the game (especially screen), I like the play selection.

The Defense Against ND

I already mentioned the penalties.
-After the first defensive possession, the D did what is was ultimate supposed to do other than a couple of big plays.  They kept ND out of the end zone.  I'd like to think that those big plays are the kind of thing that won't happen again, but we know they are.  Hopefully, the DBs will play smarter than have been, but they really are not fast.
-Even though ND was kept out of the end zone other than the first drive and the two big plays, the D seemed to have a lot more missed coverage assignments, and certainly had a lot more missed tackles.  I figure that is probably closer to what we can expect against good teams this year.  Hopefully, I'm wrong.
-Overall, the conservative defense seemed to be working.  Bend but don't break was somewhat effective.
-I was surprised there weren't any sacks last week.  The DLine (and others) were responsible for a couple sacks this week, and some good pressure causing some passes to thrown badly.
-Mouton had some great plays, but I can't agree with the announcers who said he was one of the best players on the team.  I hope he can become that, though.  Ezeh is frustrating.  He'll make a good play, then you'll wonder on the next play whether he has lead in his shoes.
-The DBs are going to exploited all year.  We know they aren't great, but can they just not be so stupid?
-Basically, if the D front can stop the run and put pressure on the QBs, the D will survive.

Special Teams Against ND and other stuff

FG kicking is a problem, clearly.  That could have cost us the game.
-Hagerup may have a strong leg, but he is very inconsistent.  I'm not sure if it was the weather, or if it is the pressure, but those were some awful punts.
-Coverage teams were decent.
-I'll take Gallon making a fair catch every time, as long as he catches it.
-Stonum needs to be more aware of what's going on when he catches a KO in the end zone.  I expect him to return one for a TD this year.  Hopefully, it will be in a big game and not next week.

I'm not convinced I can change my overall record prediction for this season yet, even though M has now won two of my predicted loss games.  There are three reasons for this
1) Denard Robinson.  a-He is so much of the offense, we have to worry about him getting hurt.  If he gets hurt, what is going to happen to the offense.  b-What if someone figures out a way to stop him.  ND was successful at different times causing more punts than we want to do.  M didn't score for over a 2 quarters.  Maybe there will be a team that can do that for 3.
2) The D allows big plays on defense.  M had ND on their heels, and with one snap of the ball, it was a one score game.  Then they get pinned inside their 10 and (then their 5) and one snap of the ball gives ND the lead.  Any close game is one defensive snap away from a loss with this D. 
3) I just don't know how good this team is.  I probably will know more after the MSU game. Probably. 
I know that if M beats Indiana that will be 3 of my predicted losses as victories.  I'm going to wait until at least the MSU game to see if one of my predicted wins is a loss.  Until then, I'm sticking with 6-6 and losing in the bowl game.  unless...

If M plays an SEC team in a bowl game, M will win.  I don't know why I am predicting this, but I am so sick of the talk about SEC speed and seeing M's speed that I am going to predict an M win over an SEC team in a bowl.  By 10.

Good to see Tate Forcier was acting like he was a team player.  If he pretends he has a better attitude, RR will recognize that as having a good attitude and will respond accordingly, saying Tate has a good attitude.  At least, that's the way it worked with my boss.

Both ND and Michigan tried to let the other team win the game, but neither team took advantage.  It resulted in a darn exciting game.

Didn't sound like much of a Michigan crowd at the game.  In the past M games in South Bend, it seems like you can hear more of a positive response when M does something well.  I didn't hear that this time.  Of course, I wasn't deaf in one ear the last time M played at ND.

The M flag logo was nice, but he ND flag logo was horrible.  You couldn't even tell it was ND.  I think the problem is that the ND letters on that version of the logo were wider than some other versions of the logo (less non-letter portion to the logo), like on the NBC broadcast, for instance.  I noticed once when they showed the ND band, the trombones had covers on the end of their slides and some of them had the logo with the thin letters and some had wider letters.  You'd think someone would look at that when it is being designed and say "I don't think you'll be able to tell that looks like ND from that far away".  I guess not.

Non-M
Why does VTU wear white jerseys at home?  After wearing ugly colorful jerseys against Boise St. and then this, they deserved to lose to JMU (purple jersey).

M at ND

I keep hearing things like this from GBMWolverine:

Call it the luck of the Irish, but Michigan has struggled at Notre Dame.

So I decided to see if that is really true.

Since 1990, M is 2-5-1 in South Bend.  Not a great record, but there are a couple things that make it not as bad as it seems.

1) The average point difference in those games for M is -2.5
2) In AA against ND since 1990, M is 6-2 (pretty much the same record).  But, the point difference for M is +11.25.

Though it may be true M struggles in South Bend, ND struggles much more in Ann Arbor.  It will be interesting if that is mentioned next year.

I don't have time right now, but I bet any relatively even series will have the home team winning significanly more than the road team.

5 years 5 different QBs

The other day I saw this tweet on the twitters

RT @jdubs88: Notre Dame will be facing its 4th different Wolverine starting QB in as many seasons when Michigan visits on Saturday. 9:03 AM Sep 8th via ÜberTwitter

Unless I'm wrong, it will actually be the 5th, in 5 years.

2010 - Robinson
2009 - Forcier
2008 - Threet
2007 - Mallett
2006 - Henne

I can't imagine that has happened very many times in M history. Mallett started 3 games in 2007 - Notre Dame, Penn State and Northwestern. So unless Forcier is back as starting QB, PSU will face it's 5th different consecutive starting M QB as well.

I was able to find a case with 4 consecutive different starters, these games against OSU.

1978 - Leach
1979 - Hewlett
1980 - Wangler
1981 - Smith

ND Prediction

As nice as last week felt, I have a hard time having complete confidence in this team.  I want to predict a victory in every game, but I just can't

I think ND will go up a couple scores due to turnovers.  We'll exchange scores throughout and M won't be able to catch up.

ND 34
M 28

M @ Notre Dame Prediction

I really have no idea on Saturday's game. Here's some of my guesses.

• ND does a better job limiting Denard's running game, but the backs are more productive
• M's passing game is less efficient - at least one interception (see below)
  
• M commits their first turnover (and then their second)
• M's defense is still surprisingly effective (or at least better than preseason predictions)
  
• Gibbons, has a better week
• Notre Dame gets an early score, but then M keeps their poise and the game is close the whole way.
• Michigan trailing late is unable to get Notre Dame off the field and the game ends

M 20 - ND 24

Fighting Irish Statue

I couldn't actually find a statue of a fighting Irishman on the ND campus, but there is one of Knute Rockne.

Favorite Notre Dame Players

#17 Matthew Mulvey Jr. QB (not on the depth chart)
#77 Matt Romine Sr. OT (backup left tackle)
#5 Armando Allen Jr. TB (starting running back)
#5 Manti Te'o So ILB (starting inside linebacker)

Notre Dame Fight Song

Notre Dame Victory March


Of course this is a classic and everyone has heard it before. What I like most about it is that during the main part of it (the trio?), it says much more than most fight songs. Usually, we just hear things like "we will win. we are great", but the Victory March asks to "wake up the echos" and "shake down the thunder." They recognized tradition way back in 1908. Nice.

Cheer, cheer for old Notre Dame,
Wake up the echoes cheering her name,
Send a volley cheer on high,
Shake down the thunder from the sky.
What though the odds be great or small
Old Notre Dame will win over all,
While her loyal sons are marching
Onward to victory.

Countdown to Kickoff - day 5

September 12, 2009

Michigan 38 - Notre Dame 34

I think the majority of the reason I hope Tate Forcier is the main QB for Michigan in 2010, is because of his performance in this game. He seemed to be channeling the best M QB performances. The read and fake and run up the middle for the long TD lead to one of the largest roars I've ever heard in the Big House. Then he topped that with the last drive to win the game. I don't know if it was injury, better defense, or his own limitations that slowed him the rest of the season, but for those first 4 weeks of 2009, Forcier seemed like he was destined for big things.

The stadium never looked better. I think this was the best job they've ever done with a Maize Out. The Student Block M was very nice as well.

Brandon Minor put M on the board with a TD plunge. ND answered with a field goal (after a correct out-of-bounds call took a TD off the board). It appeared the 1st quarter would end 7-3 when Darryl Stonum took the kick off back the distance to make it 14-3 Michigan. The Irish scored the next 17 points to take a 20-14 lead late in the half. The fans were starting to get restless. On a 4th and 11, Forcier scrambled and found Greg (jiMpossible'ssonpossesive) Mathews for the first down, moving the ball close enough for a field goal before the half.

The momentum seemed to carry over into the second half, Michigan drove the length of the field, but got stopped on 3rd and goal. When Jason Olesnavage missed the field goal, the drive came up empty. The Irish turned it right back to Michigan on a fumble. Forcier found Kevin Koger who stretched into the endzone to put M back in front.
Early in the 4th Forcier made the aforementioned TD run on 4th and 3 from the Irish 31. Unfortunately just as the last time M had an 11 point lead, the Irish answered with 14 straight points to go back in front 34-31 with just over 5 minutes left.

When M punted with 3:12 left, I remember thinking they were unlikely to get the ball back. After M stopped the 1st down run, the Irish threw 2 incomplete passes. Their punt (and the incomplete passes) left M with 2 timeouts, 57 yards and 2:13 on the clock. What I remember most about the drive was how calm Forcier seemed during the whole thing. Fans around us were screaming that M was taking too long between plays, they needed to save more time etc. At the time I thought it was perfect. If M didn't score they wouldn't be able to stop the clock anyway, so take your time, make sure it is right...
A pair of back to back catches - first by Martavious Odoms then by LaTerryal Savoy gave M a first down and goal at the 5 with 22 seconds left.
On first down Forcier had a ridiculous scramble that ended up with ball hitting Savoy in the hands in the endzone. An Irish defender did just enough to deflect or distract to cause his to drop it.
Then this happened! The clock ran out as the Irish attempted a late rush and Michigan escaped with a great victory!

Countdown to Kickoff - 16 days

September 16, 2006

Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21

Both teams entered undefeated. Notre Dame was ranked #2 in the country, Michigan was #11. Notre Dame has picked apart a decent Penn State team the week before and were favored against the Wolverines.

I got us tickets through some scalper site online. The asterisk next to one of the seat numbers made me a little nervous. I was worried, they were handicapped seating or something like that, but it turns out it meant it was an aisle seat.

The Irish tried to set the tone right off the bat, Brady Quinn went deep to Jeff Samardzija, but Morgan Trent (Trent Morgan?) broke it up. After an offside penalty Quinn went to the air again. This time he found Prescott Burgess, who took it back for a Michigan TD.

A few minutes later Chad Henne's pass was intercepted an taken back inside the Michigan 5, leading to the first ND TD, and the game was quickly tied at 7.

Late in the quarter Henne found Mario Manningham wide open for the second M TD. The teams traded special teams errors, but it was more costly for the Irish. Michigan's PAT failed, leaving the score 13-7. Then ND fumbled the kick off, giving the Wolverines the deep in ND territory. Mike Hart cashed it in, and Michigan lead 20-7 going into the 2nd quarter.

Early in the 2nd, Henne found Manningham again putting Michigan up 27-7. But Henne and Mannningham weren't done. A third TD pass put Michigan up 34-7 late in the half. The stadium was stunned. Even confident Michigan fans, couldn't have expected this thrashing. When the Irish cut right through Michigan's defense for a quick score right before the half, I admit to thinking, "That was too easy, they're going to come back in the 2nd half and it is going to be an embarrassing result." That was not the case.

Michigan's defense was just too strong for the Irish. Burgess almost had his second interception return for a TD, but was tackled inside the 5. Michigan settled for a Rivas field goal 37-14.

After that the M defense just began teeing off on Quinn. Michigan Left South Bend with a dominating 47-21 victory, and the Michigan fans left Notre Dame Stadium, like few visiting fans get to...