Countdown to Kickoff - day 5

September 12, 2009

Michigan 38 - Notre Dame 34

I think the majority of the reason I hope Tate Forcier is the main QB for Michigan in 2010, is because of his performance in this game. He seemed to be channeling the best M QB performances. The read and fake and run up the middle for the long TD lead to one of the largest roars I've ever heard in the Big House. Then he topped that with the last drive to win the game. I don't know if it was injury, better defense, or his own limitations that slowed him the rest of the season, but for those first 4 weeks of 2009, Forcier seemed like he was destined for big things.

The stadium never looked better. I think this was the best job they've ever done with a Maize Out. The Student Block M was very nice as well.

Brandon Minor put M on the board with a TD plunge. ND answered with a field goal (after a correct out-of-bounds call took a TD off the board). It appeared the 1st quarter would end 7-3 when Darryl Stonum took the kick off back the distance to make it 14-3 Michigan. The Irish scored the next 17 points to take a 20-14 lead late in the half. The fans were starting to get restless. On a 4th and 11, Forcier scrambled and found Greg (jiMpossible'ssonpossesive) Mathews for the first down, moving the ball close enough for a field goal before the half.

The momentum seemed to carry over into the second half, Michigan drove the length of the field, but got stopped on 3rd and goal. When Jason Olesnavage missed the field goal, the drive came up empty. The Irish turned it right back to Michigan on a fumble. Forcier found Kevin Koger who stretched into the endzone to put M back in front.
Early in the 4th Forcier made the aforementioned TD run on 4th and 3 from the Irish 31. Unfortunately just as the last time M had an 11 point lead, the Irish answered with 14 straight points to go back in front 34-31 with just over 5 minutes left.

When M punted with 3:12 left, I remember thinking they were unlikely to get the ball back. After M stopped the 1st down run, the Irish threw 2 incomplete passes. Their punt (and the incomplete passes) left M with 2 timeouts, 57 yards and 2:13 on the clock. What I remember most about the drive was how calm Forcier seemed during the whole thing. Fans around us were screaming that M was taking too long between plays, they needed to save more time etc. At the time I thought it was perfect. If M didn't score they wouldn't be able to stop the clock anyway, so take your time, make sure it is right...
A pair of back to back catches - first by Martavious Odoms then by LaTerryal Savoy gave M a first down and goal at the 5 with 22 seconds left.
On first down Forcier had a ridiculous scramble that ended up with ball hitting Savoy in the hands in the endzone. An Irish defender did just enough to deflect or distract to cause his to drop it.
Then this happened! The clock ran out as the Irish attempted a late rush and Michigan escaped with a great victory!

Comment #1

With Denard Robinson becoming more and more a possibility of being a starter or significant player, and being cautious that forcier could be injury prone and actually miss games due to injury, the main concern I have about Robinson isn’t whether he can make the plays (run and pass), though that will always be there until he produces during a game when it matters. Rather, the primary thing I wonder is whether Drob, as a running qb, is fit enough to play an entire game and still be effective at the end of the game. Hopefully, Tate will play well enough to either play the entire game, or will spot Drob enough to keep them both fresh.

Gardner

Gardner WILL be here for spring practices, after all. Certainly, that is more good news than bad, but I don't think it is the great news a lot of people think it is. And if it is that great, that means Forcier is either hurt, transferring, or not playing up to his abililty. Which isn't good news at all.

In other words, let's hope this is a non-story.

when it rains it pours and Wisconsin game prediction

Now we hear the rumors that Forcier is considering transferring and he's not starting this weekend. BrianGoBlog makes it sound like he's got some minor suspension thingy and will still play the majority of the game.
IMO Forcier has played pretty well this season. He's certainly made some mistakes. But I feel the majority have been "I can get away with these because I'm better than you" mistakes not "I don't know what I'm doing" or "I'll never be better than this" mistakes.
It would be a set back, both for the program and for RR, if Forcier were to transfer. As a Michigan fan I hope Gardiner is the equivalent of 2005 Vince Young or 2008 Colt McCoy, but I think that is a stretch for a true freshman.

As for the game Saturday, I hope I'm wrong, but:

Badgers 35
Wolverines 17

about jIM's long post

As you said, I think it shows M has likely has the potential to be in every game. Checking back on my July prediction I had M 1-1 at this point and still predicted 7 regular season wins.
The most disconcerting part of the game yesterday for me would be the near domination by the ND OLine. M did occasionally get some pressure, but ND was able to run with relative ease. I wouldn't have considered ND a great rushing team, but this could point to problems M might have going forward, especially with straight ahead running teams like MSU, Iowa, PSU and OSU...

That inability to consistently stop the run is why I would disagree with Weis the most. ND had great success rushing. Their back averaged nearly 7 yards a carry. So he was stopped on first down, he had just gotten 11 yards the carry before. Of course I also predicted M wouldn't get the ball back after that punt (probably because I expected them to run for first downs). And I also thought Minor was underutilized by M.

Another thing to consider on the Tate future is how much everyone thinks Devin Gardiner is better. Movalson was out at the elite 11 camp and he was very impressed. I don't know what this means for next season or beyond. Recruitniks might think yesterday's game would point to Gardiner going somewhere else. If Tate plays like he did yesterday, I'll take my chances.

I watched the press conferences on Mgoblue.com I really liked the Mathews quote about not really knowing what to do after scoring and getting reminded by the official "Be Smart".

Information on the tours of the premium seating Here

One thing I like about the Mike Kenn statement is maybe it will get him more respect from the M community. This guy was an amazing player here and he always gets passed over on all-time lists by people like Skrepanek. I could understand Jansen, Long and of course Dierdorf, but that is it no one else compares.

I don't think an objective observer could have watched the USC-OSU game and say it is another example of OSU failing in the big game. Yes they made mistakes, but so did USC. They fought them to the end. I don't know if anyone will be closer to beating the Trojans this year. And I doubt anyone else will keep them to 18 points.

About Tate, Big Ten and more

I really don't know what yesterday's game means regarding the rest of the season. It is clear M is much better than last year, but do we really know how much better after these two games? I don't. After last week's win, I was convinced M could compete in every game. I now think M can win every game. Of course, with all of the toss-up games, M could also lose 5-7 games (especially if there are injuries). At the beginning of the season I predicted 6-6 regular season. After WMU, I wasn't willing to change that prediction. I'm still cautious, but I am now thinking M will get at least 7 wins, but I'd be surprised if it wasn't 8. I hope I don't change my mind after the EMU and Indiana games.

As you probably agree, MSU and OSU losing is NOT good for M. I won't get into it other than to point out the words: REPUTATION; STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE; BCS; RECRUITING

Though it is hard not to jump on the bandwagon deifying Tate Forcier, I choose to remain a little more cautious. With that said, I can't help but think that, assuming M makes a bowl game this year, and barring injuries, we get to watch that kid play for Michigan fifty (50) more games. That pleases me.

And as far as Robinson goes, once he is capable of running a good spread option, he could be extremely dangerous. Again, 50 more games.

Minor is clearly the best back M has. Even with the depth, there is a big drop to (perfectly capable) Carlos Brown. Minor has a way of having an explosiveness that isn't exactly fast, but it is strong. He seems to have good field vision, too. Hopefully he can stay healthy for when the many tossup games come along.

I guess I buy Weiss' explanation of why he passed on that second to last drive. He was running the plays that had worked for him, and he was trying to win the game. I get that. If he had succeeded in getting one first down, he would have won. Of course, he didn't and he didn't. And that pleases me.

I really don't like the new MGOBLUE.com website. It is cumbersome. And now M is just like everyone else using CBS Sports All Access for the video. I've tried looking for things with All Access sites for other schools in the past and almost always have difficulty.

I heard Jamie Morris telling us that you can sign up for tours of the new suites on Fridays and Saturdays before games. I think the idea is for potential buyers, but he said the signup is online, so they have to know casual fans will sign up, too. i hvae looked in both the MGOBLUE and the Michiganstadiumproject.com (or whatever it is) and couldn't find anything. Do you know anything about this?

Without a doubt winning makes everone more supportive of RR and where the program is going. But, I must caution that there is a still a possibility (though I still think is it is slight) that M could lose schollies or have some other punishment due to actions of RR's staff. If this happens, I'm curious what support RR will have. Will Mike Kenn and Ricky Leach get on the air and say that cheating is the Michigan way? Let's hope we don't find out. The day after a great victory of ND, I'm not sure what I would do.

After the Spring game you mentioned that Forcier looked confident and you thought the mistakes he would make would be because he thought he could do more than he really could. I'm not going to say he didn't have those kind of mistakes the first two weeks, but he hasn't had many. And in the last drive, that was his opportunity to force something. And he didn't. Fifty (50) more games.