Big Ten Bowl Matchups (second edition)

Last year, I wrote a post to compare the Big Ten Teams and theirr bowl opponents to see what team should be expected to win, based on various indicators.  It was my attempt to head off the criticism of a bad bowl season for the conference, as I showed that based on the indicators a 2-5 would not be out of the question and 4-3 would be the best possible record.  Well, the conference ended up with 4-3.  Very impressive, really.

Well, this year, I decided to add some categories.  Here is a brief explanation of each:

-Conference Record:  Regular season conference record

-Position Conference Record:  This is the record each team would have if they lost to all teams above them in the standings and beat each team below them.  A tie would be 1/2 win and 1/2 loss.  In conferences with championship games, the winner of the championship game is 1st in the conference, the loser of the championship game is 2nd, and all other teams are listed based on conference record.

-Ranking:  This is the BCS ranking.  If neither team is ranked in the BCS, then it would be AP ranking, then USA Today ranking.  This would include receiving any votes.

-CFRC Ranking:  Self explanatory

-Head-to-Head / Common Opponents:  If the two teams played each other, what was the result?  If they didn't play each other, what was the result for any common opponents?  If the record against common opponents is the same, there are 'points' given based on point differential using this system (1-8 point difference = 1 point; 9-24 = 2 points; 25-48 = 3 points; 49+ = 4 points)

-Vegas Line: Self explanatory

So, here is what I found.

	OSU	Ark
Conf Record	7-1	6-2
Position Conf Record	9-1	8.5-2.5
Ranking (BCS)	6	8
CFRC	7	8
Common Opponents	x	x
Line	-3

	Wis	TCU
Conf Record	7-1	8-0
Position Conf Record	9-1	8-0
Ranking (BCS)	5	3
CFRC	9	3
Common Opponents	1-0 (+2)	1-0 (+3)
Line		-3

	MSU	Ala
Conf Record	7-1	5-3
Position Conf Record	9-1	7-4
Ranking (BCS)	9	16
CFRC	18	10
Common Opponents	1-0 (+1)	1-0 (+2)
Line		-10.5

	Iowa	Mo
Conf Record	4-4	6-2
Position Conf Record	7-3	8-3
Ranking (BCS)	x	12
CFRC	30	11
Common Opponents	1-0 (+2)	1-0 (+2)
Line		-1

	M	MSU
Conf Record	3-5	4-4
Position Conf Record	3.5-6.5	5.5-5.5
Ranking (BCS)	x	21
CFRC	43	23
Common Opponents	x	x
Line		-6

	PSU	FL
Conf Record	4-4	4-4
Position Conf Record	6-4	5.5-5.5
Ranking	x	x
CFRC	44	29
Common Opponents	0-1 (-2)	0-1 (-3)
Line		-7

	IL	Bay
Conf Record	4-4	4-4
Position Conf Record	6-4	6-5
Ranking (BCS)	x	x
CFRC	51	38
Common Opponents	x	x
Line		-1.5

	NU	TxTech
Conf Record	3-5	3-5
Position Conf Record	3.5-6.5	4-7
Ranking (BCS)	x	x
CFRC	63	37
Common Opponents	x	x
Line		-9.5

So...

Based on conference records, The Big Ten should go 2-3-3

Based on position conference records, The Big Ten should go 4-4

Based on rankings, The Big Ten should go 2-3-3

Based on CFRC rankings, The Big Ten should go 1-7

Based on Head-to-Head/Common Opponent, The Big Ten should go 1-2-5

Based on the line, The Big Ten should go 1-7

The average of the above is 2.75 wins, making a 3-5 record a good one.  

I think the most important category is the position conference records.  This minimizes the effects of a tie on the top of the conference (is MSU's 9-1 equivalent to 9-1 in another conference, for instance?) and accounts for the difference in conference sizes (4th place in a 12 team conference is not the same as 4th place in an 8 team conference, for instance).  In this category, 4-4 will be expected.  And that is certainly something to hope for, but the other categories are all below that, and some of them are probaby actually better predictors of what is going to happen.  And the Big Ten will be criticzed for being bad.  And the criticism appears to be somewhat valid if it doesn't pull out at least 3 wins. 

Big ten ladder

If I understand jiMpossible's ladder rules correctly I think the current Big Ten ladder is:

Iowa-MSU-Wisconsin
OSU
Illinois-Michigan-Penn St
Purdue
Northwestern
Indiana-Minnesota

Based on the ladder this weeks results should be:

Michigan over Purdue (PU victory would put the two teams into their own tier)
Iowa over N'western (NU victory would cause a lot of work)
Wisconsin over Indiana (IU win would cause a lot of work)
Illinois over Minnesota (Minn would cause of lot of work)
Ohio State over Penn St (PSU win would move OSU into the Ill/UM/PSU tier)

Will a second Big Ten team make the BCS?

The ESPN & CBS "experts" have the BCS Bowls taking a second Big Ten team. I think Oklahoma's loss to Texas A&M helps, but it is still far from guaranteed.

If we assume Oregon and Auburn win out - they're in the BCS Championship game. Other automatic qualifiers are the ACC team that no one wants (for this post we'll consider this Virginia Tech), the Big East team that no one wants (Pitt?), likely Nebraska and MSU/Wisconsin/Iowa/OSU. Assuming that TCU and Boise also win out, they're guaranteed spots.

So 8 of the 10 spots are spoken for that leaves 2 spots for the 3 Big Ten teams that aren't in the Rose Bowl, LSU/Alabama and Stanford.

I would guess Auburn would move ahead of Oregon in the polls - conference championship game + win over Alabama - so the Sugar Bowl gets the first pick after other teams are assigned. But I think the same thing would happen if Oregon is still #1.

Here are the Bowls before the selections start:
BCS - Auburn vs Oregon
Sugar - At-large 1 vs At-large 5
Rose - Big Ten Champ vs At-large 2
Orange - Va Tech vs At-large 3
Fiesta - Nebraska vs. At-large 4

I would see it going like this: Sugar Bowl wants an SEC school if they can get one. One loss LSU meets that bill. Rose Bowl loves the Big-Ten PAC ten match-up, so they take 1 loss Stanford. You'd end up with something like:

BCS - Auburn vs Oregon
Sugar - LSU vs Pitt
Rose - Big Ten Champ vs Stanford
Orange - Va Tech vs TCU
Fiesta - Nebraska vs. Boise St

The Big Ten runners up need one of the following:

• Auburn loss before conference championship game - moves one of the non-aq schools to the championship game and gives the Orange Bowl 2nd choice
  
• Oregon loss - also would move the Orange bowl to 2nd pick, plus there is no way the Rose Bowl would select a team to set up a Big Ten conference game
  
• Boise or TCU loss - 1 loss Big Ten team will trump 1 loss non-AQ
• LSU loss - 2 loss LSU likely doesn't go in favor of 1 loss Big Ten

Also - does which Big Ten team is available matter? OSU and Wisconsin are huge travelers. Iowa is too, but with 2 losses already, it is tough seeing them take a spot over a 1 loss AQ conference school. I would think MSU would travel well to a big bowl since they haven't been a in a long time. The Big Ten (monetarily) might be best served if MSU is the Rose Bowl team.

Big Ten Ladder

MSU (A loss to Iowa would put a 3 team group on the top rung)
Wisconsin
OSU - Iowa
Illinois - Purdue - Michigan (interesting that two of M's remaining opponents are on the same rung)
PSU -Northwestern - Indiana
Minnesota

Prediction for M using the ladder:
@ PSU - Win
Ill - Win
@ PU - Loss
Wis-Loss
@OSU-Loss
2-3
Overall Record 7-5, conference 3-5

If this week's games end up as predicted by Vegas, the ladder would look like this (I think):

MSU - Wisconsin - Iowa

OSU

Illinois  - Michigan 

Purdue  - PSU

Northwestern 

Minnesota -Indiana

That would change the prediction to 8-4, 4-4

espn bowl predictions week 6

Full ESPN picks are in.

Illinois - Texas (MS) or Dallas FC (AA)
Indiana - none (Both)
Iowa - Cap One (Both)
Michigan - Gator (Both)
MSU - Rose (MS) or Outback (AA)
Minnesota - none
Northwestern - Insight (MS) or Texas (AA)
OSU - BCS champ game (Both)
PSU - Dallas FC (MS) or Little Caesar's (AA)
Purdue - Little Caesar's (MS) or none (AA)
Wisconsin - Outback (MS) or Insight (AA)

Here's the predicted order of finish:

MS	AA
OSU	OSU
MSU	Iowa
Iowa	MSU
Wisconsin	Michigan
Michigan	Wisconsin
N'western	Illinois
Penn St	N'Western
Illinois	Penn St
Purdue

Alabama's loss is OSU's gain as they're back in both championship games. MSU gets a Rose Bowl bid from Schlabach, Adelson gives a second BCS bid to the SEC (Auburn) over the Big1T1en.

It would appear the "experts see either 2 or 3 losses on M's schedule. Would you take that right now?

espn bowl predictions week 5

ESPN Bowl predictions

Illinois - Little Caesars (MS) or none (AA)
Indiana - Dallas FC (MS) or none (AA)
Iowa - Orange(MS) or Cap One (AA)
Michigan - Cap One (MS) or Gator (AA)
MSU - Outback (Both)
Minnesota - none
Northwestern - Insight (MS) or Dallas FC (AA)
OSU - Rose (MS) or BCS champ game (AA)
PSU - Texas (Both)
Purdue - none
Wisconsin - Gator (MS) or Insight (AA)


Predicted order of finish

MS	AA
OSU	OSU
Iowa	Iowa
Michigan	MSU
MSU	Michigan
Wisconsin	Wisconsin
Northwestern	PSU
PSU	Northwestern
Indiana
Illinois

This is the first time OSU has been out of the BCS Championship game. MS has Alabama v.Oregon, while AA had OSU v. Boise St. While MS apparently knocked the Buckeyes for their close game with Illinois, he also included Illinois in the Bowl picture.

The M-MSU game should decide which school is 3rd and which isn't - at least.

jiM's Big Ten Picks based on IPad

Big Ten picks

So we've already picked the Michigan - Indiana game for this week. I figured since the conference games are starting in earnest this weekend, I'd pick all the games.

I'll take Northwestern big over Minnesota 38-7
OSU bigger over Illinois 49-0
Iowa relatively close over Penn St. 23-14
The best game of the day will be Wisconsin @ Michigan State. As much as I'd like to have a match-up of undefeateds next weekend in Ann Arbor, I think the Badgers will be able to take down the Spartans, 27-24.

I think Purdue will tie Bye, 0-0

espn bowl predictions week 4

The ESPN bowl predictions are up

Illinois - None
Indiana - Dallas FC (MS) or none (AA)
Iowa - Outback (MS) or Cap One (AA)
Michigan - Cap One (MS) or Gator (AA)
MSU - Insight (MS) or Texas (AA)
Minnesota - none
Northwestern - Texas (MS) or Dallas FC (AA)
OSU - BCS champ game (both)
PSU - Gator (MS) or Insight (AA)
Purdue - none
Wisconsin - Sugar (MS) or Outback (AA)

making the predicted order of finish:

MS	AA
OSU	OSU
Wisconsin	Iowa
Michigan	Wisconsin
Iowa	Michigan
PSU	PSU
MSU	MSU
N'Western	N'Western
Indiana

I think that shuffles things up a bit probably making it something like:

OSU>>>>>> Iowa/Michigan/Wisconsin>>PSU>MSU>N'western>>>Indiana

espn bowl predictions week 3

ESPN has updated their bowl predictions.

Here are the Big Ten predictions:
Illinois - None
Indiana - Little Caesars (MS) or None
Iowa - Capital One (both)
Michigan - Gator (Both)
MSU - Outback (MS) or Texas (AA)
Minnesota - None
Northwestern - Texas (MS) or Little Caesars(AA)
Ohio State - BCS Championship game (both)
Penn State - Insight (Both)
Purdue - Dallas FC (Both)
Wisconsin - Orange (MS) or Outback (AA)

This produces a predicted order of finish of:

MS	AA
OSU	OSU
Wisconsin	Iowa
Iowa	Wisconsin
MSU	Michigan
Michigan	Penn St
Penn St	MSU
N'western	Purdue
Purdue	N'Western
Indiana

I think that still matches up to the generally universal belief that the conference is:

OSU>>>>>Iowa/Wisconsin>>>M/MSU/PSU>P/N>Ind>>>Ill/Minn

M to the Gator Bowl would be great, my sister Kathy lives in Jax!!!

espn bowl predictions week 2

ESPN has already updated their bowl predictions

Illinois - None
Indiana - Dallas FC (MS) or None
Iowa - Orange (MS) or Rose (AA)
Michigan - Outback (MS) or Insight (AA)
MSU - Insight (MS) or Texas (AA)
Minnesota - None
Northwestern - Texas (MS) or Gator (AA)
Ohio State - BCS Championship game (both)
Penn State - Gator (MS) or Outback (AA)
Purdue - Little Caesars (MS) or Dallas FC (AA)
Wisconsin - Cap One (both)

Iowa is back to a double BCS bid
PSU's loss & M's win makes Schlabach think the Wolverines might finish 4th not the Nittany Lions.
other than that some minor shuffling

Using these for the predicted ranking:

MS AA
OSU OSU
Iowa Iowa
Wisconsin Wisconsin
MICHIGAN PSU
PSU Northwestern
MSU MICHIGAN
Northwestern MSU
Indiana Purdue
Purdue No bowls for Ill/Ind/Minn
No bowls for Ill/Minn

espn Bowl predictions - week 1

Week one predictions from ESPN are already in.

Illinois - None
Indiana - None
Iowa - Cap One (MS) or Sugar (AA)
Michigan - Insight (both)
MSU - Texas Bowl (both)
Minnesota - None
Northwestern - Dallas FC (MS) or Gator (AA)
OSU - BCS championship game (both)
PSU - Gator (MS) or Outback (AA)
Purdue - Little Cesar's (MS) or Dallas FC (AA)
Wisconsin - Outback (MS) or Cap One (AA)

No change - Illinois; Minnesota; OSU
For the rest - as I said I haven;t been able to figure out the pattern after the Outback. But Iowa did lose half a BCS bid, which drops everyone down in Schlabach's prediction. Including knocking Indiana out of a bowl all together.

Predicted standings:
OSU
Iowa
Wisconsin
PSU
...

espn Bowl predictions - preseason (oops)

Forgot until now to check on the espn experts bowl predictions for Michigan and the rest of the Big1T1en.

They have a new "expert" this year, Andrea Adelson replaces Bruce Feldman; Mark Schlabach remains.

I'll highlight their Big Ten picks:

Illinois - No bowl
Indiana - Schlabach has the Hoosiers in the Little Ceasars Bowl - nothing for Adelson
Iowa - both in the Rose Bowl
Michigan - Texas Bowl (MS) or Dallas Football Classic (AA)
MSU - Gator (MS) or Texas Bowl (AA)
Minnesota - Nothing
Northwestern - Insight (MS) or Gator (AA)
OSU - both in the BCS championship game
PSU - Both in Outback
Purdue - Dallas (MS) or Insight (AA)
Wisconsin - Cap One for both

So it would appear both had the final standings:
OSU
Iowa
Wisconsin
PSU
then it varies - I'm not sure which bowls get which teams after that anyway...

We'll see if anything changes after the first week. I would guess M might have improved in their minds. Purdue's loss to ND was probably expected (MS had them in the Orange Bowl!) so that shouldn't have dropped them too much, but I bet it does...
Not sure about Northwestern's close victory over Vandy - I predict little change for them.

Sad News about Boilermaker Bob

Looks like Purdue is going to be changing the image of Boilermaker Bob soon... This is just another bit of insight I've gained from the Uniwatch Blog

stealing your Big1T1en expansion plan?

Hey are you bklein09 on mgoblog? This poster is suggesting creating divisions based on the previous season's results in the conference if they add a 12th team. I think your plan based the divisions on more than one season, but it is pretty close

Big Ten Bowl Matchups

So, we come to the time of the year that the Big T1e1n shows how bad it is. I decided to see if that is really true and compare where the B10 teams rank in their conference and how their opponents rank in theirs. I basically just took conference records as the indicator. For teams with conference championship games, I took the winner of the championship game as #1, the loser as #2

#1 OSU v Pac Ten #1 Oregon
tie

#2-3 PSU v SEC #3 LSU.
slight edge Big Ten

#2-3 IA v ACC #1 Ga Tech
opponent

#4-5 Wis v ACC #4-5 Miami
tie

#4-5 NU v SEC #7-8-9-10-11 Auburn
Big Ten

#6-7 MSU v Big Twelve #4-5
opponent

#8 MN v Big Twelve #8-9
slight edge Big Ten

I came up with 3-2-2, with two of the wins being ever so slight. That means a 4-3 would be a good showing, 2-5 not really surprising. Anything worse would be sad.

Now based on CFRC rankings (which doesn't necessarily prove how bad the B10 isn't, but it should stop everyone from being surprised when the B10 doesn't fare well)

#9 OSU v 6 Ore
opponent

#12 PSU v #11 LSU
opponent

#14 Iowa v #10 Ga Tech
opponent

#29 Wis v #13 Miami
opponent

#57 NU v #36 Aub
opponent

#60 MSU v #26 Tx Tech
opponent

#62 MN v #71 Iowa State
Big Ten

Yes, that's 1-6

As far as the current Vegas odds go, other than PSU being favored over LSU, they go along with cfrc rankings, making a 2-7 record for the Big Ten.

To summarize, even if the Big Ten does what it is supposed to do based on position within relative conference, it is likely the rep of the Big Ten will not change. Most importantly, of course, the teams at the top need to pull off some wins. We really need the conference to start improving in the eyes of the pollsters so the 11-1 2011 Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team can go to the BCS Championship game.

ESPN Bowl Predictions Vol 11

Well, ESPN has caught on to Michigan's plight. Both experts have dropped M off their bowl predictions.

Week	Schlabach	Feldman
Pre	Champs	PapaJohns
1	Alamo	Alamo
2	Outback	Outback
3	Cap One	Outback
4	Outback	Outback
5	Champs	Champs
6	Alamo	Champs
7	Champs	Champs
8	Insight	Champs
9	Pizza	Champs
10	None	None

And the overall conference rankings are:

Place	Schlabach	Change	Feldman	Change
1	OSU	+2	OSU	+2
2	Iowa	-1	Iowa	-1
3	PSU	-1	PSU	-1
4	Wisconsin	0	Minnesota	+3
5	Minnesota	+1	MSU	+1
6	Northwestern	+1	Wisconsin	-2
7	MSU	-2	Northwestern	+2

Schlabach doesn't even have the Big Ten filling all its openings since he has Iowa also making a BCS bowl. They again both have Texas in the BCS championship game with Schlabach picking Alabama and Fedlman taking Florida as their opponent.

ESPN Bowl Predictions Vol 9

M has a new bowl option, for the first time they've been picked for the Insight Bowl against Kansas. Feldman still has M facing off with Clemson in the Champs. With the way M looked on Saturday, I think they'd be happy to accept either bowl right now.

Week	Schlabach	Feldman
Pre	Champs	PapaJohns.com
1	Alamo	Alamo
2	Outback	Outback
3	Cap One	Outback
4	Outback	Outback
5	Champs	Champs
6	Alamo	Champs
7	Champs	Champs
8	Insight	Champs

Not too much changed in the overall Big1T1en predictions. just a couple changes at the bottom of the conference. Schlabach did drop PSU from the BCS bowl ranks - apparently beating M 35-10 on the road wasn't as impressive as TCU's win in his opinion.

Place	Schlabach	Change	Feldman	Change
1	Iowa	0	Iowa	0
2	PSU	0	PSU	0
3	OSU	0	OSU	0
4	MSU	+1	Wisconsin	0
5	Wisconsin	-1	MSU	0
6	Michigan	0	Michigan	0
7	Northwestern	+1	Minnesota	0
8			Northwestern	+1
9			Indiana	-1

Both have Texas in the BCS Championship game Schlabach has them facing Bama, Feldman has Florida.

ESPN Bowl Predictions Vol 8

Latest ESPN bowl predictions here
M falls to the Champs sports bowl on both predictions:

Week	Schlabach	Feldman
Pre	Champs	PapaJohns.com
1	Alamo	Alamo
2	Outback	Outback
3	Cap One	Outback
4	Outback	Outback
5	Champs	Champs
6	Alamo	Champs
7	Champs	Champs

Both have M facing off with Clemson.

The overall predicted standings are:

Place	Schlabach	Change	Feldman	Change
1	Iowa	0	Iowa	0
2	Penn St	+1	Penn St	+2
3	OSU	-1	OSU	-1
4	Wisconsin	0	Wisconsin	-1
5	MSU	+2	MSU	+2
6	Michigan	-1	Michigan	-1
7	Minnesota	-1	Minnesota	-1
8	Northwestern	0	Indiana	+1?
9			Northwestern	-1

In this case both have PSU making it to a BCS bowl. Hopefully M can put an end to that idea Saturday afternoon...

Big Ten Tree after an upset

As might be expected, the PU upset of OSU really readjusted the Big Ten tree. Most significantly to all of the authors here is that M falls below the giant circle that was created. Here it is:

IA
PSU
OSU-WI-MN-MSU-NU-PU
MI
IN
IL

Using this to predict the remaining games, M would finish 6-6, beating only IL.

Next week's games are IL-PU, IN-NU, MN-OSU, PSU-MI, IA-MSU. If IL, IN or M win, it will bring M into the big circle. If MSU beats IA and IL beats PU, then all 11 teams are in the circle. At that point, I think all teams are officially 0-0 and the season starts anew.