OSU prediction based on it being about damn time

This is a picture of my mother and my Uncle Jim at the 1939 Michigan - Ohio State game. Michigan won that game 21-14 in Ann Arbor. Sometimes it feels like M hasn't won since. Then I remember...

My first OSU game was Jim Harbaugh's 1985 team. Michigan was the better team all day, but the Buckeyes got close late and them Harbaugh to Kolesar put it away. We went down on the field after the game, the north goal post came down and jiMpossible made an effort to grab the flag st the top of one of the uprights. A cop pounded on the upright with a billy club and that dispersed the crowd somewhat.

jiMpossible was Gilligan in the MMB halftime show for the 1986 Harbaugh guarantee game. Bo knew they would miss the field goal because it was his turn.

1991, of course belonged to Desmond Howard.

1993 was the first in a series of M ruining OSU's season, and the last time OSU was shutout.

1995 was the Biakabutuka-ing

1997 was Charles Woodson channeling Desmond 

1998 was my only trip to Columbus to watch the game. We sat in the first row - in bleachers right on the track - this was before they lowered the field. Tom Brady tried to keep them in the game, but the offensive line got no push and Michigan had negative rushing yards for the day.

In 2000 jiMpossible and I watched Drew Henson's naked bootleg ice the game from the TV in my apartment. M hasn't won in Columbus since (and he hasn't watched a game on TV with me since).
That brought Tressel and everything changed.

M won the 100th game between the two schools and my dad was on the field as legends returned to line the tunnel for the team touching the Go Blue Banner.

The 2005 game is when my then 83 year old father was knocked over by a BDBitL cymbal player.

M won again in 2011 with a great effort from Denard Robinson, but a poor pass from Braxton Miller missed a wide open receiver or that game too might have ended in a loss.

There were times this season when I was convinced Michigan had the better team. OSU has had several closer-than-expected games, But these past couple weeks Michigan's offense has been very disappointing. My head says the Buckeyes will win at home and probably make the playoffs. My heart says it's about damn time.

M 17
O 14

Ohio State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 194-58-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I have attended, unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 9-7 vs. Ohio State
M is 17-8 vs. schools from Ohio
M is 11-11 vs. schools with non animal or human mascots
M is 127-42-1 in conference games
M is 163-43-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 76-20-1 in noon games
M is 3-1 after Thanksgiving
M is 9-3 when ranked 12
M is 4-2 vs. teams ranked 8
M is 19-14 vs. teams ranked in the top 10
M is 28-20 vs. teams with a better ranking
M is 17-7 in the 7th game I have attended in a season
M is 4-1 in their head coach's 7th attended game
M is 7-3 when a victory vs. the opponent would be my 10th attended victory over them
M is 0-1 when a loss vs. the opponent would be my 8th attended loss against them
M is 2-1 when facing an opponent for the 17th time
M is 22-12 vs. teams with head coach shares the first name of a Pope

M has played 3 teams 100 times OSU, MSU and Minnesota. In the first 100 games vs. these schools, M had an overall record of  197-89-14. In the games vs. these teams since their 100ths games, M is 3-18. They have however won one-in-a-row.

In both January and September, I counted this game in the loss column. I'm afraid OSU will play 180 degrees differently than they did against MSU. But then again, HARBAUGH.

It's easy when you look at all the numbers,

M 27
OSU 17

Oregon State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 189-57-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 34-5 in the first attended games of the season

M is 1-0 vs. Oregon State

M is 65-15 vs. non-conference opponents

M is 8-5 vs. Pac-10/12 schools (4 straight losses)

M is 159-42-1 in Michigan Stadium

M is 109-21 vs. schools with animal nicknames

M is 2-3 vs. teams with head coaches who previously were a head coach in the Big10/Ten but I never saw them coach that school

M is 12-3 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team (2 straight losses)

M is 19-3-1 with #15 starting as their quarterback

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 34

Oregon St 7

Maryland Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 189-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 124-41-1 in conference games
M is 159-41-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 versus Maryland

The last time I saw M play Maryland was in 1990. this got me thinking what is the longest gap, game-wise, I've gone seeing M play a particular team. 

I have seen 194 Michigan games since they last played Maryland (145-48-1). The next longest gaps are USC (110 from the 1988 Rose Bowl to the 2004 Rose Bowl); Alabama (105 from the 2000 Orange Bowl to the 2012 game in Dallas); San Diego St (63 from 2004 to the 2011 match-up) and Utah (50 from 2000 through 2008).

There are teams with current longer streaks than Maryland, including Oregon St, Arizona St, Long Beach St, Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, and UCLA.

In conference games Penn State and Illinois both had 43 game runs. Iowa went 40 games. Wisconsin is the active leader with 37 games and counting.

M is 27-10-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 6-6 in the 9th game of the season
M is 32-5 versus teams with Nicknames of  egg laying animals
M is 15-4 against teams coached by someone I've seen coach a different team against Michigan
M is 164-47-1 without Frank Clark on the roster
 M is 13-2 when they'll be lead by Jim Harbaugh in their next game

It's easy when you add it all together

M 24
MD 17

Michigan coaching situation - What the heck is going on?

I guess the easy answer is David Brandon was telling the truth all along. He really was going to assess the program at the end of the season, and that's what he's doing, common sense be damned. In the business world there is no regular season, no signing season etc.

In college football, it seems to be a MAJOR disadvantage (like set back the program even further) to fire your coach without having someone already in mind this late in the season.

I was hoping all along that Brandon had a secret deal with Harbaugh to come in after the bowls were over. It is pretty clear that isn't the case. Maybe he thought he could get JH, maybe he thought M would do better in the bowl game and he could reasonably keep RR. But none of those things seem to be happening.

Brady Hoke could have been hired the day after the OSU debacle. That would have made the bowl prep more useful, would have been a more consistent face for recruiting. Instead, it looks like he's a desperation hire in January, after M's biggest recruits have already said they're looking elsewhere. Hoke may be the right choice, but choosing him means M wasted 5-6 weeks with RR still on the job.

It will be difficult for Hoke to reconcile the split fanbase. Who's really excited about this choice? I don't think he really qualifies as a "Michigan Man," does he? A position coach for 8 seasons, is that really all it takes? Would Billy Harris have been an option when Mo was fired? I don't think anyone would have been happy with that and he played for Michigan.

Now Hoke has had some success as a head coach. One good season at Ball State and San Diego State each, but his overall record is still only 47-50. I guess that is better than Moeller's at Illinois, but does anyone think Hoke is half the coach Moeller was?

I've said before my biggest fear in a coaching change situation would be no one wanting the Michigan job, further showing how much Michigan has fallen from relevancy. I don't think having Brady Hoke want the job relieves any of those fears.

I read in Craig Ross's book that when the basketball team fired Steve Fisher, Johnny Orr said he would be the interim coach for a season (I think he even said for free!) allowing the AD to take time to find the right guy. Instead they went head first into the Brian Ellerbe era, mostly because there was no one else. I don't want Hoke to be equivalent to Ellerbe. Maybe, Gary Moeller, Lloyd Carr or even Jerry Hanlon could step in in this situation?

Harbaugh To Miss Banquet

I think it is very sad that Jim Harbaugh isn't going to attend the banquet this week honoring the 1985 team.  

Banquets sometimes have really good food, and I bet he likes good food.

RR v Harbaugh: Letting History Predict The Future

Though I don't believe RR will be fired at the end of the season, I keep hearing that if he is the program will take a huge step backward. I've never really believed this, so I decided to use historical numbers (very limited) and see what we can predict using the past. 

The data is very limited, of course, but it is what it is. I'm only using I-A numbers because a) It doesn't take as long and b) using div II for RR and I-AA for Jim Harbaugh weakens the argument (but not by too much)

RR has had two new HC jobs in I-A

-At WVU, he took a 7-5 team and made them 3-8, a winning % decrease of .208

-At M, he took a 9-4 team, and made them 3-9, a winning % decrease of .442

So, RRs average is to decrease a team's winning % by .325 (nearly 4 games in a 12 game season).

It is not surprising people are afraid of what a change could bring. RR has scared us.  

Let's take a look at what has happened with Harbaugh:

-At Stanford, he took a 1-11 team and made them 4-8, an increase of .242.

So, Harbaugh's average in his first season is to improve the team by .242 (just under 3 games in a 12 game season).

Adjusting for a 13 game season, and assuming a loss to OSU next week, but a win in the bowl, hiring Harbaugh would produce about a 11-2 season next year.

Another thing you have to consider, of course, is what happens to RR teams after he leaves.

-At WVU, in his last season they went 11-2 (I'm giving him credit for the bowl victory, even though he wasn't officially there when WVU beat ASU 48-28).  The next season, WVU went 9-4, a decrease of .153 (or 2 games).

If M fires RR and hires any random coach, and assuming the w/l as above, you can expect a 6-7 season next year.  

So 11-2 with Harbaugh, 6-7 with RR leaving, it gives us an average of 9-4-ish

But won't RR get that anyhow? Well, let's see how RR does between season 3 and 4 historically.

-At WVU, he went from 8-5 his 3rd season, to 8-4 his 4th season. That increase of .051 is worth about 2/3 of a game in a 13 game schedule. So if we keep RR, making the w/l assumptions above, M would go 9-4.  It is  a push for next year.

Now, what about the future.  How does Harbaugh do from season 1 to 2, and how does RR do from season 4 to 5.

For RR, season 4 to 5 is an increase from 8-4 to 11-1, that increase of .25 puts M at 12-1 in 2012.  I didn't put in a Big Ten Championship game, but it definitely could be possible.  BCS Bowl, too

For Harbaugh, season 1 to 2 is an increase from 4-8 to 5-7,  that increase of .083 put M at 10-3 in 2012

How about from season 5 to 6 for RR and 2-3 for Harbaugh

-RR 11-2 to 10-2, -.128 would put M between 9 and 10 wins.

-Harbaugh 5-7 to 8-5, .198 would put M between 12 and 13 wins in 2013.  Still using 13 game season, possible National Championship game, it looks like

So, it looks like M has the best shot at first getting a BCS bowl and maybe a conference championship in 2012 if RR is kept.  

But, the best shot at a National Championship is in 2013 if he is replaced by Harbaugh. 

I really expected it to look better for hiring Harbaugh.  Either way, I guess we are heading toward a BCS Bowl game in the next few years.  

Big Ten Bowl Matchups

So, we come to the time of the year that the Big T1e1n shows how bad it is. I decided to see if that is really true and compare where the B10 teams rank in their conference and how their opponents rank in theirs. I basically just took conference records as the indicator. For teams with conference championship games, I took the winner of the championship game as #1, the loser as #2

#1 OSU v Pac Ten #1 Oregon
tie

#2-3 PSU v SEC #3 LSU.
slight edge Big Ten

#2-3 IA v ACC #1 Ga Tech
opponent

#4-5 Wis v ACC #4-5 Miami
tie

#4-5 NU v SEC #7-8-9-10-11 Auburn
Big Ten

#6-7 MSU v Big Twelve #4-5
opponent

#8 MN v Big Twelve #8-9
slight edge Big Ten

I came up with 3-2-2, with two of the wins being ever so slight. That means a 4-3 would be a good showing, 2-5 not really surprising. Anything worse would be sad.

Now based on CFRC rankings (which doesn't necessarily prove how bad the B10 isn't, but it should stop everyone from being surprised when the B10 doesn't fare well)

#9 OSU v 6 Ore
opponent

#12 PSU v #11 LSU
opponent

#14 Iowa v #10 Ga Tech
opponent

#29 Wis v #13 Miami
opponent

#57 NU v #36 Aub
opponent

#60 MSU v #26 Tx Tech
opponent

#62 MN v #71 Iowa State
Big Ten

Yes, that's 1-6

As far as the current Vegas odds go, other than PSU being favored over LSU, they go along with cfrc rankings, making a 2-7 record for the Big Ten.

To summarize, even if the Big Ten does what it is supposed to do based on position within relative conference, it is likely the rep of the Big Ten will not change. Most importantly, of course, the teams at the top need to pull off some wins. We really need the conference to start improving in the eyes of the pollsters so the 11-1 2011 Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team can go to the BCS Championship game.

Jamie Morris on Harbaugh

From MVictors a link to Jamie Morris being interviewed on a Columbus station. He seems to be taking back a lot of the things he said about Harbaugh. And not really saying RR will still be here with a loss to OSU.

That is really surprising to me. I can't help but read it as him waffling because of the likelihood of Harbaugh coming here soon...