Pro-RR confusion

One of the arguments the anti-RR crowd uses is that in 2008 RR did not fit his system around the players he had, but rather tried to fit the players into his system.  Currently, the pro-RRers are saying that isn't true.

However, I remember very well in 2008 there were a lot of arguments about whether he should change his system or whether he should continue to implement it his way so it would help the overall transition in the long run.  And, back then, the pro-RR group was all for doing it the way RR was doing it, which was to have Steven Threet try to run the same offense that DRob is running today (read this sentence a few more times and let it settle in.  then, try not to laugh or cry).  Briangoblog had some long posts with this argument.  Heck, even RR in the past 2 years, when things were looking bad (like during a pre-bowl interview this year) brings up the issue of taking time for the transition into his system.  He doesn't say something like "It takes time to transition into my system because we are still running other kinds of offenses until we have all the correct personnel".  He just says it takes awhile to transition.

Why am I mentioning this now?  Because, even today, the day after the worse bowl loss in the history of University of Michigan football, I am reading, in blogs/fan fora, etc. that in 2008, RR didn't just try to implement his system, regardless of the personnel he had.  I'm guessing they are using the talent argument again, which may have some validity for a bad season that year.  But 3-9 came about because RR only cared about implementing his offense without regard to personnel.


Now that is has been said in bold/purple/underlined/highlighted in yellow, it is officially the truth.

Points

At one time in the season, M had outscored the opponents by 80 points.  The final outcome is M -32 (if my math is correct).

I don't know if I have mentioned this yet, but I'm thinking Brandon should fire RR and hire anyone who has ever read the word "football".

RR

I think I've said that  if Brandon doesn't have a good replacement for RR, we should keep him for another year, that we shouldn't just fire him and hire "some guy" to replace him.

I am changing my mind.  Fire him!  Replacement with 'anyone'.  I don't care who.  Anyone that has ever coached football.  No, anyone that has ever watched football.  Ever.

OSU, NCAA and ugh!

How could you not know that selling a Big Ten Championship ring or a jersey is OK?  Is that something that they have seen others do, so they thought it was normal?  Really?

With the delayed suspension, the NCAA does it again.  I really wish the NCAA wouldn't be so transparent with regards to their existence as a money-grabbing organization.  

For those who are saying the rules that the OSU players broke show that players should be paid, I have to ask one question:  WHY IS IT A RIGHT TO GET A TATOO?!?!?!?!

So, I caught portions of College Football Live on ESPNU (I think) a couple days the past week and they were talking about Maryland possibly hiring Mike Leach.  With all of the discussion about how great a coach he is and how he would be a good fit with the Terps, nothing was mentioned about why he is not coaching Texas Tech anymore.  I'm not saying he did anything wrong, because I have no idea, but how can that not be part of the discussion?  ESPN is as bad as the NCAA.  

I have a lot of ideas of this whole Michigan Man issue regarding RR, but it would be a very long post.  Nobody wants to read that.  But, for those who say Bo wasn't a Michigan Man when he came here, I have two responses:  1) The high standards (on and off the field) may or may not have been part of the culture at M when Bo was hired, but M alums and the uni, as far as what I know, embrace what Bo stood for.  If he wasn't a fit for the culture at the U, then he certainly helped to create the culture as we know as The University of Michigan.  2) RR did not, and has not, embraced the U traditions/culture.  He came in knowing it was a great football job.  But, anyone who cares about M doesn't care that it is a great football job.  We care that it is a great place to be.  This is not an SEC job, where you win and make alums happy.  Winning is only part of it.  Being a good Michigan Man is the other. 

I saw a story on WBKB-TV (channel 11, Alpena) about the MSU-Alabama bowl game and they had three quick soundbites from Alabama players talking about the MSU team.  All three said that MSU is like an SEC team.  It was clear they were doing this as if to say it as a compliment.  I really want the Big Ten to beat the SEC this year . Ugh

What Meyer's retirement could mean for Michigan

I found this post from the O Zone through a Tweet from Jamie Morris (gutsy little guy). Although part of it talks about OSU recruiting battles with Florida, the middle section points out how Meyer's retirement could affect RR's job situation.

General opinion has Mississippi State's coach Dan Mullen as one of, if not the, leading candidate for the Florida job. O Zone makes the assumption that this uncertainty at MSU could help M win the Gator Bowl and potentially force Brandon to keep RR and "...lose their one shot at the most perfect candidate they're ever going to find in Jim Harbaugh..."

I think there are two possible explanations for Brandon's RR strategy. Either he really hasn't made up his mind or he's definitely getting rid of RR but has some alternative reason for keeping him for now - letting him coach the bowl game, letting his choice coach his bowl game, etc.

The O Zone's theory only affects the first of these options. I do agree that this might be the perfect opportunity to get Harbaugh, but I'm not convinced that beating Mississippi State would be enough to keep RR if Brandon hasn't decided.

RR v Harbaugh: Letting History Predict The Future

Though I don't believe RR will be fired at the end of the season, I keep hearing that if he is the program will take a huge step backward. I've never really believed this, so I decided to use historical numbers (very limited) and see what we can predict using the past. 

The data is very limited, of course, but it is what it is. I'm only using I-A numbers because a) It doesn't take as long and b) using div II for RR and I-AA for Jim Harbaugh weakens the argument (but not by too much)

RR has had two new HC jobs in I-A

-At WVU, he took a 7-5 team and made them 3-8, a winning % decrease of .208

-At M, he took a 9-4 team, and made them 3-9, a winning % decrease of .442

So, RRs average is to decrease a team's winning % by .325 (nearly 4 games in a 12 game season).

It is not surprising people are afraid of what a change could bring. RR has scared us.  

Let's take a look at what has happened with Harbaugh:

-At Stanford, he took a 1-11 team and made them 4-8, an increase of .242.

So, Harbaugh's average in his first season is to improve the team by .242 (just under 3 games in a 12 game season).

Adjusting for a 13 game season, and assuming a loss to OSU next week, but a win in the bowl, hiring Harbaugh would produce about a 11-2 season next year.

Another thing you have to consider, of course, is what happens to RR teams after he leaves.

-At WVU, in his last season they went 11-2 (I'm giving him credit for the bowl victory, even though he wasn't officially there when WVU beat ASU 48-28).  The next season, WVU went 9-4, a decrease of .153 (or 2 games).

If M fires RR and hires any random coach, and assuming the w/l as above, you can expect a 6-7 season next year.  

So 11-2 with Harbaugh, 6-7 with RR leaving, it gives us an average of 9-4-ish

But won't RR get that anyhow? Well, let's see how RR does between season 3 and 4 historically.

-At WVU, he went from 8-5 his 3rd season, to 8-4 his 4th season. That increase of .051 is worth about 2/3 of a game in a 13 game schedule. So if we keep RR, making the w/l assumptions above, M would go 9-4.  It is  a push for next year.

Now, what about the future.  How does Harbaugh do from season 1 to 2, and how does RR do from season 4 to 5.

For RR, season 4 to 5 is an increase from 8-4 to 11-1, that increase of .25 puts M at 12-1 in 2012.  I didn't put in a Big Ten Championship game, but it definitely could be possible.  BCS Bowl, too

For Harbaugh, season 1 to 2 is an increase from 4-8 to 5-7,  that increase of .083 put M at 10-3 in 2012

How about from season 5 to 6 for RR and 2-3 for Harbaugh

-RR 11-2 to 10-2, -.128 would put M between 9 and 10 wins.

-Harbaugh 5-7 to 8-5, .198 would put M between 12 and 13 wins in 2013.  Still using 13 game season, possible National Championship game, it looks like

So, it looks like M has the best shot at first getting a BCS bowl and maybe a conference championship in 2012 if RR is kept.  

But, the best shot at a National Championship is in 2013 if he is replaced by Harbaugh. 

I really expected it to look better for hiring Harbaugh.  Either way, I guess we are heading toward a BCS Bowl game in the next few years.  

I'm Not As Smart As Most, But I Do Know Some Things

The past week was interesting as I listened to all of the people calling for the firing of RR and then all fot he others who are RR supporters .  Both sides are all so knowledgeable, it is amazing.

For instance, the anti-RR people know that RR will never win at M, that the spread doesn't work in the Big 10 and that RR is a bad person (for many reasons).  Meanwhile, the pro-RR crowd knows that RR will be successful if we have patience, that Mallett was leaving before RR even arrived (though nobody in the know actually has said this) and that changing coaches now would set the program back another 3 years.

How are they so smart?

With all of that said, I know two things:  3-9.  5-7.

Early in the year, when we were watching Illinois play Missouri (and playing them well early), I commented that it is good for the big 10.  SarcasMike commented something about it meaning that Illinois (who wasn't too good last year and lost some key players) could be better than we think and it could be a tough game vor M.  I had to admit that was true.

I have never thought like that before.  I root for the big10 to win all non-conference games because being in strong conference means higher national ranking.  I have never looked at is as a good good big10 non-conference win means a tougher M schedule and possibly more losses.  I haven't thought, until RR, that is, that we have no hope of a conference championship and we just need to find wins.

RR has made me look at some games as NOT possible wins.

From the time I started dating my Spartan now-wife, I always felt good that I could root for her team when they weren't playing M.  There was usually no reason not to.  M was usually ranked higher, was higher in the conference standings and beat MSU.  Sometimes all 3 of these wouldn't happen, but 1 or 2 were common, and we knew it was just temporary.  Until this year, that is.  I can't describe how much I want MSU to lose.  M has lost 3 times in a row, 2 of them were blowouts.  After 3 conference games this year, M is 2 1/2 games behind MSU.  Dantonio has as many conference wins in Michigan Stadium as RR.  I really hate this.

RR has made me hate my wife's football team.

Now, I'm not going to be the typical anti-RR guy who finds something wrong with RR no matter what news comes out (the Lombardi comment or Demens getting sued, for instance), but there are concerns I have with him and some things he has said.

I read the interview he gave to Wojo and a couple things stuck out.  First, he said that the pressure at M is not as much as he had at WVU.  Obviously, I don't know what he is feeling, but I'd be very surprised that the spotlight and responsibility at WVU would be as great and widespread as at M.  But, what really makes me think he either doesn't understand what he got himself into by coming here, or that he is lying, is when he keeps mentioning that winning is going to take time.  I don't know what he went into at WVU, but at M he came into a program that hadn't had a losing season in 4 decades.  AND HE'S HAD 2 OF THEM!!!!  How can he not think there is more pressure here?

Another thing about RR that I don't like is that he NEVER admits fault.  He never says "I'm responsible" for only 8 wins in 2 years, for the many bad TOs and penalties (yes, I do think that is coaching) or for the horrible defense.  In fact, his first year, I can remember he and Calvin McGee blaming specific players (QBs, mostly). I just don't like that.

One other comment I've heard RR say a lot is "We aren't good enough to make mistakes and win."  I would think that almost all teams would be in that situation, unless you are significantly better than the teams you play.  Were his teams at WVU that much better than other Big East teams?  Is that a sign that he CAN'T win in the Big 10?  Or is it a sign that his teams are mistake-prone teams?  Again, I don't know, but it is a concerning comment.

So, what does RR have to do to keep his job?  I don't know.  But, one more thing I DO know is that as long as he is here, regardless of whether he makes M a winner again, there will be a split in Wolverine Nation.  I'm not calling for him to get fired at this point, but I hope that this split is a factor when Brandon is making his decisions.

Wingless Helmets

Again, I don't want to be all "I hate everything RR does", but I don't like the idea of having M helmets with the wings. I get his point of requiring them to earn his wings, but I guess if they were recruitable, as players and as people, they deserve to wear wings. If they aren't worthy of going on the field, then bench them or kick them off the team.

For the first time ever, I read portions of the Bacon / Bo book. And the more I read, the more I though "RR doesn't do that". It makes me uncomfortable the more I see that RR's philosophy is different than Bo's. I should be 63, not 43.

Comment #2

The other thing I want to mention has to do with woolfolk’s comments. I’m not talking about the comments he made about Forcier, but rather the comments that he pays attention during films rather than listening to his ipod or texting or whatever he said he used to do. I don’t like being one of those guys who finds a bad thing to say about RR whenever something is mentioned about the team, but this comment startled me. I know times are different, but I’m pretty convinced Bo would have made sure there were no ipod’s or cell phones on in the classroom, and maybe not even on in the building (which would result in a group of guys standing just outside the door texting, I’m sure). It took Mark Messner (I believe) as a guest to comment that he didn’t like the players using their headphones when getting off the bus for RR to change his rules (but I still have seen them with headphones on when going from bus to locker room, so maybe that really didn’t change). I admit I am an old fuddy-duddy about some things, but that comment by woolfolk really does reinforce the difference between Bo and RR. Woolfolk may have brought his device in during the Carr era, too, of course, but Lloyd has given me evidence that he is a Michigan Man as I want the M coach to be. Rr hasn’t done that yet.

Biden and Rodrig

It really isn't a big deal what Biden said about Rodrig, because he'll get to apologize in the White House Rose Garden after M wins the National Championship after the 2011 season. Or, maybe Joe will apologize to Jim Harbaugh.

What I've Seen So Far

My opinions of spring practice and the team are limited to the snippets I see at MGoBlue.com, and the occasional MGoBlog entry that is worth reading, so I only have a few things that I've really noticed.


1)Gardner appears to have some moves. I don't know what this means in terms of his ability to play and make plays, but it definitely fits into the RR offense.
2) If you didn't already know, DLaces is fast. Really fast. And in some of the video I saw, he actually ran the spread/read (I don't know the difference) option and also made some moves that consisted of more than accelerating and outrunning. If the practice highlights are anything like what he can do against opponents, I could become a Lacehead
3) Too many running backs and wide receivers who are good. Hopefully, some of them become great.

I know I only mentioned the main skill positions. That is all I have really seen. Part of that is because the camera shots are too tight on the M website. They love their ball carriers.

One more thing. The NCAA investigating WVU. Is it normal for the NCAA to go to a prior school of the coach when they find infractions? It seems a bit presumptive if they do that. It almost seems like that must have had another reason (former players saying things were not done correctly, etc.) to actually start that investigation. I hope I'm wrong. Not that I want RR to stay around more than this year, but I really would like it to be a quiet season regarding off field events. After the season, let's talk about what to do with him

Michigan QB situation

Rodriguez: ...he’s a talented, talented guy...

Sullivan: Being fast doesn't equal being talented.

If there is really a battle for the starting QB job, M will win no more than 5 games next year. I don't believe either of these things are true.

From the RR rally

He repeated his "all in" mantra, which he has made the unifying slogan of the program and said "everybody else that's not all in -- the hell with them," to a raucous cheer.

To hell with me, huh? To hell with you! How do you like that?! I wanna tell you something, anybody says anything about Iowa better be prepared to back it up, pal. I'll give you a fist-full of Iowa naiveté right in the puss! How about that?

NCAA Infractions

The longer we have to wait for the NCAA to finish their investigation, the more concerned I become. Maybe that should make me less concerned. I just don't know.

Defran in depth

I finally read the post and listened to the audio of Defran's RR being fired comments.

When I first read the portion of the transcript mentioning the firing, I thought it appeared he must have something there, and really does have sources. Then, when I listened to the entire 'rant' my opinion changed completely.

Defran really is dumb. His arguments are weak, based on non-fact, he stretches the truth and the relationship between things to prove an argument. Simply, he is dumb. And his comments about the firing came in the middle of the ran and just came and went without any fanfare. For a prepared statement, the most important thing he mentioned was buried. Showing he is a bad writer, too.

I, now, 100% don't buy it. (i was at 60% not buying previously).

DeFran "RR will be fired in January"

Did you see this on MVictors or hear DeFran on WTKA yesterday?

DeFran claims to have heard from 3 sources that all of the new AD choices have their own coach in mind, and that Martin will fire RR for cause (Practice violations) in January (I haven't listened - just paraphrasing MVictors quotes)

Since I'm not a DeFran fan it is tough for me to think this has any chance of being correct. I don't think he's ever been a fan of RR, but I don't know why he would create sources and stories that weren't there.

If only Dave Chaffin was still there to get to the bottom of this.

Article from the past

Her is an interesting article from a couple years ago.

Interesting because Stoops is going through the same thing this year with ND. And RR may have been less than honest. Or maybe not. I don't remember when things went down back then.

Rothstein and Birkett video

Here is vid by the Annarbor.com guys. It is short, but I think it sums up some things. Rothstein make a good point as to when/why the season went where it did.

A brief summary of what I am thinking.

There are two things that surprise me about this whole RR thing. The first is how vehement the RR supporters are. I understand vehemence in the anti-RR crew. Firing is an aggressive thing to do and being aggressive in discussing it is not unusual. But, those who are supporting RR are just as aggressive and insulting to the other side, etc. It is amazing.

The second thing is that I really want him gone. I don't know if I want him fired, or as you said are hoping for minimal punishment, but enough to have to let him go, or what, but I really don't want him at M anymore. I don't know when I started not liking him, but I know it was prior to the first game last year. I think what disappoints me most about my feelings about it is NOT that I am not supporting M by not supporting the coach (as many people say), but I can't say for sure that I would feel the same way if he was finishing his second 9-3 season. Hopefully, I would.

But, of course, he isn't 18-6. He is 8-15. And I am not convinced he is ever going to bring this program to the promised land of challenging for BCS Championships every year. But as Sam and Ira say, we don't know where it is going from here, RR stay or go. WHICH IS ANOTHER THING about him. Why can we not know this? If nearly anyone else had been hired, we would likely know this. I'm not saying things would be a lot better, but I do think they would be better. And I think the reason why is simple. RR is stubborn.

There was an MGoBlog paragraph mentioning another blog or something (I think) talking about how you have to buy in 100% to the spread system or you just have a bad offense running some bad spread option plays. I know that is one of the excuses pro RR people use to account for last year. You have to buy into it 100%, can't use a hybrid system, etc. etc. For argument purposes, I will assume that the spread is that kind of offense (though I don't know if I buy it). If that really is the case, unless RR or any other coach was a 100% lock, we should have avoided this kind of spread coach (from what I understand, the Brian Kelly spread is more straight forward running rather than the option game). If it was going to be such a specialist type of system, why would we do it? We know we can get talent. We just need a coach to take advantage of it (the big criticism of Lloyd). Why would we need to have a coach that needs to be doing something DIFFERENT, too? (we wouldn't have tried a triple option offense, would we?) Maybe the answer there is that they COULDN'T get anyone else. Martin may have really messed up on that one.

I heard from more than one place (and one source had it come from a college coach) that it is an easier transition from spread to pro-style than the other way. So, the growing pains into RR should have been seen. Also, that should alleviate some of the growing pains back the other way if someone, say Harbaugh, would come over.

Speaking of a transition like that, I know that there isn't a typical pro-style QB on the roster (well, a good one), but if a Harbaugh (for example) came next year, he would find a way to use the QBs. I think he would use his imagination to do things with other players, etc. He might even run some wildcat. Why didn't RR use his imagination? It really was "let's run the spread' all the time. Even the trickiest trick plays for RR seem less tricky than something Lloyd would do. I don't get it.

Even though I am saying all of this, I know that it is safer to NOT fire him. Even though I don't think he is going to improve significantly during his time at M, if you fire him and the firing is wrong, it is much worse than if you keep him and that is wrong. We are a near .500 team. The wrong replacement may go down from there.

And, if Karsch is right, and I think that he is, if Harbaugh were hired, or Miles or maybe a few other coaches with M connections that coach would get a longer time to turn things around than RR, mainly because he would be an M man.

And going back to the transition, I think the transition would be smoother with any M man because there would be some return to the M traditions. Most importantly, I think yearlong captains need to come back. Enough said on that or I'll be accused of being an old fuddy-duddy.

I heard someone say that M fans don't have the patience to be a Nat Champ contender. That made me say to myself, "we shouldn't have to...". We weren't that far from a Nat Champ. 9-4, with a couple close games is only a couple games and a couple plays away. 3-9 is a little farther. Really how long DO we have to wait for RR to bring M to a BCS bowl? Can the RR supporters guarantee in his 5th year? That is the soonest I see it now. And I don't expect it then.

I understand RR has had some personnel issues on this team. I'll give him some slack for last year, but the D is so bad this season, there had to be a way to fix that. He has had two recruiting classes and there was an entire offseason to make moves of O players to D if that is what was necessary (he thinks it is now). I just don't think that the team's talent level is worse than Indiana (almost lost at home), Illinois and PU. I may be wrong, of course, but that is how I see it.

Also, I am tired of the excuse of 3 D coordinators in 3 years. SO? All DCs teach that players should do fundamentals. Maybe the 4th one should emphasize it more.

The latest report on the self-reporting issue was interesting in that there is a lot of interpretation of what it means. Mistakenly, I listened to Sam and Ira and they (surprise) think it shows that someone from the inside leaked that report to the Freep which led to the big Freep story before the season. Though this may be true, why didn't the Uni say something about it the day the Freep story came out. "We know about the allegations. We did our own report on portions of what the Free Press story mentions." etc. And if that report was out there and RR still had his crying press conference, something seems a little insincere.

I believe that there could have been someone from inside leaking something. One thing M has been fortunate about in the past million years is that the insiders (the athletic dept staff, former players with influence, rich alums) have generally been on the same page on the football coach. Even when there were some Lloyd haters out there, I never heard anything about an insider wanting him to be fired. But, with RR, that has changed. From before he was hired, there was a split (remember the Les Miles fiasco) and since his hire and especially since the bad record there is a canyon. In the long run, how can you consider keeping him. That split will always be there. It will be very difficult to be successful when you don't have everyone on the same page.

I like to listen to Karsch and Anderson when it comes to M stuff. It appears that Karsch likes RR, which is understandable, he does a lot of work with him, but he isn't so blind as to think RR will last past this season, even if there is no NCAA punishment.

My ultimate hope at this time would be for M to be putting out feelers right now. Harbaugh would be my first choice. I don't know why other than I think he is a Michigan man, he has shown he can win, and I would hope that watching him coach would bring that feeling I used to get when I watched him play. If they get a bite, then I say cut the losses on RR, and start over. I don't care what it costs (they'll pay what they need, anyhow). I don't care how many of RR's WRs leave. I only care about caring. About M football. And feeling excited about Saturday, not because I'm going to go to Fleetwood Diner, but because there is a good football game.

This Saturday there is not. And RR is the main one to blame (I think I wrote something similar last year)

I will cheer for his teams as long as he is here. I hope that isn't too long.

Practice Time Scandal

I'll start this by saying, I want Michigan to succeed, therefore I want RR to succeed. Part of the problem if I were to admit he's not likely to turn things around next year so maybe he should be fired now (not that I'm quite ready to say that) - is the havoc this would reap on the program. More kids leaving, another coaching search, players that might not fit the next guy's system, Michigan didn't give him time, etc...

As strange as it sounds, if the "practice scandal" is enough to get him fired, it would at least alleviate the "M didn't give him a chance" problem, and potentially keep some of the players in the program as well - they could also blame RR for their losses.

Obviously, if this were to occur, I'd somehow want the scandal to be enough to get him fired yet not enough to elicit any "real" punishment from the NCAA. What would I do to my database regarding forfeited wins? Also, we'd need to have a coach basically already signed. And I think that coach needs to be Jim Harbaugh.