What a Game

The RR haters will say the offensive mistakes had nothing to do with the weather, but then will blame the weather for the defense not allowing a TD.  The RR lovers will use the weather as an excuse for the Offense and just say the D is improving.

Both are right.  And wrong.

I think, overall, the game was very similar to last week in that both teams were doing what they could to lose the game.  How they did it this week was different, of course, but it was still the same result:  A win that did nothing to make me more confident about the last two regular season games.

It really is sad that M is 7-3, has won two games in a row, and I still have little confidence M has any chance to win either of the last two games. I may be unreasonably pessimistic, but the past 2 5/6 seasons has done that to me.

At this point, I expect RR will be the coach for M next year.  I've sorta thought that since M was 5-0, barring a total meltdown.  There was only a temporary meltdown, and he has pulled the team out of it.  Kindof.  

Keeping RR is probably a good thing for next year and maybe the year after.  For the next 10 years, though, I think it is a bad idea.  (of course, I'm still predicting RR will leave on his own after 6 years).  I'm tired of the argument.  And as long as he stays, we'll hear the argument whenever M loses, or plays poorly (like after this game, maybe).

During the postgame show, Frank Beckman said the win brings M to 7-5.  Not even 'homer' Frank thinks M has a chance the next two weeks.  

sigh

Big ten ladder

If I understand jiMpossible's ladder rules correctly I think the current Big Ten ladder is:

Iowa-MSU-Wisconsin
OSU
Illinois-Michigan-Penn St
Purdue
Northwestern
Indiana-Minnesota

Based on the ladder this weeks results should be:

Michigan over Purdue (PU victory would put the two teams into their own tier)
Iowa over N'western (NU victory would cause a lot of work)
Wisconsin over Indiana (IU win would cause a lot of work)
Illinois over Minnesota (Minn would cause of lot of work)
Ohio State over Penn St (PSU win would move OSU into the Ill/UM/PSU tier)

trying to get up by two scores

I've been thinking about posting something about Michigan's inability to get a two score lead for a little while. Burgeoning Wolverine Star did the homework. In a way it wasn't as bead as I thought. Because in their losses M was seldom ahead trying to get that 2nd score.

He removed the "blowout" games of UConn and BGSU, so in the other 8 games M has succeeded only twice in 22 tries to get up by two scores. M was 3 for 3 in the UConn and BGSU games (see below) - so they are 5 for 25 on the year.

BWS points to more conservative play calling from RR when M has that one score lead as the potential problem.

Opp	Score	field pos	run	pass	Pen	1st Downs	result
UC	7-0	M20	5	2	0	4	TD
ND	14-7	M8	3	1	0	1	punt
ND	14-7	M14	3	3	0	2	punt
ND	14-7	M37	0	3	1	0	punt
ND	14-7	M2	4	1	0	2	TD
ND	21-14	M17	2	1	0	0	punt
ND	21-17	M27	5	4	1	3	missed FG
ND	21-17	ND25	2	2	1	0	punt
ND	21-17	M41	5	3	0	2	missed FG
ND	21-17	M15	2	5	1	2	punt
ND	21-17	ND48	1	2	0	0	punt
Mass	21-17	M31	6	0	0	3	TD
BGSU	7-0	M12	3	2	0	2	TD
BGSU	21-14	M31	4	7	1	4	TD
IU	14-7	M19	1	2	0	1	fumble
IU	28-21	M13	2	1	0	0	punt
IU	35-28	M28	2	1	0	0	punt
IU	35-28	M30	3	1	0	1	punt
IU	35-28	M39	2	1	0	0	punt
MSU	3-0	M13	2	1	0	0	punt
Iowa	7-0	M20	2	1	1	0	punt
Ill	7-3	M18	6	3	0	3	Int
Ill	7-3	M15	0	1	0	0	Int
Ill	7-6	0	0	0	0	0	fumble
Ill	38-31	M20	6	3	0	3	missed FG
Sum			71	51	6	33
Average		M25	2.8	2.0	0.2	1.3

One thing is clear, the games M has lost they haven't had many chances to get up two scores. They're 0-2 in those three losses.
I'd really like M to break this trend and finish this weeks game with a nice calm 1 for 1 and never look back, but

Prediction for M vs. Purdue

The last game I saw in-person with "real Michigan Football" was probably the 2007 Michigan v. Purdue game. Mike Hart, Chad Henne etc. were finally healthy again and Michigan played like the team they were supposed to be all year. Then Hart sprained his ankle again and although I saw Lloyd's last team beat Minnesota handily and pull out a "Sparty No" win at MSU. They were never really healthy again until the Outback Bowl.
Since then Rodriguez has won half the games I've seen but only won twice on the road without me. I'd like to think that getting that 6th win gets Michigan over the hump and they play their best game of the year. But they seem to be coming up against things that have hurt them before.

Road game (although M is 2-0 in Indiana this year)
Opponent's back-up quarterback forced into starting
Opponent that isn't Indiana or Minnesota
Injuries causing a shuffle on the defense

Although I still think Michigan could win in a blow out:

M 42
Purdue 38

cbrc

M is #88.

I hope we can get a few wins in the non-conference and move a little.  Once the Big Ten season starts it is going to be painful.

Purdue Prediction Based On IPod Billboard

"That's not Michigan Football..."

I'm tired of callers, show hosts etc. saying "That's not Michigan Football..."

Giving up 65 points is ridiculous, but if M scores 67, I'll take it. There are flaws in this team, but there are still some signs of competence. Courtney Avery missed a tackle at Iowa on third down that would have given M the ball back down one score - he made a similar tackle against Illinois that forced a 4th down. That 4th down was followed by the missed field goal.

I've heard people complaining that the players and coaches rushed the field after finally stopping Illinois. Why shouldn't they be excited? They'd finished off a game they had plenty of chances to lose. They won their sixth game - making them bowl eligible. They won a triple overtime game. They beat a team they'd lost to two years in a row that many people, including me, didn't expect them to beat. These all seem to be great reasons to rush the field.

The special teams is having problems; that isn't new- blocked kicks played a role in M losing 3 games in 1979. If Mike Lantry could make a medium range field goal in 1973 - M doesn't need to rely on the AD's vote or in 1974 - Denny Franklin would have gotten to play in the Rose Bowl. Bob Wood missing in 1976 @ Purdue, Mike Gillette missing in 1988 @ND, Blocked kick for a TD in Moeller's only OSU loss in 1994, horrible special teams in 2003 @ Oregon and Iowa... if anything kicking woes are more a part of the Michigan tradition than not.

"This isn't a Michigan Defense..." 54 points to Northwestern in 2000; unable to stop Appalachian State or Oregon in 2007; complete defensive breakdown from the 2nd half of 2006 Ball State game on through the Rose Bowl loss; Defensive collapse against Miami in 1988; 51 points to Florida State in 1991; did Michigan ever tackle Vince Young? There are definitely issues with the defense, I'm sure it is a perfect storm of poor coaching, young players, players trying to do things they just aren't capable of doing. At the same time, the defense gave M the ball several times with a chance to take a 2 score lead Saturday (and against Indiana), they kept the MSU and Iowa games close while the offense couldn't get started, and on their 100th snap against Illinois they broke through and ended the game. We'd all like them to be better, but they're wearing the winged helmets, there a Michigan Defense.