Trophy Predictions for 2013

Baylor is the current holder of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. Looking ahead, it might be theirs for a while.

Baylor opens tomorrow night with Wofford. The Terriers finished 9-4 last year in the FCS. Baylor is a 30 point favorite in the match-up.

In week 2 assumed winner Baylor will host Buffalo. Using the current CFRC, Baylor is ranked #20, Buffalo is #98.

Week 3 would have Baylor again at home facing Louisiana-Monroe. ULM is ranked #72 in the CFRC.

Week 4 Baylor starts conference play hosting WVU. The rankings are getting closer, but the Mountaineers are #50. If the pollsters know anything (WVU is only ranked above Baylor in 2 of the polls) this should be a Baylor win.

Week 5 finally has Baylor leaving Waco and heading to the Little Apple - Manhattan, Kansas. This should be a close match-up. KSU is #16 in the CFRC and the home team. I'll predict a Wildcat win here.

KSU has a bye week then hosts WVU, should be another Wildcat victory.

KSU should handle Iowa State the next week before heading on the road to Lubbock to face Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders are ranked #46 - should be enough for a Wildcat victory.

TCU (#23) might be favored if the game wasn't in Manhattan - so we'll keep the trophy with KSU the following week.

Just before Thanksgiving, KSU hosts Oklahoma in what could be (depending on what KSU already did in Stillwater) the de facto conference championship game. The Sooners are #16, we'll give the the win and send the trophy on to Bedlam.

The Cowboys are ranked #10 and hosting the game. We'll give the victory to Ok State.

The Cowboys will definitely be bowling - the win over Oklahoma should seal it for a BCS game - if not the BCS championship game. But staying true to the CFRC, we'll put Alabama and Oregon in the MNC game. That would put OK State in the Fiesta Bowl against, let's say Notre Dame. Another Ok State win.

Looks like a pretty safe year in the Big 12 for the trophy.

M vs. CMU prediction based on historical data

M is 179-49-1 in all games I have attended (data is ONLY for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 59-14 in non-conference games
M is 150-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 129-20-1against unranked opponents
M is 152-35-1 when ranked
M is 7-1 when ranked #17
M is 2-0 vs. CMU
M is 19-1 against MAC schools
M is 148-38-1 vs. Public Schools
M is 9-1 with #12 as starting QB
M is 104-26 on artificial turf
M is 15-2 in games with Brady Hoke as their head coach (M is 16-2 when Hoke coaches either team)
              Quick rundown of all M coaches: Bo 42-8; Mo 24-7-1; Carr 86-18; RR 12-14
M is 17-5-1 when facing schools with Native American nicknames
M is 32-5 in the 1st game of the season
M is 4-1 in August
M is 15-2 with a QB starting his 3rd game
M is 4-0in their head coach's 18th game
M is 1-0 when facing a head coach who beat M as a starting QB

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 47 CMU 7

Central Michigan University Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania  41
Central Normal School 18

Season Prediction

Season Prediction:
9-4

FIeld Goals

Wolverine Historian posted a 9 minute video of Michigan's successful game winning field goals since Bob Bergeron Beat Iowa in the rain in 1983 



When I was a kid it seemed like Michigan only lost games by field goals. Here are games Michigan lost to last second field goals in my recollection:

1972 Rose Bowl Stanford makes ~30 yarder in final minute
1973 OSU - Mike Lantry misses at least once in the closing minutes - games ends in 10-10 tie, but the Buckeyes go to Pasadena
1974 OSU - Mike Lantry again "misses" as the clock runs out. Michigan fans still think it went inside the upright, but OSU won 12-10
1976 Purdue - Bob Wood missed a field goal at the end. I remember listening on the radio - Ufer, in full disappointing voice, "it's up, it's no good, Michigan loses 16-14..."
1980 - Notre Dame's Harry Oliver waits for the howling winds to stop and kicks the game winner
1984 Sugar Bowl - Auburn's field goal in the last minute makes another bowl loss for Bo
1985 - Iowa - Rob Houghtlin keeps Iowa #1 over #2 Michigan
1986 - Minnesota kicks a late field goal to steal a victory from Jim Harbaugh
1988 Mike Gillette can't match Reggie Ho's late field goal in South Bend
1988 - Miami's late field goal completes their furious comeback
1996 Northwestern kicks a late FG to make it 2 in a row over Michigan
2000 - Purdue holds M out of the endzone in the 2nd half and wins it at the end on a short field goal
2000 - After Anthony Thomas's famous fumble leads to a Northwestern TD - Michigan actually moves into field goal range - but a bad snap leads to Hayden Epstein throwing an incomplete pass
2005 Rose Bowl Vince Young did all the damage - but Ernest Shazor just missed blocking the field goal the defeated M
2005 Minnesota ruins homecoming
2007 The horror at the end of Appalachian State
2008 KC Lopata misses against Toledo

bad memories one and all...

What does What If Sports think of Bob Stoops and Andy Staples

My twitter feed is abuzz today with Bob Stoops questioning the depth of greatness in the SEC. SI's Andy Staples posed the question of what the record would be a in head-to-head 1-10 match-ups.
I went to the website WhatIfSports.com to see what the simulators think.

I used the 2012 versions of the respective teams based their standings on the ESPN college football standings page.

SEC	Score	Big 12	Score
Alabama	47	KSU	10
Georgia	17	OU	49
Florida	58	Texas	6
LSU	6	Ok St	44
Texas AM	26	Baylor	21
So Carolina	21	TTU	50
Vandy	13	TCU	20
Miss St	23	WVU	48
Ole Miss	27	Iowa St	16
Mizzou	27	Kansas	38

Surprisingly enough, we end up with the Big 12 holding a 6-4 advantage. Of course since we care more about how the boneg would have faired...

SEC	Score	boneg	Score
Alabama	56	OSU	17
Georgia	27	Nebraska	36
Florida	7	Michigan	9
LSU	33	PSU	20
Texas AM	24	Wisconsin	6
So Carolina	24	Northwestern	23
Vandy	34	MSU	3
Miss St	21	Purdue	34
Ole Miss	27	Iowa	20
Mizzou	50	Indiana	17
Arkansas	62	Minnesota	14
Tennessee	47	Illinois	10

It isn't pretty. The boneg finishes 3-9 and all 3 wins are likely upsets. It ends up much like Michigan's split MNC year of 1997-98 - the only conference wins are Michigan, Purdue and Nebraska...

January Prediction for M 2013 record

8/31/13 Central Michigan - W
9/7/13 Notre Dame -L
9/14/13 Akron - W
9/21/13 @ Connecticut - W
10/5/13 Minnesota - W
10/12/13 @ Penn State -L
10/19/13 Indiana - W
11/2/13 @ Michigan State - W
11/9/13 Nebraska - W
11/16/13 @ Northwestern - W
11/23/13 @ Iowa - W
11/30/13 Ohio State - W

BthreeG championship vs. OSU - L
Capitol One Bowl vs. Louisiana State - L

10-4

I'm a lot less confident in these picks than I was last year at this time...