Better than being blocked

January Prediction for 2015 record

My 4th annual January guess at Michigan's upcoming football season record
2012 - predicted 9-5 - ended up 8-5
2013 - predicted 10-4 ended up 7-6
2014 - predicted 9-4 ended up 5-7

As you can see my predictions have gotten worse each season.

2015 provides a lot of variables. How much will the new coaching staff improve the Hoke flaws? How will play QB? How will the veteran players take to the new - expected to be tougher - staff?

Here goes:

9/3 @ Utah - L
9/12 Oregon St - W
9/19 UNLV - W
9/26 BYU -W
10/3 @ Maryland - W
10/10 Northwestern - W
10/17 MSU - L
10/31 @ Minnesota - W
11/7 Rutgers - W
11/14 @ Indiana - W
11/21 @ Penn St - W
11/28 OSU - L

Foster Farms Bowl vs. Stanford - W

10-3

That seems way too confident...

Trophy Update Bowls 2014

TCU dominated Ole Miss 42-3 to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy in the Big 12 going in to 2015. With the Big 12 playing 9 conference games there are aren't many chances to get the trophy to another conference.


Here is TCU's 2015 schedule

9/3/15 @ Minnesota
9/12/15 Stephen F Austin
9/19/15 SMU
9/26/15 @ Texas Tech
10/3/15 Texas
10/10/15 @ Kansas St
10/17/15 @ Iowa St
10/29/15 WVU
11/7/15 @ Oklahoma St
11/14/15 Kansas
11/21/15 @ Oklahoma
11/27/15 Baylor

It looks like the best chance before the bowl season for the trophy to leave the Big 12 is the season opener at Minnesota. Then if the Golden Gophers can beat Colorado St, Kent St, Ohio, Northwestern, Purdue and Nebraska, the Little Brown Jug won't be the only trophy at stake on Halloween!

Go Gophers (for the next 7 games)

Boneg and Bowls

Not unlike most recent years, the Boneg is looking to have a very bad bowl season in 2014-2015.  And not unlike most recent years, it appears to me, and some other fans that don't want things to actually be as bad as they appear, that a primary reason the Boneg does so poorly in the bowl games is because the league has set up a lot of bad bowl matchups.  It always seems that the Boneg teams are playing teams that finished higher in their respective conferences than did the Boneg team in the Boneg.  

So, similar to some prior posts that I've had (so long ago, I don't want to go back and try to hyperlink to them), I will examine whether this theory is correct.  

I am simply going to list the teams in each game and their position in their respective conference. To keep things simple, the conference championship game winner is #1, with conference record for all other positions.  For a conference without a conference championship game, the conference record is used.  Ties will include all positions with the same record (you'll see what I mean).

The number of teams in a conference matters.  Being the 5th place team in a 10 team conference is different than being the 5th place team in a 14 team conference.  I will take this idea into account when reviewing this.

So, let's go...

Penn State (#12/14 teams) v Boston College (ACC, #6-8/14 teams).  Clearly, the Boneg should lose here.  Who is scheduling these games?  (0-1)

Illinois (#8-10/14) v Louisiana Tech (#2/13).  This is the only Boneg bowl game against a non-Power 5 conference school.  Power 5 or not, the #2 team of every conference in FBS should beat the #8 team in any other FBS conference (let alone the #10 team).  Boneg should lose.  (0-2).  This is going as expected.

Rutgers (#8-10/14) v North Carolina (#6-8/14).  If these teams were each at #8, it would be a push, but that isn't quite what is happening here.  Boneg should lose.  (0-3).  

Maryland (#6-7/14) v Stanford (#6-7/12).  This is where the size of the conference matters.  A 6th or 7th place team in a 14 team conference is in the top half of the conference.  6th or 7th in a 12 team conference is right at the border of top half/bottom half.  Boneg should win (1-3).  Minor setback.  Doesn't really change the theory. 

Iowa (#6-7/14) v Tennessee (#9-11/14).  Boneg should win (2-3).  Um, what's happening here?

Minnesota (#4-5/14) v Missouri (#2/14).  Boneg should lose (2-4).  Back on track to excuses, er explanations.  

Nebraska (#4-5/14) v USC (#3-5/12).  I had to do some extra calculations on this, with USC having a wider range, and there being a difference in size of conferences.  Basically I assumed each team would get a win against the teams above, and a loss against the teams below within their own conferences.  I used the average of the positions.  With that, USC was slightly higher (approx .750 v approx .730).  Boneg should lose (2-5). 

Wisconsin (#2-3/14) v Auburn (#6-8/14).  Boneg should win (3-5).  Ooof.  This one hurts because I really don't see it happening.

Michigan State (#2-3/14) v Baylor (#1-2/10).  I did the calculations similar to above, just to make sure (.940 to .880).  Boneg should lose.  (3-6)

Ohio State (#1/14) v Alabama (#1/14).  Tie. ("Good one, jiM)  (3-6-1)

So, the theory holds to a point.  It doesn't explain why the Boneg is the underdog in every bowl game, but it explains a little why Boneg will not do well for another bowl season.  

Ohio State Prediction based on sad expectations

M 9
OSU 42

Ohio State Prediction

Michigan 14

Ohio State 40

Maryland Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 189-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 124-41-1 in conference games
M is 159-41-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 versus Maryland

The last time I saw M play Maryland was in 1990. this got me thinking what is the longest gap, game-wise, I've gone seeing M play a particular team. 

I have seen 194 Michigan games since they last played Maryland (145-48-1). The next longest gaps are USC (110 from the 1988 Rose Bowl to the 2004 Rose Bowl); Alabama (105 from the 2000 Orange Bowl to the 2012 game in Dallas); San Diego St (63 from 2004 to the 2011 match-up) and Utah (50 from 2000 through 2008).

There are teams with current longer streaks than Maryland, including Oregon St, Arizona St, Long Beach St, Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, and UCLA.

In conference games Penn State and Illinois both had 43 game runs. Iowa went 40 games. Wisconsin is the active leader with 37 games and counting.

M is 27-10-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 6-6 in the 9th game of the season
M is 32-5 versus teams with Nicknames of  egg laying animals
M is 15-4 against teams coached by someone I've seen coach a different team against Michigan
M is 164-47-1 without Frank Clark on the roster
 M is 13-2 when they'll be lead by Jim Harbaugh in their next game

It's easy when you add it all together

M 24
MD 17