Friday, September 23, 2016

Penn State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 198-59-1 in all games I have attended
                         - data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise noted
M is 127-44-1 in conference games
M is 166-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 vs. Penn State
M is 114-21 vs schools with animal based nicknames
M is 47-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname
M is 17-3 when ranked #4
M is 145-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 20-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role with the team
M is 18-4 when facing a head coach who I have seen coach against a team other than Michigan
M is 51-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 116-38 vs. schools playing in their timezone
M is 24-6 vs. schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 24-7 in the 4th game I have seen in a season
M is 2-1 on September 24

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 42 PSU 21

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Penn State Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo 44
Penn State Nittany Puma Concolor* 19

*the Nittany lion is named after the Mount Nittany and the lion actually refers to the mountain lion/cougar found in the area, so I used the "Nittany" with the scientific name for mountain lion

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Colorado prediction based on historical data

 Michigan is 197-59-1 in all games I have attended
(all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 70-15 in non-conference games
M is 165-44-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 113-21 vs. schools with Animal based nicknames
M is 0-1 vs. Colorado
M is 1-1 vs. the Pac-12
M is is 9-5 vs. the Pac-10/12
M is 6-3 vs. schools that have been a member of more than one conference in separate attended games
M is 19-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 82-21-1 vs. schools playing out of their times zone
M is 50-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 16-3 when ranked #4
M is 144-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 2-1 on September 17
M is 11-6 in rainy weather - current forecast has 50% chance of rain
M is 10-4 vs. head coaches with alliterative names
M is  vs. 13-4 schools when their previous meeting was decided by a score in the last minute

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 45
Colorado 17

Colorado Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo     40
Colorado Bison Bison  20

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Hogs take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy from the Frogs

For the first time since the 2012 Orange Bowl the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy has left he Big 12 conference.

In a match up of old Southwest Conference foes, Arkansas went into Fort Worth and came away with a double overtime victory over TCU. Arkansas lead most of the way, but a 21 point 4th quarter by TCU moved the score from 20-7 Arkansas to 28-20 Horned Frogs.
The Hogs TD and two point conversion tied it up. A blocked field goal put the game into overtime.
TCU could only manage a field goal in the second OT so the Razorbacks TD meant the trophy was heading home to Fayetteville.
This is the third time Arkansas has taken the trophy. They beat Texas on 10/16/1965 and rattled off 5 more victories before losing to LSU in the1966 Cotton Bowl. The only other time they won the trophy was the epic upset over eventual National Champ, LSU on 11/23/2007. They fell again in the Cotton Bowl to Missouri in their next game.
They also lost in trophy games against USC in September of 1973, Duke in October of 1974, Baylor in November of 1991, USC again in September of 2005, Auburn in October of 2007, Florida in October of 2009 and Alabama in September of 2010. Their overall record in trophy games is 8-9.

Looking ahead to the Razorbacks schedule:
9/17 vs. Texas State (in Fayetteville)
9/24 vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
10/1 vs. Alcorn State (in Little Rock)
10/8 vs. Alabama (in Fayetteville)
10/15 vs. Mississippi (in Fayetteville)
10/22 at Auburn
11/5 vs. Florida (at Fayetteville)
11/12 vs. LSU (at Fayetteville)
11/19 at Mississippi State
11/25 at Missouri

Lots of home games for Arkansas - their website lists the Texas A&M game as a home game in Dallas. I'm guessing that may be a mistake, but it isn't a true road game either way.

If they get by the game in Jerryworld, I don't think they'll get by Alabama, even at home.


Friday, September 9, 2016

Central Florida Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 196-59-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 25-6 in the second attended games of the season
M is 69-15 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 1-0 vs. schools from the American Athletic
M is 164-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 60-24-1 vs. schools with Human-ish mascots
M is 18-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 77-21-1 in noon starts
M is 115-38 vs schools playing in their timezone
M is 1-2 on September 10
M is 12-1 when ranked #5
M is 143-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 31-5 when the next lost would make the total losses attended a number evenly divisible by 10
M is 1-0 vs. head coaches named Scott
M is 1-1 vs. head coaches with weather based names 
M is 13-4-1 vs. schools a niece or nephew of mine has attended/is attending
It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 42
UCF 10

Thursday, September 8, 2016

Central Florida Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo 43
Central Florida Cabelleros* 11

*For animal/plant mascots, I am using the scientific name.  For non-animals, I am using the mascot name in a relevant language.  Last week, naturally, I used Hawaiian.  For Central Florida, I decided to use Spanish because of the large Spanish-speaking population in the area.