Friday, October 20, 2017

M - Penn State prediction based on QB play

Back in the Lloyd Carr era I had a theory that the main thing that determined Michigan's chance of beating their opponent was who had the better QB.
Chad Henne's teams generally won even if they didn't seem to be they better team because he played better than the quarterback for the opposition.
When John Navarre was better than Craig Krenzel  -see 2003, M won. When Craig Krenzel was better than Navarre, M lost - see 2001 & 2002.
Now M won some games when the QB was not so good - Iowa and ND in 1997, Purdue in the snow in 1995 and lost some games where they certainly had the better QB - see most every game they lost with Tom Brady as QB. But in general it holds for the Lloyd Carr era at least.

The Harbaugh teams seem to follow this as well.
His first game - the 3 interceptions from Jake Ruddock were most of the difference. Although the MSU game ended in that ridiculous punt fiasco - if you switch QBs in that game M wins handily.
The 2016 Wolverines were dominant for many reasons - but when Speight played poorly at Iowa and was dealing with his lingering injury issues they lost 3 out of 4.
In 2017 - they have won despite poor QB play - but generally their defense has made the opposition QB look even worse. Last week vs. Indiana may be the exception.

I don't think O'Korn is a better QB than McSorley . There is a possibility that Michigan's defense can bring McSorley closer to his level.

But not close enough.

Michigan 13
Penn State 20

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Penn State Prediction

Hintz Family Alumni Center Stream Bridge, Penn State University

Playwicki Park Bridge, Langhorne, PA (birthplace of Penn State head coach James Franklin)

Michigan 14
Penn State 32

Monday, October 16, 2017

Trophy Update - Syracuse wins the orange battle

Syracuse shocked Clemson Friday night 27-24 in the Carrier Dome to win the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.This is only the 4th time the Orange have won the trophy.
In 1917 they defeated Brown and ran off 7 more victories into 1918 before getting shut out by Michigan 15-0.

Syracuse won the trophy back in their 1923 season finale with a 7-0 victory over Nebraska. The won their first first 5 in 1924 then tied Pitt before losing the trophy to West Virginia Wesleyan.

They didn't get the trophy back until 1952, with a 25-7 win over Penn State. The secured 2 more victories before falling to Alabama in the 1953 Orange Bowl.

This was only their 4 time playing for the trophy since that defeat. The other 3 games were all losses to Miami (FL). Their first trophy game was a 30-0 loss to Yale in 1903.

Syracuse has an overall record of 18-12-1 in trophy games.

Looking ahead at the schedule for the Orange:

10/21 at Miami(FL)
11/4 at Florida State
11/11 Wake Forest
11/18 At Louisville
11/25 Boston College

The first test seems to be the toughest. They've lost 3 straight trophy battles to the suddenly resurgent Hurricanes. It looks like the quickest way for the trophy to come to the Big Ten would be in a bowl game.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

M vs Indiana prediction based on I've got a bad feeling about this

As I've posted before not many people alive have seen M lose to Indiana.

In my lifetime M lost in 1967 and 1987. You'll note both of these years end in 7. The Hoosiers also defeated M in 1928, 1936, 1944, 1945 1954, 1958 and 1959. Nine Wolverine losses in 65 meetings.

I'm worried that the Hoosier defense will do a good job stopping Michigan's poor to middling offense. They hung around against the Buckeyes for most of that game. The score vs. Penn State doesn't;t reflect how close the game was statistically. They held Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries. The total yardage and first downs were very close - the Hoosiers lost the turnover battle 4-1. As M saw last week, it can be tough to overcome turnovers.

The talk from practice about working harder on fumble drills. Means "DON'T FUMBLE" is going to be on the mind of all the M backs and receivers. I'm worried that will backfire into at least one fumble this week.

O'Korn was bad in the rain Saturday night, he was bad last year in the snow against the Hoosiers. The weather does look good for Bloomington Saturday, so maybe the trend here is O'Korn is 2-0 against schools from Indiana? Maybe it's time for the kind from Indiana, Brandon Peters comes out and gets something done?

I can't see this game being an easy victory. The defense will need to stay the course and keep the team in the game.

M 10
IU 9

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Indiana Prediction

Bridge over Jordan River, Indiana University

Broad Street Bridge, New Castle, IN (birthplace of Indiana head coach Tom Allen)

Michigan 29
Indiana 20

Thursday, October 5, 2017

MSU prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 208-60-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 25-7 in the 4th attended games of the season (3-2 vs. MSU)
M is 134-44-1 vs. conference opponents
M is 38-3 in their first attended conference game
M is 17-9 vs. MSU
            MSU is 10-17 in all games I have attended
M is 2-0 vs. MSU when I am the Little Brother of someone else in the stadium 
M is 173-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 71-29-1 vs. schools with Human based nicknames
M is 74-17 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 30-6 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 1-0 with John O’Korn as starting QB
M is 10-4 in night games
M is 1-0 in 7:30 kickoffs
M is 2-2 on October 7th
M is 7-0 when ranked #7
M is 151-24-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 134-68 on artificial turf
M is 34-13 in trophy games
(Little Brown Jug, Paul Bunyan Trophy and jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy)
M is 6-2 on days when the Chicago Cubs are playing in the MLB playoffs
            (3-2 when the Cubs lose and 3-0 when Cubs win)

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 26
MSU 10

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Michigan State Prediction

Red Cedar River Bridge, Michigan State University

Bridge of the Americas, El Paso, TX (birthplace of Michigan State football coach Mark Dantonio)

Michigan 30
Michigan State 12