Wednesday, November 30, 2011

boneg championship game

These two things do not go together...

Me trying to sell my tickets for $90 each

People being offered $75 to be seat fillers...

Maybe I'll go and see if I can become a last minute seat filler. The ponec made a much better decision - having their championship game on campus in Oregon.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

M vs OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 171-48-1 in all games I have attended (all data refers to games I have attended unless specifically mentioned)
M is 133-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 115-35-1 in conference games
M is 5-1 when ranked 17th (only loss to OSU in 2005)
M is 122-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 37-8 with #16 as starting QB
M is 8-6 against OSU (6 losses ties OSU with MSU for most victories over M)
M is 4-5 in the 9th game I have seen them play in a season
M is 4-0 in their head coaches 9th game
M is 2-1 when facing a team for the 15th time
M is 0-1 when trying to stop a 3 game losing streak against an opponent
M is 25-9-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 20-5 when facing the 4th head coach for a particular team
M is 1-0 when facing a team that the next time M plays that team will be coached by Urban Meyer

It's easy when you add it all up..

M 24 - OSU 21

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Ohio State Prediction

Michigan 33
Ohio State 13

Sunday, November 20, 2011


  • I thought my 8-4 July prediction was pretty optimistic. Turns out I was a glass half empty guy.
  • The win does mean Michigan has beaten each conference opponent the first time I've seen them play. Nebraska joins Indiana as the only conference opponents I haven't seen beat Michigan.
  • Denard still seems tentative in his runs. I was glad to see him finally take the open field scramble rather than force a pass. He still seems to be making too many cuts rather than just running when he gets to open field.
  • Toussaint is good - sometimes he thinks he's Barry Sanders and turns a 1 yard loss into a 4 yard loss, but other than that - he has been stellar.
  • I'm happy for Martaveous Odoms. He has made a huge difference as a kick returner and he's becoming part of the passing game again. He was the ONLY offensive weapon on the 2008 team, he deserves to go out successfully.
  • Blake Countess is the best corner M has had in years. Not sure what the coaches thought when he was behind Woolfolk, Floyd and Avery at the beginning of the year. And he's only a freshman.
  • The defense will greatly miss Martin and Van Bergen next year. They are very good. I would be surprised if they're not playing on Sundays next year.
  • The power outage was weird. The underground men's room only had the emergency lights on. The scoreboards were out until just before the half. I assume jiMpossible's fan thingy would have worked - he would have been a star one eyed king amongst the blind.
Michigan has their best chance to beat OSU in quite a while - not sure when M was last favored in the game.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Little Hokey Foo Foo

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Nebraska Prediction Based On Trophy

m 26, n 23

M vs Nebraska prediction based on historical data

M is 170-48-1 in all games I have attended
M is 132-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 114-35-1 in conference games
M is 10-0 when facing a conference team for the first time
M is 5-1 when the opposing coach shares the first name of a former M coach*
M is 6-0 when ranked #20 (1-0 against ranked opponents when ranked #20)
M is 5-1 when opponent is ranked #17
M is 48-28 against ranked opponents (6 straight losses)
M is 20-13 when facing a higher ranked team
M is 48-19-1 against teams with "humanish" mascots
M is 36-8 with #16 as their starting QB
M is 10-4 in the 8th game I have seen them play in a particular season (3 straight losses)

It's easy when you add it all up

M 24 - Nebraska 28

* that I have seen - i.e. Bo, Gary, Lloyd or Rich

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Virginia Tech - New Trophy Holder

Sorry for the late post... I thought Georgia Tech held on to beat the Hokies. For Virginia Tech this is their first time winning College Football's Greatest Trophy. They are the first first-timer since Kentucky last season. And the 100th team to win the trophy overall!

Their win will likely keep the trophy out of the SEC - at least until bowl season. The Hokies have 2 games remaining on their schedule - this Thursday they travel to UNC then they host Virginia Saturday after Thanksgiving. VaTech currently leads the Coastal division of the ACC. Clemson has clinched the Atlantic division, the Tigers would be the opponent in Charlotte.

The ACC champ will likely go to the Orange Bowl against a BCS at-large team. If Michigan wins their final 2 games - they may receive an at-large bid...

(AP Photo/John Bazemore *)


Friday, November 11, 2011

Michigan vs. Illinois predictions

Illinois mostly bottles up Michigan's offense except for 2 big plays
Only 1 turnover for Michigan
Robinson less than 50% completions but 2 TDs (see above)
Michigan's D has trouble with Scheelhaase - but wins the turnover battle

Michigan 23 Illinois 21

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Going for 2 or not when down 9

Both BrianGoBlog and BWchriS commented about Michigan's decision to kick the PAT rather than go for 2 when they scored what turned out to be their final touchdown.

MGoBlog thinks M made the wrong decision and BWS disagrees.

I tend to agree that kicking the PAT was correct.

Time left: Michigan scored with 7:53 remaining, making the score 24-15. There had been 18 possessions to that point. Meaning the average possession to that point had been less than 3 minutes. M had all 3 timeouts (I think M used their first timeout on Iowa's next punt).

Keeping it at 2 possessions instead of 3:
A missed 2 point conversion means M needs to score 2 times in under 8 minutes, with Iowa running clock - that's not enough time to do so without an onside kick. I know a missed 2 point conversion with no time left means you lose - I get it, but I'd rather start with a more doable option stop and score - rather than stop - score - get onside kick - score.

What if Iowa scores? 27-15 - takes a last second field goal to put us in OT out of the equation. Or forces M to go for a TD on a 4th and long goal rather than take a FG now and scramble for the tying TD. 31-15 - means M needs 2 TDs and 2 2-point conversions... 27-16 and 31-16 are much better options.

Momentum and emotion: A failed 2 point conversion would have to demoralize the team - knowing they scored but still need to score 2 more times...

BWS wanted to something like the Advance NFL stats to show:
WP(extra point) vs. WP(2-pt make)*.4 + WP(2-pt miss)*.6

But isn't really able to pull it off. Based on the comments I've seen on his post and in mgoblog - I am definitely in the minority, but that doesn't change my opinion that M made the right choice.

Should M have gone for 2 down 9?
No free polls

Monday, November 7, 2011

M is who we thought they were - kinda

Michigan is 7-2, back in July I had predicted at this point they would be 6-3. Why don't I feel better about their record than I do?

The offense in general - compare the numbers to last year after 9 games (it is worth noting that the 3-OT games against Illinois is included in the 2010 stats)

First downs218197
Rushing yards24612090
passing yards23621763
Comp %65.253.1

Decrease of 1000 yards of total offense
Loss of over half a yard per play
Way too many interceptions (10 is pretty high btw)

But beyond the numbers, nothing seems to work well consistently in the offense. Last year there were several "go-to" plays - from the standard Denard sweep; to some version of the read option (not that the truly optioned much); the play action hash pass pass; bubble screens.
What have been Michigan's most successful plays this year? Toss it up to Hemingway? They seem to have a collection of plays, not an offense.

Denard is obviosly uncomfortable in this offense. The coaches and DRob himself may tell us differently, but I don't believe them. He's been told the offense needs a drop back passer, so that's what he wants to be - to his and the teams detriment. If it isn't there - quit forcing it and run. He's not punishing the defenses for cheating tight on the receivers. If there's no one open - then he MUST be. How many times was he standing flat footed looking to force a pass to his 2nd or 3rd read? RUN!!!

The Devin package seems to have diminishing returns. There really hasn't been too much success from any of the alignments. And if they do have something new - stop showing it against Minnesota and Purdue and save it for a real opponent...

What's wrong with Hagerup? He was a great punter this year. The suspension really seems to have caused him to take a step back. Was it for PEDs? A huge punt played a role in the LSU-Alabama match-of-the-millenium, Michigan needs to get better there.

Where was Thomas Gordon? Against a power runningback like Coker, M benches one of its leading tacklers and substitutes Woolfolk. Woolfolk was a failure at corner and is not a good tackler. And Gordon doesn;t even get in for a snap?

How many times does Desmond Morgan have to get blown up before he comes out of the lineup? I prefer Hawthorne to Morgan, not sure what the coaches see.

How does the 4th down play not include a run pass option? Denard running >>>> Denard passing, Denard passing with the threat of running >>>>> Denard passing from the pocket.

I had Michigan winning 2 of their final 3 games, I would be surprised (pleasantly) if this happens.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Boneg Ladder

With a couple more 'upsets', the current Boneg Ladder now looks like this:


(everyone except PSU and Indiana)


Using this as a predictor, M will go 2-1 the rest of the season. 

Friday, November 4, 2011

Take that Columbus Dispatch

It has been 1448 days since OSU has beaten Michigan in the Blood Battle

Michigan vs. Iowa prediction

I haven't seen much Hawkeye football this season. We watched the end of regulation and overtime in their match-up with Iowa St. Iowa was certainly not very impressive. Last week they found a way to lose to a horrible Minnesota team. So it would seem I should have some confidence in a Michigan victory. But for some reason I'm not.
Back in July I picked this as a Michigan loss. Michigan has been better defensively than I expected. But the decline in Denard's play still scares me. I see another 2-3 interception game, that will be tough for Michigan to overcome.

Michigan 10 Iowa 12

I'm just saying.

Thursday, November 3, 2011