Monday, October 29, 2012

Kansas State - 1st time trophy holder

For the first time in their history, Kansas State has won the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. The Wildcats kept Texas Tech's reign a short one, with a 55-24 victory.

Two times before they had played for the trophy - both in 1997. They lost to BYU 19-15 on January 1 in the Cotton Bowl and then on October 4, they lost to co-MNC Nebraska 56-26.

The Wildcats also earned the #2 ranking in the BCS this week. To stay on the path for the MNC, they have a somewhat challenging schedule. This Saturday night they host #24 Oklahoma State. They go on the road the following 2 weeks at TCU and at Baylor, before finishing off the regular season hosting Texas on December 1.

They'll be favored in every game, but as WVU can tell you, the favorite doesn't always win in trophy games!

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Boneg Ladder

It is spreading out nicely.  Surprisingly, there aren't any jumble (a beat b, b beat c, c beat a) situations yet.

Here it is:


Using this as a predictor, M would only lose one* of the remaining games (at OSU).  NEB would not lose again and would represent the Legend Division in the Boneg Championship Game (BoChaGa).  The Leader Division would have IN as the representative in the BoChaGa, after they beat WI** at home giving both teams 3-5 conference records.

This week's games:
-WI at IN to see who is the 8th best team in the Boneg and get the inside track on being Leader Division rep in the BoChaGa.
-NEB at MSU.  GO SPARTANS!!! Yes, I said it.
-OSU at IL.  The best on the ladder against the almost worst.  Imagine what would happen if OSU DID play the bottom rung team.  That would be a crazy blowo...oh, wait.
-MI at MN.  Even after what he did to us in 1986 (when I was dressed as Gilligan), I still like Rickey Foggie.
-PSU at PU.  The worst on the ladder against the almost best.  Imagine what would happen if PU DID play the top rung team.  That would be a crazy blowo...oh, wait.
-IA at IN.  How is this bad Iowa team so high on this ladder?


**Even if WI beats IN (which is more likely than the Ladder prediction), then I would expect WI to be only 4-4 when they play in the BoChaGa. ***

***BoChaGa count:  4, now 5.

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Michigan vs. Nebraska Prediction

Looking back at my January predictions for Michigan, I am a perfect 7-0 thus far. Unfortunately, I picked M to lose to Nebraska. I guess I should stay true to my January thesis.

At the time I was thinking the 2012 version of M would likely be a better team than the 2011 squad, but not have as good a record due to the "tougher" games taking place away from Michigan Stadium. While I think playing at Notre Dame and replacing Western Michigan with Alabama are certainly factors in the 5-2 record, I'm not convinced this is a better team.

Certainly offensively the team has taken a step back. Toussaint has not looked like he did in the second half of the season and Robinson has been more of the 2011-at-MSU-Denard than the 4th-quarter-against-Notre-Dame-Denard. I'm not sure how much of the decline can be blamed on losing Molk and Hemingway.

The other side of the ball seems to be about the same even without their best players from last year. It would seem the play of this defense has shown I was off base following the squeaker with Air Force. Mattison might just be a genius...

If I can be wrong about Mattison, I can be wrong about losing to Nebraska...

M 28 N 24

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Nebraska Prediction

Nebraska 34
Michigan 26

Monday, October 22, 2012

Trophy Update - It left West Virginia, but the scores seem the same...

Texas Tech held on to the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy on Saturday - but is seems they may have brought West Virginia's defense with them. Tech held on for a 56-53 triple overtime victory over TCU.

The Red Raiders had taken a 10 point lead with 4:06 remaining but allowed TCU to score - hold them to a 3-and-out and Kick the tying field goal with just 18 seconds left.

The teams swapped TDs in the first two overtimes, but Tech held the Frogs to a field goal in the 3rd. Seth Doege's 7th TD pass was the game winner.

Texas Tech faces perhaps it's toughest match-up of the season as they head to the Little Apple, Manhattan Kansas to face #3 Kansas State.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

North Endzone vs. South Endzone - Defense

My mom passed away in 2003. In May of that year my dad was in town for the 50th anniversary of his graduation from the Michigan College of Pharmacy. Coincidentally, Michigan Stadium was converting form a grass field back to artificial turf. Along with my sister we somehow got into the stadium and were able to place some of my mom's ashes in the South Endzone, just to the right of the goal post (the flag pole side). The turf had not been laid down, so her ashes are actually now covered by the turf.

My dad has asked me to determine if her presence in the South Endzone has helped make that end better defensively than the North End. Here are the results.
DateOppNorth South
9/13/2003Notre Dame00
9/4/2004Miami (OH)73
9/18/2004San Diego St714
9/3/2005Northern Illinois710
9/10/2005Notre Dame710
10/15/2005Penn St.223
11/4/2006Ball St1610
9/1/2007Appalachian St2410
9/15/2007Notre Dame00
9/22/2007Penn St.36
9/6/2008Miami (OH)33
9/12/2009Notre Dame313
10/17/2009Delaware St33
10/24/2009Penn St.1322
9/25/2010Bowling Green210
9/10/2011Notre Dame2110
9/24/2011San Diego St70
9/8/2012Air Force1015
Her endzone is slightly better, just under  over 47% of the points Michigan's opponents have scored have come in the South Endzone.
The only score I can't account for is the 4th quarter score by AJ Harris of Northern Illinois. I can't find any second half highlights from that game and doesn't have a working link to the pdf of the play-by-play. So this is the best I can do for now dad.

Thanks to jiMpossible for finding the M-NIU Michigan Replay from 2005.

Boneg Ladder

No real shake-ups yet, but a little movement this weekend.  Here's what the Boneg Ladder looks like currently:


It is strange how 2 of the top 3 teams and 3 of the bottom 4 teams are all from the Leaders division.  That, of course, means the middle of the pack, other than Wisconsin, is made up of Legends teams.  It is also interesting that the top 2 teams in the Leaders are not eligible to be in the Boneg Championship Game.

Using the ladder as a predictor, M would only lose at OSU and would face 5-3 Wisconsin in the Boneg Championship Game.

Friday, October 19, 2012

M vs. MSU prediction based on historical data

M is 176-49-1 in all games I have attended (all data is for games I have attended unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 117-35-1 in conference games
M is 15-6 against MSU (MSU and OSU are tied for the most victories over M)
                      MSU is actually 7-15 in all games I have seen them play (1987 over Indiana)
M is 147-34-1in Michigan Stadium
M is 19-7 in the 5th game I have attended in a season (4-2 when facing MSU)
M is 39-15 against "State name" State University schools
M is 51-19-1 against "humanish" nicknames
M is 1-1 when ranked 23
M is 126-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 43-9 with #16 as the starting QB
M is 10-3 in the game following Illinois

It's simple when you add it all up...

M 21 MSU 10

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan 30
MSU 16

Monday, October 15, 2012

Trophy Update - Guns Up

It certainly came as no surprise that the Mountaineer defense gave up 49 points to Texas Tech. But scoring only 14 means not only have Geno Smith's Heisman chances taken a hit - the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy has been lost as well.

This is the 3 time the Red Raiders have held the cup. In 1991 TT took the cup from Baylor, kept it with a follow-up victory over Houston then lost the next week to Oklahoma. They went trophy-less until Mike Leach's squad knocked off Texas in a last second victory in 2008. They held for a week with a blowout of Oklahoma State. But then got demolished by the Sooners again 56-20.

Good news Red Raider fans, Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma last week - so if they do lose the trophy to the Sooners, it won't be until 2013! There is, however, as rough stretch coming up for TT. There next 3 games are all against ranked opponents, 10/20 at TCU, 10/27 at Kansas St and 11/3 hosting Texas.

The entire remaining schedule is all in conference - and all those teams also only have conference games remaining - so the earliest Michigan could win the trophy would be in a bowl match-up - it would either be in a BCS forced match-up - seems unlikely that either a Big 12 school would get put into the Rose Bowl or that M would be a second BCS team from the boneg -the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl or Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl. Maybe a B12 team facing Notre Dame in a bowl could be the quickest path for a Michigan Trophy game.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Boneg Ladder


A few small changes, but the top 4 remain without a conference loss.  

Using this is as a predictor, M would only lose the OSU game and would finish 7-1 in the conference.  They would win the Hoke division and would likely face a bad team from the Hope division. 

With PSU and IA playing this week, there will be no more than 3 teams sitting on the top rung after Saturday. 
If PU beats OSU, the resulting jumble will include almost half of the league.  
MN and WI are playing to see who is tied for 8th best team in the league with Indiana.  
M's two conference wins are against the two teams on the bottom rung.  That's a little bit un-encouraging.  

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

M vs. Illinois prediction based on historical data

M is 175-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 116-35-1 in conference games
M is 42-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 22-5 in the 4th game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 146-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium

M is 34-2 in the first seen conference game of the seasonM is 2-0 when ranked #25M is 125-20-1 when their opponent is unranked 
M is 50-19-1 vs. opponents with "humanish" nicknames
M is 67-16 against "state name" University or University of "state name" schools
M is 19-4-1 against teams with school name and nickname starting with the same letter

M is 9-3-1 against Illinois
M is 2-1 when facing a particular team on homecoming for the 5th time

It's easy when you add it all up

M 45 I 24

Illinois Prediction

Michigan 38
Illinois 13

Monday, October 8, 2012

Trophy Update - Week 6

WVU followed up last week's shoot-out with another. The Mountaineers held off Texas 48-45. Their 5 game win streak as trophy holder matches Clemson's streak last season. The last team to win 6 straight was Alabama going from the 2010 BCS Championship game until they lost in early October to South Carolina.

WVU is currently a 4 point favorite over this week's opponent, Texas Tech. That seems low to me, but the Mountaineer defense certainly hasn't impressed.

I think WVU keeps the trophy for at least one more week - setting up a big showdown - likely for the conference championship, with Kansas State.

Every college football fan (ending NSFW)

The ending is the best part - but it is NSFW

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Big Ten Ladder

Big Ten Ladder after games of 10/06/12 (top down method)


Predictions based on ladder (home field is tie breaker):
M will only lose to OSU and will finish 7-1 in conference (9-3 overall).  Clearly, that would be enough to win the Bo Schembechler division.  The qualifying member of the Mike White division would be Purdue with a 3-5 Boneg record.  Of course M would win the Boneg Championship Game and head to the Rose Bowl.

OSU's only loss would be to PSU
PSU's only conference loss would be to IA
IA's only conference loss would be to MI
MI's only conference loss would be to OSU.

Friday, October 5, 2012

M vs. Purdue prediction

I'll keep with my January prediction and pick a Michigan victory, although my confidence is not particularly high.

M was able to pull out a victory in West Lafayette 2 years ago with a team that was (hopefully) not as good as this one.

M has success on the ground and the defense shows up, finally causing some meaningful turnovers.

M 21 P 9

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

cover it live phone test

Purdue Prediction

Purdue 32
Michigan 29

This could be an OT game.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Trophy Update - week 5

Last Saturday WVU kept possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy in the highest scoring match-up in trophy history. The 133 points scored topped the previous record of 115 from Princeton's 115-0 trouncing of Virginia back in 1890.

Teams have combined to score more than 100 points on 9 times in 1455 games, West Virginia and their opponents have gone over 100 three times in their current trophy run (starting with their win over Clemson to take the trophy.)

The 63 points Baylor scored in a losing effort is also a new high for the loser of a trophy game. LSU  scored 48 in a multiple overtime loss to Arkansas in 2007. As some solace to Baylor LSU did go on to win the MNC that year...

As I discussed before the season started, WVU's game this week with Texas is perhaps their toughest thus far. Can the Texas offense score enough to take the trophy from the Mountaineers? Will the Longhorn defense force more incomplete passes than TD passes from Geno Smith?

We'll find out staring at 7pm Saturday night.