Saturday, November 28, 2015

Quick Trophy Update

TCU won in the rain in double overtime 28-21 over Baylor last night, winning back the jimpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

I'll try to have a full update later, but for now Go Blue! Beat the Buckeyes!

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Ohio State Prediction

Jeffrey Dahmer University Buckeyes 25
Theodore Kaczynski University Wolverines 22

Ohio State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 194-58-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I have attended, unless otherwise mentioned)
M is 9-7 vs. Ohio State
M is 17-8 vs. schools from Ohio
M is 11-11 vs. schools with non animal or human mascots
M is 127-42-1 in conference games
M is 163-43-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 76-20-1 in noon games
M is 3-1 after Thanksgiving
M is 9-3 when ranked 12
M is 4-2 vs. teams ranked 8
M is 19-14 vs. teams ranked in the top 10
M is 28-20 vs. teams with a better ranking
M is 17-7 in the 7th game I have attended in a season
M is 4-1 in their head coach's 7th attended game
M is 7-3 when a victory vs. the opponent would be my 10th attended victory over them
M is 0-1 when a loss vs. the opponent would be my 8th attended loss against them
M is 2-1 when facing an opponent for the 17th time
M is 22-12 vs. teams with head coach shares the first name of a Pope

M has played 3 teams 100 times OSU, MSU and Minnesota. In the first 100 games vs. these schools, M had an overall record of  197-89-14. In the games vs. these teams since their 100ths games, M is 3-18. They have however won one-in-a-row.

In both January and September, I counted this game in the loss column. I'm afraid OSU will play 180 degrees differently than they did against MSU. But then again, HARBAUGH.

It's easy when you look at all the numbers,

M 27
OSU 17

Monday, November 23, 2015

Baylor back in possession of jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Baylor toppled undefeated Oklahoma State on Saturday, keeping their conference and playoff hopes alive. But perhaps most importantly taking possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy.

The Bears have had two recent runs with the trophy. They held it for essentially for a season from November 2012 to November 2013, taking it from Kansas State and then losing it to Oklahoma State.

They had a one week reign last season between their victory over TCU and loss to WVU.

Overall Baylor has a 24-12 record in trophy games. This is their 5th time as trophy holder.

Baylor has 2 games left on the schedule. They travel to TCU Friday night and finish the regular season hosting Texas. Both those games will be season finales for their opponents. TCU and Baylor are definitely going to bowl games/playoffs. If Texas were to end up with the trophy, they are still not bowl eligible.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Penn State prediction based on predictions

Back in January I predicted M would finish the regular season at 9-3 - with losses only to Utah, MSU and OSU.
In September, as kickoff vs. Utah approached I back off to 8-4, adding the extra loss against Minnesota or Penn State.

Here's how jiMpossible and I have done so far with our weekly predictions:

UtahU 31-18U 30-28U 24-17
Oregon StateM 27-15M 34-7M 35-7
UNLVM 41-7M 45-3M 28-7
BYUM 30-17M 27-17M 31-0
MarylandM 31-16M 24-3M 28-0
NorthwesternM 24-11M 17-6M 38-0
MSUM 23-20M 14-0S 27-23
MinnesotaM 21-19M 20-14M 29-26
RutgersM 39-13M 31-13M 49-16
IndianaM 36-21M 42-20M 48-41

We both picked the correct winner in every game except MSU. A couple times we've gotten really close.
jiMpossible picked Penn State earlier today. It's time for some separation in our picks. It's time to go with January over September.

M 21
PSU 13

Penn State Prediction

Ty Burell University Nittany Lions 24
Gilda Radner University Wolverines 20

Friday, November 13, 2015

Indiana prediction based on people I know who've seen M lose to IU

Indiana has never had much success in Big Ten football. They've made it to the Rose Bowl once in my lifetime - the 1968 Rose Bowl falling to OJ Simpson' USC Trojans in Pasadena.

Michigan has an overall record vs. Indiana of 54-9. They've only lost to IU twice in my lifetime 27-20 to the 1967 Hoosiers and 14-10 in 1987.

I've seen IU come close several times.
  • I was at the famous 1979 game where a tie seemed imminent until Anthony Carter magic happened. M won 27-21
  • My first trip to Bloomington in 1999 had IU throwing to the endzone for a chance at victory as time expired. M won 34-31
  • The Rich Rodriguez era saw two close victories in 2009 and 2010. Both requiring late Michigan touchdowns and defensive stops to preserve wins for Michigan
  • Even the 2013 game that ended up 63-47 was close for most of the game
I personally know one person who has seen M lose to Indiana - and that is jiMpossible. As that 1987 game was not on TV, very few people have seen M lose to Indiana at all. jiMpossible says his family was able to watch an announcer-less feed of that 1987 game on satellite -so that may increase the numbers a little. But I post there are fewer than 100,000 people alive who have seen Michigan lose to Indiana.

That number shouldn't go up Saturday

M 42
IU 20

Indiana Prediction

Kevin Kline University Hoosiers 21
Lucy Liu University Wolverines 36

Monday, November 9, 2015

Cowboys break Frogs hold on Trophy

Coming into Saturday, TCU had successfully defended the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy 13 times since taking it from WVU last October. Oklahoma State ended that run 49-29, sending the Horned Frogs home, but keeping the trophy in Stillwater.

Original photo from Oklahoma State Football Flickr page

Trophy Notes
  • TCU's streak was the longest since USC defended 25 times after beating Michigan in the 2004 Rose Bowl.
  • Oklahoma State's remaining schedule is at Iowa State then at home against Baylor and Oklahoma.
  • Iowa State has never won the trophy. They are 0-3 all-time with an average game score of 60-10.
  • The Cowboys last held the trophy in November 2013. The took the trophy from Baylor before losing the next week to Oklahoma.
  • Oklahoma State is 4-9 all-time in trophy games, 1-2 as the trophy holder.
  • Their only successful defense was a 34-6 victory over Baylor in 2008.
  • The Big 12 has held the trophy since WVU beat Clemson in the 2012 Orange Bowl.
  • That is 49 straight games and all the possible scenarios for the final three weeks of the regular season will keep it within the conference, bringing it to at least 52 games before bowl/playoff season.

Friday, November 6, 2015

Rutgers prediction based on historical data

M is 193-58-1 in all games I have attended (data is only for games I attended, unless otherwise noted)
M is 0-1 vs. Rutgers
M is 126-43-1 in conference games
M is 10-5 vs. conference teams that weren't in the conference when I started attending games
M is 162-43-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 141-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 4-1 when ranked 16th
M is 21-6 vs. schools with nicknames often including a color (Scarlett Knights)
M is 58-24-1 vs. schools with human-ish mascots
M is 22-5 vs. a head coach whose last name is a common verb
M is 28-9 vs. a head coach whose last name is a common noun
M is 21-7-1 in the 6th game I've seen in a season
M is 7-1-1 when the attendance is more than double the previous game attended (assuming Saturday's attendance is 101,418 or higher

Rutgers played in and won the very first intercollegiate football game. They were the first holder of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.
Rutgers has played the most games 1313, Michigan is third with 1287 (using the Stassen database).
Michigan has the most wins all-time, Rutgers is tied with Iowa State for the 5th most losses.

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 31 Rutgers 13

Rutgers Prediction

Ozzie Nelson University Scarlet Knights 13
Ann B. Davis University Wolverines 39