Friday, September 26, 2014

Minnesota Prediction based on Historical Data

M is 187-53-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 157-37-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 122-38-1 in conference games
M is 14-2 against Minnesota
M is 30-17 when unranked
M is 136-22-1 against unranked opponents
M is 0-1 when facing teams for the 17th time
M is 24-5 in the 4th game I've seen in a season
M is 24-4 against teams with rodent/weasel mascots
M is 22-3 against teams coached by men whose last name is a common verb
M is 23-5 when there is uncertainty about who will start at QB (admittedly there is a lot of looking back with speculation in this number)

M is 34-10 when #7 starts at QB (making an assumption here)

It's easy when you add it all together:

Michigan 16
Minnesota 14

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Minnesota Prediction

Michigan 27
Minnesota 19

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Utah prediction based on Historical data

Michigan is 187-52-1 in all games I have attended (all data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 65-14 in non-conference games
M is 30-16 when unranked
M is 136-21-1 against unranked opponents
M is 157-36-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 1-1 against Utah
M is 18-5-1 against teams with Native American Nicknames
M is 28-1 in the third attended game of the season
M is 3-1 against teams that have represented multiple conferences
M is 21-4-1 against teams that have their nickname start with the same letter as their school name

It's easy when you add it all up...

M 28
U 31

Utah Prediction

Michigan 33
Utah 25

Friday, September 12, 2014

Miami (Ohio) Prediction

Michigan 39
Miami (Ohio) 16

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Miami Prediction based on Historical data

Miami is 1-4 in games I have attended (data is for games I attended unless otherwise specified)
Miami is 0-4 against Michigan
Miami is 1-4 in the state of Michigan
Miami is 0-0 against teams that have won a game (attended or otherwise) before playing
Miami won the first college game I ever attended Nov-8-1975 over winless Western Michigan

Now for the real data

Michigan is 186-52-1 in all games I have attended
M is 64-14 in non-conference games
M is 29-16 when unranked
M is 135-21-1 against unranked opponents
M is 156-36-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 4-0 against Miami (OH) (4-1 against all Miamis)
M is 19-4 against teams with nicknames (at least sometimes - I see you Golden Gophers) containing a color
M is 23-6 in the second attended game of the season
M is 17-3-1 against teams that had been previously coached by an M coach I have seen coach M (i.e Miami, Illinois, Ball St; SD St...)

It's easy when you add it all up...

Michigan 58
Miami 7

Attendance Crisis

For both home games this season groups of 99 tickets have been available the week of the game.

I tend to think this is a perfect storm of indifference:
  • Coming off consecutive poor seasons
  • Only one "successful" season since 2006
  • Horrible home schedule
  • Continual messing with the student tickets
  • DYNAMIC pricing - and just pricing in general
  • Getting shut out at Notre Dame
I predict an announced attendance below 104,000 this week.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Big Game Bob keeps the trophy in Norman

Oklahoma dominated in-state-rival Tulsa 52-7 last Saturday to keep possessions of the jiMpossible-SarcasMike Trophy. The Sooners will likely face a tougher test this week as they host Tennessee.

The Volunteers have had quite a history with the Trophy. They first won it from Auburn in 1938 - they then rattled off 17 wins (only allowing 6 points in the process). That took them to the 1940 Rose Bowl - where they lost to Southern Cal. Included in that run is a win over Oklahoma in the 1939 Orange Bowl.

There next trophy win was in the 1955 finale over Vanderbilt. The ripped off 10 straight wins in 1956 before falling to Baylor in the 1957 Sugar Bowl.

They've also held the trophy for 3 weeks in 1957, one week in 1959, one in 1966, 3 in 1967 and most recently a 7 game run in 1974-75 that I swear ended in a game I remember seeing on TV against UCLA.

Additional losses in to trophy holders:
Alabama in 1942, 1964, 1977, 1986
Ole Miss in 1960, 1962, 1963
USC 1980
UCLA 1985
Nebraska 1998 (could have secured full MNC for Michigan)
Miami 2002
Florida 2007, 2009

I think the trophy will stay with Oklahoma for another week.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

Sooners roll to keep Trophy

As expected Oklahoma rolled over Louisiana Tech to keep the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy. This Saturday they travel to in-state rival Tulsa. The Sooners are a 24.5 point favorite.

The Golden Hurricane held the trophy back in 1996. They won it from Iowa #B1G and retained it against Oklahoma and Colorado State, before losing to BYU.