Sunday, December 27, 2009
Both Herbstreit and Corso like Texas - even without Heisman finalist QB #12
Tech wins the toss and takes the ball
A quick 3-and-out for the Hokies
Texas strikes without much difficulty - 71 yards in 6 plays - capped by a 19 yd strike from #17 to WR#8; PAT makes it 7-0 Texas
Aided by a roughness penalty - Tech answers on an 80 yard 13 play drive
#5 hits WR#19 from 18 yds out and the PAT ties it at 7 with 3 minutes left in the 1st quarter
Tech forces a punt and takes over on their own 23
But #5 finds the wrong jersey as MLB#11 picks off a pass and returns it to the Tech 45
A holding penalty squashes this drive and Texas punts it down to the Tech 13
Tech cannot get anything going; Texas takes over on their own 38
#17 hits 2 big passes (20 & 22 yds) then scores on a 1 yd plunge; Texas 14 VaTech 7 with just over 6 minutes left in the half
A Tech fumble give the Longhorns good field position but 3 incomplete passes lead to a touchback punt
Another Tech turnover on another interception by MLB #11 and it is Texas ball on the Hokie 30
HB#31 scores on 3rd an short making it 21-7 Texas
MLB#11 Texas is becoming #5's favorite target and Texas takes over again this time on their own 29
The half ends with Texas scrambling the FG team on as time expires - poor clock management
The stats show Texas domination; 237 total yards to 141; yet 7 trips to the redzone for Texas yielded only 3 TDs.
If the Hokies can hold on to the ball in the 2nd half they might be able to make a comeback
The winds might be changing - Texas turns it over on a fumble early in the half- Tech ball on the Texas 44
But they can't take advantage and punt it through the enzone for a touchback
Texas doesn't waste much time; marching 80 yds in 8 plays for a 4yd TD scamper by HB#31; 28-7 Texas
After a quick Hokie possession; LOLB #40 picks of a #17 pass and Tech is in business at the Texas 23
#5 finally finds his own team on an 8yd connection with WR#81; cutting the lead to 28-14
#17 forget the interception and marches his team back down for a score - another TD pass this time to WR#9; 35-14 late in the 3rd
Tech answers on a 10 play (including a 4th down conversion early in the drive) 74 yd drive; HB#32 scores from 2 yds out; 35-21 Tech needs a stop or a turnover
They don't get either but Texas does settle for a 19 yd FG by #15 making it 38-21 with under 4 minutes left
Tech gets only 5 yds on a 4th and 10 - this should wrap it up
Texas adds a meaningless FG making the final 41-21
Texas MLB #11 with his 3 picks, 10 tackles and forced fumble is named the MVP
This sets up a final between Texas and Florida
The plan is to play this simulation on the day of the BCS championship game; see you then
Florida has 2 road victories how will things go in the Swamp? How will they play now that their coach has announced he's stepping down after the season.
Herbstreit likes Florida
Corso puts on the YellowJacket head for an upset pick!
Florida wins the toss and defers
19 play 77 yd drive (mostly on hte ground) ends with a 2 yd TD by FB #21; PAT makes it 7-0 Tech
Florida is playing without HB#2 who was injured last week
After a TD pass is called back on a holding penalty, Florida settles for a 28 yd FG by K#38; 7-3 Tech
Tech has a quick 3 and out and we move to the 2nd quarter with Florida in possession at the Tech 32
Seven plays later the Gators are in the endzone on a 9 yd pass from #15 to WR#16; PAT makes it 10-7 Gators
Tech moved the ball into Gator territory but a sack on 3rd down forces a punt
Florida takes over on their own 4
3-and-out give Tech the ball on the gators 44
They drive into the redzone but miss a 3rd down pass and the subsequent 30 yard FG to keep the score at 10-7
Florida moves into Tech territory but their drive stalls, the half ends 10-7 Gators
|Rush/yds||27 -110||4 - 15|
Points to an evenly matched game - 2nd half turnovers or defensive lapses could be the difference
Florida has little success on their first possession a good punt puts Tech back to their own 16
Tech's punter is not as successful as the Gators regain possession at their own 30
Tech FS #22 picks off a #15 pass and Tech takes over on their own 41
Gator defense pushes them backwards they punt on 4th and 18 - Gators take over at their own 25
Yet another 3-and-out - Tech ball at their own 31
A big 22 yd play-action pass from #9 to WR#8 keeps the drive alive
Then HB #20 rips off a 28 yd scamper into the endzone; the PAT makes it 14-10 Tech late in the 3rd
Florida starts promisingly with a 20 yard pass on 2nd down but a penalty later in the drive forces a punt
Tech takes over on their own 12
First play of the 4th quarter ends with Tech facing 4th and inches from their own 20 - they punt - Gators ball on their own 35
Big 13 yd pass on 3rd and 12 keeps the Gators drive alive
two more 3rd down conversions on 6 and 3 yard runs by HB #3 keep moving the chains
#15 drives into the endzone on a 2 yard keeper; PAT makes it 17-14
Gators pick off a #9 pass and take over on the Tech 44 with under 3 minutes left
For whatever reason the Gators throw 3 incompletions leaving 2:23 on the clock for Tech
They take over on their own 20 - their option offense not really a 2-minute drill specialist
CB#5 probably ices the Finals birth with a pick at the Gators 40 with under 2 minutes left
#15 hits HB#3 on 3rd and 8 for a 20 yd gain and that seals it
Florida moves into the first sarcasMike National Championship Game by beating Georgia Tech 17-14
Florida QB #15 finishes 26-46-265 with 1TD and 1 Int and the MVP
Florida will face the winner of the Virginia Tech - Texas game
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
QB - Henne
TB - Hart
WR - Edwards, Manningham, Walker
TE/FB - Ecker
LT - Long
LG - Hutchinson
C - Baas
RG - Schilling
RT - Williams
DE - Woodley, Graham
DT - Branch, Taylor
OLB - Hobson
ILB - Foote, Harris
CB - Jackson, Warren
SS - Adams
FS - Shazor
PK - Epstein
P - Mesko
Ret - Breaston
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Conn #40 Win
ND #47 Win
Bowling Grn #70 Win
IND #92 Win
MSU #60 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
PSU #12 Loss
ILL #88 Win
PU #69 Win
WIS #28 Loss
OSU #9 Loss
Accounting for home field
Conn #40 Win
at ND #47 I have to count this as a loss
Bowling Grn #70 Win
at IND #92 Win
MSU #60 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
at PSU #12 Loss
ILL #88 Win
at PU #69 Win
WIS #28 This would be a win
at OSU #9 Loss
If Iowa loses, they could drop to a point where home field advantage could give M the predicted win. Otherwise, I don't see much more movement. I would really like to be saying best possible scenario is 9-3 rather than 8-4. Because we know the worst possible scenario is much uglier.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
1) Alabama 37 (OT)
5) Florida 40
14) Penn St 13
11) Virginia Tech 31
7) Oregon 17
11) Texas 45
Would it make more sense to play the semis at home venues or in Bowl type games? I'm going to go with home venues to make less travel required.
Nessler says the game can go either way
Herbstreit likes Texas DE #2 and Corso agrees
Oregon runs a fake punt on 4th and 11 at the Texas 44 and only get 4 yards
Texas gets a few first downs and scores on a 48 yd FG by #15; 3-0 Longhorns
Later in the quarter Texas takes advantage of a running into the punter penalty; keeping the drive alive which results in a 3 yd TD run by HB#31; 10-0 Texas
Oregon CB#17 intercepts a pass to start the 2nd qtr - this is followed by a 35yd pass from QB#8 to TE#83
And then by an interception by Texas FS #12
He gets another interception later in the half
This leads to a scoring drive of 7 plays 45 yards and a TD pass to WR#8; Texas 17-0
Oregon seems to be no match for the 'Horns another quick possession for Oregon and then another TD for Texas QB#17 to WR#5; 24-0
the teams throw back to back interceptions (Oregon then Texas); Oregon ball with ~2 minutes in the half
They strike quickly on a 4 yd run by QB#8
Two-point conversion is successful by HB#21; 24-8 Texas
Texas answers with 18 seconds left on a dive by HB#31; 31-8 at the half
The Longhorns have 299 yards of offense in the 1st half and took advantage of 4 Oregon turnovers
Texas makes it 38-8 late in the 3rd qtr
Texas continues to dominate - a late rally makes the final score Texas 45 Oregon 17
Texas QB #17 with his 406 yards passing and 4 TDs is the MVP again playing well for #12
Texas will face Virginia Tech in the semi finals
40 degrees at TCU for a 3:30 eastern kickoff
Herbstreit likes Florida LB #51 and Corso also takes the Gators
Florida won the toss and will take the ball
After a few quick strikes a questionable defensive holding call keeps the Gators drive alive at the TCU 28
3 plays later QB#15 hits WR#83 for 8 yds and the score; missed PAT by #38 (what is it with SEC kickers>) keeps it at 6-0
After a 3-and-out by TCU, the Gators drive and settle for a redeeming FG by #38 from 42 yds out; 9-0 Florida
TCU fumbles the kickoff return - Gators regain possession @ the TCU 26
They get nothing and miss a 48 yd FG
TCU get a couple first downs but is forced to punt
#15 marches Florida down the field and again hits #83 for a TD; PAT makes it 16-0
Defenses start to dominate and Florida takes advantage of better punting to start @ TCUs 48 with 5 minutes to go in the half
They fake a punt on 4th and 7 and P#17 gets tackled for a loss
TCU takes advantage scoring on a 7 play drive with a 3 yd run by HB#18; 16-7 Gators
Florida CB#28 picks off a pass at the TCU 37 with under a minute left in the half
K#38 stays in the highlights by hitting a 27 yarder as the half expires; 19-7 Gators
At the half Florida leads in total offense 231-138 including and air advantage of 191-101
TCU starts poorly throwing a pick to SS#35 and picking up a face mask penalty on the tackle
Gators ball at the TCU 7
Quick TD strike to WR#11; 26-7 Florida
Florida's defense dominates the 3rd quarter and their offense picks up another TD late with a pass to #83 again (his 3rd TD catch); 33-7 Florida
TCU picks off a pass midway through the 4th - taking over at the Gators 27
An incompletion on 4th and 7 might just spell the end for the Frogs
Former Heisman winner throws his 5th TD pass this time to #11 again; 40-7
TCU gets a garbage TD late to make the final 40-14
Florida expected to be playing Alabama next, but instead they get Georgia Tech
The stats tell the story of a blowout
466 yards of offense to 262; 379 yards passing to 185
They win the toss and defer
After the 2 teams trade short possessions, GaTech gets tricky with a 16yd pass from HB#24 to WR#8 moving into 'Bama territory
But the drive ends scoreless after a missed 50yd FG by K#14
LONG drive by GaTech closes the quarter and starts the 2nd; 18 plays and 94 yards ending in a 5 yd pass from QB#9 to FB#36; 7-0 Georgia Tech
Lots of defense played until with Alabama connects on a bomb from QB#12 to TE#84 for a 48 yd TD; 7-7 with 1:16 in the half
That score holds to the half
And only a few seconds longer as CB#28 returns the 2nd half kickoff 104 yards for a TD; 'Bama 14-7
Tech methodically answers with 35 yd FG following a 10 play 40 yard drive all on the ground; 14-10 ' Bama
Tech intercepts and takes over near midfield with 4:11 left in the 3rd qtr
but give it back after a fumble on the Tide 10 yd line
Tech starts the 4th qtr backed up to their own 8 - but FB#21 rambles 92 yds for the score on the option dive! 17-14 Georgia Tech
Alabama answers as they have all season with a 12 play 80 yd drive, they score on a 4 yd pass from #12 to TE #17, but #99 misses the PAT; 20-17 Tide
With under 4 minutes left, Tech goes for it on 4th and short at midfield and converts
But at the 2 minute mark they are more conservative and take a 24 yd FG on 4th and 2 tying the game @ 20
The kickoff is a touchback; Tide ball at their own 20
2 costly penalties a holding and an offensive interference, make it 3rd and 18 at the Tide 25 with 36 seconds to play - looks like OT and it is...
Alabama has the ball first in OT
They score in 2 plays; 20 yards in the air and a 5 yd TD run by Heisman winning HB#22; 27-20 Bama
Tech faces a 4th and goal at the 9 - TD pass from #9 to WR#84; PAT ties it @27
2nd possessions - Tech takes 5 plays to get back in the endzone on a dive by HB#20; 34-27 Yellow Jackets
Alabama answers with a 1 yd strike from #12 to FB#40; tied @34
Now teams must go for 2 if they score a TD
Alabama goes first and settles for a 27 yd FG by #99, taking a precarious 37-34 lead
FB#21 (the game MVP) ends it with a 2 yard blast making the final Georgia Tech 40 Alabama 37
The tabelizer program screwed up, but the most interesting stat is Georgia Tech's 368 yards on the ground!
The Yellow Jackets will face the winner of the Florida -TCU game
It is snowing in Virginia
Herbstreit picks VaTech because of HB#32
Corso picks PennSt
VaTech wins the toss and defers
PSU drives 51 yards down the field in 10 plays resulting in a 39 yd FG by K#36; 3-0 PSU
Vatech gets 1 first down then punts
3-and-out for PSU
But VaTech throws an interception to FS#28; PSU ball on the Hokies 32 yard line
The Lions turn it into 7 points on a TD pass from #17 to WR#8; 10-0 PSU
2nd quarter starts with Tech driving 4 plays in and 50 yards so far
Another interception ends the drive - 22 yd return by SS #4 puts the ball down to Tech's 33
23 yd FG by #36 makes it 13-0 PSU
Later in the half after a PSU fumble, Tech is getting something going
they have a TD called back on a holding penalty
Settle for a 34 yd FG attempt that is missed by K #6; still 13-0 Penn St
Penn State is in hte 2 minute drill, they convert on a 4th and 6 at the Tech 40
Holding penalties on 3 consecutive plays, one a TD really hurts this drive
PSU has it 2nd and goal from the 27...
The series ends on an interception in the end zone by SS #4; score remains 13-0 to the half
Half time stats:
On their second possession of the 2nd half Tech mounts a drive and get a 17 yard TD pass from QB#5 to WR#19; 13-7 PSU
The Hokies follow that up with a 42 yard interception return for a TD by CB#22, the PAY makes it 14-13 Tech
PSU goes nowhere on their next drive and fumbles the snap on the punt; Tech ball at the PSU 17
They settle for a 37 yd FG; 17-13 Tech
They've scored 17 points in just over 10 minutes
No scoring the rest of the quarter, we enter the 4th still at 17-13 Tech
Defenses dominate early in the 4th
Midway though Tech mounts an 11 play 75 yd drive that culminates in a 1 yd TD by HB #20; 24-13 Tech with under 5 minutes left
Paterno punts with 4:10 left 4th and 10 at midfield down by 9???
Gets a 3-and-out
3:37 left Penn State ball at their own 43
They fail on 4th and 5; 3:03 left
Tech goes on 4th and inched from the PSU 41 with 2:25 left - the Lions stop them
This must be their last chance... 4-and-out with 1:37 left
Since PSU is using their timeouts, the Hokies decide to score; 4 yd TD by HB#20 makes it a 31-13 final
Hokies shut down the Penn State offense in the 2nd half
Tech HB#20 filling in after HB#32 was injured (and is out 5 weeks!) finished with 116 yards and 2 TDs for the game MVP.
Vatech will face the winner of the Oregon-Texas game
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Here is the link to join
Set your entry as a confidence pick to have a chance to win.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
1) Alabama 21
9) Georgia Tech 24
8) Ohio State 7
5) Florida 31
12) Central Michigan 28
13) Louisiana State 19
4) Texas Christian 44
11) Virginia Tech 38
6) Boise State 17
14) Penn State 44
3) Cincinnati 15
10) Iowa 17
7) Oregon 48
15) East Carolina 0
2) Texas 40
So the 2nd round is:
GaTech @ Alabama
Florida @ TCU
Penn St @ VaTech
Oregon @ Texas
Everyone likes Texas - big
ECU takes the football after winning the toss
ECU moves the ball near midfield but fumbles
Texas does nothing with a 3-and-out
ECU manages to get tackled in their own endzone for a safety on the punt return; 2-0 Texas
After the teams trade scoreless series, Texas drives 77 yards in 10 plays taking a 9-0 lead on a 15 yard pass from QB#12 to WR#8
ECU has a 41 yard TD pass called back on a holding penalty - the drive ends in a punt
Defenses take control through the middle of the half
Texas scores again another TD pass from #12 to #8 makes it 16-0 with about 4 minutes left in the half
ECU fumble is traded for a Texas interception
punt - punt
Late in half Texas QB breaks his toe! He's expected to be out 3 weeks! Oregon likes their chances either way next week now...
After another ECU fumble, Texas back-up #17 connects on a TD pass to WR #9; 23-0 Texas at the half
Texas HB #2 scores on their first possession of the half making it 30-0
Texas blocks a punt late in the 3rd quarter setting up good field position
It yields a FG making it 33-0
The Texas defense is in control; FS#12 returns an interception to the house making it 40-0 with 5 minutes left
That's how it ends 40-0 Texas
Although QB#17 filled in well against ECU, the loss of QB #12 does not bode well for the Longhorns against Oregon
Everyone favors the Ducks - Herbstreit sees a blowout lead by CB #2
Iowa wins the toss and takes the ball (in this weather???)
After a short penalty aided drive ends in a punt, Oregon strikes quickly on an 87 yard run by HB#9; 7-0 Ducks
Both teams struggle for the rest of the quarter, Oregon misses a FG and Iowa is driving as the 2nd quarter begins
The Hawkeyes have a TD called back on a holding penalty and settle for a 39 yard FG by K #1; 7-3 ducks
Oregon answers late in the half with a 10 play 80 yard drive ending in a 5 Yard TD pass from QB #8 to HB #9; 14-3 Ducks
Early in the 2nd half Iowa FS #30 returns a pick 44 yards for a score; 14-10 Ducks
Oregon comes back with a LONG drive; 20 plays ending in a 21 yard FG by K #25; 17-10 Ducks
A Hawkeye fumble leads to another score for Oregon; 24-10 after an 18 yard pass from #8 to WR #19
Oregon starting to pour it on like the rain now, another TD at the end of the 3rd quarter makes it 31-10
Iowa won't quit they score on a 12 yard pass from #12 to WR #17 tightening it to 31-17 just past the halfway point of the 4th quarter
The Ducks play for keeps a 60 yard bomb on 3rd and 8 makes it 38-17
A late FG for the Ducks is followed by an interception return for a TD by CB #6; 48-17 with under 2 minutes left in Iowa's season
And that's how it ends
Oregon will face the winner of the Texas - East Carolina game
50 degrees but no rain
PSU LB #45 is Herbstreit's key and Corso likes the Lions as well
PSU won the toss and will receive
Apparently without their coach Cincy allows PSU to move down the field in a 10 play 80 yard drive ending in an 11 yard TD pass from QB#17 to WR #83; K #36 misses the PAT and it is 6-0
The Bearcats answer quickly with their own 11 play 78 yard drive and a 3 yard TD run by HB#20, the PAT makes it 7-6 Cincy
PSU QB #17 quickly breaks a 73 yard scramble all the way for the score to make it 13-7 PSU
Cincy gets a 34 yard FG by K#97 late in the quarter to make it 13-10 PSU
Long drive for Penn St ends in a 20 yard FG by F#36; 16-10 late in the half
Cincy's last drive of the half ends in a missed 36 yard FG, still 16-10
They miss another FG on their first drive of the 2nd half, could be tied, instead they still trail 16-10
after a couple empty possessions, Cincy finally makes a FG, the 38 yarder makes it 16-13 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd
PSU scored quickly to widen their lead to 23-13
A Cincinnati fumble leads to another PSU TD pass to WR #27 making it 30-13 half way through the 4th quarter
The Bearcats fumble the kickoff return; and PSU quickly makes it 37-13
More problems Cincinnati muffs a snap back to the punter and it yields another PSU TD; 44-13
A late safety makes the final score 44-15; Penn State
PSU QB #5 is the MVP; 296 yards passing with 4 TDs and another 89 yards and a TD on the ground.
Both Corso and Herbsteit pick VaTech
Boise wins the toss and defers
VaTech marches down the field in an 11 play 80 yard drive culminating in a 17 yard TD pass from QB#5 to HB#32, 7-0 Hokies
After 3 traded 3 and outs the Hokies are driving again until LOLB #30 picks off a pass in the red zone for Boise
Unfortunately, they give it right back and HB #32 scores his second TD on a 2 yard run; 14-0 Hokies
After another quick possession for Boise, VaTech scores again on a 21 yard pass from QB #5 t0 WR #81; score remains 21-0 to the half
Boise gets on the board midway through the 3rd quarter with a 24 yard FG by K #35; 21-3 Hokies
Last play of the 3rd quarter may seal it for VaTech, a 4 yard pass from #5 to TE#8 wakes it 28-3
VaTech tacks on another 10 points, but yields a 103 yard KOR for a TD by Boise CB #1 to make it 38-10
VaTech gets the onside kick
Another late Boise TD makes it 38-17
VaTechs out gained Boise 676 to 358. The WAC defense just couldn't handle the ACC...
the Hokies will face the winner of the Penn St - Cincinnati match-up
Saturday, December 12, 2009
#1 OSU v Pac Ten #1 Oregon
#2-3 PSU v SEC #3 LSU.
slight edge Big Ten
#2-3 IA v ACC #1 Ga Tech
#4-5 Wis v ACC #4-5 Miami
#4-5 NU v SEC #7-8-9-10-11 Auburn
#6-7 MSU v Big Twelve #4-5
#8 MN v Big Twelve #8-9
slight edge Big Ten
I came up with 3-2-2, with two of the wins being ever so slight. That means a 4-3 would be a good showing, 2-5 not really surprising. Anything worse would be sad.
Now based on CFRC rankings (which doesn't necessarily prove how bad the B10 isn't, but it should stop everyone from being surprised when the B10 doesn't fare well)
#9 OSU v 6 Ore
#12 PSU v #11 LSU
#14 Iowa v #10 Ga Tech
#29 Wis v #13 Miami
#57 NU v #36 Aub
#60 MSU v #26 Tx Tech
#62 MN v #71 Iowa State
Yes, that's 1-6
As far as the current Vegas odds go, other than PSU being favored over LSU, they go along with cfrc rankings, making a 2-7 record for the Big Ten.
To summarize, even if the Big Ten does what it is supposed to do based on position within relative conference, it is likely the rep of the Big Ten will not change. Most importantly, of course, the teams at the top need to pull off some wins. We really need the conference to start improving in the eyes of the pollsters so the 11-1 2011 Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team can go to the BCS Championship game.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Both Corso and Herbstreit like TCU
LSU wins the toss and wants the ball
After a decent return, RB#32 rips off a 23 yard run on the first play from scrimmage, add 15 yards for a face mask penalty and it is LSU ball on the TCU 49
10 play 68 yard drive ends with a 5 yard run by RB # 32; 7-0 LSU
LSU stops TCU 3 and out but roughs the punter...
the second chance yields a matching TD on a 2 yard run by TCU HB #18; 7-7
LSU fumbles quickly back to TCU
2 plays to a quick 1 yard TD plunge by HB #18; 14-7 TCU
LSU marches down the field but Miles goes for it on 4th and inches on the TCU 4 yard line and TCU LE #95 blows the play up for a 5 yard loss
13 play drive (including the end of the 1st quarter) ends with another TD for HB #18; TCU 21-7
LSU gets a 36 yard return from WR #1, tack on 15 yards for a face mask
Calamity strikes LSU as TCU scores on a 73 yard interception return for a TD by CB #10; 28-7 TCU
He does it again on the next drive a 45 yard interception return for another TD! 35-7 TCU
Late in the half LSU finally gets it back together, scoring on a 2 yard run by QB #2; 35-14 TCU
That pretty much takes us to half time; still 35-14 TCU
LSU gets a quick turnover via interception in on TCUs first drive of the 2nd half. They take over on their own 43
They settle for a 210 yard FG by K #6; 35-17 TCU leads
They trade the ball, but a great punt by LSU leads to a safety; 35-19; TCU
Early in the 4th LSU converts a 4th and 10, with a 20 yard pass from #9 to TE #18
Only to turn it over via interception at the TCU 7
TCU wants to end this #14 passes them down the field completing 6-7 for the 93 yards - finishing with a 19 yarder to WR #85; they miss the PAT; 41-19 TCU
TCU adds a late FG, LSU can't mount much of an attack
Final score TCU 44 LSU 19
CB #10, with his 2 interceptions returned for TDs, is the player of the game
TCU will host Florida in the 2nd round
Herbstreit likes Florida big and Corso puts on the Gator Head
CMU defers - Florida ball
3 and out x2
Florida takes advantage of having a better punter in the trade and starts at their 41
33 yard run by HB #2 and a PAT makes it 7-0, Gators
Another 3 and out for the Chips
11 play drive for Florida ends in a 22 yard K #38 FG; 10-0 Gators
CMU has a good drive going - first and goal at the 5 - holding penalty on LT #74 - could be put a damper on the drive - Nope TD pass from #13 to HB #35 tightens it to 10-7 Gators
that's where the 1st quarter ends
The Gators gamble on a 4th and 6 near midfield fails - Chips ball at the Gator 47
7 play drive culminates in 18 yard TD pass from QB#13 to WR #5, is this a shocker in the snow? CMU 14-10
Late in the half CMU culminates another long drive with a 13 yard pass from #13 to WR #27 21-10 CMU with 1:06 left in the half
Gators move the ball but the half ends near midfield
the snow hurts CMU as they fumble the 2nd half kickoff -Florida ball on the Chips 25
The Gators need only 5 plays to score on a 5 yard pass from #15 to WR #83; 21-17 CMU
Later in the quarter, the Gators go back on top 24-21 following a 9 play 63 yard drive
Teams trade punts and the 3rd quarter ends still at 24-21 Gators
Early 4th quarter scoring pass from Gator QB #q5 to WR #11, builds the lead to 31-21
CMU down 10 with 3:19 to go starts at their own 10 - not looking good
The Chips score on a 7 yard #13 pass to WR#5 with 47 seconds left; PAT makes it Gators 31-28
Time for the onside kick - we know they pulled one off against MSU earlier this season, can lightning strike twice?
Nope, Florida CB#4 recovers the kick
And the Final in the snow is Florida 31 CMU 28
Great game; Florida had 484 yards of offense, CMU had 390
Florida QB #15 is the Player of the Game
They'll face the winner of the LSU vs TCU game
Herbstreit highlights CB #5 from OSU as his key player
Corso puts on the Brutus Buckeye head to make his pick
Tech wins the toss and decides to take the ball
A nice drive ends in an interception by OSU safety #4 at his own 33 yard line
OSU fumble gives it back to Tech at the Buckeye 43
But they get it right back after a screen is intercepted by OSU RE #90; Bucks ball on their 47
First quarter ends scoreless, but Tech is on a decent drive 7 plays so far to the OSU 44
Five more plays and a 27 yard run by HB #20 gives Tech the lead, and PAT makes 7-0
After the teams trade fruitless possessions OSU starts a 2:00 drill drive from their 35
8 play drive ends in a TD pass from QB#2 to WR#82 with 5 seconds left; the PAT ties it at 7
OSU QB #2 starts the 2nd half with an interception returned to the OSU 24 yard line by CB #2
14 yard TD pass from Tech QB #9 to WR #84 makes it 14-7 Tech
Next Tech possession ends in 48 yard FG by K#14 17-7 Tech late in the 3rd quarter
The Bucks get stuffed on a 4th and 3 near mid field - very un-Tressellike; early in the 4th but the Bucks are down 2 scores
13 Play Tech drive ends in a 4 yard run from HB #3 -the bucks can't control the triple option 24-7 Tech leads
OSU QB #2 fumble will probably seal the deal
And it ends Georgia Tech 24 - OSU 7
Tech was 9-13 on 3rd downs and held OSU to 28 yards rushing
HB #20 is the Player of the game
Tech will travel to Alabama for their next game
73 degrees at game time
Alabama won the toss - defers to 2nd half
teams trade 3 and outs on first series
First down run for Troy HB #8 but he fumbles - Bama ROLB #98 recovers
6 play 41 yard drive culminates in a TD pass from Bama QB #12 to WR#80; PAT makes it 7-0
Another 3 and out for Troy
Bama gets one first down the punts down to the 2 yard line Troy HB #32 is tackled in the endzone for a safety; 9-0 Alabama
Bama's drive stalls - end of the 1st quarter; Still 9-0
Bad series for Troy - false start, holding penalty then a sack forces another punt.
Alabama Fumbles near midfield - Troy takes over
After a quick 20 yard strike - Troy fumbles it back to Alabama at the 25
No damage - Bama punts it back
A 3-and-out for Troy ends the half with the Score Alabama 9; Troy 0
Halftime stats are pretty even - neither team has been able to run the ball much - both teams right around 100 yards total offense.
Bama CB #48 stats off the 2nd half with a 48 yard kick return to Alabama's 46
After a couple first downs, Alabama settles for a 36 yard FG from K #99 to take a 12-0 lead
Another Troy 3 and out and a good return gives Alabama the ball at Troy's 41 yard line
Again Alabama struggles offensively but gets a 41 yard FG - score is 15-0
Troy has a decent series driving to the Alabama 49, but fails on 4th down.
After trading the ball a few times - an interception by Bama SS # 27 probably puts it away late in the 4th quarter
Saban is apparently an ass as Alabama doesn't take a knee but scores on a 2 yard run by HB #22 as time expires - the PAT is missed - final score 21-0, Alabama
Herbstreit calls it "an absolute ugly offensive performance"
Alabama QB #12 was named the player of the game.
Alabama will take on the winner of the Georgia Tech - Ohio State game
Monday, December 7, 2009
I haven't updated the full list to include this yet. I'll try to get to it later today...
Sunday, December 6, 2009
16 Troy (auto Bid Sun Belt)
@ 1 Alabama (Auto Bid SEC)
9 Georgia Tech (auto Bid ACC)
@8 Ohio St (Auto Bid BigTen)
5 Florida (at large#1)
@ 12 Central Michigan (Auto Bid MAC)
13 LSU (At-Large #4)
@4 TCU (Auto bid MWC)
11 Va Tech (at-large # 3)
@6 Boise St (Auto Bid WAC)
14 Penn State (at-large #5)
@3 Cincinnati (Auto Bid Big East)
10 Iowa (at-large # 2)
@7 Oregon (Auto Bid Pac-10)
15 East Carolina (Auto Bid C-USA)
@2 Texas (Auto Bid Big 12)
Since Florida had to face a conference champ on the road - CMU moved up to 12th from the 14th spot, this moves LSU to 13th, and PSU to 14th.
I'll use EA Sports NCAA 2010 to play off the games starting this week.
Good luck to all!
When I first read the portion of the transcript mentioning the firing, I thought it appeared he must have something there, and really does have sources. Then, when I listened to the entire 'rant' my opinion changed completely.
Defran really is dumb. His arguments are weak, based on non-fact, he stretches the truth and the relationship between things to prove an argument. Simply, he is dumb. And his comments about the firing came in the middle of the ran and just came and went without any fanfare. For a prepared statement, the most important thing he mentioned was buried. Showing he is a bad writer, too.
I, now, 100% don't buy it. (i was at 60% not buying previously).
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Does calling a timeout reset the 10 second count? Should it? I guess calling time on an inbound resets the 5 second count, but then it doesn't reset the shot clock. Why the inconsistency?
Thursday, December 3, 2009
DeFran claims to have heard from 3 sources that all of the new AD choices have their own coach in mind, and that Martin will fire RR for cause (Practice violations) in January (I haven't listened - just paraphrasing MVictors quotes)
Since I'm not a DeFran fan it is tough for me to think this has any chance of being correct. I don't think he's ever been a fan of RR, but I don't know why he would create sources and stories that weren't there.
If only Dave Chaffin was still there to get to the bottom of this.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Interesting because Stoops is going through the same thing this year with ND. And RR may have been less than honest. Or maybe not. I don't remember when things went down back then.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
I have to say, I like Michigan's chances in any of those games.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
Michigan should/would have beaten Creighton in regulation had they shot a decent percentage from the FT line.
I don't doubt this team is better than last year - they're starting a scholarship player at point guard for instance - but they're not good enough to give away points...
Michigan 75, Marquette 68
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Conn #47 Win
ND #48 Win
Bowling Grn #74 Win
IND #89 Win
MSU #57 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
PSU #12 Loss
ILL #85 Win
PU #66 Win
WIS #32 Loss
OSU #9 Loss
Accounting for home field
Conn #47 Win
at ND #48 I have to count this as a loss
Bowling Grn #74 Win
at IND #89 Win
MSU #57 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
at PSU #12 Loss
ILL #85 Win
at PU #66 Win
WIS #32 This would be a win
at OSU #9 Loss
Again. I'll take it. ND could become a win by the time the season ends. We'll see if M moves much without playing. With last week's game moving M only one spot, I'm thinking it isn't likely there will be much movement.
Monday, November 23, 2009
I believe that the last couple weeks have seen M rise throughout the week as polls are added. We'll see how it goes. EXCITEMENT.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
It was really funny how you got all passive aggressive with Jimpossible under your breath after he asked you to watch your language. "Don't hurt yourself sitting on your hands not cheering," was one of your lines. (in addition to calling him an "A^%%$^#" not quite under your breath)
The following are not examples of cheering:
- Teaching your grade school children to shout "You Suck" at the end of the 4th down Temptation (I will note that I don't recall hearing them ever yell it, so kudos to them on their good behavior.)
- Yelling "F-O...F-O" during OSU's O-H...I-O
- Oh so subtly yelling how "TY-relle" Pryor is not a "Pro-prospect" - especially after he gains 14 yards and a first down
- And what was the deal with "TY-relle?" I think there may be some latent racism there - you may want to look into that.
- Sarcastically yelling at OSU fans that you hope they don't kill themselves on the way home. Two points here - the majority of the fans leaving early (including you and your son) were Michigan fans, and really, hoping for injury of people who cheer for a different team than you, classy...
- Yelling the C word at two OSU college girls for singing that they "don't give a damn about the whole state of Michigan." Is that song so offensive that you have to stoop to that? (You're right you didn't do this yesterday, you did it 2 years ago, but I didn't have a blog then!)
- Telling an OSU fan "F%$* you" because he flipped you off - again after you told him you hope he got injured on the way home. Amazing how quiet you got when he asked you to come outside with him and settle it. Believe me NO ONE was going to be on your side of that fight.
- Booing OSUs band
- Yelling that about how their song (7 nation army-which the Stadium PA system has played all season and the M fans have "sung" to) has no words.
- Yelling about Buckeye fans only being able to spell words with 4 letters
- Yelling about a bad read by "TY-relle" causing a loss rather than actually cheering for the great play senior, Brandon Graham, in his final game made in his desperate attempt to somehow give Michigan a victory.
We received a letter from the ticket department, explaining that it is likely our seats will move up or down a few rows. Here are my two main wishes:
- I hope we move 5 rows in the opposite direction you do, putting us 8-9 rows apart
- And I hope you get moved a few seats to the left so you're right next to the opposition fans. Either your cowardly nature will shut you up, or they will physically.
sarcasMike (but in all honesty, no sarcasm here - you're an idiot)
Friday, November 20, 2009
That is really surprising to me. I can't help but read it as him waffling because of the likelihood of Harbaugh coming here soon...
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Here's a photo from the 1939 M-OSU game that isn't being rebroadcast on ESPN or BTN
So far I've watched parts of the 1995 game, the 1979 game and the 1977 game.
Potentially interesting tidbits:
Entering the 1979 game M was ranked 122 out of the 139 1-A teams in net punting. How were there 139 1A teams in 1979??
In the 1977 game they showed video introductions of the offensive starters in the first series of the first half and just had graphics of the defensive starters; then reversed it in the 2nd half. I'd forgotten they used to do that - I think they should bring that back. Why does espn do that stupid thing where they only show the "game breakers" and only scroll the full starters at the top?
Apparently Woody Hayes got bumped by someone prior to the start of the 1977 game. Bill Fleming asked him about it at halftime - live on camera - and he kind of shrugged it off like he didn't feel anything. Of course later in the game he tried to punch an ABC cameraman after a Rod Gerald fumble.
M got badly out gained in the 1977 game. Now that I think about it I remember my mom saying that was payback for the several years in the mid 70s when M out gained OSU but lost. You go Alice!
Form the 1995 game, what was the deal with the uniform numbers? Biakabatouka's 2 and 1 are so far apart - weird! I had forgotten how close that game got. Looking back I thought M was always in control. But they had to grind out a couple drives at the end and still had the Woodson interception to seal it at the end.
I have the 1999 game set up on the DVR tomorrow. I honestly do not remember anything about that game. I see M won 24-17, interesting...
M is 133-30-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 8-5 against OSU - the 5 losses to OSU is the most to any one team (8-4 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 3-0 when facing a team for the 14th time
M is 111-30-1 against conference opponents
M is 7-1 when unranked facing a ranked opponent
M is 3-1 against the 9th ranked team (0-1 vs. OSU)
M is 8-0 when facing a coach for the 5th time
M is 84-22 on artificial surface
M is 25-7-1 in the final home game of the year
M is 9-7 against teams with non animal kingdom (includes humans) based nicknames
M is 3-3 when my dad has been on the field prior to kickoff (3-0 when he attends the same game with a blood relative)
M is 2-1 in their head coaches last game (just in case...)
Although the numbers seem to point one way, I don;t think I can agree...
I know the season isn't over yet, but I decided to look forward to next season (for obvious reasons) and do it again.
M is currently #78. That means M improved 19 spots (not 40). I am still going to use 40 spots, because I want to be positive about next season. At # 38, here is what would happen (home field will be applied later.
Conn #52 Win
ND #39 Win
Bowling Grn #79 Win
IND #83 Win
MSU #51 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
PSU #16 Loss
ILL #86 Win
PU #74 Win
WIS #21 Loss
OSU #9 Loss
Accounting for home field
Conn #52 Win
at ND #39 That would be a loss
Bowling Grn #79 Win
at IND #83 Win
MSU #51 Win
Iowa #14 Loss
at PSU #16 Loss
ILL #86 Win
at PU #74 Win
WIS #21 This would be a win
at OSU #9 Loss
I will try to do this throughout the rest of the season and finally after the bowls are played. I expect M to drop a little after this weekend, then it will be interesting to see where everyone else moves. Wisconsin, with a good bowl victory could move high enough for me to take that home field win out. Other than that, I don't see any change in the predictions. We'll see.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
The second thing is that I really want him gone. I don't know if I want him fired, or as you said are hoping for minimal punishment, but enough to have to let him go, or what, but I really don't want him at M anymore. I don't know when I started not liking him, but I know it was prior to the first game last year. I think what disappoints me most about my feelings about it is NOT that I am not supporting M by not supporting the coach (as many people say), but I can't say for sure that I would feel the same way if he was finishing his second 9-3 season. Hopefully, I would.
But, of course, he isn't 18-6. He is 8-15. And I am not convinced he is ever going to bring this program to the promised land of challenging for BCS Championships every year. But as Sam and Ira say, we don't know where it is going from here, RR stay or go. WHICH IS ANOTHER THING about him. Why can we not know this? If nearly anyone else had been hired, we would likely know this. I'm not saying things would be a lot better, but I do think they would be better. And I think the reason why is simple. RR is stubborn.
There was an MGoBlog paragraph mentioning another blog or something (I think) talking about how you have to buy in 100% to the spread system or you just have a bad offense running some bad spread option plays. I know that is one of the excuses pro RR people use to account for last year. You have to buy into it 100%, can't use a hybrid system, etc. etc. For argument purposes, I will assume that the spread is that kind of offense (though I don't know if I buy it). If that really is the case, unless RR or any other coach was a 100% lock, we should have avoided this kind of spread coach (from what I understand, the Brian Kelly spread is more straight forward running rather than the option game). If it was going to be such a specialist type of system, why would we do it? We know we can get talent. We just need a coach to take advantage of it (the big criticism of Lloyd). Why would we need to have a coach that needs to be doing something DIFFERENT, too? (we wouldn't have tried a triple option offense, would we?) Maybe the answer there is that they COULDN'T get anyone else. Martin may have really messed up on that one.
I heard from more than one place (and one source had it come from a college coach) that it is an easier transition from spread to pro-style than the other way. So, the growing pains into RR should have been seen. Also, that should alleviate some of the growing pains back the other way if someone, say Harbaugh, would come over.
Speaking of a transition like that, I know that there isn't a typical pro-style QB on the roster (well, a good one), but if a Harbaugh (for example) came next year, he would find a way to use the QBs. I think he would use his imagination to do things with other players, etc. He might even run some wildcat. Why didn't RR use his imagination? It really was "let's run the spread' all the time. Even the trickiest trick plays for RR seem less tricky than something Lloyd would do. I don't get it.
Even though I am saying all of this, I know that it is safer to NOT fire him. Even though I don't think he is going to improve significantly during his time at M, if you fire him and the firing is wrong, it is much worse than if you keep him and that is wrong. We are a near .500 team. The wrong replacement may go down from there.
And, if Karsch is right, and I think that he is, if Harbaugh were hired, or Miles or maybe a few other coaches with M connections that coach would get a longer time to turn things around than RR, mainly because he would be an M man.
And going back to the transition, I think the transition would be smoother with any M man because there would be some return to the M traditions. Most importantly, I think yearlong captains need to come back. Enough said on that or I'll be accused of being an old fuddy-duddy.
I heard someone say that M fans don't have the patience to be a Nat Champ contender. That made me say to myself, "we shouldn't have to...". We weren't that far from a Nat Champ. 9-4, with a couple close games is only a couple games and a couple plays away. 3-9 is a little farther. Really how long DO we have to wait for RR to bring M to a BCS bowl? Can the RR supporters guarantee in his 5th year? That is the soonest I see it now. And I don't expect it then.
I understand RR has had some personnel issues on this team. I'll give him some slack for last year, but the D is so bad this season, there had to be a way to fix that. He has had two recruiting classes and there was an entire offseason to make moves of O players to D if that is what was necessary (he thinks it is now). I just don't think that the team's talent level is worse than Indiana (almost lost at home), Illinois and PU. I may be wrong, of course, but that is how I see it.
Also, I am tired of the excuse of 3 D coordinators in 3 years. SO? All DCs teach that players should do fundamentals. Maybe the 4th one should emphasize it more.
The latest report on the self-reporting issue was interesting in that there is a lot of interpretation of what it means. Mistakenly, I listened to Sam and Ira and they (surprise) think it shows that someone from the inside leaked that report to the Freep which led to the big Freep story before the season. Though this may be true, why didn't the Uni say something about it the day the Freep story came out. "We know about the allegations. We did our own report on portions of what the Free Press story mentions." etc. And if that report was out there and RR still had his crying press conference, something seems a little insincere.
I believe that there could have been someone from inside leaking something. One thing M has been fortunate about in the past million years is that the insiders (the athletic dept staff, former players with influence, rich alums) have generally been on the same page on the football coach. Even when there were some Lloyd haters out there, I never heard anything about an insider wanting him to be fired. But, with RR, that has changed. From before he was hired, there was a split (remember the Les Miles fiasco) and since his hire and especially since the bad record there is a canyon. In the long run, how can you consider keeping him. That split will always be there. It will be very difficult to be successful when you don't have everyone on the same page.
I like to listen to Karsch and Anderson when it comes to M stuff. It appears that Karsch likes RR, which is understandable, he does a lot of work with him, but he isn't so blind as to think RR will last past this season, even if there is no NCAA punishment.
My ultimate hope at this time would be for M to be putting out feelers right now. Harbaugh would be my first choice. I don't know why other than I think he is a Michigan man, he has shown he can win, and I would hope that watching him coach would bring that feeling I used to get when I watched him play. If they get a bite, then I say cut the losses on RR, and start over. I don't care what it costs (they'll pay what they need, anyhow). I don't care how many of RR's WRs leave. I only care about caring. About M football. And feeling excited about Saturday, not because I'm going to go to Fleetwood Diner, but because there is a good football game.
This Saturday there is not. And RR is the main one to blame (I think I wrote something similar last year)
I will cheer for his teams as long as he is here. I hope that isn't too long.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
As strange as it sounds, if the "practice scandal" is enough to get him fired, it would at least alleviate the "M didn't give him a chance" problem, and potentially keep some of the players in the program as well - they could also blame RR for their losses.
Obviously, if this were to occur, I'd somehow want the scandal to be enough to get him fired yet not enough to elicit any "real" punishment from the NCAA. What would I do to my database regarding forfeited wins? Also, we'd need to have a coach basically already signed. And I think that coach needs to be Jim Harbaugh.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Why is this important? M hasn't had consecutive years where the opponent outscored them since 1958-1959. And we know this team likes to break streaks.
M's record for season following two consecutive losing seasons (adjusted blah blah): 10-3
M coaches record in 3rd season at M (adjusted): 11-2
M coaches improvement (in wins) from 2nd season to 3rd season at M: just over 1 game
Saturday, November 14, 2009
I'm not sure whether I figure this will be a way to predict what will happen next year (though that is what I'm going to do) or whether it will give us an idea of whether RR will survive another 2 seasons, etc., but I thought it would be interesting to do a comparison and see what then happens with the program and how long the coach lasts at the uni.
I'm not counting 6-6 as a winning record or a losing record
Only I-A teams are being checked. For teams that have changed to I-A recently, I'm only using I-A info.
1990, 6-5, Jim Young
1991, 4-7, Bob Sutton
1992, 5-6, Bob Sutton
After 1992, Army went 6-5, then went 5 of then next 6 without a winning record. In 1996, Army pulled out a 10-2 season.
Result: 3rd season 6-5, one game better than prior season. Coach lasted for 9 seasons.
2005, 7-6, Gary Barnett, Mike Hankwitz
2006, 2-10 Dan Hawkins
2007, 6-7 Dan Hawkins
After 2007, Colorado went 5-7 and is currently3-7
Result: 3rd season 5-7, 1 1/2 games worse than prior season. Coach lasted at least 4 seasons.
1989, 8-4, Steve Spurrier
1990, 4-7, Barry Wilson
1991, 4-6-1, Barry Wilson
Wilson only lasted 4 seasons, his best record in 1991
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 1/2 games worse than the previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons
1991, 11-1, Bill Lewis
1992, 5-6, Steve Logan
1993, 2-9, Steve Logan
ECU went 7-5 the next year, having winning seasons 6 out of the next 7 years
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 11 seasons
1991, 8-5, Bobby Ross
1992, 5-6 Bill Lewis
1993, 5-6, Bill Lewis
Lewis didn't finish the 1-10 1994 season
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 4 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted less than 3 seasons
1999, 7-4, Kim Helton
2000, 3-8, Dana Dimel
2001, 0-11, Dana Dimel
Dimel went 5-7 in his 3rd and final season at Houston
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons
1999, 7-4, Chris Tormey
2000, 5-6 Tom Cable
2001, 1-10, Tom Cable
Idaho increased their win total by one each of the next two seasons
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, one game better than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons
2002, 7-5, Guy Morriss
2003, 4-8, Rich Brooks
2004, 2-9, Rich Brooks
After a 3rd losing season Brooks has had winning records every year since.
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, one game better than previous season. Coach last at least 7 seasons
1994, 6-5, Chuck Stobart
1995, 3-8, Rip Scherer
1996, 4-7, Rip Scherer
Scherer Never had a winning record with Memphis
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons.
1997, 9-4, Dennis Franchione
1998, 3-9, Rocky Long
1999, 4-7, Rocky Long
It took Long a couple more years to reach a winning record, but he has had all but 2 since then.
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 1/2 game better than previous season. Coach lasted at least 12 seasons
2000, 7-4, Jim Grobe
2001, 1-10, Brian Knorr
2002, 4-8, Brian Knorr
After the 4th year of a bad team, Knorr was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, two games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons
1993, 6-5, Fred Goldsmith
1994, 5-6, Ken Hatfield
1995, 2-8, Ken Hatfield
Hatfield went on for a long time with Rice enjoying a handful of winning seasons
Result: 3rd season, 7-4, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 12 seasons
San Jose State
2000, 7-5, Dave Baldwin
2001, 3-9, Fitz Hill
2002, 6-7, Fitz Hill
After 4 bad seasons, Hill was gone
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons
2001, 9-3, Ty Willingham
2002, 2-9, Buddy Teevens
2003, 4-7, Buddy Teevens
Another 4-7 season is all Teevens had
Result: 3rd season, 4-7, same as previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons
1991, 7-4, Jim Wacker
1992, 2-8-1, Pat Sullivan
1993, 4-7, Pat Sullivan
A couple good years and a couple bad followed
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 2 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons
1992, 8-4, Bill Dooley
1993, 2-9, Jim Caldwell
1994, 3-8, Jim Caldwell
One winning season for Caldwell
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 8 seasons
1999, 7-4, Dana Dimel
2000, 1-10, Vic Koenning
2001, 2-9, Vic Koenning
Another 2 win season and Vic was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, 1/2 game worse than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons
I could do a lengthy analysis, but I don't want to. Instead I will just do averages
Average 3rd season (based on 12 game regular season): 4-8
Average change from 2nd to 3rd season: 0 games (less than 1/6 of a game better than the previous season)
With the above, and knowing the M has a I-AA school on the schedule next year, 5-7 is my early prediction.
Average length of time the coach stays (will add a couple years for active coaches): 6 years (adding the years for active coaches didn't change the rounded off average)
I don't think 5-7 will keep RR here for 6 years, so something above has to give.
Now, my in-depth analysis: If history is any indication, it doesn't look good.
Incomplete, of course.
2nd and 10, gain of one on a scramble
3rd down, a good scramble called back on an illegal block
3rd down and long, a LOOOOOONNGGG bomb again (why not?). Interception.
If the KO return was to the 25-35, the long bomb on first would have been OK. But, starting in the hole and doing it? Huh?
And what happened to the success of the last drive?
Remember, the D is stopping nothing so getting points or at least keeping the ball is going to be hugely beneficial.
Things like that, and they happen every game, is why I dislike RR's play calling.
Wis 38 M 20
I want to personally thank RR and the M football team for (hopefully temporarily) sucking my love for college football out of me.
Friday, November 13, 2009
IMO Forcier has played pretty well this season. He's certainly made some mistakes. But I feel the majority have been "I can get away with these because I'm better than you" mistakes not "I don't know what I'm doing" or "I'll never be better than this" mistakes.
It would be a set back, both for the program and for RR, if Forcier were to transfer. As a Michigan fan I hope Gardiner is the equivalent of 2005 Vince Young or 2008 Colt McCoy, but I think that is a stretch for a true freshman.
As for the game Saturday, I hope I'm wrong, but:
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Of course, that doesn't answer the question of WHO would be better than RR in the next few years.
I'm still sticking with the prediction that RR will last 6 years and leave on his own.
Jeremy: .....Do I think Rich Rodriguez should be fired following a 5-7 season? I'm indifferent. I have no doubt that Rich Rodriguez is the best coach for the 2010 team, so a large part of me wants to see what he'll do with the roster that he has crafted and the system that he has put in place. At the same time, I have zero faith that Rich Rodriguez will meet out expectations of building a championship program (needless to say, Michigan MUST compete for a Big Ten title next year and, at the very least, MUST be playing on January 1st, 2011). And why should I? After Michigan beat Florida in the Capital One Bowl with Rich Rodriguez on the sidelines, the 2008 team was supposed to be led by Ryan Mallett, Mario Manningham, Adrian Arrington, Justin Boren, etc. They all left. Rodriguez struck out on Pryor, and was too stubborn to fit the system around his quarterback(s). The team, as it was constituted in week one of 2008, was supposed to be a six-win team (although many at WCBN predicted that the team would win seven or eight games). Michigan lost to Toledo (3-9), Purdue (4-8), and Northwestern (at home) and finished the season 3-9. This year, Michigan was supposed to take a step forward, certainly play in a bowl game, and compete with the middle of the Big Ten. Michigan has one Big Ten win and is in danger of missing a Bowl game for the second consecutive year. Rich Rodriguez has yet to prove to me that he can meet expectations--let alone exceed them. So fire him, keep him, whatever. Just please tell me that this school has a contingency plan when it's time to begin competing for a national championship again.
Starting with the initial rankings we would have (assumptions are Iowa is BigTen Champ, Florida is SEC champ):
16 Troy @ 1 Florida; 9 USC @ 8 LSU; 13 Oregon @ 4 TCU; 12 Pitt @ 5 Cincinnati; 2 Alabama @ 15 CMU; 10 Iowa @ 7 Georgia Tech; 14 Houston @ 3 Texas; 11 OSU @ 6 Boise St
Problems are non conference champ LSU hosting and Pitt and Cincy meeting in the opening round. I think the best adjustment is:
@ 1 Florida
@ 10 Iowa
@ 4 TCU
@ 5 Cincinnati
@ 3 Texas
@ 6 Boise St
@ 7 Ga Tech
@ 15 CMU
Bubbleburst teams are Miami (FL), Utah, Arizona, PSU. Again I don't feel any of those teams are so deserving to take away Troy/CMU/Houston's autobid.
I think you have only 3 games with greater than a TD point spread. USC , possibly Oregon and Pitt would be favorites.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
M beat them last year with a worse offense and a similarly bad defense
Minor could run for 150 yards
The weather might be warmish and Forcier anecdotally plays better in better weather
Because Brandon Graham deserves better
Michigan fared much better (8 points) in their first 2 losses then Wisconsin (28 points) did in theirs.
RR is 1-0 as M coach when playing in CST
Wisconsin's running game may not take advantage of Michigan's safety and linebacker coverage problems - only their angle and tackling problems
Big Ten officials are pretty bad, who knows what they'll come up with this week...
And the overall conference rankings are:
Schlabach doesn't even have the Big Ten filling all its openings since he has Iowa also making a BCS bowl. They again both have Texas in the BCS championship game with Schlabach picking Alabama and Fedlman taking Florida as their opponent.
-Roundtree caught a lot of passes
-KO returns were consistently good
-Olesnavage kicked a 50+'er
-Mesko had a great punt at a clutch time
-The Offense didn't fold when things were starting to look bad for the team (unlike the last two weeks)
-The weather looked nice
-More evidence that the Stevie Brown position switch was the correct decision
-Minor showed again that he is the best back on the team
(I didn't see any negatives)
Friday, November 6, 2009
With this, a conference champ ranked #22 or above would get an auto bid. It is more likely that #30 would probably get you in. Unfortunately, CMU at #38 doesn't get in.
The tourney would be a basic 16 team, with the CFRC rankings being indicating seeds. Because of the low number of total college games played, I decided that rematches would be avoided until the last possible chance, so if a team is scheduled to play someone they played during the regular season, there would be some re-seeding (to benefit the higher seed, if possible) to avoid that contest until the finals, if possible. This means it is possible for two teams in the same conference to meet in the first round..if they didn't play each other during the season.
Home field for first two rounds (that is an idea you got right)
Currently the lineup is as follows
16 OK ST AT 1 FL
9 GTU AT 8 IA
13 VTU AT 4 ORE
12 PITT AT 5 TCU
15 HOU AT 2 TX
10 PSU AT 7 CIN
14 USC AT 3 AL
11 LSU AT 6 BOISE ST.
Using the RRG (random representative game)Prediction System, the following could happen
FL OVER OK ST
IA OVER GTU (HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE)
ORE OVER VTU
PITT OVER TCU
TX OVER HOUSTON
CIN OVER PSU (HOME FIELD IS THE DIFFERENCE)
USC OVER ALA
BOISE STATE OVER LSU
FL OVER IA
ORE OVER PITT IN A CLOSE ONE
TX OVER CIN
USC OVER BOISE ST IN A CLOSE ONE
ORE OVER FL
TX OVER USC
ORE OVER TX IN DOUBLE OT
1 FL over 16 Troy
8 Ore over 9 LSU
5 Cin over 12 USC
13 Pit over 4 IA
3 ALA over 14 Hous
6 TCU over 11 PSU
7 Boise St over 10 Ga Tech
2 Tx over 15 CMU
Fl over ORe. The home field was the difference here.
Cin over Pitt
ALA over TCU
Tx over Boise in a close one.
Cin over Fl. That even surprised me.
Ala over TX.
Al over Cin
That is how it would play out (this time)
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Clinch a bowl game. Things will be looking up
Preliminary scores for Wisconsin 31-23 and OSU 26-25. (both losses)
Why am I so confident M can stay with those two teams? I don't know
Preliminary score for Little Caesars bowl: CMU 28, M 25
M is 133-29-1 in games played at Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 against Purdue (9-0 at Michigan Stadium)
M is 6-2 when facing a team for the 12th time
M is 111-29-1 against conference opponents
M is 14-8 when unranked facing an unranked opponent
M is 12-5 against the 5th different head coach I have seen for a specific opponent
M is 30-6 against teams with head coaches whose first names end in "y" or "ie"
It is simple when you add it all up:
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Here are the ground rules:
- All 11 conference champs make the 16 team field.
- The remaining at-large teams are selected based on BCS ranking.
- Notre Dame (or any independent) makes the field if they have a BCS ranking of 20 or better.
- No intra-conference match-ups in the opening round
- First two rounds are held at campus sites
- Only conference champs can host an opening round match-up
Here's the playoff potential for this week:
16 Troy @ 1 Florida
9LSU @ 8 Oregon
12 USC @ 5 Cincinnati
13 Pittsburgh @ 4 Iowa
3 Alabama @ 14 Houston
11 Penn St @ 6 TCU
10 Georgia Tech @ 7 Boise St
15 CMU @ 2 Texas
14 of the top 16 BCS ranked teams make this playoff. Only CMU and Troy are not in the top 16 of the BCS. Utah and Ohio State are the two teams that would have their bubbles burst. I don't have any issues with them being left out. Notre Dame is currently ranked 22. So they may be knocking someone else out in the future.Alabama is the only higher seed playing on the road. They'll make their case to be at home if they make it to the SEC championship game.
I think the majority of these games would have relatively close point spreads. Only the top 2 seeds would likely be large favorites.
I think Feldman missed that M lost, I don;t know how he can keep them in the Champs bowl - essentially the 5th best team.
Not many changes in the overall conference rankings either.
This week both "experts" have the same 10 teams in the BCS games including both having Texas-Florida in the championship game.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Monday, November 2, 2009
|Opponent||First drive result|
M scores on 52.38% Pct of first drives, when you add the 3 missed FGs as somewhat of a sign of success you get a 66.67% rate on opening drives.
After that M is not nearly as successful:
28.63% success for the remainder of drives. M has been particularly bad on opening drives of the 2nd half. Scoring on only 1 of 21 attempts for a 4.76% success rate. There is a missed FG in there and 2 turn over on downs that would lead me to think they had some success moving down the field. At the best this could be 4/21 of for 19.05%.
Obviously I have no previous data to compare this to, but it seems odd that there would be such a difference between opening drive success and the remainder of the game.
BrianGoBlog often stated last year that M would come out with a new wrinkle be successful and then when the other team adjusted M couldn't. The trend seemed to be lessened earlier this season, but the past few weeks I think M has really regressed after their first drives.
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Why is Roundtree so slow? He looked like he was pulling a wagon. Technically I think he was down well in side the 1 yard line. If they get a better mark, Brown (given the same run) scores on first down. Those inside runs just aren't Browns specialty. They needed minor in before 4th down. The plays they ran seemed to have too much lateral running and not enough North-South. On 2nd down I thought he could just run right upfield for 6, but he kept running right. Getting no points was very disappointing.
Of course that is no excuse for the defense forgetting how to stop the read option. 378 yards rushing? Mike Williams seemed out of place or making the wrong read on every score. How can there be no better safeties on the roster than Williams and a walk-on?
Next week is another "Biggest Game in RRs career at Michigan". I can't see M having much of a chance @ Wisconsin or against the Buckeyes. As sad as it is to say 6-6 and bid to the Pizza Pizza Bowl is much different than 5-7.
I'm sure they'll be tickets available, want me to pick you up one?
When this season started, M appeared to be playing better than everyone expected. Now, however, they are playing much worse than early in the season.
It is very concerning that RR's teams don't improve. I thought having a roster with a lot of young players, which he has had both last year and this, meant improvement throughout the year. We haven't seen that. I am laying that squarely on RR.
Besides that, though, I am not sure what to blame directly on RR and what to blame on other things. I don't think Forcier is completely healthy, for instance. And I don't think the talent base was very high when he got here, etc. etc. etc. I just don't know.
I guess the way I look at it is that I am not confident in RR doing anything much different next year than he has done last year and this year. The talent level really doesn't appear to be improving much (best two players on D leaving next year, the WRs just aren't getting better, etc.) and I don't see anything in the innovation area that gives M the advantage that you would think M should have. So, looking at it like that, I guess I would say just dump him and get somebody better.
Which brings me to the problem with that. Is there anyone better? Is there anyone out there that would take the job that would actually be better than RR? And did RR become a bad coach all of a sudden after being successful in every other place he's coached? I just don't know if I believe there is anyone out there that IS better, and I don't don't know if I believe RR is a bad coach.
But, the past 21 games have been the worst 21 game span since a span starting toward the end of the season in 1961 and ending the last game of 1963 (7-12-2). That is 46 years. RR was born between the 62 and 63 seasons. Is RR just not the right coach for Michigan? Is there any coach that is the right coach for Michigan?
So, now what? Really. With no hope for the rest of this season, and little expectation of major improvement next season, I don't know what should be done. I almost hope they find something in the NCAA investigation so the decision to fire him is easy.
Friday, October 30, 2009
The best dog in the world is making her final trip to the vet today. Please try to put her in your thoughts later this afternoon.
Many people who aren't "dog people" have told us they'd get a dog if they knew she'd be like Stimpy. Unfortunately for them, but fortunately for us, this humane society special was one-of-a-kind.
When I met Stimpy she was still young enough to play and chase. She loved "Stimpy Runs the Bases Night" after our crappy softball games when she would chase me around the bases to help me shake off the funk of another double-header loss.
She wasn't sure what to think of Hobbes at first. I think she begrudgingly realized he was part of the family. They had their share of territorial battles of each others food dishes, but I think they ultimately got along pretty well. When Hobbes passed and we added Wendell to the family, she once again realized her status as the #1 child was being cut. Wendell is always looking for a bit of warmth and occasionally Stimpy was patient (or tired) enough to put up with him as the picture shows.
I don't know that we'll add another dog into our family. How could they live up to Stimpy, the perfect dog?
I'll miss you Stimpy!