Friday, November 6, 2009

Playoffs

I'm not going to go into the specifics of the selection process, but the basic philosophy is that the higher up you are in your conference (in the rankings, not the actual standings; i'm not taking the time to look at all of that), the more likely you are to make the playoffs over a team that is higher rated, but lower in their own conference. For example, a 4th place team in the SEC ranked #15 is less likely to make the field than a CUSA conference champ at #22. That is the basic idea.

With this, a conference champ ranked #22 or above would get an auto bid. It is more likely that #30 would probably get you in. Unfortunately, CMU at #38 doesn't get in.

The tourney would be a basic 16 team, with the CFRC rankings being indicating seeds. Because of the low number of total college games played, I decided that rematches would be avoided until the last possible chance, so if a team is scheduled to play someone they played during the regular season, there would be some re-seeding (to benefit the higher seed, if possible) to avoid that contest until the finals, if possible. This means it is possible for two teams in the same conference to meet in the first round..if they didn't play each other during the season.

Home field for first two rounds (that is an idea you got right)

Currently the lineup is as follows

16 OK ST AT 1 FL
9 GTU AT 8 IA

13 VTU AT 4 ORE
12 PITT AT 5 TCU

15 HOU AT 2 TX
10 PSU AT 7 CIN

14 USC AT 3 AL
11 LSU AT 6 BOISE ST.
______

Using the RRG (random representative game)Prediction System, the following could happen

FIRST ROUND
FL OVER OK ST
IA OVER GTU (HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE IS THE DIFFERENCE)

ORE OVER VTU
PITT OVER TCU

TX OVER HOUSTON
CIN OVER PSU (HOME FIELD IS THE DIFFERENCE)

USC OVER ALA
BOISE STATE OVER LSU


SECOND ROUND
FL OVER IA
ORE OVER PITT IN A CLOSE ONE

TX OVER CIN
USC OVER BOISE ST IN A CLOSE ONE


SEMIFINALS
ORE OVER FL
TX OVER USC

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
ORE OVER TX IN DOUBLE OT

2 comments:

  1. without making a Notre Dame exception, your plan has no chance. How can you keep the 23rd ranked Irish out?

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  2. I though a lot about that. I decided that 26 was good enough for an independent, but not 23. I didn't want to give an independent the same credit as a conference champ. That way any independent could schedule light to get in (not that ND does that). I think you're right, though, that the NCAA wouldn't allow what I did.

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