Comparing RR to the past

So, I decided to do a little research and look at what has happened to teams who were in similar situations as M is now. Specifically, what happens when a team with a winning record changes coaches and then goes two years with a losing record (yeah, I know I am jumping the gun by one week). I figured I would go back 20 years and see what happened.

I'm not sure whether I figure this will be a way to predict what will happen next year (though that is what I'm going to do) or whether it will give us an idea of whether RR will survive another 2 seasons, etc., but I thought it would be interesting to do a comparison and see what then happens with the program and how long the coach lasts at the uni.

I'm not counting 6-6 as a winning record or a losing record

Only I-A teams are being checked. For teams that have changed to I-A recently, I'm only using I-A info.

Army
1990, 6-5, Jim Young
1991, 4-7, Bob Sutton
1992, 5-6, Bob Sutton
After 1992, Army went 6-5, then went 5 of then next 6 without a winning record. In 1996, Army pulled out a 10-2 season.
Result: 3rd season 6-5, one game better than prior season. Coach lasted for 9 seasons.

Colorado
2005, 7-6, Gary Barnett, Mike Hankwitz
2006, 2-10 Dan Hawkins
2007, 6-7 Dan Hawkins
After 2007, Colorado went 5-7 and is currently3-7
Result: 3rd season 5-7, 1 1/2 games worse than prior season. Coach lasted at least 4 seasons.

Duke
1989, 8-4, Steve Spurrier
1990, 4-7, Barry Wilson
1991, 4-6-1, Barry Wilson
Wilson only lasted 4 seasons, his best record in 1991
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 1/2 games worse than the previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

East Carolina
1991, 11-1, Bill Lewis
1992, 5-6, Steve Logan
1993, 2-9, Steve Logan
ECU went 7-5 the next year, having winning seasons 6 out of the next 7 years
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 11 seasons

Georgia Tech
1991, 8-5, Bobby Ross
1992, 5-6 Bill Lewis
1993, 5-6, Bill Lewis
Lewis didn't finish the 1-10 1994 season
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 4 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted less than 3 seasons

Houston
1999, 7-4, Kim Helton
2000, 3-8, Dana Dimel
2001, 0-11, Dana Dimel
Dimel went 5-7 in his 3rd and final season at Houston
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

Idaho
1999, 7-4, Chris Tormey
2000, 5-6 Tom Cable
2001, 1-10, Tom Cable
Idaho increased their win total by one each of the next two seasons
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, one game better than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Kentucky
2002, 7-5, Guy Morriss
2003, 4-8, Rich Brooks
2004, 2-9, Rich Brooks
After a 3rd losing season Brooks has had winning records every year since.
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, one game better than previous season. Coach last at least 7 seasons

Memphis
1994, 6-5, Chuck Stobart
1995, 3-8, Rip Scherer
1996, 4-7, Rip Scherer
Scherer Never had a winning record with Memphis
Result: 3rd season, 2-9, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons.

New Mexico
1997, 9-4, Dennis Franchione
1998, 3-9, Rocky Long
1999, 4-7, Rocky Long
It took Long a couple more years to reach a winning record, but he has had all but 2 since then.
Result: 3rd season, 5-7, 1/2 game better than previous season. Coach lasted at least 12 seasons

Ohio
2000, 7-4, Jim Grobe
2001, 1-10, Brian Knorr
2002, 4-8, Brian Knorr
After the 4th year of a bad team, Knorr was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, two games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Rice
1993, 6-5, Fred Goldsmith
1994, 5-6, Ken Hatfield
1995, 2-8, Ken Hatfield
Hatfield went on for a long time with Rice enjoying a handful of winning seasons
Result: 3rd season, 7-4, 4 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 12 seasons

San Jose State
2000, 7-5, Dave Baldwin
2001, 3-9, Fitz Hill
2002, 6-7, Fitz Hill
After 4 bad seasons, Hill was gone
Result: 3rd season, 3-8, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 4 seasons

Stanford
2001, 9-3, Ty Willingham
2002, 2-9, Buddy Teevens
2003, 4-7, Buddy Teevens
Another 4-7 season is all Teevens had
Result: 3rd season, 4-7, same as previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

TCU
1991, 7-4, Jim Wacker
1992, 2-8-1, Pat Sullivan
1993, 4-7, Pat Sullivan
A couple good years and a couple bad followed
Result: 3rd season, 7-5, 2 1/2 games better than previous season. Coach lasted 6 seasons

Wake Forest
1992, 8-4, Bill Dooley
1993, 2-9, Jim Caldwell
1994, 3-8, Jim Caldwell
One winning season for Caldwell
Result: 3rd season, 1-10, 2 games worse than previous season. Coach lasted 8 seasons

Wyoming
1999, 7-4, Dana Dimel
2000, 1-10, Vic Koenning
2001, 2-9, Vic Koenning
Another 2 win season and Vic was gone.
Result: 3rd season, 2-10, 1/2 game worse than previous season. Coach lasted 3 seasons

I could do a lengthy analysis, but I don't want to. Instead I will just do averages

Average 3rd season (based on 12 game regular season): 4-8
Average change from 2nd to 3rd season: 0 games (less than 1/6 of a game better than the previous season)
With the above, and knowing the M has a I-AA school on the schedule next year, 5-7 is my early prediction.

Average length of time the coach stays (will add a couple years for active coaches): 6 years (adding the years for active coaches didn't change the rounded off average)

I don't think 5-7 will keep RR here for 6 years, so something above has to give.

Now, my in-depth analysis: If history is any indication, it doesn't look good.