Saturday, September 22, 2012

Live chat - M -ND game

Thursday, September 20, 2012

M vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Back in January I predicted M would lose to Notre Dame. Unfortunately, nothing has really happened to change my opinion.

That being said, I will be surprised if it as easy a victory for the Irish as they had over MSU. I think M's offense has more options than MSU's does.

I think that the teams are pretty even and Michigan has gotten last minute wins the past 3 years. This one is at ND and it looks like it might be cool and rainy. Barring a substantial loss in the turnover battle, I would expect Michigan to keep it close. I just think their last minute magic has to run out sometime...

M 24 ND 27

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Notre Dame Prediction

Notre Dame 31
Michigan 21

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Massachusetts Prediction

Michigan 47
Massachusetts 8

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

M vs U Mass based on historical Data

M is 174-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 26-1 in the 3rd game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 41-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 58-14 in non-conference games
M is 18-1 against schools from the Mountain West
M is 145-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 6-1 when ranked #17 
M is 124-20-1 when their opponent is unranked 
M is 49-19-1 vs. opponents with "humanish" nicknames
M is 19-3 against schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 66-16 against "state name" University or University of "state name" schools
M is 18-4-1 against teams with school name and nickname starting with the same letter
M is 1-0 when playing a team that is representing a different conference than the previous time they played
M is 15-2 the game after scoring 31 points
M is 3-1 the game after giving up 25 points 

It's easy when you add it all up...

Michigan 45 - U Mass 7

Monday, September 10, 2012

Rich Rod or 1998

There is a lot of talk out there about how these first two games of 2012 are a reminder of RR circa 2010. Get blown out by a highly ranked team (Alabama = Wisconsin/Ohio State) and win a close game against a team M should be much better than (Air Force = Indiana/Illinois/Purdue). But this start kind of reminds me of the 1998 start and I'm not sure if that is better or worse.

In 1998 M was coming off an undefeated season and a share of the MNC. In 1997, Jim Hermann (with some minor help from Charles Woodson) had turned a defense that had been just OK under his predecessor (Greg Mattison) into the dominant defense in the country. Hermann won assistant coach of the year honors and was probably on his way to being Lloyd Carr's ultimate successor.

The 1998 season started with M giving up 36 points at Notre Dame and 38 to Syracuse. M had trouble stopping the Irish ground game as Jarious Jackson and Aubrey Denson led the Irish to 280 yards on the ground. Although turnovers and short field helped the Irish - allowing scores on 5 straight possessions was a drastic difference from the 1997 D for Michigan.

The next week Donovan McNabb pretty much did whatever he wanted against Hermann's D jumping out to a 24-0 lead before M made it close in garbage time 38-28.

Although no one on the 2011 defense had the national acclaim that Charles Woodson did in 1997. The losses along the D-line from team 132 seems to have affected the 2012 defense just as much.

The bight side is M went through 1998 as constantly being the highest ranked 2 loss team (as much a Michigan Tradition as any) and ended up with a 10-3 record, with a bowl win over an SEC school and a share of the conference title.

On the down side - Hermann's defenses were never anywhere near as good as the 1997 squad. This lead to his departure following the 2005 season and relative obscurity as a NFL position coach. Maybe Mattison isn't quite the genius we thought he was in 2011...

Thursday, September 6, 2012

M vs. Air Force prediction based on historical data

M is 173-49-1 in all games I have attended (everything is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 21-6 in the 2nd game (I've attended) in a particular season
M is 40-9 with #16 starting at QB
M is 57-14 in non-conference games
M is 3-1 against schools from the Mountain West

M is 144-34-1 in games at Michigan Stadium

M is 7-0 when ranked #19
M is 123-20-1 when their opponent is unranked

M is 25-5 when facing teams with bird related nicknames
M is 4-0 in their head coach's 12th attended game
M is 18-4 against teams with head coaches whose last name starts with "C"
M is 4-3 in games following 20+ point losses (eight 20+ point losses in 223 games isn't bad.. although there has been 5 in the last 33)

It's easy when you add it all up...

M 45 Air Force 21

Prediction for Air Force

Michigan 36
Air Force 27

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Trophy Update

WVU kept control of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy with a dominant 69-34 victory over intrastate rival Marshall. This follows their 70-33 victory in the Orange Bowl. WVU became the first team with consecutive 60+ point trophy games since Oklahoma topped 60 three strait in 2008. You have to go all the way back to Fordham in 1930 for a higher 2 game run (73-0 and 71-0). Fordham's next game was a 3-0 win.

I think James Madison is unlikely to hold the Mountaineers to that low a score.