Thursday, November 28, 2013

OSU prediction based on historical data

M is 185-51-1 in all games I have attended (all data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise specified)
M is 155-35-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-37-1 in conference games
M is 9-6 against Ohio State
M is 34-16 after a loss
M is 8-10 after consecutive losses
M is 0-1-1 in their last game before conference reconfiguration
M is 3-0 after Thanksgiving
M is 5-5 when August Altese gets tickets as a former player (5-2 when he attends with a blood relative)

It's simple when you add it all together:

M 13 OSU 24

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Ohio Prediction

Ohio Agricultural and Mechanical College  39
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  26

Monday, November 25, 2013

Cowboys are trophy holders

Oklahoma State knocked the Baylor juggernaut off the tracks this past Saturday with a 49-17 victory. More importantly they took possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)





This is only the second time the Cowboys have held the trophy. Back in 2008 they won it from Missouri, held it for a week against Baylor before losing it to Texas. They played for it two more times in the 2008 season, losing to Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Their all-time record in trophy games is 3-7.

Oklahoma State has a bye week this Saturday before facing their arch-rival Sooners 12/7 and then the trophy will most certainly go bowling.

The bowl game is likely the best chance for the j-s trophy to come back to the B1G. Maybe in the Fiesta Bowl against Wisconsin or Michigan State.

Baylor did have quite a run as trophy holder. Their 12 wins as trophy holder matched Tim Tebow's Florida team. You'd have to go back to the tainted USC team in 2004-05.



Friday, November 22, 2013

Iow Prediction

State University of Iowa  31
Catholepistemiad of Michigania  19

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Iowa Prediction

Here are some fast facts:
  • M hasn't won consecutive road games since 2010 (Notre Dame and Indiana) 
  • Michigan hasn't won in Iowa since 2005
  • Michigan has never lost 3 consecutive games in Iowa City 
    • Did go 0-2-1 in 1984, 1985, 1988
  • With a score, Michigan will set a new record for longest streak of not being shut out
    • M last shut out at Iowa in 1984
  • Michigan hasn't lost a road game since Brady Hoke's home winning streak was broken
  • Craig Ross said on WTKA today that his friend who has picked each M game result correctly this season, predicted Iowa to win.
  • Iowa win's on a late field goal (or maybe M misses one)
M 17 Iowa 19

Monday, November 18, 2013

Field Goals

Am I the only one who thought of this:




When this happened?




here's the M Radio call
At least M didn't have 13 men on the field including players split out...

Friday, November 15, 2013

Northwestern Prediction

In September, this was a trendy pick for the Legends division title. Now, not so much. I have no idea what to think.
It would seem Northwestern's defense might be a cure for Michigan's offensive offense. Of course, I had thought Nebraska's defense would do that. Going on the road, might be a good thing for Michigan - getting away from the booing fans to the friendly confines of Evanston.
This game might be the difference between 6-6 and 7-5.

Michigan 20 Northwestern 17

Thursday, November 14, 2013

North Prediction

Northwestern University 32
Catholepestimiad of Michigania 23

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Nebraska game leads to maniacal laughter

So many things were horrible in Michigan's loss to Nebraska yesterday it is tough to compile them all. Not surprisingly, checking twitter after the game did not make me feel better.







it does not get better
 




Friday, November 8, 2013

Nebraska prediction based on historical data

M is 185-50-1 in all games have attended (all data is from games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 155-34-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 122-36-1 in conference games
M is 1-0 against Nebraska
M is 28-14 when unranked
M is 134-20-1 against unranked opponents
M is 11-4 in the 8th game I've seen in a season
M is 1-3 in the head coach's 25th game (losses for Mo, LC,and RR win for Bo)
M is 52-10 when their starting QB wears the highest jersey number I have ever seen start at QB for Michigan
M is 34-15 after a loss
M is 5-1 when the opposing coach shares the first name with a former M coach
M is 17-8-1 when facing a Big 10/Big Ten/B1G team for the last time before conference expansion (assuming I do not go to Northwestern or Iowa)
M is 7-0 against teams with a nickname that is a job/profession/person doing a task

It's easy when you add it all together:

M 38 Nebraska 28

Michigan Hoke and Awry, pt 2

To continue the issue of Michigan home and away under Hoke....

If you compare end of season (or current for this year) rankings, you'll see M plays teams close to their ranking, as you'd expect.  Wins at home, loses on the road (thus the term "home field advantage").

I only see two games that clearly doesn't follow that formula since Hoke has arrived (using CFRC rankings):

-Road 2011 Iowa #44, M#11.
You may count PSU this year, as well (CFRC PSU #48, M #34), but as you get this far down in the rankings, the teams are more of a jumble.  By the end of the year, the rankings will likely be more similar and it will be more clear that this isn't a road upset. .

At home, M (CFRC #34) beating ND this year (CFRC #24) is the only time Hoke has beaten a team that is higher ranked than M.

So, only 2 (or 3) games in his 2 1/2 seasons truly go along with the theme we keep hearing.

I win.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Nebr Prediction

Catholepistemiad of Michigania 36
Nebraska 25

Big Trophy game tonight

Baylor has held the jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy since defeating Kansas State last November.

  • They've won those 11 games by an average score of  53-22. 
  • Oklahoma comes in to Waco ranked #10 with a 7-1 record. 
  • Oklahoma lost the trophy in the MNC game in January of 2009 and hasn't played for it since.
  • An 11 win streak as trophy holder for Baylor (their first of those 11 games above was as the challenger) would be the longest since Florida ripped off 12 straight wins after beating Oklahoma in 2009

Monday, November 4, 2013

Michigan Hoke and Awry

jiMpossible requested an analysis for M home and road in the Hoke era.

jiMpossible:One thing I'm not sure about:  "Hoke's teams have been bad on the road."
Is this really true?  Isn't it that M has played tougher teams on the
road,
and has lost a few to teams that M is slightly better than (PSU this year,
Iowa a couple years ago,) .  Isn't that just home field advantage?  (If M
had lost to UConn, I wouldn't have been able to explain it any more than
explaining an  Akron loss).

Tell me if I'm wrong.
sarcasMike: jamie mac says they've been down double digits in 11 of 15 road games under Hoke-  that seems like a lot...
jiMpossible: That is a lot, but the final results are what matters.  M has been down a
lot of games, home and away; against better teams and worse.  I think the
home winning streak is putting more emphasis on the road record.  I need
someone (like you) to do a full analysis.  Thanks.

I put together a table of M deficits during Hoke's reign:

SeasonOpponentH/A/NdeficitW/Lrank at timefinal/current
2011
WMU
Home
7
W


2011
Notre Dame
Home
17
W


2011
EMU
Home
3
W


2011
SDSt
Home
NA
W


2011
Minnesota
Home
NA
W


2011
Northwestern
Away
10
W


2011
MSU
Away
14
L
23
11
2011
Purdue
Home
7
W


2011
Iowa
Away
15
L


2011
Illinois
Away
NA
W


2011
Nebraska
Home
NA
W
17
24
2011
OSU
Home
7
W


2011
VaTech
Neutral
3
W
17
21
2012
Alabama
Neutral
31
L
2
1
2012
Air Force
Home
NA
W


2012
Massachusetts
Home
NA
W


2012
Notre Dame
Away
10
L
11
4
2012
Purdue
Away
NA
W


2012
Illinois
Home
NA
W


2012
MSU
Home
1
W


2012
Nebraska
Away
14
L

25
2012
Minnesota
Away
NA
W


2012
Northwestern
Home
10
W
21
17
2012
Iowa
Home
NA
W


2012
OSU
Away
5
L
4
3
2012
South Carolina
Neutral
11
L
11
8
2013
CMU
Home
NA
W


2013
Notre Dame
Home
NA
W
14
24
2013
Akron
Home
3
W


2013
Connecticut
Away
14
W


2013
Minnesota
Home
NA
W


2013
Penn St
Away
11
L


2013
Indiana
Home
7
W


2013
MSU
Away
23
L
24
18
2013
Nebraska
Home




2013
Northwestern
Away




2013
Iowa
Away




2013
OSU
Home




2013
Bowl?
Neutral




M has faced double digit deficits in 12 of Hoke's 34 games. Two of those were at home, eight on the road and two at neutral sites.
Michigan's record in those games is 4-8 in those games (2-0 at home, 2-6 road, 0-2 neutral). It is worth noting that in in 2 of those losses (Bowl with South Carolina and at Penn State) M did come back to take the lead (even double digit lead vs. PSU - ARGGGGGGHHHH!) before losing.

M has trailed in 21 of these 34 games (12-9 in those games). 

I think falling behind by double digits in 35% of your games is not great. Winning a third of those makes it a little better (I would assume that is pretty - good; jiMpossible should follow up on that).

In a totally different era - Bo Schembechler's Wolverines fell behind by double digits 13 times in 21 years... (that is a somewhat educated guess) And I only credit them with one win and one tie in those games.

********UPDATE*****
Added opponents ranking into table. M has faced 10 teams ranked at time of kick off. These games are broken down to 3 at home, 4 on the road and 3 neutral. Only one team unranked at the game time ended up ranked that would add another road ranked team.

So M faced ranked teams in 3 of 18 homes games, 4-5 of 13 road games and 3 of 3 neutral site games. I think it would be safe to say from that data, their home schedule has not been as difficult as their road games.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Who is more stupid? PSU or the NCAA Statistics Staff

On the NCAA Football Statistics website, this year's Michigan-Penn State game is listed as having only one overtime.  Because there was a link on the webpage that said "Contact Us", I figured I could send a message and they'd look it up somewhere, and fix the mistake.  No problem.  But instead, I got this email response:

Mr. Sullivan:

Thank you for your email and interest in NCAA statistics.  The overtime report is generated from game files submitted by the host institution.  The game was submitted showing one overtime instead of four.  We have contacted the host institution several times to make them aware of this mistake and for them to submit a corrected file.  Unfortunately, the report cannot be updated until the updated file is submitted.

Thank you again.

Sincerely,
Michelle Forkner

NCAA Statistics Staff
NCAA