Thursday, November 20, 2014

Maryland Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 189-56-1 in all games I have attended (data is for games I have attended unless otherwise noted)
M is 124-41-1 in conference games
M is 159-41-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 3-0 versus Maryland
The last time I saw M play Maryland was in 1990. this got me thinking what is the longest gap, game-wise, I've gone seeing M play a particular team. 
I have seen 194 Michigan games since they last played Maryland (145-48-1). The next longest gaps are USC (110 from the 1988 Rose Bowl to the 2004 Rose Bowl); Alabama (105 from the 2000 Orange Bowl to the 2012 game in Dallas); San Diego St (63 from 2004 to the 2011 match-up) and Utah (50 from 2000 through 2008).
There are teams with current longer streaks than Maryland, including Oregon St, Arizona St, Long Beach St, Miami (Fl), Wake Forest, and UCLA.
In conference games Penn State and Illinois both had 43 game runs. Iowa went 40 games. Wisconsin is the active leader with 37 games and counting.
M is 27-10-1 in the final home game of the season
M is 6-6 in the 9th game of the season
M is 32-5 versus teams with Nicknames of  egg laying animals
M is 15-4 against teams coached by someone I've seen coach a different team against Michigan
M is 164-47-1 without Frank Clark on the roster
 M is 13-2 when they'll be lead by Jim Harbaugh in their next game

It's easy when you add it all together

M 24
MD 17

Maryland Prediction

Michigan 23
Maryland 27

Monday, November 10, 2014

Is a no-SEC team playoff possible?

We'll see how this weeks Playoff Rankings affect things - but I think there is a reasonable - not sure how likely - chance that the SEC could be left out of the playoffs.
Here are the remaining games for teams in consideration.

teamweek 10week 11week 12Conf Champ
Miss StAlabamaVanderbiltMiss?
OregonColoradoOregon Stasu win
AlabamaMiss StW CarolinaAuburn?
TCUKansasTexasIowa St
Az StOregon StWazooAZORE loss
MississippiArkansasMiss St?
BaylorOk StTexas TechKansas St

Here are my assumptions:
Miss St loses to Alabama and Ole Miss
Alabama beats Miss St and loses to Auburn
Ole Miss beats Miss St
Auburn at least beats Alabama
I think you would have a 4 way tie for the SEC West title between Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Mississippi St. I have no idea how the tie-breaker would work.
Missouri (not listed) wins the SEC East - I think as long as they don't lose twice - they will.
Missouri wins SEC Championship Game
FSU wins out including the ACC Championship game
Oregon and Arizona St win out, with Oregon winning the PAC-12 championship game
Ohio State and Nebraska win out - and whichever one wins the B1G championship game, wins it decisively.
Baylor and TCU win out.

Definitely in:
Florida St 13-0

Really likely in:
Oregon 12-1 with wins over two 2-loss teams
TCU 11-1 - only loss to 12-1 Baylor

Fighting for the last spot:
Baylor 11-1
Ohio State/Nebraska winner 11-2 - I feel like Ohio State has the stronger case beating MSU on the road? - But Nebraska has the better loss
Missouri 11-2 SEC Champ that lost to Indiana
SEC West Champ 10-3
non-SEC West champs 10-2

This scenario would get us an 8 team playoff NEXT YEAR - or sooner

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Northwestern Prediction

Michigan 18
Northwestern 25

Monday, November 3, 2014

Last second field goal brings trophy back to TCU

The ESPN College Gameday crew traveled to Morgantown for this jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy battle. TCU prevailed on Jaden Oberkrom's last second field goal.
Photo by: Tommy Gilligan USA Today Sports

The Horned Frogs trailed for much of the game but the Mountaineers were never able to put them away.

TCU faces Kansas State this coming Saturday in Fort Worth before traveling to Kansas, Texas and hosting Iowa State. If they can keep the trophy this week - they will certainly be favored the rest of the way.