Monday, November 10, 2014

Is a no-SEC team playoff possible?

We'll see how this weeks Playoff Rankings affect things - but I think there is a reasonable - not sure how likely - chance that the SEC could be left out of the playoffs.
Here are the remaining games for teams in consideration.

teamweek 10week 11week 12Conf Champ
Miss StAlabamaVanderbiltMiss?
OregonColoradoOregon Stasu win
AlabamaMiss StW CarolinaAuburn?
TCUKansasTexasIowa St
Az StOregon StWazooAZORE loss
MississippiArkansasMiss St?
BaylorOk StTexas TechKansas St

Here are my assumptions:
Miss St loses to Alabama and Ole Miss
Alabama beats Miss St and loses to Auburn
Ole Miss beats Miss St
Auburn at least beats Alabama
I think you would have a 4 way tie for the SEC West title between Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Mississippi St. I have no idea how the tie-breaker would work.
Missouri (not listed) wins the SEC East - I think as long as they don't lose twice - they will.
Missouri wins SEC Championship Game
FSU wins out including the ACC Championship game
Oregon and Arizona St win out, with Oregon winning the PAC-12 championship game
Ohio State and Nebraska win out - and whichever one wins the B1G championship game, wins it decisively.
Baylor and TCU win out.

Definitely in:
Florida St 13-0

Really likely in:
Oregon 12-1 with wins over two 2-loss teams
TCU 11-1 - only loss to 12-1 Baylor

Fighting for the last spot:
Baylor 11-1
Ohio State/Nebraska winner 11-2 - I feel like Ohio State has the stronger case beating MSU on the road? - But Nebraska has the better loss
Missouri 11-2 SEC Champ that lost to Indiana
SEC West Champ 10-3
non-SEC West champs 10-2

This scenario would get us an 8 team playoff NEXT YEAR - or sooner

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