So, I decided to look at it in a way that could quantify next season, as well as look at it game by game. This isn't really a prediction for the individual games, but it is a way to give an overview for the season by looking at the individual games. If that makes sense.
What I did was take a look at the CFRC. I had to make an assumption of how much better M will be this season than last. I figured that with 120 teams in college football, a good, but realistic improvement would be a third of that or 40 positions. M finished #93 last year, which would mean they could finish #53 this year. Wisconsin finished #53. I think M could be as good as last year's Wisconsin team (note: this is a likely best-case scenario).
Because I haven't had time to go through and see how each opponent is going to change, also, I am just going to use last year's numbers for them. On a team-by-team basis, of course it doesn't make sense. But, assuming that a given schedule this year doesn't change much from last year too much, then this will work fine. When I get a chance, I will see how the other teams will do and make predictions that way. But, this is pretty useful.
First, I decided to just take the teams rankings and compare them to M's #53. The higher ranked team wins. Home field will be addressed later. This is what i came up with.
WMU #54 win
ND #52 lose
EMU #110 win
Ind #104 win
MSU #28 lose
Iowa #24 lose
Del St. na win
PSU #7 lose
IL #67 win
PU #76 win
WIS #53 tie
OSU #11 lose
That gives us a 6-5-1 record. (I know, there aren't ties)
Now, if we bring the Home/Away issue into it...
WMU #54 win
ND #52 i'd give us a win for this home game
EMU #110 win
Ind #104 win
at MSU #28 lose
at Iowa #24 lose
Del St. na win
PSU #7 lose
at IL #67 i'd lean toward a loss on the road
PU #76 win
at WIS #53 this is a loss on the road
OSU #11 lose
That gives us 6-6.
What this really makes me realize is how interesting the schedule is. It starts out with two toss up games. I don't expect two wins on those, but if M pulls those two out, the next two should be rather easy wins. That means going into MSU at 4-0. They could be the same. Rodrig has done a good job motivating the team in the big games, staying close in the first half. The talent difference may be close enough that he could pump the team up enough to win this game. For Iowa, I don't think emotion will be enough to overcome the home/road factor (also, remember I am using last year's opponents). So, loss to Iowa puts m at 5-1. easy win to Del St., easy loss to PSU and then three more toss ups. You can hope to win 2 of these, but being on the road for two of them makes it tough. A loss to OSU. If me is good enough early on, the season could be 8-4. That is really the best case, i believe.
What I expect though is...
The first two tossups and the three tossups right before OSU really are the season. 3 for sure wins outside of that, 4 for sure losses. those tossups look mighty important. And with this, and going 3-2 in the tossups give us 6-6. I keep coming up with 6-6. Hopefully, I can lower a team or two once I look at other teams. But, of course, I will have to look more closely at M and see if 40 positions is realistic.
Now, if I was going to really look at each game, I would probably give us more chances than I did above with IA and MSU. After all, they are the kind of teams that would lose a game they shouldn't. M could be that game.
As I have mentioned (during some of the rambles) is that M realistically should be striving to reach .500. Just as M was looking at being in the top 5 or 10 in the past, a 6-6 record is probably a good goal this year. I think my unofficial early prediction for M is that they will have 7 losses. Either 6-6 and a bowl loss, or 5-7.
More likely to come later.
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