Clearly the assumption M is going to improve by 1/3 is a stretch. When looking at random teams and the difference with 40 slots, it is usually 3 or 4 games. That is huge. M will have a hard time improving by 3-4 games. I just think that is a given.
I can't give a 5-7 prediction yet. My final official prediction may be that, but I am at 6-6 now. Leaning downward, of course.