So, similar to some prior posts that I've had (so long ago, I don't want to go back and try to hyperlink to them), I will examine whether this theory is correct.
I am simply going to list the teams in each game and their position in their respective conference. To keep things simple, the conference championship game winner is #1, with conference record for all other positions. For a conference without a conference championship game, the conference record is used. Ties will include all positions with the same record (you'll see what I mean).
The number of teams in a conference matters. Being the 5th place team in a 10 team conference is different than being the 5th place team in a 14 team conference. I will take this idea into account when reviewing this.
So, let's go...
Penn State (#12/14 teams) v Boston College (ACC, #6-8/14 teams). Clearly, the Boneg should lose here. Who is scheduling these games? (0-1)
Illinois (#8-10/14) v Louisiana Tech (#2/13). This is the only Boneg bowl game against a non-Power 5 conference school. Power 5 or not, the #2 team of every conference in FBS should beat the #8 team in any other FBS conference (let alone the #10 team). Boneg should lose. (0-2). This is going as expected.
Rutgers (#8-10/14) v North Carolina (#6-8/14). If these teams were each at #8, it would be a push, but that isn't quite what is happening here. Boneg should lose. (0-3).
Maryland (#6-7/14) v Stanford (#6-7/12). This is where the size of the conference matters. A 6th or 7th place team in a 14 team conference is in the top half of the conference. 6th or 7th in a 12 team conference is right at the border of top half/bottom half. Boneg should win (1-3). Minor setback. Doesn't really change the theory.
Iowa (#6-7/14) v Tennessee (#9-11/14). Boneg should win (2-3). Um, what's happening here?
Minnesota (#4-5/14) v Missouri (#2/14). Boneg should lose (2-4). Back on track to excuses, er explanations.
Nebraska (#4-5/14) v USC (#3-5/12). I had to do some extra calculations on this, with USC having a wider range, and there being a difference in size of conferences. Basically I assumed each team would get a win against the teams above, and a loss against the teams below within their own conferences. I used the average of the positions. With that, USC was slightly higher (approx .750 v approx .730). Boneg should lose (2-5).
Wisconsin (#2-3/14) v Auburn (#6-8/14). Boneg should win (3-5). Ooof. This one hurts because I really don't see it happening.
Michigan State (#2-3/14) v Baylor (#1-2/10). I did the calculations similar to above, just to make sure (.940 to .880). Boneg should lose. (3-6)
Ohio State (#1/14) v Alabama (#1/14). Tie. ("Good one, jiM) (3-6-1)
So, the theory holds to a point. It doesn't explain why the Boneg is the underdog in every bowl game, but it explains a little why Boneg will not do well for another bowl season.
