M vs Alabama Rose Bowl prediction based on historical data

  

Michigan is 252-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 0-2 in the 11th attended games of the season
M is 8-9 in Bowl games
M is 8-5 in January
M is 95-23 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 25-10 vs. schools from Confederate States
M is 7-4 vs. schools from the SEC
M is 1-1 vs Alabama
M is 2-1 vs all schools from Alabama
M is 41-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 2-4 in the Rose Bowl
M is 6-7 west of the Mississippi River
M is 9-10 in stadiums that have hosted the Super Bowl
M is 28-5 vs schools with colors in the name or nickname
M is 81-28-1 on natural turf
M is 68-24 in mid afternoon starts
M is 4-3 when playing for their 11th consecutive attended win
M is 164-32-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 75-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 2-1 vs Nick Saban
M football is 52-6-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 90-42 vs ranked opponents
M is 3-1 when ranked #1
M is 2-0 vs teams ranked #4
M is 13-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site  (I'm assuming they will be at the Rose Bowl - if not M is 239-60-1 without ESPN Gameday)
M is 2-1 on Monday
M is 128-44 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance
M is 1-2 when jiMpossible and I are both at the Rose Bowl (sad jiMpossible is above with Bo at I believe the 1990 Rose Bowl)
M football and M hockey are combined 0-6 in semifinal games when I attended

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 29

'Bama 20

2024 Rose Bowl Prediction (Michigan-Alabama)

Michigan 25

Alabama 24

Washington takes the Trophy to the CFP

The winner of this year's College Football Playoff trophy, will also take with them the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy

Washington has been on quite a run. The Huskies has ripped off 16 straight wins since taking the Trophy from Oregon in November of 2022. This is their 11th time as holders of the Trophy.

• Washington is no 44-23 all-time in Trophy games
• This will be the 15th time the Sugar Bowl has hosted a Trophy game
• The team coming in the with Trophy is 12-2 in these match-ups
• Texas is 10-10 in Trophy games and is a 4-time Trophy holder
• The Longhorns went on a 4 game win streak after defeating Alabama in the 1965 Orange Bowl before losing to Arkansas
  
• Texas had a 2 game run at the end of the 1998 season carrying the Trophy through the 1999 Cotton Bowl before getting upset by NC State in the BCA Classic
  
• They ended USC's long run in the amazing 2006 Rose Bowl - BCS national championship game and won their opener of the 2006 season before falling to the Buckeyes
• Their last win was over Oklahoma State in 2008
• Most recent loss was last year to Washington in the Alamo Bowl

One of these schools will carry the Trophy into the Championship game and face either Michigan or Alabama.

• Michigan is 25-27-1 in Trophy games and are 9-time Trophy holders
• Alabama is 64-22 in Trophy games and has won the Trophy 11 times
   

2023 Michigan-Iowa Prediction

Michigan 30

Iowa 7

B1G Championship game (2023) prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 251-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 6-2 in the 10th attended game of the season
M is 155-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 14-4 vs.Iowa
M is 87-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 41-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 in conference championship games
M is 8-1 vs teams ranked 17
M is 15-5 when ranked #2
M is 19-11 when ranked in the top 5 vs ranked teams
M is 244-62-1 on Saturday
M is 6-6 in NFL stadiums
M is 23-6 in night games
M is 70-8 vs. schools where either the school’s name or nickname was a key character/element or in the title of a tv show or movie I watched as a kid
M is 4-3 in domes
M is 74-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 51-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 29

Iowa 5

2023 Michigan-Ohio State Prediction

Michigan 24

Ohio State 21

M vs Ohio State based on historical data

Michigan is 250-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 9-8 in the 9th attended game of the season
M is 154-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 10-10 vs. Ohio State
M is 86-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 209-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 20-11 vs schools from Ohio
M is 31-23 vs higher ranked opponents
M is 12-4-1 when ranked #3
M is 3-2 vs teams ranked #2
M is 243-62-1 on Saturday
M is 12-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site
M is 119-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 73-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 2-0 with Sherrone Moore as their acting head coach
M football is 50-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 28

Ohio State 17

M at Maryland prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 249-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 21-10 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 153-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 6-1 vs. Maryland
M is 85-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 14-10 the first time I have seen them in a stadium (changing names does not make it a new stadium in this scenario)
M is 8-8 when playing their first game in a new state
M is 185-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 14-5 when ranked #2
M is 242-62-1 on Saturday
M is 40-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 118-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 72-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 1-0 with Sherrone Moore as their acting head coach
M football is 49-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 34

Maryland 14

2023 Michigan-Maryland Prediction

Michigan 34

Maryland 15

M vs Penn State prediction based on channeling anger

Michigan has themselves first to blame for the advanced scouting-gate. Penn State’s only culpability is -I assume - being one of the schools pushing for punishment. 

M 28

PSU 11

2023 M-Penn State Prediction

Michigan 25

Penn State 24

Trophy update moving into week 11

 The Washington Huskies continue their reign as holders of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy

UW beat USC in a high scoring match-up 52-42. Washington hosts Utah this week in another tough game.

• Washington is now 40-23 in Trophy games
• USC falls to 89-18-8
• Utah goes into Saturday with a 2-2 record in Trophy games
• They defeated Colorado State in October of 1994 in their first ever chance for the Trophy. The Utes won again the next week over UTEP, before falling to New Mexico in early November
• Their only other chance was a 1996 loss to Trophy-holder and arch-rival BYU
• After Utah the Huskies travel to Oregon State  and then close the regular season in hopefully not the final Apple Cup with Wazoo.
• If they continue to hold the trophy they end up in a likely rematch with Oregon for the conference championship with the winner likely playoff bound
  
• Utah travels to Arizona and hosts Colorado to close out the conference schedule. Even with a winning all 3 games they would likely need help to make the conference championship game.

It would seem the quickest path to bringing the Trophy to the Big Ten is for Washington to win out and either face and lose to a current conference team in the playoffs or win the championship and join the conference as Trophy-Holder next season. 

Michigan travels to Washington on October 5, 2024

2023 M-Purdue Prediction

Michigan 44

Purdue 8

M vs Purdue prediction based on histotical data

Michigan is 248-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 21-10 in the 7th attended game of the season
M is 153-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 11-3 vs. Purdue - the Boilermakers are 4-11 in all games I have attended
M is 163-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 104-33-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames
M is 184-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 13-5 when ranked #2
M is 3-1 on November 4
M is 241-62-1 on Saturday
M is 208-47-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 22-6 in night games
M is 71-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 8-0 when facing the 7th different head coach for the opponent
M football is 48-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 45

Purdue 7

2023 Michigan State Prediction

M 35

MSU 12

M at MSU prediction based on Historical data

Michigan is 247-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 27-8-1 in the 6th attended game of the season
M is 152-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 19-11 vs. MSU - the Spartans are 12-19 in all games I have attended
M is 57-28 vs "State" schools - example = "____ State U"
M is 162-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 103-33-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames
M is 183-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 12-5 when ranked #2
M is 40-14 in trophy games
M is 3-0 on October 21
M is 240-62-1 on Saturday
M is 39-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 27-13 in true road games
M is 7-6 at Spartan Stadium
M is 21-6 in night games
M is 70-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 7-0 when facing the 7th different head coach for the opponent
M football is 47-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

It's easy when you look at the data

M 34

MSU 14

Week 8 Trophy Update

Washington won a back-and-forth battle with Oregon to maintain control of College Football's Greatest Trophy!

Washington faces Arizona State this Saturday. The Sun Devils are 10-9 in Trophy games. Their last win came in November of 1995, their 4th time as trophy holder. ASU has only had 2 chances to win the Trophy since, losing to USC in both 2004 and 2005.

The UW win marked their 37th victory in Trophy games, moving them past Army and alone into 11th place. The Huskies need 6 more wins to tie Miami (Fl) for 10th.

Most wins in Trophy Games

1. Yale 129
2. Princeton 101
3. USC 89
4. Harvard 88
5. Ohio State 70
6. Alabama 64
7. Pennsylvania 59
8. Mississippi 45
9. Tennessee 44
10. Miami (FL) 43
11. Washington 37
12. Army 36

Most losses in Trophy Games

1. Pennsylvania 39
2. Wesleyan 30
3. Harvard 28
4. Michigan 27
5. Washington 23
6. 5-way tie Alabama, Florida, Penn State, Rutgers, Tennessee 22

Most times as trophy holder

1. USC 13
2. Tie - Alabama, Washington 11
3. Harvard 10
4. 5-way tie Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Princeton, UCLA
5. Tie - LSU, Notre Dame

 

2023 M-Indiana Prediction

Michigan 40

Indiana 6

Week 7 Trophy Update

The Trophy Holding Washington Huskies had a bye week last week and will face Oregon this Saturday with The jimPossible-sarcasMike Trophy on the line once again.

• Washington started this run with the Trophy by knocking off the Ducks last November 37-34
• UW is seeking it's 9th straight win - this is already their longest run with the Trophy
• The Huskies are 36-23 in Trophy games and this is their 11th time as Trophy-holder
• Oregon has only been the Trophy-holder that one time and has an overall record of 7-18-1
• The PNW teams have met 4 times in Trophy games with UW winning each time

It seems likely The Trophy will end the regular season in the PAC-12. 

M vs. Indiana prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 246-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 27-10 in the 5th attended game of the season
M is 151-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 18-0 vs. Indiana - the Hoosiers are 0-19 in all games I have attended
M is 161-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 102-33-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames
M is 182-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 11-5 when ranked #2
M is 2-0 on October 14
M is 239-62-1 on Saturday
M is 207-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 117-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 69-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 46-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team  

Indiana is the only Big Ten team I have not seen defeat Michigan. Next year (unless M were to lose to either of them in a post season game) UCLA and Washington will join that list.

It's easy when you look at the data

M 44

IU 7

M vs Minnesota prediction based on Plaidurday

 

M 35

Minnesota 14

2023 M-Minnesota Prediction

Michigan 32

Minnesota 13

2023 M-Nebraska Prediction

Michigan 28

Nebraska 12

M vs Nebraska prediction based on the last game M game I didn't attend

M 45

N 23

M vs Rutgers prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 245-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 29-8 in the 4th attended game of the season
M is 150-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 5-1 vs Rutgers
M is 27-5 vs schools with colors in the name or nickname
M is 160-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 101-33-1 vs. schools with human based nicknames
M is 181-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 10-5 when ranked #2
M is 2-0 on September 23
M is 238-62-1 on Saturday
M is 206-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 116-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 68-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 45-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team
M is 16-10 against teams whose head coach has been an NFL head coach (in some cases the coach had not yet been an NFL head coach)
M is 40-8 when playing in a homecoming game
M is 38-8 when playing in Michigan’s homecoming game

It's easy when you look at the data

M 38

R 7

2023 M-Rutgers Prediction

Michigan 32

Rutgers 10

M vs BGSU prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 244-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 35-2 in the 3rd attended game of the season
M is 94-23 vs non-conference opponents
M is 24-1 vs the MAC
M is 1-0 vs Bowling Green
M is 26-5 vs schools with colors in the name or nickname
M is 84-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 32-5 vs. schools with bird based nicknames
M is 180-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 9-5 when ranked #2
M is 2-1 on September 16
M is 237-62-1 on Saturday
M is 205-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 20-6 in night games
M is 67-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M football is 44-6-1 when Juwan Howard has a similar leading role with the M Basketball team
M is 13-1 against teams coached by a former Michigan Assistant Coach
M is 7-1 when their (acting) head coach is in his first game

It's easy when you look at the data

M 49

BGSU 3

As an aside, the attendance for the first two games of the season were only different by 2 attendees. The opening game was 109,480 and the second game was 109,482. That made me wonder if M had ever announced a duplicate attendance in games I had attended. 

M has announced duplicate attendance 6 times. 

• 107,856 for both the 2002 WMU game and the 2008 Northwestern game.
• 109,295 for both the 2016 Central Florida game and the 2021 WMU game
• 109,432 for both 2004 vs San Diego St and 2007 vs Minnesota
• 111,349 has shown up for both the 2003 Purdue game and the 2006 MSU game
• 111,496 for 2002 vs Iowa and 2019 vs MSU
• 111,747 for 2018 Penn St and 2019 Army

Two numbers have repeated for away games as well

• 47,130 at Northwestern in 2000 and 2005 - must be their sellout number
• 75,802 for 2016 at MSU and the 2017 game in Dallas vs Florida