Friday, August 17, 2012

Trophy Predictions 2012 - Historical Data

After looking at the CFRC and Point Spreads, I thought I would look at how the Trophy holder has done historically against each opponent. If the trends hold true - it looks good for WVU as they have a winning or at least .500 record against each opponent on their schedule.

WVU is 10-0 against Marshall
1-0 against Jame Madison
25-21-2 against Maryland
This will be their first match-up with Baylor
1-0 against Texas
1-0 against Texas Tech
1-1 against Kansas State
1-0 against TCU
2-1 against Oklahoma State
2-2 against Oklahoma
First match-up with Iowa State
1-0 against Kansas

What about the 1-1 and 2-2 records. Both games are in Morgantown, so WVU has the home field advantage if that would be the tie-breaker. Although it might be worth noting that they have never played at Kansas State or hosted Oklahoma in their previous meetings. So home field might not be the best indicator (if there were any anyway...)

What is the previous pattern? In 1930WVU beat KSU 23-7, then lost in the next season 19-0. That pattern would imply a WVU victory this season.

But maybe the Wildcats are on a streak. Lets look at how KSU followed up against the other teams the beat in 1931. In addition to beating WVU, KSU had victories over Pittsburg St, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, North Dakota St, Washburn and Wichita St in 1931 (this had to be one of their best seasons pre-Bill Snyder). In 1932, they beat Wichita St and Missouri, but lost to Kansas and Oklahoma. In 1934 the defeated Washburn. They have not faced Pittsburg St or ND St since the 1931 season. So KSU is 3-2 in their next game against teams they defeated in 1931. I might pencil this one in as a KSU win then, but lets look at WVU-OU first.

The Oklahoma pattern offers a couple options. The first match-up, in 1958, was a 47-14 Oklahoma victory. Twenty years later, the Billy Sims Sooners romped 52-10. In 1982, WVU chalked up a 41-27 victory. The most recent contest was the 2008 Fiesta Bowl when the RR-less Mountaineers surprised OU 48-28. Which pattern holds? Does WWLL repeat (WWLLWWLL)? or does the WVU "streak continue for the 3rd straight win? How many times has a team beaten Oklahoma 3 straight times?

Arkansas beat OU the first two times they met (1903 & 1909), but could not win the 3rd. Colorado twice had 2 game win streaks fail to reach 3 before going 8-0-1 from 1989-1999. Iowa St had one 2 game win streak (1960-61), but couldn't make it 3. Kansas has 3 separate 3-game (or more) win streaks against the Sooners (1903, 05, 09; 1922-26; 1995-97) against only 1 failed 2 gamer. KSU had 2 2-game streaks fail to reach 3 before winning 5 straight form 1993-97. The powerhouse Miami Hurricanes won 3 straight in the mid 80s (85-86-88). Missouri is 0-3 in attempts to win 3 straight. Nebraska is 6-3 going for the 3rd straight loss (not counting times going for greater than 3 in a row). Northwestern is currently on a 3 game win streak against the Sooners (don't tell Oklahoma!). Notre Dame won the first two games, then lost, and has now won 6 straight. Oklahoma St is 0-3 in 3 game attempts. USC has beaten OU 6 straight times. Texas is 8-2 in attempts at 3 straight Red River Rivalries. Texas A&M is 2-0.
Overall record for teams on 2 game win streaks against OU 25-18. So this looks like a WVU win.

Which brings us back to the KSU game. I did a lot of work on WVU-OU to say it doesn't matter since KSU would already have taken the trophy. But what else do I have to do?

If KSU does beat WVU they would then face Texas Tech - who they are 4-8 against. TTU would then take on Texas - unfortunately for the Red Raiders they are only 15-45 against the Longhorns.

Texas would beat Iowa State (8-1) and TCU (58-20-1) before losing to KSU (5-7 - Really?) - Based on their history, KSU should be 6-6 this season including an FCS victory, so I'm not sure if they would even make a bowl.

At least this path keeps the trophy out of the MNC game. So lets go with that - the Wildcats stay home over the holidays, but they get to enjoy the trophy until fall 2013.

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