M vs Northwestern based on historical data

Michigan is 259-70-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 16-3 vs Northwestern
M is 30-6-1 vs all schools from Illinois
M is 10-8 in the 9th attended game of the season
M is 160-46-1 vs conference opponents
M is 170-4-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 215-49 in Michigan Stadium
M is 2-0 on November 23
M is 250-65-1 on Saturday
M is 37-5 vs schools with feline based nicknames (or that include the cat in their nickname)
M is 46-17 in traveling trophy games (bowl or championship trophies are not included here)

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 28
N’western 13

Michigan - Northwestern 2024

Michigan 27

Northwestern 13

Trophy update - Upset in Mississippi

 Mississippi dominate Trophy-holder Georgia 28-10 to secure the jiMpossible-sarcasMike Trophy.

This moves Mississippi to 46-15-5 all-time in Trophy games. The Rebels are on a bye this week then travel to the Swamp to face Florida before hosting Mississippi State in the Egg bowl to close out the regular season.

• This is the Rebels 6th time with the trophy
• They last held the Trophy for 3 weeks in 2021
• Prior to that all they Trophy success with in the 50s and 60s
• With the trophy on the line, Mississippi is 0-1 vs. Florida and 4-0-2 (both ties maintaining the Trophy) in the Egg Bowl
• College football Network lists Mississippi as the 2nd most likely team to make the SEC Championship game 
• Texas 46.32%; Ole Miss 16.51%; Tennessee 13.7%..
• If the "most likely" match-up occurs it would give the Longhorns a chance to win back the Trophy they lost to Georgia.
  

Michigan vs Indiana prediction based on end of times

I used to post about how few people have actually seen Michigan lose to Indiana. Even the loss in 2020, was not seen by many people in person...

But that changes this week - a full crowd and a large tv crowd will witness it tomorrow

M 21

IU 38

Michigan - Indiana 2024

Michigan 13

Indiana 38

Michigan - Oregon 2024

Michigan 11

Oregon 36

M vs Oregon prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 259-69-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 0-1 vs Oregon
M is 2-1 vs all schools from Oregon
M is 18-5 in the 8th attended game of the season
M is 160-45-1 vs conference opponents
M is 89-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 215-48 in Michigan Stadium
M is 0-5 vs teams ranked #1 – this is the first time M is facing the number 1 team while they are unranked
M is 3-1 on November 2
M is 250-64-1 on Saturday
M is 34-5 vs schools with bird based nicknames

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 17
Oregon 34

M vs MSU prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 258-69-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 20-11 vs. MSU - the Spartans are 12-20 in all games I have attended

M is 4-0 against head coaches names John Smith or Jon Smith

I ran out of time this week...

It's easy when you look at the data

M 14

MSU 13

Michigan - Michigan State 2024

Michigan 18

Michigan State 22

M vs Illinois prediction

I don't have a lot of confidence in this team, this is a hope they learned some things over the bye week pick..
M 26
Illinois 21

Michigan - Illinois 2024

Michigan 16

Illinois 29

Michigan - Washington 2024

Michigan 15

Washington 28

M at Washington Prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 258-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 3-0 vs Washington
M is 6-0 vs all schools from Washington
M is 28-8-1 in the 6th attended game of the season
M is 159-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 169-48-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 44-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 16-6 when playing in a stadium the first time (17-10 – when including the same stadium with a new name)

• Husky Stadium in Seattle will be the furthest west and furthest north of any game I have attended (passing the Rose Bowl in Pasadena and what was TCF Stadium in Minneapolis, respectively)

M is 21-11 in their first attended game away from Michigan Stadium of the season
M is 5-4 when ranked #10
M is 3-1 on October 5
M is 249-63-1 on Saturday
M is 41-21 when facing a team in consecutive seasons
M is 10-2 vs schools with canine based nicknames
M is 3-0 in local 4 or 4:30 starts

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 20
UW 24

Interesting note – the last 9 times M has given up exactly 24 points they have won – including the past two weeks. (9-3 all-time while giving up 24 points)

 

Michigan - Minnesota 2024

Michigan 25

Minnesota 14

M vs. Minnesota prediciton based on historical data

Michigan is 257-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 16-3 vs Minnesota (Minnesota is 4-16 in all games I have attended)
M is 1-1 when facing a team for the 20th time (Minnesota will break a tie with Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and trail only MSU 31 and OSU 21 for games played vs Michigan)
M is 28-10 in the 5th attended game of the season
M is 2-0 vs. head coaches whose first name is given as initials
M is 158-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 88-20 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 32-6 vs schools with colors in (or often included) in the nicknames
M is 10-4 when ranked #12
M is 3-1 on September 28
M is 248-63-1 on Saturday
M is 213-48-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 48-9 in a home game before an attended road game
M is 121-27-1 in noon or 12:30 starts

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 27
Minnesota 13

M vs. Minnesota was the first Michigan game I attended in October of 1976. 

 

October 30, 1976
#1 Michigan vs. Minnesota pic.twitter.com/ebZssciw4E

— Random Michigan Play Every Day (@Michplay_a_day) September 26, 2024

M vs Southern Cal prediction based on Historical Data

Michigan is 256-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 7-2 vs all schools from California
M is 1-2 vs USC
M is 15-3 when facing a team for the 4th time
M is 29-9 in the 4th attended game of the season
M is 157-44-1 vs conference opponents
M is 11-2 when facing a conference team for the first time
M is 168-48-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 4-2 vs teams ranked 11th
M is 6-1 when ranked #18
M is 32-24 when ranked lower than their opponent
M is 3-0 on September 21
M is 247-63-1 on Saturday
M is 212-48-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 59-22 in 3:30 starts

Before the Texas game, it had been quite a while since I picked against Michigan, didn’t take nearly as long for it to happen again…

It’s easy when you look at the data

M 9
USC 31

Michigan - USC 2024

Michigan 17

USC 28

M vs Arkansas St based on historical data

Michigan is 255-68-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 1-0 vs all schools from Arkansas
M is 36-2 in the third attended game of the season
M is 98-24 vs non-conference opponents
M is 2-0 vs. schools from the Sun Belt Conference
M is 42-7 on homecoming, (40-7 on Michigan’s homecoming)
M is 167-48-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 31-6 vs schools with colors in (or often included) in the nicknames
M is 187-64-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 10-1 when ranked #17
M is 3-0 on September 14
M is 246-63-1 on Saturday
M is 211-48-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 120-27-1 in noon or 12:30 games

It's easy when you look at the data 

M 42

ASU 11

Michigan - Arkansas State 2024

Michigan 34

Arkansas State 15

M vs Texas prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 255-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 0-1 vs Texas
M is vs 7-2 all schools from Texas
M is 31-6 in the second attended game of the season
M is 98-23 vs non-conference opponents
M is 8-4 vs. schools from the SEC
M is 5-2 when playing for College Football's Greatest Trophy
M is 15-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site
M is 167-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 10-3 vs schools with hoofed mascots
M is 68-42 vs ranked opponents
M is 0-3 vs teams ranked #3
M is 5-3 when ranked #10
M is 1-0 when playing a team they previously faced at a neutral site but are now playing on campus (this should happen at least 3 more times this season)
M is 3-0 on September 7
M is 246-62-1 on Saturday
M is 211-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 25-7-1 vs schools with orange as one of their colors
M is 120-26-1 in noon or 12:30 games
M is 6-0 when their head coach is in his second (full head coaching) game
M is 13-4 facing head coaches whose first and last name start with the same letter
M is 0-1 when trying for the 14th straight win in attended games

It's easy when you look at the data 

M 17

Texas 21

I wanted to look to see the last time I picked against Michigan, but work is too busy this week...

Michigan - Texas 2024

Michigan 19

Texas 26

2024 Week 1 trophy update

The defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines are also the holders of College Football's Greatest Trophy. Michigan faces Fresno State Saturday night in defense of the Trophy.

• Michigan took ownership of the Trophy from Washington in the Championship game in Houston
• This is M's 9th time as trophy holder
  
• This will be their first Trophy defense since the 2003 season ended with a Rose Bowl loss to USC
• Since that loss, M has lost 3 times to arch rival Ohio State with a chance to take the Trophy (2006, 2018 and 2019)
  
• M is 26-27-1 in Trophy games  
• A win Saturday night would break a 3-way tie for 15th and move M ahead of Baylor and UCLA 
• Next up would be Auburn with 31 wins (34-18-2)
  
• Their 27 losses in Trophy games is 4th highest all-time, behind Penn (59-39-5), Wesleyan (0-30) and Harvard (88-28-5)
• Fresno State is 1-2 all time in Trophy games
• Their lone victory came over the San Diego Marines in September of 1932
• The lost the following game to West Coast Army and did not play for the Trophy again until falling to USC in November of 2005 in a shootout 50-42

Michigan - Fresno State 2024

Michigan 36

Fresno State 12

M vs Fresno State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 254-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

Fresno State will be the 73rd school I have seen M play and the 77th team I have seen play overall – 

M is 57-15 when facing a team for the first time
M is 39-6 in the first attended game of the season
M is 97-23 vs non-conference opponents
M is 9-1 vs the American Athletic conference
M is 6-2 vs schools from California
M is 15-4 vs schools from the pacific time zone
M is 166-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 8-2 vs teams with canine based nicknames
M is 186-25-1 vs unranked opponents
M is 6-2 when ranked #9
M is 4-0 on August 31
M is 245-62-1 on Saturday
M is 210-47-1 at Michigan Stadium
M is 8-0 after consecutive (attended) games away from Michigan Stadium
M is 25-6 in night games
M is 5-1 when their head coach is in his first (full head coaching) game

It's easy when you look at the data

M 35

California State University at Fresno 10

2024 M Football Season Prediction

8/31 Fresno State W

9/7 Texas, L

9/14 Arkansas St W

9/21 USC W

9/28 Minnesota W

10/5 @ Washington W

10/19 @ Illinos W

10/26 MSU W 

11/2 Oregon W

11/9 @ Indiana W

11/23 Northwestern W

11/30 @ OSU L

12/7 M loses coin flip and does not qualify for B1G Championship game

12/21 LSU W

12/31 Clemson W

1/9 OSU W

1/20 Georgia L

14-3 National Runner up

Season Prediction 2024

8-4, win in bowl game

2024 College Football Championship Prediction

Michigan 31

Washington 25

CFP Championship prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 253-67-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)
M is 14-4 vs schools from the Pacific time zone
M is  14-3 playing in the central time zone
M is 9-5 in January
M is 96-23 vs. non-conference opponents
M is 7-2 vs teams with canine nicknames
M is 10-6 vs. schools from the Pac 10 or Pac 12
M is 2-0 vs Washington
M is 5-0 vs all schools from Washington
M is 42-20 away from Michigan Stadium
M is 1-1 in games played in Texas
M is 7-7 west of the Mississippi River
M is 10-10 in stadiums that have hosted the Super Bowl
M is 7-6 in NFL stadiums
M is 171-39 on artificial turf
M is  5-3 in domes
M is 2-2 when playing for their 12th consecutive attended win
M is 165-47-1 vs. schools with mascots deemed heavier than a Wolverine
M is 76-13 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 7-1 vs teams with head coaches that have more than one capital letter in their last name
M football is 53-6-1 when Juwan Howard is a player or coach for the M basketball team
M is 91-42 vs ranked opponents
M is 4-1 when ranked #1
M is 4-2 vs teams ranked #2
M is 14-7 when ESPN Gameday is on site
M is 3-1 on Monday
M is 129-44 when Hoot and I are confirmed to be in attendance
M is 24-6 in night games
M football and M hockey 2-0 when playing for a National Championship

It's easy when you look at the data:

M 35

Washington 21

Huskies bring Trophy to CFP Championship

Washington and Michigan will be facing off Monday night for College Football's Greatest Trophy and the College Football Playoff Championship Trophy as well!

• The Huskies have rattled off 17 consecutive wins after taking the Trophy from Oregon last November.
• The last 17 game trophy holder win streak was Ohio State from November of 2018 until they lost in the CFP Semifinal vs. Clemson in 2019
• The most recent streak to go beyond 17 was USC with 25, from the 2004 Rose Bowl over Michigan to the 2006 Rose Bowl loss to Texas
• The longest trophy holding streaks are: 
1. Yale 36 (1891-1893)
   
2. Miami (Fl) 31 (2000-2002)
3. Yale 29 (1888-1889) 
4. Princeton 25 (1879-1882)
   
5. Harvard 25 (1912-1915)
   
6. USC 25 (2004-2006)
7. Yale 24 (1882-1885)
   
8. Pennsylvania 24 (1894-1896)
   
9. USC 24 (1978-1980)
10. Harvard 23 (1898-1900)
    
11. Army 21 (1948-1950)
    
12. Mississippi 19 (1959-1961)
13. Pennsylvania 18 (1897-1898)
    
14. Tennessee 18 (1938-1939)
• Michigan's longest streak is 8 games in 1972
• The Wolverines last held the Trophy in 2003 and have a 25-27-1 record in Trophy games
• Washington's record now stands at 45-23 in Trophy games

One of these two schools will carry the Trophy into the new Big Ten next season

 Go Blue!