Wisconsin prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 199-59-1 in all games I have attended -1
                                  - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated
M is 128-44-1 in conference games
M is 167-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 vs. Wisconsin
M is 7-3 when playing a team for the 12th time -2
M is 115-21 vs. schools with animal based nicknames
M is 71-17 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 18-3 when ranked #4
M is 4-3 vs. teams ranked #8 (3 straight losses)
M is 7-8 when both teams are ranked in the top 10 (3 straight losses)
M is 21-5 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team
M is 52-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 22-10 in the 3rd consecutive game with the same kickoff time
M is 82-21-1 vs. schools playing out of their timezone
M is 12-6 in games that it rained/sleeted (right now there is a 15-25% chance of rain during the game)
M is 3-1 vs. head coaches that share their first name with one of my brothers-in-law
M is 16-2 when I attended a tailgate/go blue brunch before the game
M is 21-10 in the 5th game I have attended in a season
M is 3-0 on October 1

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 31
W 17

1M will either get my 200th victory or 60th loss. My 100th victory was the 35-31 victory over Illinois in Champaign in 2000. That brought M's record in games I'd attended to 100-20-1. So if my prediction holds my second 100 will have taken 139 games or ~15 more games than 100 victories. M has won 929 games over all - so I have witnessed 21.4% of all their wins.
 
2Wisconsin is currently the 12th most common opponent I've seen Michigan play. Only the three most recent additions to the conference have been Michigan's opponent less. I have seen M play both Penn State and Notre Dame more than Wisconsin, even though I have been to two games at Camp Randall.

 

Wisconsin Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo 34
Wisconsin Taxidea Taxi* 16

*There are 11 species of badger.  I chose the only one found in North America, the american badger

Aggies take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy

Texas A&M pulled away in the second half Saturday night to defeat Arkansas 45-24 and take possession of the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy.

Texas A&M is 8-5 alll-time in trophy games.

This is only the Aggies 3rd time holding the trophy. They had a one week run in 1941, beating Washington State the day before the day that lives in infamy before losing to Alabama in the 1942 Cotton Bowl.
Their other time with the trophy in their case was 6 game run in 1998. They beat Nebraska on 10/10 and rattled off 5 more victories before losing to Texas.
They had 3 loses as the challenger, 1962 to LSU, 1965 to Arkansas and the Big XII championship game to Nebraska in 1997.

A quick look - makes the earliest the trophy could come to the Big Ten is in a bowl game/playoff.

Texas A&M has a pretty tough schedule going forward.
10/1 at South Carolina
10/8 vs. Tennessee
10/22 at Alabama
10/29 New Mexico State
11/5 at Mississippi State
11/12 vs. Ole Miss
11/19 vs. UTSA
11/24vs. LSU

Penn State prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 198-59-1 in all games I have attended
                         - data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise noted
M is 127-44-1 in conference games
M is 166-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 vs. Penn State
M is 114-21 vs schools with animal based nicknames
M is 47-15-1 vs. schools who commonly include an adjective in the nickname
M is 17-3 when ranked #4
M is 145-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 20-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role with the team
M is 18-4 when facing a head coach who I have seen coach against a team other than Michigan
M is 51-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 116-38 vs. schools playing in their timezone
M is 24-6 vs. schools from the original 13 colonies
M is 24-7 in the 4th game I have seen in a season
M is 2-1 on September 24

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 42 PSU 21

Penn State Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo 44
Penn State Nittany Puma Concolor* 19

*the Nittany lion is named after the Mount Nittany and the lion actually refers to the mountain lion/cougar found in the area, so I used the "Nittany" with the scientific name for mountain lion

Colorado prediction based on historical data

 Michigan is 197-59-1 in all games I have attended
(all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 70-15 in non-conference games
M is 165-44-1 in games at Michigan Stadium
M is 113-21 vs. schools with Animal based nicknames
M is 0-1 vs. Colorado
M is 1-1 vs. the Pac-12
M is is 9-5 vs. the Pac-10/12
M is 6-3 vs. schools that have been a member of more than one conference in separate attended games
M is 19-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team
M is 82-21-1 vs. schools playing out of their times zone
M is 50-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 16-3 when ranked #4
M is 144-25-1 vs. unranked opponents
M is 2-1 on September 17
M is 11-6 in rainy weather - current forecast has 50% chance of rain
M is 10-4 vs. head coaches with alliterative names
M is  vs. 13-4 schools when their previous meeting was decided by a score in the last minute

It's easy when you look at the numbers
M 45
Colorado 17

Colorado Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo     40

Colorado Bison Bison  20

Hogs take the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy from the Frogs

For the first time since the 2012 Orange Bowl the jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy has left he Big 12 conference.

In a match up of old Southwest Conference foes, Arkansas went into Fort Worth and came away with a double overtime victory over TCU. Arkansas lead most of the way, but a 21 point 4th quarter by TCU moved the score from 20-7 Arkansas to 28-20 Horned Frogs.
The Hogs TD and two point conversion tied it up. A blocked field goal put the game into overtime.
TCU could only manage a field goal in the second OT so the Razorbacks TD meant the trophy was heading home to Fayetteville.
This is the third time Arkansas has taken the trophy. They beat Texas on 10/16/1965 and rattled off 5 more victories before losing to LSU in the1966 Cotton Bowl. The only other time they won the trophy was the epic upset over eventual National Champ, LSU on 11/23/2007. They fell again in the Cotton Bowl to Missouri in their next game.
They also lost in trophy games against USC in September of 1973, Duke in October of 1974, Baylor in November of 1991, USC again in September of 2005, Auburn in October of 2007, Florida in October of 2009 and Alabama in September of 2010. Their overall record in trophy games is 8-9.

Looking ahead to the Razorbacks schedule:
9/17 vs. Texas State (in Fayetteville)
9/24 vs. Texas A&M (in Dallas)
10/1 vs. Alcorn State (in Little Rock)
10/8 vs. Alabama (in Fayetteville)
10/15 vs. Mississippi (in Fayetteville)
10/22 at Auburn
11/5 vs. Florida (at Fayetteville)
11/12 vs. LSU (at Fayetteville)
11/19 at Mississippi State
11/25 at Missouri

Lots of home games for Arkansas - their website lists the Texas A&M game as a home game in Dallas. I'm guessing that may be a mistake, but it isn't a true road game either way.

If they get by the game in Jerryworld, I don't think they'll get by Alabama, even at home.

Central Florida Prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 196-59-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 25-6 in the second attended games of the season

M is 69-15 vs. non-conference opponents

M is 1-0 vs. schools from the American Athletic

M is 164-44-1 in Michigan Stadium

M is 60-24-1 vs. schools with Human-ish mascots

M is 18-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 77-21-1 in noon starts

M is 115-38 vs schools playing in their timezone

M is 1-2 on September 10

M is 12-1 when ranked #5

M is 143-25-1 vs. unranked opponents

M is 31-5 when the next lost would make the total losses attended a number evenly divisible by 10

M is 1-0 vs. head coaches named Scott

M is 1-1 vs. head coaches with weather based names 

M is 13-4-1 vs. schools a niece or nephew of mine has attended/is attending

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 42

UCF 10

Central Florida Prediction

Michigan Gulo Gulo 43
Central Florida Cabelleros* 11

*For animal/plant mascots, I am using the scientific name.  For non-animals, I am using the mascot name in a relevant language.  Last week, naturally, I used Hawaiian.  For Central Florida, I decided to use Spanish because of the large Spanish-speaking population in the area.

jiMpossible-sarcasMike trophy outlook for 2016

Back in January I said there would be an update soon... I guess 8 months is soon.

TCU comes into the 2016 season as the trophy holder after an amazing comeback over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl.

They open the season tomorrow night hosting South Dakota State. I'll admit I haven't done much scouting on the Jackrabbits, but I'm thinking TCU will pull this one out.

The remainder of their schedule is:
vs. Arkansas on 9/10
vs. Iowa State 9/17
at SMU 9/23
vs. Oklahoma 10/1
at Kansas 10/8
at WVU 10/22
vs. Texas Tech 10/29
at Baylor 11/5
vs. Oklahoma St 11/19
at Texas 11/25
vs. Kansas St 12/3

The Arkansas game next week might be a close one. If the Frogs get past the Hogs, they'll be favorites until they play Oklahoma.

Chances of the trophy coming to the B1G this season:
A quick look makes it seem it will have to be in a bowl game.

Hawai'i prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 195-59-1 in all games I have attended (all data is based on games I have attended unless otherwise stated)

M is 35-5 in the first attended games of the season

M is 17-4 when it is actually their first game of the season

M is 68-15 vs. non-conference opponents

M is 4-1 vs. schools from the Mountain West Conference

M is 163-44-1 in Michigan Stadium

M is 59-24-1 vs. schools with Human-ish mascots

M is 17-5 with Jim Harbaugh playing a leading role on the team

M is 76-21-1 in noon starts

M is 80-21-1 vs schools playing out of their timezone

M is 4-0 on September 3

M is 21-2 with a QB starting for the first time

M is 5-0 when ranked #7

M is 142-25-1 vs. unranked opponents

M is 30-5 when the next lost would make the total losses attended a number evenly divisible by 10

M is 2-1 vs. head coaches named Nick

It's easy when you look at the numbers

M 45
H 3