Friday, September 30, 2016

Wisconsin prediction based on historical data

Michigan is 199-59-1 in all games I have attended -1
                                  - Data is only for games I have attended unless otherwise stated
M is 128-44-1 in conference games
M is 167-44-1 in Michigan Stadium
M is 9-2 vs. Wisconsin
M is 7-3 when playing a team for the 12th time -2
M is 115-21 vs. schools with animal based nicknames
M is 71-17 vs. schools with mascots deemed lighter than a Wolverine
M is 18-3 when ranked #4
M is 4-3 vs. teams ranked #8 (3 straight losses)
M is 7-8 when both teams are ranked in the top 10 (3 straight losses)
M is 21-5 when Jim Harbaugh plays a leading role for the team
M is 52-23 in 3:30 kickoffs
M is 22-10 in the 3rd consecutive game with the same kickoff time
M is 82-21-1 vs. schools playing out of their timezone
M is 12-6 in games that it rained/sleeted (right now there is a 15-25% chance of rain during the game)
M is 3-1 vs. head coaches that share their first name with one of my brothers-in-law
M is 16-2 when I attended a tailgate/go blue brunch before the game
M is 21-10 in the 5th game I have attended in a season
M is 3-0 on October 1

It's easy when you look at the numbers:

M 31
W 17

1M will either get my 200th victory or 60th loss. My 100th victory was the 35-31 victory over Illinois in Champaign in 2000. That brought M's record in games I'd attended to 100-20-1. So if my prediction holds my second 100 will have taken 139 games or ~15 more games than 100 victories. M has won 929 games over all - so I have witnessed 21.4% of all their wins.
2Wisconsin is currently the 12th most common opponent I've seen Michigan play. Only the three most recent additions to the conference have been Michigan's opponent less. I have seen M play both Penn State and Notre Dame more than Wisconsin, even though I have been to two games at Camp Randall.


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